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Random thought and general silliness

We used to have a poster in the office here which was supposed to discourage people from smoking. Among the statistics, it showed that smokers are LESS likely to be murdered than non-smokers ! They also have a lower risk of dieing in a car crash.

The stats were that for every 1,000 smokers (let's say) 100 will die of some smoking-related illness (I forget the real number). All other causes of death only apply to the remaining 90%, and are therefore 10% lower than for non-smokers.

"He uses statistics the way a drunk uses lamp-posts, not for illumination but for support".
 
Hm. Actually, I'd expect the chance of being murdered to be almost unaffected. Homicide disproportionately affects the young, smoking-related problems are unlikely to cause death before the 40s.

The key question should be death rate from various causes, though -- what's the chance per year of dying due to various causes. I suspect that smoking is fairly strictly additive there.
 
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