Trade potential

[rancke]

I'm trying to come up with a way to put a number on how likely a specific free trader (the PCs) are to find passengers, freight, and speculative cargo on a particular world.

So far I have the following:

Each world has a basic trade potential.

Population code:

0-2: 0
3-4: 1
5-6: 2
7: 3
8: 4
9: 5
10: 6

Starport type usually correlates to how much competition to expect from the
regular shipping lines.

A -2
B -1
C 0
D +1
E +2
X Special adventure only

(The referee should take special circumstances into account. For instance,
if a world is owned by a shipping company, competition is likely to be very
hard whatever the starport class.)

If someone on the crew is familiar with the world: +1
If someone on the world will be helping the crew: +1​

What I'm asking for is imput as to what other factors that should be taken into account (government? Law level? Tech level?) and as to whether the numeric value of the factors sounds reasonable.

Once I have a number, I'll come up with a way to use it. I haven't figured out precisely how. I've been thinking that one might evaluate the potential of a specific jump by adding the TP number of the two worlds, account for trade codes somehow, add one die and subtract one die to account for seasonal variation (new roll allowed if the ship stays on the world for five days) and subtract something if the jump is for a lower distance than the ship is able to perform.


Hans

 

[Carlobrand]

The big factor in trade is not just a given world's characteristics, but the characteristics of the next world over. Does this world have something that world wants bad enough to pay for the export, does that world have the means to pay, and is there enough supply and demand on the two respective worlds to make the trade a regular rather than occasional thing?

Seems to me the existing Traveller rules would serve as a rough skeleton around which to build what you want.

 

[Selandia]

rules as rough skeleton and dialectical relation: agree

Example: one of the greatest migratory flow late XIX early XX: Europe to USA
UPS of New Russia might read Dictatorial, but you are not given Pogrom, you might figure the equivalent of poverty in the cluster of planet called Eastern and Southern Europe by the Poor classification of the "worlds" and might even combine modifier with the political regime of the autocratic Romanov on the planet Russia and Habsbourg on planet Austro-Hungary. But how do you get that Russia was seeking to expel Jews while A-H tried to withold peoples of military age? How would the Irish situation shows up on the UP of planet Great Britain? How do Balkanized worlds UP show the specific situation of each country on the world?

Of course, you need Planet USA within J-1, with the freedom and economic opportunities to attract all those capable to reach its shores and a willingness to received migrant. When legal immigration was reduced in 1921 then virtually cut in 1924, post war Europe was not a garden of rose...yet the door was closed and all the huge modifiers associated with poverty and political instability became meaningless, without any visible change for the IISS' UP of planet USA.

Have fun

Selandia

 

[rancke]

The big factor in trade is not just a given world's characteristics, but the characteristics of the next world over. Does this world have something that world wants bad enough to pay for the export, does that world have the means to pay, and is there enough supply and demand on the two respective worlds to make the trade a regular rather than occasional thing?

Free traders exist in the cracks left by the regular traders and survive on the crumbs that the shipping companies ignore. If there is a route with major profit potential, odds are that there's a company exploiting it already. Or several competing companies.

What I'm trying to come up with is a measure for how likely a free trader is to find enough crumbs to make a jump pay for itself and perhaps even a bit over.

I do plan to account for trade codes, as mentioned in the last paragraph of my first post.

Seems to me the existing Traveller rules would serve as a rough skeleton around which to build what you want.

It would be nice if my system didn't clash horribly with the existing system, sure.


Hans

 

[Selandia]

I see your point better.

The liner will cover whatever basic trend exist, agreed. What characteristics of the UPS are likely to promote cracks, make big crumb fall off the table. Liner are cost effective because they are adapted to the fundamental trend of the markets, that suppose that they are not covering extreme situation, even if sometime recurent. They offer privilege rate to regular customers that reserve "TEU slots" (in container terms) and that cost them in flexibility.

Therefore, fluctuation or unusual requirements are what you are looking for.

Seasonnal fluctuation on AG world create need for extra tonnage at harvest time.

Seasonnal fluctuation will be associated with pilgrimage (inbound toward Theocratic regime) or tourism, outbound from Rich & Populous.

Special project cargo from industrial world ( More or less partially disassembled machinery or oddball industrial subassembly that would be too costly or impossible to assemble at destination) that are delivered to small demand world without regular line or with liners that won't take either odd dimention cargo or delivery of off schedule cargo (Sure that heavy lift Helicopter will fit my hold, all 50 % of it, but were do I put the cargo of my regular customers?) Industrial to Non Industrial or any Industrial High Tech to Low Tech are likely to have such demand, but so likely that large size world are likely to have specialized liners link. Small world destination make the cargo more likely.

Hazardous cargo, specially bulk, cannot be loaded on ships with passengers. J and M class subsidized liners wont take cargo of haz-mat, specially small delivery that won't justify refusing passengers. Industrial world may export, (as an example) very dangerous pesticide for terraforming, or simple pesticide anywere. You courd probably work on voyage charter rather than freight per ton on those. World with Corosive or Insidious Ath will supply orbital chemical plants that export to Industrial world using those in industrial process. They will use special liner on the ground of regularity of delivery, but an occasional odd ball client may require a small delivery in a different system through a free trader loaded with special drums.

time to go

have fun

Selandia