Book 2 economics, again! Beating the dead horse...

[daryen]

OK, I tried to ignore the thread, but I failed ...

Originally posted by robject:
I've recently crossed over to the Dark Side of the Imperium, where any unsubsidized trade is rare indeed, and LBB2 tells it like it is.

But the problem is that LBB2 does NOT describe the trade in the Imperium. It describes "trade".

The whole "Imperium subsidized trade to make the per-jump model work" idea doesn't hold any water, for several reasons.

1) LBB2 does NOT describe trade in the Imperium. It describes trade everywhere. This is also true of MT, where its trade system is for "trade" not "Imperial trade" (especially since there is no Imperium anymore).

2) Even if the Imperium is run by morons with an infinite supply of money, the other polities are not. There is no way that the Solomani would go for such a command-control economy.

3) The Imperium doesn't have an infinite supply of money. How can they possibly keep a "system" running for 1100 years when it is hemorraging money in numbers most worlds can't even comprehend. (Cleon must be spinning in his grave fast enough to power all of Capital.)

Simply put, the trade system put forth in LBB2 was simply intended to be a fast system for players to use for speculative cargo. The freight was just to fill out the space. The system totally breaks down when you try to rely on only freight for your money.

So, if you don't care how things actually work, just use the LBB2 system as is for speculative cargo. Don't explain it. Don't justify it. Just use it.

However, if you want anything more, please use a per-parsec model. It might take a little while to make the numbers work, but at least you are not left with a system that forces you to use a brain-dead money-hemorraging nonsensical Imperial-only handwave.

 

[robject]

Originally posted by daryen:
OK, I tried to ignore the thread, but I failed ...

Moo hoo haa haa haaaaa...

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by robject:
I've recently crossed over to the Dark Side of the Imperium, where any unsubsidized trade is rare indeed, and LBB2 tells it like it is.

But the problem is that LBB2 does NOT describe the trade in the Imperium. [...] It describes trade everywhere.

[...]

The system totally breaks down when you try to rely on only freight for your money.

[...] </font>[/QUOTE]I dunno... looks like it describes local trade in space that's run by layers of localized powers under a much larger government.

And it doesn't seem broken to me. There's a huge mortality rate for fledglings -- ok. Subsidies (localized money hemorrhages) somehow benefit both the client and the customer -- ok.

So a planetary budget has pork -- surprise! Doubtless Marquisate, County, Subsector, and Sector budgets do, too. Seems to explain contracts, subsidies, trade routes, and even the Xboat route. Oberlindes owns a scad of feeder contracts in the Regina subsector. Al Morai owns contracts in Mora, and government and military contracts along the Xboat route.

It doesn't explain how interface trade works. Ah, but LBB7 does. I'll have to go see.


Having typed all that, I know that LBB2 isn't based on economic analysis, since Marc isn't an economist and didn't have an economist on staff to build a model. Rather, it's a game balance.

 

[daryen]

You can get the exact same results with a per-parsec model. You are still going to run out of money (just take a hit in that A or A2), you are still going to drown in red tape (ibid), you are still going to be buried by the competition (that is, after all, where the rest of the A starport's trade and passengers went).

Yes, there is pork in just about any governmental system. But the money required to support a per-jump model system would be unimaginably astronomical. Calling that "pork" is quite unfair, as pork is no where near that expensive.

My fundamental problem with the per-jump model is that it flat out can't work. The model breaks down so easily, that everyone can cheat, and there isn't anything the Imperium can do about it. And, if the Imperium is as corrupt as it requires to institute such a model, it is corrupt enough that it won't do anything about it.

And, again, let's assume the Imperium can afford to support such a system. No one else will or can. There just isn't any way the Solomani Confederation could or even would institute such an insane system. The Sword Worlds Confederation and Darrian Confederations couldn't use such a system, because they don't have enough central authority. The Aslan surely couldn't use that type of system for the same reason.

So, either Book 2 describes a system that only applies to the Imperium (which didn't exist when Book 2 was written), or it is a gross simplification that falls apart under examination.

 

[Ranger]

Originally posted by daryen:
You can get the exact same results with a per-parsec model. You are still going to run out of money (just take a hit in that A or A2), you are still going to drown in red tape (ibid), you are still going to be buried by the competition (that is, after all, where the rest of the A starport's trade and passengers went).

Yes, there is pork in just about any governmental system. But the money required to support a per-jump model system would be unimaginably astronomical. Calling that "pork" is quite unfair, as pork is no where near that expensive.

My fundamental problem with the per-jump model is that it flat out can't work. The model breaks down so easily, that everyone can cheat, and there isn't anything the Imperium can do about it. And, if the Imperium is as corrupt as it requires to institute such a model, it is corrupt enough that it won't do anything about it.

And, again, let's assume the Imperium can afford to support such a system. No one else will or can. There just isn't any way the Solomani Confederation could or even would institute such an insane system. The Sword Worlds Confederation and Darrian Confederations couldn't use such a system, because they don't have enough central authority. The Aslan surely couldn't use that type of system for the same reason.

So, either Book 2 describes a system that only applies to the Imperium (which didn't exist when Book 2 was written), or it is a gross simplification that falls apart under examination.

Actually, the Imperium did exist in LBB2, it just handn't been fleshed out. In fact, then entire LBB1-3 system is built on the assumption of an Imperium type system.

MWM was a trained sociologist when he designed CT, so it reflects that view of society. The game is rigged towards the rich and the powerful. The trade system reflects that. The only way you are going to make it as a free trader is to:

a) get a government subsidy (mail contract or subsidiesed regular route)

b) bend the rules (express cargo, i.e. slipping cargo around the customs inspectors) or do side jobs (adverture)

c) own your ship outright, so all you pay is overhead.

Every ship in the game comes with some kind of GM power over it. Scouts can be activated, Nobs can be called to service, Pirates have to dodge the IN or they are going to have a very bad day, ect... The mortgage on a free trader is just another example of that GM power built into the game for ballance.

As to why anyone would want a ship? Well:

'The Black Pearl isn't a ship, it's Freedom.'

Cpt Jack Sparrow

'Look past what she is, and see what she could be... We won't ever have to live under any one else's rule ever again. No matter how long the arm of the Alliance reaches out, we'll just go a little farther."

Cpt Malcolm Reynolds

or words to those effect.

Just my thoughts...

 

[aramis]

Per Jump works best when one follows the cargo. (As opposed to searching for a cargo for the route one has chosen.)

Under the follow the cargo, J2 and J3 more than double the odds of finding a good target system to offload in.

Likewise, the term "Trader" is never defined in Bk2. Many argue it is per ship; I've never so restricted it. I have restricted it to one roll per week per Trader, that is, per person guaranteeing with brokerage fee up front, to buy a found cargo of value X or less, where X is the value for which the brokerage fee prepaid in escrow is sufficient.

[loads of ideas snipped to avoid pissing off Thrash and Ranke]

 

[mike wightman]

Ranger, you missed out:

d) engage in speculative trade.

 

[Pickles]

Before writing off subsidised trade, remember that this is how the majority of trade works in the RW. Also, subsidy doesn't result in haemorrhaging' wealth, it merely redistributes it from the tax base to the megacorporations, which is how it should be in the Imperium.

Now, how well this would work for other societies is debatable. One thing is certain, however, if the Imperium heavily subsidises its trade, other polities would leave themselves open to trade imbalance and economic subjugation if they didn't find a way to counter it - probably by implementing their own unfair trade practices.

 

[daryen]

Originally posted by Bromgrev:
Before writing off subsidised trade, remember that this is how the majority of trade works in the RW. Also, subsidy doesn't result in haemorrhaging' wealth, it merely redistributes it from the tax base to the megacorporations, which is how it should be in the Imperium.

I am not arguing against subsidized trade. Everything that people they say they want in a trade system is fully supported with a pay-per-parsec model.

Subsidization will exist no matter what pay model is used. Every society will use it to try and get their goods out there, and to try and give them an advantage over their competition.

What I am saying is this:

1) The level of subsidization required to support J2+ ships with a pay-per-jump model is insane. This isn't "subsidizing" anymore. I don't know the right word, but it is way, way past subsidizing. This isn't the redistribution of wealth, it is effectively the elimination of wealth.

This will force either rampant cheating (see below) or the elimination of use of J2+ technology for trade.

2) Pay-per-jump is unenforcable. There are too many ways to cheat, and there are too many opportunities to cheat. Such a system will fall apart over the course of a century, much less a millenium.

The easiest way to game the system for an A2 is simply for the captain to state to any freight handler that cargos to be delivered two parsecs away will only be delivered in J1 increments (requiring the payment for two jumps). The end result is a pay-per-parsec model, regardless of the rules. This will happen; it is just too easy to do.

 

[mike wightman]

The easiest way to game the system for an A2 is simply for the captain to state to any freight handler that cargos to be delivered two parsecs away will only be delivered in J1 increments (requiring the payment for two jumps). The end result is a pay-per-parsec model, regardless of the rules. This will happen; it is just too easy to do.

And what happens when the freight handler says "no thanks - I'll wait for the next megacorp ship with spare capacity to ship my cargo in one jump"?
Or how about an A2, bought and paid for through speculative trade, offers to ship the lot in one jump 2 for the flat fee?

There is no per-parsec fee in the OTU because the megacorps like it that way

 

[selunatic2397]

I and my merry band of misfits have always viewed the book 2 economics as 1000 cr. per ton/per parsec.

"25 tons of yadda yadda soda to be hauled 3 parsecs? That'll be 75,000 cr Mista"

None of my group can figure out where the 1000 cr per ton.....PERIOD came from.

My trader player could only figure that maybe the passage fees got confused somewhere [1 middle passage is 8000 cr for trip whether it's 1-2-3 parsecs] with the cargo rates????

We've never had any problems with the phrasing of the various Traveller incarnations ourselves, and are beyond confused with the ongoing debate.



We did bring up the absurdity of paying someone 75,000cr to haul 25 tons of grain that might cost about 100 cr per ton...but we just shrugged and figured that the cargo list was just what the big haulers had left behind in their feeding frenzies to fill up those huge cargo bays.

That and the strict vilani contract/legal codes might have had someone really have to get that grain somewhere NOW! to avoid a fine.

We just assumed that unless you bought it as speculative cargo, it was just generic crates of cargo going from planet A to planet B, and never really cared about what it was....if it was then I'd just make something up that seemed appropriate.

Hope I've helped rather than hindered this debate...

 

[robject]

Originally posted by Aramis:

Likewise, the term "Trader" is never defined in Bk2. Many argue it is per ship; I've never so restricted it. I have restricted it to one roll per week per Trader, that is, per person guaranteeing with brokerage fee up front, to buy a found cargo of value X or less, where X is the value for which the brokerage fee prepaid in escrow is sufficient.

Hey, that's pretty clever. I like that.

 

[robject]

Originally posted by Sigg Oddra:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />The easiest way to game the system for an A2 is simply for the captain to state to any freight handler that cargos to be delivered two parsecs away will only be delivered in J1 increments (requiring the payment for two jumps). The end result is a pay-per-parsec model, regardless of the rules. This will happen; it is just too easy to do.

And what happens when the freight handler says "no thanks - I'll wait for the next megacorp ship with spare capacity to ship my cargo in one jump"?
</font>[/QUOTE]Well, first off, the bottom feeders don't play in the same class as the top of the food chain. But that's another matter entirely.*

As a matter of fact, the Cr1000/ton is already a per-parsec model. A J1 ship could take on cargo bound for 2 parsecs away. It'll get paid Cr1000/ton, that is, Cr500 per parsec. Its rate is reduced automatically because it's taking twice as long to get there.

It could also take on cargo bound for 3 parsecs, and essentially get paid Cr333/ton.

In other words, Cr1000/ton is the highest freight rate, not the lowest.

If a ship is on a subsidy, doesn't that mean it gets half-rates on cargo shipped anywhere within the client worlds? So, assume a county of ten worlds, average distance between worlds is 3 parsecs. The Empress Nicholle is effectively hauling each lot of cargo 3 parsecs, effectively costing the client Cr167 per parsec per ton shipped.

If you're into a Busy Imperium with a thousand Free Traders per world, that could bankrupt worlds. But if that's only a percentage of a county's budget, then no big deal.

* I'm still digesting LBB7.

 

[Fritz_Brown]

Originally posted by robject:
As a matter of fact, the Cr1000/ton is already a per-parsec model. A J1 ship could take on cargo bound for 2 parsecs away. It'll get paid Cr1000/ton, that is, Cr500 per parsec. Its rate is reduced automatically because it's taking twice as long to get there.

Well, robject, I was under the impression that it mentioned "per jump". So the J-1 ship taking something 2pc would charge 2,000Cr/Ton, not 1,000Cr/Ton.

 

[robject]

Originally posted by Fritz88:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by robject:
As a matter of fact, the Cr1000/ton is already a per-parsec model. A J1 ship could take on cargo bound for 2 parsecs away. It'll get paid Cr1000/ton, that is, Cr500 per parsec. Its rate is reduced automatically because it's taking twice as long to get there.

Well, robject, I was under the impression that it mentioned "per jump". So the J-1 ship taking something 2pc would charge 2,000Cr/Ton, not 1,000Cr/Ton. </font>[/QUOTE]You may be right about the "per jump" thing. I suspect if the rules were absolutely clear (or our minds were clearer) there wouldn't be these kinds of, erm, discussions.

Do you think I should ask Marc? Do you think he would answer? (I bet he wouldn't).

 

[daryen]

The rules are explicit: both cargo and passengers are charged per jump. This is flatly clear, and blatantly reinforced in both the operating examples given in TTA and A13.

I can go dig out the arguments I made a long time ago, including detailed quotes from B2 if necessary, but I figure no one wants to see all that. The sum total is that B2 explicitly uses a pay-per-jump system.

My argument has never been that the rules state anything different. My argument is that the rules are stupid and should be changed to a pay-per-parsec system.

So, to be clear:
- The rules are clearly pay-per-jump.
- Pay-per-jump is stupid and should be replaced with pay-per-parsec.

 

[robject]

Wow, can't get clearer than that.

Boy, this dead horse sure is taking a beating.

I guess that means to me that a Jump-1 trader's options are limited -- he can't take on a freight contract longer than 1 parsec.

That also means to me that freight is at least somewhat time-critical.

No, I don't like per-parsec, but this is just the converted talking with the converted.

 

[daryen]

Originally posted by Sigg Oddra:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />The easiest way to game the system for an A2 is simply for the captain to state to any freight handler that cargos to be delivered two parsecs away will only be delivered in J1 increments (requiring the payment for two jumps). The end result is a pay-per-parsec model, regardless of the rules. This will happen; it is just too easy to do.

And what happens when the freight handler says "no thanks - I'll wait for the next megacorp ship with spare capacity to ship my cargo in one jump"?
Or how about an A2, bought and paid for through speculative trade, offers to ship the lot in one jump 2 for the flat fee?</font>[/QUOTE]In the first case, I would say, "Dude, your cargo wouldn't be on the list if there was space on a megacorp ship. You are only here because you got bumped. Pay or wait."

In the second case, I lose that single piece of freight. There are many more lots to come. Besides, if I can't get anyone to deal on the J2 cargos, I just back off and do a J1 cargo and try again next stop.

Besides, I would careful take the time to explain to the other A2 captain exactly what I am doing. How long until he tries the exact same trick later on? If he is smart enough to have bought and paid for an entire starship with speculative trade, he is smart enough to figure out how to double his money on freight.

I don't have to win the first cargo. All I have to do is plant the idea in other J2+ ship captain's heads and wait for the epidemic to start.

There is no per-parsec fee in the OTU because the megacorps like it that way.

Actually, the megacorps would be fighting for per-parsec fees harder than the independents. Per-jump is a huge lead weight on megacorp profits. Per-parsec would allow them to really start making money.

Let's put it another way.

The megacorps described in Traveller can't be the result of a pay-per-jump system. Such a system would force them to operate on razor margins, completely beholden to the massive Imperial state for any chance at solvency.

A pay-per-parsec model allows the megacorps to make money the old fashion way, by actually earning it (all the while trying to stab their opponents in the back - or front for that matter).

The megacorps of the OTU are powerful, rivaling the nobility in direct influence. They are so powerful they own vast sections of the nobility (e.g. Margaret), break Imperial law with impunity (e.g. Tarsus adventure), and maintain private armies and navies. You can't get megacorps like that using the pay-per-jump model.

As for the small independents, the megacorps don't need an economic system that hurts them worse than the independents. All they need is graft and influence, and that works just fine in a pay-per-parsec model.

Actually, I will argue that graft and influence (like is frequently shown in the OTU) works better in a pay-per-parsec model because now they actually have a monetary reason to act in such a brutally competitive manner.

 

[daryen]

Originally posted by robject:
Boy, this dead horse sure is taking a beating.

I told you I was trying to resist ...

Seriously, I argue on this one point so much because the OTU is completely incompatible with a pay-per-jump model. The only way we can have an OTU that looks like it does, with wealthy, powerful megacorps, with J2+ ships all over the place, with all of this other stuff, is if a pay-per-parsec model is in place.

 

[mike wightman]

A jump 1 ship that gets lucky, and has the capital, can buy aircraft, computers, air/rafts, ATvs, AFVs, radioactives, gems, electronoc parts, cybernetic parts, machine tools, and vacc suits.

Buy them on a favourable trade type planet and it will be more than worth your while to transport them for a few jumps until you can get a good profit from the resale world.

This, IMHO, is what the megacorps do on a large scale, and their surplus cargo space is what sets the price for freight shipping per jump.

 

[robject]

Daryen et al,

I think your economic rationale for a per-parsec model is sound. I don't like it, and I may never use it, but it appears to make sense.

Originally posted by daryen:

[...] the megacorps would be fighting for per-parsec fees harder than the independents. Per-jump is a huge lead weight on megacorp profits. Per-parsec would allow them to really start making money.

[...]

The megacorps described in Traveller can't be the result of a pay-per-jump system.

[...]

A pay-per-parsec model allows the megacorps to make money the old fashioned way, by actually earning it (all the while trying to stab their opponents in the back - or front for that matter).

[...]

Vilani corporations in competition?

It's probable that megacorps make their money through long-term, nailed-down contracts, and the making of those deals is where all the assassinations take place. They couldn't care less what the prices are.

It probably depends on how busy the interstellar scene is.