beltstrike
- Thread starter flykiller
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mike wightman
SOC-14 10K
So the space race goes well over the next decade or so.
The Chinese, Europeans, US, India, Russia, Israel, South Korea, Japan plus a couple I have possible missed all build their own orbital space stations and moon bases.
They all build fuel manufactories on the moon to refuel ships in Earth orbit, and the next phase begins of building the infrastructure to build machinery and ships in space and on the moon with raw materials from the moon and nearby asteroids.
Phase three is to send robotic ships to the asteroids to carve up chunks of rare earths, gold etc.
A US mining robot arrives at an asteroid, it sets up. A Chinese robot arrives, it sets up on the other side, there is plenty to share. A new era of peace and harmony as the nations share the resources of the solar system for the betterment of humankind.
or alternatively the more likely scenario - I got here first it is all mine, no its not, yes it is, no its not, bang, yes it is. Bigger bang and now its mine...
What if instead of governments a private consortium of companies, lets call them Blue X. decide to use their considerable tech advantage to get to the gold asteroid et al first. The corporation becomes the richest, most influential power in the solar system - or do world governments use their one advantage to take their stuff?
A near future solar system based Traveller game writes itself, and becomes the basis for Twilight 2150... :devil:
The Chinese, Europeans, US, India, Russia, Israel, South Korea, Japan plus a couple I have possible missed all build their own orbital space stations and moon bases.
They all build fuel manufactories on the moon to refuel ships in Earth orbit, and the next phase begins of building the infrastructure to build machinery and ships in space and on the moon with raw materials from the moon and nearby asteroids.
Phase three is to send robotic ships to the asteroids to carve up chunks of rare earths, gold etc.
A US mining robot arrives at an asteroid, it sets up. A Chinese robot arrives, it sets up on the other side, there is plenty to share. A new era of peace and harmony as the nations share the resources of the solar system for the betterment of humankind.
or alternatively the more likely scenario - I got here first it is all mine, no its not, yes it is, no its not, bang, yes it is. Bigger bang and now its mine...
What if instead of governments a private consortium of companies, lets call them Blue X. decide to use their considerable tech advantage to get to the gold asteroid et al first. The corporation becomes the richest, most influential power in the solar system - or do world governments use their one advantage to take their stuff?
A near future solar system based Traveller game writes itself, and becomes the basis for Twilight 2150... :devil:
mike wightman
SOC-14 10K
One of the problems is we don't know how it will work in practice.
What if the Chinese get to the asteroid first?
Will it become like Japanese whale farming - sorry - scientific research? Apply for a licence to 'study' some asteroids with robots that can 'send back samples'. Oops I've accidentally dismantled the asteroid and sent 1000 tons of samples (heavy metals and rare earths) back to my Lunar refinery and industrial complex. We will now study its potential applications by building stuff with it.
Who will regulate? Who will grant licences? Who will police? Who will enforce?
Condottiere
SOC-14 5K
Why do you think Bezos and Musk are building rockets?
Jeff needs to pay alimony, and Elon needs liquidity.
Jeff needs to pay alimony, and Elon needs liquidity.
mike wightman
SOC-14 10K
You mean like the treaty the US government had with the Black Hills Native American tribes...
(note I am using this example because it is the most famous gold induced treaty violation I could remember, I'm pretty sure other governments throughout history have also ignored treaties when expedient to make money)
How so?
The OST specifically calls for those. So mining asteroids is going to be regulaatorily the same as mining the deep ocean floor.
When Spain began importing large quantities of Gold from the Americas to Europe, the price of gold fell. When vast deposits of silver reached the market in the late 20th century the price of silver plummeted.
The introduction of millions of tons of gold will not make one nation wealthy beyond belief, it will reduce the price of gold to a commodity like copper or aluminum.
The introduction of millions of tons of gold will not make one nation wealthy beyond belief, it will reduce the price of gold to a commodity like copper or aluminum.
mike wightman
SOC-14 10K
Not if you do what they have done with diamonds - pretend they are scarce and keep the prices high.
You don't dump 1000t of gold, rare earths or other precious/heavy metals into the market all at once. You use what you need for your own manufacturing needs and drip feed enough to keep the market price high enough for you to make a killing.
You don't dump 1000t of gold, rare earths or other precious/heavy metals into the market all at once. You use what you need for your own manufacturing needs and drip feed enough to keep the market price high enough for you to make a killing.
If they simply hold it in reserve, yes, it will.
kilemall
SOC-14 5K
Perfect excuse for artificial supply 'management'- leave the rock in place. Oh it is so HARD to get the stuff back, etc.
The more interesting consequence to me is
A) heavy metals may be much cheaper in space then earth and so a lot of factories that can move to space for the cheap solar and material builds
B) whether the rock is mined in place or moved to near earth, there are people willing to go out there and steal, even if they aren't nations or megacorps. The usual response is guns. I wonder if the weapons provision of the OST gets ignored, enforced when convenient, or modified to avoid oribtal weapons platforms or moon rock drops.
The more interesting consequence to me is
A) heavy metals may be much cheaper in space then earth and so a lot of factories that can move to space for the cheap solar and material builds
B) whether the rock is mined in place or moved to near earth, there are people willing to go out there and steal, even if they aren't nations or megacorps. The usual response is guns. I wonder if the weapons provision of the OST gets ignored, enforced when convenient, or modified to avoid oribtal weapons platforms or moon rock drops.
If the companies have to indulge in a little supply management to keep the prices up a bit, and earn back the high outlay, fair enough. One the industry matures a bit, the prices would come down through competition - and the space based metals can't jack the prices up too much while we still have supplies here on earth.
As for claim-jumping or theft, well, maybe the style will be for ships to have very robust laser communication systems, ones that could handle massive surges of power for short periods, in case of "interference".
As for claim-jumping or theft, well, maybe the style will be for ships to have very robust laser communication systems, ones that could handle massive surges of power for short periods, in case of "interference".
Drakon
SOC-14 1K
Even in the modern day OPEC has a big problem maintaining oil prices at too high a level, and the addition of the material to the general economy will cause a big technical change.
What would a world be like when gold is pennies an ounce? When it is so abundant, that gold plated silverware is disposable? What kind of exotic alloys would we come up with?
What would a world be like when gold is pennies an ounce? When it is so abundant, that gold plated silverware is disposable? What kind of exotic alloys would we come up with?
You are expecting a Chinese vs EU vs USA trade war as they rush to exploit space and be the richest nation on the planet, but they will all work together with the large corporations to agree on self regulation to sustain an artificial shortage? That seems a pretty tall order.
I think you have a better chance of ending war and hunger than greed.
I think you have a better chance of ending war and hunger than greed.
From my non-expert in economics POV:
Well, going for this gold (and other metals) is sure going to be quite expensive, and I guess if anyone (mostly if a commercial venture) goes to mine them, it will expect some profit from it. This profit should come from the commercialization of this wealth, but commercializing it will lower the prices…
OTOH; how can this profit be collected if they keep the gold (and other metals) hidden to avoid the prices plummeting?
This reminds me about a paradox about money I read time ago (translated from Catalan to the best of my capacity); If you have money and spend it, you don’t have it anymore; but if you have money and do not spend it, it’s as good as if don’t have it.
Well, going for this gold (and other metals) is sure going to be quite expensive, and I guess if anyone (mostly if a commercial venture) goes to mine them, it will expect some profit from it. This profit should come from the commercialization of this wealth, but commercializing it will lower the prices…
OTOH; how can this profit be collected if they keep the gold (and other metals) hidden to avoid the prices plummeting?
This reminds me about a paradox about money I read time ago (translated from Catalan to the best of my capacity); If you have money and spend it, you don’t have it anymore; but if you have money and do not spend it, it’s as good as if don’t have it.
Condottiere
SOC-14 5K
mike wightman
SOC-14 10K
Actually - it can be done. Solar panels can provide the energy. They can provide the energy for ion engines and plasma rockets, smelters, refineries, manufacturing. All we need to do is invest the money to make it possible. If western governments won't the Chinese will...
Not only that in a couple of decades it will have to be done or there will be no more smartphones, tablets, touchscreens...
Step one - get launch to orbit costs down. nearly done
Step two - build a moon base that can make fuel. In time expand the moon industry to solar panel and rocket production, then add nuclear power plant and rtg production. initial bases are already planned by several nations.
Step three - build an Earth orbital station to refuel rockets. do this while building your moon base
Step four - send robots to mine asteroids.
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