Originally posted by Cad Lad:
Hey, I would love to here what your thoughts on the future of Oriflamme and its role in the Coaltion would be. If I ever feel like running a 'high-political space-thriller' I think I'd do it around the Oriflamme trying to make a move to become the dominant power in the coalition.
Okay, here goes.
The government of Oriflamme is a feudal technocracy, or government by interactions between (relatively) small self-interested groups, each of which derives its power from control over some special technical ability or equipment. (I realize that this definition is open to debate, but it's the one I use and will use in my considerations below) This system of government came about during the Hard Times and the Collapse, during which it probably evolved on the skeleton of the old public utility, education, police and military apparatus. The sky's falling, people don't know what to do, so the people who normally keep the lights and water going all get together and do what needs to be done. People not in these groups don't get a vote, but times are tough and the planet can't afford the luxury of democracy, which might fritter away irreplacable high-tech resources. (Or so the thinking goes)
End result: The lights stay on, sewage still gets carted away, some semblance of public order is maintained/restored, and most people accept the system for bringing some measure of stability in a troubled time.
Now, fast forward a couple of generations, to the end of the 1190s. The technarchs, who are descended from the original holders of technological power, maintain effective control over Oriflamme through economic and educational means. Economic, because they control access to any advanced technology left on the planet, which gives them an enormous amount of leverage over economic actors without such access- try being a doctor at TL-9 when the guy down the street is in service to a technarch and has relic TL-13 metabolics and the possibility of getting anagathics for his patients, or a construction contractor when your machines run on gasoline and the technarch's vassal has ones that need only a tenth as much gas, or run on water (fusion). As a result, they probably control most of Oriflamme's local (TL-9) production capability as well. When that much of a world's economy is in so few hands, the real global economy becomes exchanges between technarchs, rather than a market system where everyone is on equal footing given equal money, and the feudal system is essentially complete.
Educational, because while admission to schools which teach technical, scientific, and administration skills may be competitive in theory, blood relation to or the personal reccomendation of a technarch carries a huge amount of weight, and once those spaces are filled there's not much room left for those who aren't anybody and don't know anybody.
End result: Economic power is effectively concentrated in the hands of the technarchs, who inherited their positions from their ancestors, who were in positions of technological power before the Collapse. They perpetuate this control by limiting access to both high technology and the education needed to use it effectively, and then translate this economic power into political power. Ordinary citizens of Oriflamme enter into service with technarchs if they want access to high technology, and thus become part of the "favor economy" between technarchs. If they don't, they're basically trapped at TL-9 (or lower) and are going to be at a huge disadvantage relative to those not in service. IIRC, most Oriflammen are "in service" to one technarch or another, which probably explains the system's longevity- for all that it works tremendously in the technarchs' favor, it probably does deliver a decent high-tech lifestyle to the majority of Oriflammen. Another factor keeping it in place would be psychological momentum- the system was imposed as a necessary measure during the Collapse, and given the attitude of most Oriflammen convincing them that some kind of centralized control is still necessary would not be that hard.
So, that's my take on what things look like on Oriflamme, cerca now. Technarchs run the show, with most people at least content with their rule, and will probably continue to do so as long as they can keep the goodies coming to maintain their peoples' lifestyles. There is a resistance, but at the moment it's fairly small and composed mostly of Marine veterans.
The real rub is going to be the technarchs' ability to keep delivering the high-tech goods- and lifestyle that comes with it- to their people. IMTU, that's what's behind the large number of Oriflamme-sponsored SAG raids and the conquest of Spencer- the need of the technarchs to constantly have large sources of advanced tech available to distribute to their population and bolster their own positions. That's also why they wanted the Ship Bill
Aurora s so badly- they need the ability to launch large raids of their own, and can't keep losing out the juciest targets to RCES-sponsored missions. If Borgund becomes large-ship certified, look for a modified
Aurora design out of there before too long, in service to the technarchs.
With that in mind, I see three possibilities:
1) The technarchs win out. The resistance never gathers enough members to be really effective, or it alienates too many people with excessive violence, or not enough people become convinced that the technarchs aren't worth the social cost of maintaining them. Oriflamme continues to raid extensively, possibly seeking dominant power in the Coalition to shape policy in this direction, possibly trading support for the Coreward strategy for a free hand to trailing and rimward. Nothing much changes, barring a Flamer power play.
2) The rebels win. SAG raids drop off, and the technarchs can't come up with enough goodies to keep justifying their control of the planet. Maybe there's an armed revolt, maybe a general strike, maybe the technarchs see the handwriting on the wall and step down, or a combination of all three. Oriflamme is now basically open for a new form of government, and what emerges will determine the fate of one of the biggest populations in the Coalition. Good luck.
3) Secession and war. Things go as (1) above, but the technarchs decide that with RC ideals and Aubani leadership holding them back, they'll never be able to sustain the pace of expansion they need to perpetuate their rule. Oriflamme withdraws from the Coalition and begins an extensive campaign of raid and conquest to trailing and rimward, particularly into the Alpha Crucis sector. I don't believe that there would be an initial move from the RC to stop secession, since the RC itself probably lacks the resources to do so and certainly couldn't pacify Oriflamme if it came to that. However, since this turn of events will almost certainly lead to Oriflamme attacking worlds the RC feels bound to protect, war of some sort is probably inevitable, and if the population of Oriflamme does not seem to favor secession the RC may launch a decap strike against one of its own.
(Note- AFAIK, #3 is basically my own speculation, and nothing of this sort was ever planned in the OTU)
*Whew* Sorry for the long post, but I did warn you. There you have it, Chaser's complete thoughts on the hows and why of Oriflamme...
