writing my own Twilight War Scenario

[Sir Brad]

OK back in the day I was doing a "Conflict Studies" degree (6 year Bachelors degree that I never finished), anyway one of our exercises was to wright War Scenarios ranging from Bush Wars right up to WWIII. anyway going trough some old papers I found the notes from a assignment where I projected the collapse of the EEC (yes it was that long ago) dragging the rest of the world in to WWIII. today I know a lot of what I was writing was Utter Balls (and back in the day I think I did to) and instead did my Paper for that term on the "War on Drugs" collapsing South America both economically and politically (got a Credit for the paper).

Any way reading the notes has given me an Idea on how Europe today could serve as a Flashpoint for a "Twilight War" and a global collapse.

anyone interested in hearing what I've got cooking in my brain?

 

[Thoth-Amon]

Sure. Don't hold back, and feel free to be wordy.

 

[aramis]

Two posts moderated for duration of moderator discussion... they started skirting into current politics.

after moderator discussion, either they will reappear or head off to the pit.

 

[Dead during chargen]

Absolutely interested. If we didn't have a morbid fascination with how the world could go to hell, we wouldn't be playing T2K, right?

 

[Sanjuro]

How about if a member of the Eurozone (for non-Europeans, that specifically means one of the countries using the Euro, rather than a national currency) defaulting on its debts, and causing the collapse of the currency;
after the richer nations refuse to bankroll the national payroll without cuts which are unacceptable to the bankrupt nation, the bankrupt nation immediately nationalises all assets in the country belonging to citizens of other -zone states.
As international confidence in the currrency collapses, other countries along the boundaries of the EU start to fear for their own economies. Several countries which are crossed by the gas pipelines from Russia threaten to cut off Germany's gas supply, unless their own economies are given aid. Instead of this triggering aid, however, this is seen as an act of war, either by Germany or by Russia, and the game is afoot...
How's that for a start to the discussion?

 

[Antony]

Also linked with the real world. In Australia the government is trying to impose an additional tax on mining company profits (basically any profit made above the long term bond rate - about 6%, is flat taxed at 40%) This is in addition to existing state royalties and federal company tax which would be marginly reduced.

The mining states ie Western Australia and Queensland are unhappy the more populace states, New South Wales and Victoria are happy since most of the revenue from such a tax will likely go there. In Western Australia our beloved premier (I'm in Western Australia) has mentioned the secession word if the state does not get its fair share.

Postulate the tax is imposed and most of the money raised foes to the populace states. Sometime in the future as Western Australia is short changed Western Australia unilaterally declares itse independence (the Australian Constitution in its preamble makes secession illegal), Queensland joins Western Australia, probably with the Northern Territory which has still not been granted statehood and is also resource rich. Eureka the potential for an Australian Civil War as the heavier populated but resource poor states start going broke with the revenue streams from the less populated but resource rich states being cut off and channelled into acquiring military infrastructure and personnel.

 

[mbrinkhues]

How about if a member of the Eurozone (for non-Europeans, that specifically means one of the countries using the Euro, rather than a national currency) defaulting on its debts, and causing the collapse of the currency;
after the richer nations refuse to bankroll the national payroll without cuts which are unacceptable to the bankrupt nation, the bankrupt nation immediately nationalises all assets in the country belonging to citizens of other -zone states.
As international confidence in the currrency collapses, other countries along the boundaries of the EU start to fear for their own economies. Several countries which are crossed by the gas pipelines from Russia threaten to cut off Germany's gas supply, unless their own economies are given aid. Instead of this triggering aid, however, this is seen as an act of war, either by Germany or by Russia, and the game is afoot...
How's that for a start to the discussion?

One has to remember that the current german army could not fight his way out of a bordello let alone do a Blitzkrieg on modern day "Poland". They lack tanks, training and a political cast that can perform harsh measures of ANY kind. So no war from germany this time. We might protect some safe regions but only during daylight since we also lack night-fighting abilities. Oh and please no air attacks. We just phased out our AA tanks and our 26 fighters are not fully ready yet

And depending on when you set the stuff the trans-baltic pipeline will be done preventing the above scenario. Not that the loss of Russian gas would be more than inconvenient in the short term and actually a benefit for employment in the long term. Not to mention all the poor greenies who'll comit suicide once the people vote "pro nuke/pro coal" after the first dark/cold winter

 

[Khan Trav]

Your euro meltdown could also take present day Greece situation. I have heard there may be other Eurozone nations in nearly as bad shape. Possibly Portugal? I am not sure which Eurozone nations have the hardware to push it's neighbors around. Surely with shared currency and generally liberal attitudes there is no chance of aggression. The meltdown might occur as a result of ethnic turmoil in several nations. Russia moved into South Ossetia to 'protect' Russian emigrants among the Georgian population in violation of Georgian Sovregnty and nobody tried to stop them. Your scenario could be round 2 of that with some ally of Georgia adding military force to the equasion. The US for example could have a small naval and or marine task force in the region that aggressively defends itself thus creating a rapid escalation which boils out of control...

 

[mbrinkhues]

If one absolutely wants a conflict starting in Europe the following might work:

+ Have the Turkish government take another step towards "conservative/muslim". Since even today the Army is not happy this will likely put them on "get ready to kick the government" mode (they did so quite a few times to protect the secular nature of Turkey). So the government decides to occupy the army by staging a nice little war or three

+ One potential source is Cyprus (fighting against Greece, last done in the 1970s), another would be the various states in the Ex-UdSSR that trace a lineage back to the Ottomans and have relations with Turkey post cold war. Maybe involve Armenia as an enemy (Azerbidjan as an ally)

+ With the Turkish military busy the Kurds might try a bit for independence. This WILL involve the Kurds in Iran, Iraq and Syria. This will spill to Germany where PKK terrorists have long been hiding here

This would put a sizeabel conflict in the region that (Ex-Yugoslavia, Palestine) is already unstabel AND would give a religious element so one can have it spread. Since the EU tries to play peacekeeper in Ex-Yugoslavia AND loyalties are split (Greece may be the member but Turkey is the better customer) AND there are large groups of both nations in various EU nations this will spill at least in the form of demonstrations and riots. And with the Gulf states involved the US and GB military will also become active

If you want added spice the <Censored by the Mods> is still a nationalistic bigmouth. Maybe have the Poles invade east german and occupy territory up to the Elbe once the germany "army" is busy running peace missions in the above conflicts and the Bundespolizei (Also our borderguards) are busy chasing PKK terrorists. This won't hurt Germany much (Nothing important there) but MIGHT! get it into re-armament setting the stage for a nice panzer-joust on the north german plains.

 

[Kilgs]

If one absolutely wants a conflict starting in Europe the following might work:
... SNIP

I highly recommend the following book for factions, conflicts in Yugo/Balkan/Turkey regions.

The Coming Anarchy, Robert Kaplan
http://www.amazon.com/Coming-Anarch...=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1276873884&sr=1-1

Actually, many of his books are great. The other easy reference is the Most Dangerous Places on Earth series of guidebooks.

 

[Thoth-Amon]

Share away. I look forward to reading it.

 

[Kilgs]

If one absolutely wants a conflict starting in Europe the following might work:

+ Have the Turkish government take another step towards "conservative/muslim". Since even today the Army is not happy this will likely put them on "get ready to kick the government" mode (they did so quite a few times to protect the secular nature of Turkey). So the government decides to occupy the army by staging a nice little war or three

Causing conflict in Turkey is pretty simple. Another reason for war there is that Turkey controls the water supply to most of the countries around it through a series of large dams.