Really, really, large scale strategy

[Madmax]

The 3rd Imperium is in deep doo-doo, and has been for a LOOONG time. Well before Virus, well before the Black War, well before the Rebellion.
In fact, on the scale of thousands of years, the 3rd Imperium, The Rule of Man, and the Ziru Sirka (Villani Empire) were all completely doomed from the moment they were founded. Oh they might last for a while, have their ups and downs, but, in the fullness of time, whichever incarnation of a Humaniti empire survives in the short run will be destroyed and gobbled up by the Zhodani, Vargr, K'Kree, Hivers, Solomani, and Aslan. Perhaps even, to a lesser extent, by the Darrians and other minor races.
Why?
Really simple: Geography!
The 3rd Imperium, or any alternate polity occupying the central region of Chartered Space, is surrounded on all sides by competing polities. Even before 1105 it had already reached the practical limit of expansion. There was still room for internal growth, but even that would have sharp limits.
Contrast to that the fact that all the surrounding Major Species/Polities have virtually unlimited room for expansion away from the Humaniti sphere. (Note that I am counting the Solomani as separate from the main Humaniti.)
It is unavoidable that these other polities will expand and expand, while the central Humaniti region remains trapped, and unable to grow at all.
As the other species grow stronger and stronger, but Humaniti reaches a state of diminishing returns, it is inevitable that the Humaniti sphere will be overwhelmed and divided up between its neighbors and cease to exist in any practical sense.
I might add that this is an inevitable result of the game using a 2D map. Such a situation would be an order of magnitude less likely to occur in a 3D map.
'In game' the Imperial Authorities, whoever they might be, must be aware of this long term threat, and must have many sleepless nights trying to think of some way to counter it, but to no avail.
The Rebellion, Virus, and even the Empress wave, make no real difference to this basic fact of the geography of Charted Space. They might speed up, or slow down, the process, but the end result will be the same.
Was this all some intentional scheme on the part of Yaskodray?
Anybody got any ideas how to deal with this issue in game, and perhaps allow the Imperial Authorities a little shut eye?

 

[Xerxeskingofking]

The 3rd Imperium is in deep doo-doo, and has been for a LOOONG time. Well before Virus, well before the Black War, well before the Rebellion.
In fact, on the scale of thousands of years, the 3rd Imperium, The Rule of Man, and the Ziru Sirka (Villani Empire) were all completely doomed from the moment they were founded. Oh they might last for a while, have their ups and downs, but, in the fullness of time, whichever incarnation of a Humaniti empire survives in the short run will be destroyed and gobbled up by the Zhodani, Vargr, K'Kree, Hivers, Solomani, and Aslan. Perhaps even, to a lesser extent, by the Darrians and other minor races.
Why?
Really simple: Geography!
The 3rd Imperium, or any alternate polity occupying the central region of Chartered Space, is surrounded on all sides by competing polities. Even before 1105 it had already reached the practical limit of expansion. There was still room for internal growth, but even that would have sharp limits.
Contrast to that the fact that all the surrounding Major Species/Polities have virtually unlimited room for expansion away from the Humaniti sphere. (Note that I am counting the Solomani as separate from the main Humaniti.)
It is unavoidable that these other polities will expand and expand, while the central Humaniti region remains trapped, and unable to grow at all.
As the other species grow stronger and stronger, but Humaniti reaches a state of diminishing returns, it is inevitable that the Humaniti sphere will be overwhelmed and divided up between its neighbors and cease to exist in any practical sense.
I might add that this is an inevitable result of the game using a 2D map. Such a situation would be an order of magnitude less likely to occur in a 3D map.
'In game' the Imperial Authorities, whoever they might be, must be aware of this long term threat, and must have many sleepless nights trying to think of some way to counter it, but to no avail.
The Rebellion, Virus, and even the Empress wave, make no real difference to this basic fact of the geography of Charted Space. They might speed up, or slow down, the process, but the end result will be the same.
Was this all some intentional scheme on the part of Yaskodray?
Anybody got any ideas how to deal with this issue in game, and perhaps allow the Imperial Authorities a little shut eye?

yhea, the communication difficulties that so plague every multi-system government in Charted Space enforce a kind of size limit on them, as after a certain size and travel distance form the capital, the centres of power become so remote form the frontier sectors, they start to loose relevance to the people their and the local power structures start to seek independence. for example, the American colonies, the various dominions of the British empire, Indonesia, etc.

This has already happened to the 3rd Imperium with the Solomani Rim War, and barring some significant change of the basic technological paradigm*, it will remain true for all the surrounding powers as well. the Zhodani explicitly stopped their expansion into the Marches over a thousand years before the 1100s, in order to stop form expanding beyond coherence. as far as I know, the K'kree and Hivers have also been more or less the same size for hundreds of years. the Aslan and Vargr are expanding, but they both are so disunified at a species level that their expansion is not a threat at a strategic level in terms of "overwhelming numbers" because they cannot bring those numbers together in a unified polity (though it can be a threat in a local sense).

if any of the unified powers attempted a "out-grow them" strategy, if might work in the short term to expand them, but eventually, the border regions would start going their own way ("you want me to pay taxes to build a navy to fight a threat that would take 3 years of constant travel just to reach me? I'd rather pay for the creation proper starports here!"). thus, they would be funding the creation of the very states that would hem them in, in the same way that the 3i has with the Solomani Sphere.


* the only changes relevant to this would be a increase in travel speed or a method of fast information transfer at interstellar distances like a Ansible, neither of which are part of any of the over TL15 tech level charts I have seen for at least 3 or 4 tech levels, or hundreds to thousands of years into the 3i future.

 

[Condottiere]

If the subsectors were compacted into three dimensional sphere from a two dimensional plane, it would compress internal lines of communication, so allow a faster reaction from the Capital to events on the borders, unless the game developers started adding a great deal of filler systems to maintain travel times.

If standard system distances were maintained, Travellers would also have a great deal of more options in which direction to jump to, and militaries would need to spread themselves out thinner to cover more territory along the borders.

 

[mike wightman]

The Third Imperium could expand to Spinward across a two sector front if it had the will and the resources to do so - it has neither.

Spinward Marches into Foreven and then Far Frontiers, then you are into 'open galaxy',
Trojan Reach into The Beyond and then the Vanguard reaches and then 'open galaxy'

You would have to deal with small pocket empires, Zhodani interference, Aslan interference but if the Imperium had a concerted effort they could have a two sector wide corridor into open galaxy.

 

[Nathan Brazil]

Historically this was not inevitable.

Rimward expansion was always a possibilty and would have continued to be the case if that one Rule of Man cruiser had not misjumped into the Aslan home system. That one pivotal mistake allowed them the Aslan opportunity to learn Jump Drive faster than they might otherwise develop. They had already had one minor nuclear war and were working their way to another one at the time. The appearance of the alien ship stopped the wars long enough to reproduce Jump Drives, releiving population pressure. In the mean time The Long Night would have still occurred. The formation of the Third Imperium would have continued.

It is not known how long the Aslan would have taken to develop Jump otherwise, but even a delay of one or two hundred years would have put the Imperium in a better "geographic" position. Initial Aslan expansion happened in the Long Night. By the time conflict with the The Imperium occurred, it was already strong enough in the early days to secure a peace that the Hierate as a whole honors keeping the second sons from sending colonizing fleets coreward, until the Rebellion. Delays would have meant a smaller Hierate, a larger Imperium.

Or the Aslan might have blown themselves up.

 

[mike wightman]

Another way for Imperial expansion would be the deliberate policy of multi-generational assimilation.

There are several polities within the Solomani Confederation that are pro-Imperial and conduct trade with the Third Imperium. Give them incentives to swap sides.

The Aslan have shown that they can be Imperialised - all you need to do is give them land grants in exchange for fealty and they will be Imperial within a generation. You then use these Imperial Aslan to make inroads into the rather chaotic Aslan Heirate itself.

The Vargr states could be conquered, bought out whatever.

Eventually the Third Imperium would be remembered only as the progenitor of the First Galactic Hegemony...

 

[whartung]

The biggest issue with this thesis is simply the motivations to expand.

People expand in order to capture resources. So that implies that the Imperium needs to expand because it's short on resources.

And, frankly, given the "modern" technologies and capabilities, on top of the "infinite energy" (the fundamental resource necessary), it's hard to fathom that the Imperium has a want of anything.

Finally, the Imperium, with all of its in-built inefficiencies, is still a sleeping giant. If a resource expansion is necessary, the Imperium can wake up and just take.

I used to play Risk that way. I'd consolidate on one area. Expand out enough to get a card, maintain my continent bonus, but otherwise just stack inside of a thin border. Someone had to come knocking, and when they did, they'd awaken the beast.

 

[Xerxeskingofking]

given the huge room for internal investment within imperial borders, its would almost certainly by a better strategy for the 3i to invest any "colonial" efforts into "2nd wave" movments to build up existing member states, or into funding tech level and industrial development in any of the 1,000s of worlds in the 3i that are mid-pop, mid tech planets that just need investment to become hi tech, useful contributors to the 3I, and at a controllable distance form the capital.

And, frankly, given the "modern" technologies and capabilities, on top of the "infinite energy" (the fundamental resource necessary), it's hard to fathom that the Imperium has a want of anything.

as a aside, I have heard it seriously suggested that, for all practical purposes, the economies of some 1st world nations of modern earth are in a situation where the basic foundation of the classical economics concept of supply and demand is effectively reversed.

the classic supply and demand problem is normally phrased as "we have unlimited wants, but only limited means to realise those wants", but in practice, many large companies are actually facing the inverse problem: "we have the ability to produce as much of a given product as we choose, (effectively infinite wants), but their is only so much demand for our products in the world (ie limited wants)".

the example given is that while Ford motor car company is currently producing, say, 10 million cars a year, it could with (relatively) little investment scale up to 20 million, but their simply aren't 20 million people a year looking to buy a Ford, so they don't make that many. They can supply enough cars to effectively meet demand, or more likely slightly lower than actual demand so as to prevent waste, but could in theory produce a lot more if demand rose for whatever reason.

I imagine the 3i is largely the same. It has truly mind-blowning economic strength, and could produce a terrifying number of warships in short order if it felt the need to. But, realistically, it has never faced a existential threat that would motivate it to go total war mode. the only time it does so is the 2nd civil war/Shattered Imperium, when even the shrunken, un-united fragments of the 3i are still able to face off against the other major polities on near-peer terms.

 

[mike wightman]

The Imperium has the technology to exploit the resources of an entire system with ease.

It has the technology to build habitats in space that could be home to trillions of people within a a single system.

Yet for all the works of canon there is little evidence that it has done so. Instead it appears to restrict planetary populations to their home planet, stifles planets from developing the resources of their own systems and slows down technological transfer - why is every world not at least TL9?

It has the military and economic might to impose governmental structures on member worlds and improve the living conditions of many 'Imperial citizens' yet chooses not to.

 

[BackworldTraveller]

The Imperium has the technology to exploit the resources of an entire system with ease.

It has the technology to build habitats in space that could be home to trillions of people within a a single system.

Yet for all the works of canon there is little evidence that it has done so. Instead it appears to restrict planetary populations to their home planet, stifles planets from developing the resources of their own systems and slows down technological transfer - why is every world not at least TL9?

It has the military and economic might to impose governmental structures on member worlds and improve the living conditions of many 'Imperial citizens' yet chooses not to.

If you grant power to the masses, the elites are no longer...elite! A Duke rules billions and does so without effective control or opposition. Since power tends to corrupt, such absolute power leads to the third imperium.

 

[whartung]

Yet for all the works of canon there is little evidence that it has done so. Instead it appears to restrict planetary populations to their home planet, stifles planets from developing the resources of their own systems and slows down technological transfer - why is every world not at least TL9?

If you grant power to the masses, the elites are no longer...elite! A Duke rules billions and does so without effective control or opposition. Since power tends to corrupt, such absolute power leads to the third imperium.

It's an interesting phenomenon. You'd think that the Leadership would be promoting growth and economic expansion if for no other reason to than to simply boost taxes and revenue. And you'd think there would be pressure from above to do just that.

At the same time, Dukes et al are lazy. How big does the palace need to be. And lording over all this stuff takes time and energy.

They have enough trillions of Cr as it is, and as long as the people are not rioting, status quo has its value.

 

[Tiikeri]

The 3I's Long Range Plan

Let's start with the assumption that all information given in canon is accurate, that the leadership of all polities are rational actors who are motivated by national self-interest, and that no one is holding an Idiot Ball.
https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/IdiotBall

The 3rd Imperium is in deep doo-doo, and has been for a LOOONG time... destroyed and gobbled up by the Zhodani, Vargr, K'Kree, Hivers, Solomani, and Aslan.

Deep trouble, not really. The Imperium's only aggressive neighbors are the Aslan, Vargr, and Solomani. The Zhodani's wars are to check Imperial expansion toward the Consulate.

Really simple: Geography!

The 3I is in a vulnerable position, but only if the other polities act in a highly coordinated fashion, which they don't and have no reason to besides 'Let's get Impy." This doesn't even include the difficulty of coordinating battle plans over sectors between different species.

In the end it would shape up to be the Hierate and the SolCon with a Vargr sideshow against the 3I. The fronts would be the Spinward Marches, Daibei, Coreward raiding, and the Solomani Rim, with the aggressors banking on the IN dispersing its fleets so that their inferior fleets can defeat the IN in detail. This places their success or failure in the hands of the IN. This is a bad strategy, and the war planners of aggressors would know it.

The 3rd Imperium, or any alternate polity occupying the central region of Chartered Space, is surrounded on all sides by competing polities. Even before 1105 it had already reached the practical limit of expansion...

The 3I has not reached the practical limit of expansion, it has reached significant obstacles to that expansion. It could conquer the 8 sectors between it and the K'Kree, and pick up Reavers' Deep Spinward of Daibei. That's 9 new sectors added to the 3I's current 21 full/majority sectors, an increase of 42% without fighting a war against any of the other major polities. The 3I could conquer another 12 sectors of human client states and minor races to the Spinward of the Spinward Marches, so the 3I could more than double its territory without a war against a major polity, and have unlimited access for expansion to Spinward.

After digesting these 9 new sectors, the 3I could then turn its might against Mendan, Amdukan, and Arzul, and turn them into industrial centers and staging areas for the conquest of the wild frontier of Ktiin'gzat and Mugheent't. The 3I now has a wide open corridor 3 sectors wide to unlimited expansion to the Coreward and Trailing.

Contrast to that the fact that all the surrounding Major Species/Polities have virtually unlimited room for expansion away from the Humaniti sphere.

It is unavoidable that these other polities will expand and expand, while the central Humaniti region remains trapped...

No, the 3I just needs to overcome some challenging obstacles to create an access corridor to Coreward and Trailing, and it already has access to Spinward. The only polities making a concerted effort to expand are the Solomani and the Aslan.

As the other species grow stronger and stronger, but Humaniti reaches a state of diminishing returns, it is inevitable that the Humaniti sphere will be overwhelmed and divided up between its neighbors and cease to exist in any practical sense.

It is absolutely not inevitable. Even if the 3I did not expand, it would continue to increase its technological edge and industrial base. Its rivals would have to triple in size to threaten it, and it would still have the technological edge.

Anybody got any ideas how to deal with this issue in game, and perhaps allow the Imperial Authorities a little shut eye?

THE LONG LONG LONG LONG LONG RANGE PLAN

MISSION:

Secure the availability for unlimited expansion and ensure the 3I maintains unmatched quantitative and qualitative military, technological, industrial, and economic capability over all other major polities combined.

OBJECTIVES:

Conquer, colonize, and annex Ktiin'gzat and Mugheent't sectors to secure unlimited access for expansion to Coreward and Trailing.

Conquer, colonize, and annex the Trojan Reach - Mavzog Corridor to secure unlimited access for expansion to Spinward.

THE PLAN:

Phase I, Preparation:

Initiate an R&D and industrial development plan to make TL 16 the standard throughout the Imperial armed forces and then throughout the Imperium, and continue R&D to achieve TL 17.

Initiate the long term increase of industrial capacity to support military requirements for the future conquest and colonization of 25 target sectors.

Initiate a population increase program to enlarge the military recruiting pool and provide populations for mass colonization.

Subvert Vargr polities in the Meshan sector so that they may be used against Mendan sector and hostile Vargr factions.

Subvert Vargr factions along the Coreward border to turn them against other Vargr.

Reinforce the Domain of Deneb as a fortress domain and develop it as a forward industrial base and staging area for the assimilation and annexation of the 12 sectors from Trojan Reach Spinward to Chiep Zhez and Mavuzog.

Reinforce Antares Sector as a fortress sector and develop it as a forward industrial base and staging area for the conquest and annexation of Mendan, Amdukan, and Arzul.

Reinforce Daibei Sector as a defensive bulwark against eventual Aslan aggression.

Develop a wide ranging intelligence network throughout target sectors.

Infiltrate and subvert populations and governments within target sectors.

Initiate subtle colonization through immigration over time in target sectors.

Phase I, Diplomatic Initiatives (concurrent with Preparation).

Acknowledge current Zhodani-Imperial border.

Acknowledge current Solomani-Imperial border. Subtly make the Solomani aware of increasing Imperial frustration with Aslan aggression. Play on Solomani anti-alien sentiment to drive a wedge between the Aslan and the Solomani. Play on shared Solomani/Imperial heritage to decrease Solomani hostility between the Imperium and the Solomani Confederation.

Increase trade links with the Solomani Confederation.

Build positive relationships with the most stable of the Vargr polities along the Coreward border.


Phase II, Construction and Staging

Build invasion fleets under a variety of plausible excuses such as anti-pirate duty and the protection of Imperial citizens living outside the borders of the Imperium.

Assemble assault armies, occupation forces, and planetary development elements to prepare conquered worlds for follow-on colonial populations.

Propagandize the Imperial population to motivate them to support military action against the aggressive violent Aslan to Spinward and the treacherous raiding Vargr to Coreward. Generate media programming featuring bold dynamic Imperials conquering strange new profitable worlds, defeating villainous non-human sophonts, and improving Charted Space by bringing it under the benign rule of the Imperium.

Set up world development and exploitation contracts with the appropriate commercial entities.

Phase III, Invasion:

Create a pretext for war against the Vargr Coreward of Antares.

Create a pretext for war against the Aslan in the Trojan Reach.

Invade target sectors under a variety of excuses, like anti-piracy actions, border conflicts, assistance requests from client factions, Aslan attacks on innocent worlds, protection of commercial shipping, restoration of order, etc.

Phase IV, Ongoing Conquest, Occupation, and Annexation:

Import millions of Imperial citizens to conquered worlds using a variety of incentives. Create new noble titles and fiefs, and let it be known that they will be granted to those who distinguish themselves in the service of the Emperor during this great tide of history. Award impressive land grants and tax breaks to soldiers who will settle conquered worlds. Offer criminals freedom and land if they will voluntarily settle conquered worlds.

Develop industrial centers in the conquered sectors to support the armed forces and the new colonial populations.

Buy off hostile factions like independent worlds and pocket empires with lucrative contracts to supply the ongoing colonization efforts.

Colonize, develop, and annex the new conquered sectors.


CONTINGENCIES:

War with the Aslan Hierate:

Make a permanent peace with the Solomani Confederation by ceding the Solomani Rim to the Confederation and relocating all non-Solomani to the new colonies to the Spinward and Coreward. Betray the Vegans for the Greater Good (tm). Make common cause with the Solomani against the 'alien' Aslan. Conquer Reavers' Deep, Ealiyasiyw, and Hlakhoi from the fortress sector of Daibei, securing the Rimward flank of the Spinward conquests. Devastate Kyusu and the Dark Nebula sector, then cede it to the Solomani. Allow the Solomani a free hand in Ustral Quadrant sector and encourage them to expend their strength tearing off sectors from the Hierate. Make conciliatory noises to the Aslan, pointing at the Solomani as the primary aggressors against the Hierate. Play the Solomani and the Aslan against each other so that they will not form a united front against the 3I for centuries to come.

War with the Zhodani Consulate.

Conduct a holding action and make diplomatic noises about maintaining the current borders. Strike at Zhodani military bases and industrial targets to weaken their ability to project force, but always be willing to restore the status quo with an armistice. Steadfastly maintain non-aggression with respect to the Sword Worlds, and offer them their worlds back if they ally with the Imperium.