Economics

[Carlobrand]

A recurring question in my mind relates to the game economy. Getting a feel for the tax base and the actual volume of trade can help paint a better picture of the players' milieu, but it can be difficult to infer that information from the available data.

CT Books 1-3 offer a worm's eye view of interstellar economics, with a list of prices, a brief statement on living expenses, some information on ship crew wages and starship economics from the point of view of the ship captain, and a trade system that hints at an interstellar economy based on the traditional supply and demand paradigm. Book 4 delivers a bit of information on what the soldier boys (and girls) earn. Book 5 changes the ship cost paradigm without speaking to economics. Book 7 delivers an alternate abstracted merchanting system which ends up painting a vague picture of an economy in which all trade flows downhill, tech-level-wise, with no clear explanation on how the folk at the bottom of it all manage to pay for that. However, CT does not offer the kind of details that let you see the wider picture.

Trillion Credit Squadron offers an interesting but simplistic picture with its use of local credits varying in value by the world's tech level - interesting because there's some potential to use it to resolve a High Guard problem with the cost of low tech ships (though the rules don't specifically permit that - you have to use it as the basis of a house rule). However, it's geared to support the wargame: it is to economics pretty much as checkers is to infantry combat.

Striker offers an interesting economic picture, with its per capita GNP varying with tech level and then a local credit value varying by tech level on top of that. It seems to invert the Book 7 paradigm in that low tech military hardware imported from low tech worlds is cheaper on a higher tech world than the locally produced equivalent, creating a possible market for - say - importing TL13 laser rifles to a TL15 world (damn unions!). Has the same potential for addressing the Book-5 problem as TCS - and then some: if you apply the same values to shipbuilding, it actually encourages companies to buy the lowest tech ship that will do the job. However, the per capita and credit devaluation scheme are clearly simplified to promote ease of play; it wasn't crafted to represent the milieu economy, though it could serve for that role in a pinch.

GURPS (Far Trader) crafted an economic scheme that was meant to describe interstellar economics. It's a little complex, but the underlying concepts are firmly grounded in economic theory - though the execution in spots may leave something to be desired. The per capita GNP at the early techs looks a lot like Striker's, though comparison is difficult because I don't have much data on prices - you can lead an "ordinary" life in CT on Cr400/mo, while the same in GURPS is I think Cr600, but I don't know if the GURPS buck has the same value the Imperial credit. (The fact that one was published in the late '90's while the other dates from the early '80's might have led to some slight differences) At higher levels, GNP does not rise quite so steeply and quickly as Striker does, with the result that the high tech credit is only worth about ten times the value of the TL6 credit, instead of 20 times. Ships are cheaper and shipping is cheaper, but it still might be possible to import the GURPS GNP and other economics into CT with some adjustments.

How do other games - Mongoose, T4, and T5 - do it? Do they lay out a picture of the larger economy? Do they even mention a GNP or other information, or is it entirely worm's eye view?

 

[aramis]

On the book 5 score...

Using book rates (and no increase in paid cost for distance)...
J1 makes money starting at the 400Td hull at all Jump TL's.
J2 loses money at flat rate per jump pricing at all hull sizes, but can make money if using the non-canonical 3 jumps per month cycle or by speculation.
J3 only becomes able to turn a profit on the 3 jump cycle as well, but it's a hair thin even then at TL13-14.
J4 can make a hair thin profit on 3 jumps/month but only at TL15.

The "sweet spot" sizes are 1000Td and above 5000 Td, due to a combination of factors (mostly involving crew).

Note that, for reference

Bk2-81, 2Jn/mo schedule, book rates:
J1 makes a profit at 200Td-5000Td
J2 makes a profit at 3000Td - 5000Td
J3+ loses money

Bk 2-81, 3Jn/Mo schedule
J1 on a 100Td hull is just outside profitability
J3 is profitable around 3000-4000Td (5000Td cannot get J3 under Bk 2)
J4 is not profitable for cargo even at 3Jn, but passengers can be.
J5 is prohibitive, and can only be done at all on ships 400-2000 Td

Bk2-77, 2Jn/Mo, book rates.
J1 profitable from 200Td up.
J2 profitable at 800Td and 2000Td to 5000Td
J3 and up not profitable

Bk2-77, 3Jn/Mo, book rates
J1 is passenger only for 100Td, fully profitable elsewise
J2 at all tonnages above 100 is profitable
J3 is passenger only for 600Td to 1000Td, and cargo from 2000-4000Td
J4 is Passenger only and only at 3000Td.

 

[Carlobrand]

Thanks, Aramis, that's useful, but I'm exploring the macroeconomics. Do you know if Mongoose or the new T5 do anything like the GURPS macroeconomic view?

I'm looking at GURPS, and I'm liking the per capita they use, though I haven't the foggiest how they calculated those odd numbers. I still struggle with the way both GURPS and CT impoverish the low tech worlds. I'm fine with it at TL4 and below - most of the economy at that TL is invisible to the tax collector: farmhands and ranch-hands being sheltered and fed by their employers and earning a small income on top of the room and board, a lot of barter economy. I struggle with it at TL5 and 6, but GURPS seems to handle that end a bit better.

Here's a GURPS/Striker comparison. A little tricky because I'm not 100% sure of the value of the GURPS dollar vs the CT credit, but it's a starting point. GURPS has a different TL arrangement; I translated it into CT. Striker figure is inflation-adjusted - the local income in TL15 Imperial credits. Some shortcuts: I assumed a Striker low tech A port, or the best port for TL5/6, since those worlds can't host an A port.

	G-FT	Striker
TL	Per Capita	Per Capita	Tech boon
5	895	?80	Industrialization and mechanization
6	895	?320	Fission and electronics
7	1430	1200	Early Fusion (HG) reduces energy costs by 99%, m-drive (HG) opens space travel
8	2290	2400	Computers, Early robotics
9	3660	4000	Gravitics
10	3660	6000
11	3660	8400
12	5860	11,200	Low autonomous robotics
13	5860	14,400	High autonomous robotics
14	9375	18,000	?
15	15,000	22,000	?

GURPS moves with the idea that a loaf of bread is a loaf of bread: in other words, if you value a loaf of bread at X, then this is what people need to survive, and the differences between local economies can be seen as differences in productivity. I factored in the Striker inflation bit so everything could be compared in the same credits. It seems clear that GURPS is looking for tech advantages that have a big productivity impact - seems to be how they organize their tech levels, so their TL9 for example covers our TL9, 10, and 11. I noted those tech level boons that seemed likely to be behind the productivity boosts; they seem to line up with GURPS thinking, but I might be missing something in the TL9-11 range, and I can't think of what tech at TL 14-15 might make for big productivity changes. I considered the fusion plant advances, but amortizing the cost of the plant only cuts power costs by a few pennies on the megawatt-hour for the TL9, 13, and 15 improvements; they make a big difference in ships but not so much on the ground.

Anyway, they seem to match up workably well in the TL7-9 range, then GURPS slows down and Striker keeps arcing up between their fixed Cr2000/TL boosts and their fixed 10%/TL inflation adjustment. I actually like the GURPS spread better.

 

[aramis]

The only recent macroecon data is in t5.

 

[Carlobrand]

The only recent macroecon data is in t5.

Good, I'll bump that one up on my wish list - which is sadly rather long.

 

[Marchand]

T5 has an Economic Extension to the UWP, which is lifted from T4 Pocket Empires. PE tells you how to use the data in a strategy game, but T5 doesn't tell you how to use the data.

Overall though, I think trying to make any sense out of the economics of the OTU is quite a heroic endeavour!

If you're interested in what are the implications for business behaviour in terms of sparking adventure ideas then The Traveller Adventure would pretty much cover it, I'd have thought?

If it's more "what is the standard of living on this world", GURPS Space might be a useful reference. It calculates world GDP and derives an average standard of living in GURPS terms - Broke, Struggling etc.

There was a snippet buried somewhere in T4 called "what is poverty at TL12?" that might give a bit more flavour.

 

[Timerover51]

For lower Tech Level planets, the CIA World Factbook comes in handy for a quick starter. I have accumulated data on the Victorian standard and cost of living, along with having some cost of living data from 1919 for the US.

During the Victorian period in England, a bare minimum standard of living for a family of 5, two adults and three children, was determined to be 75 Pounds Sterling a year, or about 30 shillings per week. That stayed the wage of unskilled farm laborers in the UK up through the 1940s.

For figuring wage equivalents, I use a value of 200 Imperial Credits per ounce of gold, as that value is used in Research Station Gamma and a couple of other places, or if I allow some for inflation, 400 Imperial Credits per ounce of gold. That seems to work pretty well for metallic-backed currencies and currency conversion for my purposes. Up to 1934, the US Dollar was pegged at $20.67 per ounce, and the UK Pound was worth $4.875 cents. I round to $5.00 to keep the math simple.