CT Ship Errata Discussion : Akerut Heavy Merchant

[aramis]

All of this based on the assumption that PC level trade rules and costs, which were never meant to model a megacorp's fleets or market manipulations, work for all ships and trade regardless of business size and scope.
How can anything meaningful be said about the state of SM's economics when reasonable economic models don't exist for CT.

No sane simulation can exist because:
(1) The detail level must needs be a sliding scale due to the wide variety of worlds
(2) No sane current economic models survive scale shifts fully intact (Macro vs Micro - they don't work on the same principles
(3) Econ as a unified science doesn't exist; it's more fractured in individual incompatible views than History, a discipline that is nothing but fractured into individual views.
(4) Due to the lack of consensus in the discipline, any model will be one or more of
(4a) too abstract to be valuable
(4b) to convoluted to be used
(4c) non-sane by at least some significant minority's view of sane economic models.
(4d) incomprehensible

 

[DonM]

No sane simulation can exist because:
(1) The detail level must needs be a sliding scale due to the wide variety of worlds
(2) No sane current economic models survive scale shifts fully intact (Macro vs Micro - they don't work on the same principles
(3) Econ as a unified science doesn't exist; it's more fractured in individual incompatible views than History, a discipline that is nothing but fractured into individual views.
(4) Due to the lack of consensus in the discipline, any model will be one or more of
(4a) too abstract to be valuable
(4b) to convoluted to be used
(4c) non-sane by at least some significant minority's view of sane economic models.
(4d) incomprehensible

I dropped Economics as a major in college my sophomore year because of you.

 

[Ishmael]

which is my point here.

which is why I feel that arguments that use vague economic reasons as evidence for something being impossible or mandatory is flawed.

Thus, any explanation for such things is valid so long as it satisfies the individual ref and his players and is not directly contradicted by canon, is the correct one.

 

[atpollard]

All of that said (which is probably true), a J2 version of the Hercules is pretty cool in my book ... I am glad for the posters who raised the issue and crunched the numbers.

W00T! A design for a LBB2 Big Ass Trader. What's not to like?

In fact, IMTU that will be its unofficial nickname: move over Free Trader, Fast Trader, Far Trader and Fat Trader ... here comes a 'Big Ass* Trader'.


* note: no challenge is intended to the trademark of the 'Big Ass Fan' Compan

 

[rancke]

They got a good price on 50 W drives that were part of a cancelled government contract for a warship. Rather than install them in a smaller J2 ship, they opted for the large J1 designs.

That might work IF the most profitable way to utilize 50 cheap W drives is to use them on 5000T J1 ships rather than 2000T J2 ships. Which may very well be the case, but it would be necessary to do some calculations to be sure.

I do wish to point out that such a chain of event is a bit unusual and deserves an explicit mention in any writeup of Akerut.


Hans

 

[atpollard]

I do wish to point out that such a chain of event is a bit unusual and deserves an explicit mention in any writeup of Akerut.

Hans

Not that unusual, with a good Broker and the right world, I can buy a Traveller cargo for far below the average market value several times a year when I play 'Accountants in Space'.

I remember a few years ago following the Constellation Program vs Direct Program debate for a replacement for the (then) soon to be retired Space Shuttle fleet. A topic of some intense debate was the tremendous saving in time, and the savings that translated to in fixed facilities costs, for maintaining the existing External Tank diameter for the new rocket and using the existing manufacturing hardware vs changing the diameter and needing to retool. Where in LBB2 (or anywhere else in Traveller) is that sort of detail available? It made a HUGE difference in the timeline, unit cost and program cost for a heavy lift rocket.

Perhaps rather than a fortuitous purchase of drives, the benefit lay in the existing infrastructure at one yard based on some recently completed order for 5000 dT J1 ships (or a design based upon a simple stretch of a 2000 dT J2 ship that happened to use the same drives). Reality gives us circumstances far below the level of detail appropriate for a game that could easily explain any 'sub-rules-optimal' result. I don't really think that sort of data is critical to enjoying an adventure ... just for reverse-engineering an adventure to a comprehensive model of macroeconomics.

I find it hard to fault an author for not providing that level of detail in a simple adventure.

 

[rancke]

Not that unusual, with a good Broker and the right world, I can buy a Traveller cargo for far below the average market value several times a year when I play 'Accountants in Space'.

It really is unusual. When a shipyard gets an order for 50 ships, the first thing it does is usually not to send a man down to the jump drive factory to buy 50 jump drives and store them in the shed out back. No, it lays down however many hulls it has capacity for (and from what little we know about IN ship procurement, few shipyards handle more than three ships simultaneously) and orders three or four or five drives (however many ships it is building) to be delivered in two years time (or whenever the hulls will be ready for installing the drives) and another set three years later and another set three years after that and so on and so on (a 5000T ship takes 36 months to build) months. And there may be penalty clauses for breaking that contract, but there's a limit to how cheaply they can sell those drives before it become cheaper to break the contract. So an explanation that relies on anyone just happening to have 50 jump drives on hand and letting them go cheaply... well, I'd just said that I'd prefer an explanation that worked, and I felt I ought to show a little good will. But really, it's not all that plausible.

There's an old saying about how reality doesn't have to worry about being believable, but fiction does.

Perhaps rather than a fortuitous purchase of drives, the benefit lay in the existing infrastructure at one yard based on some recently completed order for 5000 dT J1 ships (or a design based upon a simple stretch of a 2000 dT J2 ship that happened to use the same drives). Reality gives us circumstances far below the level of detail appropriate for a game that could easily explain any 'sub-rules-optimal' result. I don't really think that sort of data is critical to enjoying an adventure ... just for reverse-engineering an adventure to a comprehensive model of macroeconomics.

You're talking about 50 ships that each takes three years to build (less the discount for later ships; 10%, I think?) That's 135 shipyard-years . It's not a story that I can disprove with canon figures and logic, the way I can prove that J2 ships are more economic than J1 ships across two-parsec links, but if I hadn't been trying very hard to show a bit of good will, I would have had some harsh words for it.

I find it hard to fault an author for not providing that level of detail in a simple adventure.

I'm not faulting the author. As I said before, I surmise that he genuinely thought that J1 was cheaper than J2 across longer distances than one parsec. I'm saying that we know better than him.


Hans

 

[atpollard]

There's an old saying about how reality doesn't have to worry bout being believable, but fiction does.

OK, I like that.

 

[Carlobrand]

...I'm not faulting the author. As I said before, I surmise that he genuinely thought that J1 was cheaper than J2 across longer distances than one parsec. I'm saying that we know better than him....

Occurs to me that a sci fi author has an advantage over an adventure supplement writer. If a sci fi author introduces you to a story in which Jump-1 ships are hopping through empty space to get to a market two parsecs away, the reader assumes the author's setting somehow makes such a thing practical - the author neither has to nor wants to bog the story down in economic technicalities that distract from the story. For the writer of an adventure supplement like this one, those technicalities are already there, known to the audience and waiting to trip him up.

I still think the easiest explanation has to involve them getting the ships cheap somehow, though the how is a real puzzler. If the ships are cheap enough, then it may be more to run an impractical route with the ships they own than to invest billions into new ships that won't pay for themselves for several years. The frustrating puzzle is coming up with a way that Akerut could have acquired the ships cheaply - and for some reason could not have similarly acquired J2 ships - while remaining consistent with the various remarks made through the adventure.

 

[aramis]

The J2 costs less per Td mostly because of two factors working together: (1)crew costs (LS & Salary) being flat per unit time, and (2) the cost difference between drive W and Z isn't commensurate to the increase in performance.

Bk2 is some wonky stuff. Fun, but wonky. Almost, but not quite, formulaic.

 

[rancke]

Occurs to me that a sci fi author has an advantage over an adventure supplement writer. If a sci fi author introduces you to a story in which Jump-1 ships are hopping through empty space to get to a market two parsecs away, the reader assumes the author's setting somehow makes such a thing practical - the author neither has to nor wants to bog the story down in economic technicalities that distract from the story. For the writer of an adventure supplement like this one, those technicalities are already there, known to the audience and waiting to trip him up.

Authors who make up implausible scenarios get their share of harsh words too. But in some cases the quality of the story raises their narratives above any such petty concerns. As Mark Evanier points out in one of his essays, Disney's Pinoccio is chock-full of stuff that would make any network executive worth his salary deep-six the project from the very start. There's just one little thing: the story works.

That having been said, most authors don't provide detailed information about how to design their starships and how much they cost. When they do provide that sort of detail, they do have to make sure they get their sums straight or some fans WILL point out the discrepancies.

I still think the easiest explanation has to involve them getting the ships cheap somehow, though the how is a real puzzler.

I agree that it's a promising notion and well worth exploring.

If the ships are cheap enough, then it may be more to run an impractical route with the ships they own than to invest billions into new ships that won't pay for themselves for several years.

Ouch! There's a whole new area of doubt and dearth of information here: How old is Akerut? When was it started and how did it build up its fleet? Did the Herculesses replace a previous fleet or are they the very first ships Akerut acquired? Did Akerut get all 50 delivered on the same day or over a 50 year period or something in between?

The frustrating puzzle is coming up with a way that Akerut could have acquired the ships cheaply - and for some reason could not have similarly acquired J2 ships - while remaining consistent with the various remarks made through the adventure.

It is indeed.


Hans

 

[rancke]

I just did a quick-and-dirty calculation of the cost of carrying a dT of cargo across two parsecs with a 5000T J1 ship where the jump drive was absolutely free and gratis (I.e the cost of the ship is MCr879 rather than MCr989). It still turns out to be more than for a full price 5000T J2 ship. Not a whole lot more; only Cr40 per dT (Cr20 per dT per parsec), but it would still represent Mcr133 less profit per year (50 ships delivering 4000 dT 16.67 times a year). And that's if all the links have fuel available at the intermediate stop.


Hans

 

[robject]

So Akerut runs these ships, even though they're inefficient. Sounds like a setup to give Oberlindes a market edge, when they're ready to jump into the subsector.

I rebuilt the ship using ACS*. The cargo space is about the same (within a few tons) as the "fixed" CT version, but they're cheaper by a third. It doesn't change the fact that they're inefficient, though.


* Traveller5's ship design system. Book 2 mixed with MegaTraveller and shades of TNE.

 

[Carlobrand]

I just did a quick-and-dirty calculation of the cost of carrying a dT of cargo across two parsecs with a 5000T J1 ship where the jump drive was absolutely free and gratis (I.e the cost of the ship is MCr879 rather than MCr989). It still turns out to be more than for a full price 5000T J2 ship. Not a whole lot more; only Cr40 per dT (Cr20 per dT per parsec), but it would still represent Mcr133 less profit per year (50 ships delivering 4000 dT 16.67 times a year). And that's if all the links have fuel available at the intermediate stop.


Hans

Based on numbers being used to date, my best estimate says you have to find some way to cut the cost of the J1 by 28% to bring it to break-even with the J2. That means you have to be able to get each ship for MCr280 million less than actual price - MCr720, if we use Aramis' corrected price. That's a heck of a discount, and then we still have the problem of explaining why they couldn't get a discount on a J2.

I'd have suggested they got them surplus from the Navy, but I don't see the Navy flying around in J1's.

What do we know about Akerut and the Hercules, aside from its specs?

"Akerut maintains a fleet of Hercules class bulk carriers of 5000 tons displacement (all identifiable by the 800-range serial number stenciled on the hull and their great size). There are perhaps 50 in the Akerut fleet, and they are constantly occupied in shuttling cargos to and from the border."

By the trade map, Akerut's routes cover 11 worlds: 3 J1 links, 5 J2 links and 3 J3 links. "Akerut has a main office at Junidy, with facilities at Lablon, Feneteman, Carsten, Jesedipere, Focaline, Zila, Aramanx, Rugbird, and Aramis." So, on average there are 4 or 5 Hercules at any one world or en route through jump space to that world at any given time. Because of the statements made about locations where Hercules have been or are going, it is clear that the Hercules is frequently making 2 to 3 parsec transits to get to some locations, and it would appear that they have the ships running the full length of the route rather than just hopping between a pair of worlds. At least one ship, Titan, was described as carrying Navy equipment (the meson guns) from Inthe to Aramis by way of Zila - an odd route, and much of it not covered by Akerut's usual routes. Titan is later bound for Jesedipere - a run of 8 parsecs - with a load of farm machinery.

"The Hercules is a heavy duty carrier used for both bulk cargo and containerized shipments. The ship is in service primarily in the Aramis subsector, but several examples are also in service with Tukera. Because its jump-1 drives make larger distances difficult, Akerut maintains a supply of
500-ton demountable fuel tanks (valued at Cr500,000; can be mounted in two weeks) at its starport locations within the subsector."

Akerut competes with Naasirka and Oberlindes on some of these routes, including the J3 route to Lablon, the J2 route between Aramanx and Feneteman, the J2 route between Zila and Carsten, and (indirectly) the J3 route between Zila and Aramis. Oberlindes has a J3 transport and other unnamed ships. Naasirka's ships are not described.

"Akerut also maintains several patrol cruisers (type T) in the subsector, each armed with four triple lasers. The cruisers are used as escorts for its cargo vessels, for fast information transfer, and occasionally for transport of tradewar mercenaries." So, whatever else is going on, Akerut makes enough to pay for the operation of several non-income-generating 400 dT ships.

"Akerut prefers to hire Tukera-trained crew, but will accept others if necessary."

Competing with Naasirka and Oberlindes, I can't see this working without Hercules coming to Akerut at a steep discount, and the only way I can see to work that without Akerut having equal claim to a J2 at discount is to say Akerut acquired the ships cheap from some third party. Maybe Tukera bought out some bankrupt shipper and turned the shell and its ships into Akerut? Still leaves the problem of why Tukera didn't take the cheap ships for its own J1 routes and use the profit to fund something proper for its subsidiary.

 

[rancke]

I'd have suggested they got them surplus from the Navy, but I don't see the Navy flying around in J1's.

Also: "The Hercules heavy merchant [was] produced for operations in the Aramis and neighboring subsectors by Akerut." [p. 140]

In other words, custom-designed for Akerut's needs!

By the trade map, Akerut's routes cover 11 worlds: 3 J1 links, 5 J2 links and 3 J3 links.

I would say 2 J1 links, Rugbird-Junidy and Aramanx-Carsten. The Jesedipere-Rugbird link is, I believe, an artifact of the limitations of the graphics. If I were to do a new map, I'd draw the link as a gentle arc from Jesedipere directly to Junidy. I can't see any major need to transport goods between pop level 3 Jesedipere to pop level 6 Rugbird.

Of the J3 links, only the one between Lablon and Jesedipere doesn't have the option of splitting it into a J1 and a J2. Surely any J1 or J2 ship will go from Zila to Aramis via Pysadi and from Focaline to Zila via Violante?

I've been thinking about spinning off a separate thread about working out Akerut's history. Not as an attempt to justify the J1 Herculesses, but just for the fun of it. Is that a good idea or should we just continue in this thread?


Hans

 

[MCEvans]

-snip-
I've been thinking about spinning off a separate thread about working out Akerut's history. Not as an attempt to justify the J1 Herculesses, but just for the fun of it. Is that a good idea or should we just continue in this thread?


Hans

Go for it. I like your history work. It brings to life some very drab or limited entries in the works.

 

[aramis]

Also: "The Hercules heavy merchant [was] produced for operations in the Aramis and neighboring subsectors by Akerut." [p. 140]

In other words, custom-designed for Akerut's needs!

Which implies quite strongly that the J1 links are the important aspect, not the shown J2/J3 links. Keep in mind: A single hercules carries as much as at least a dozen PC scale ships, and at higher profit margin.

Also: TTA predates Bk 7 (1983 vs 1985 copyrights). The Akerut Hercules is proof that a bigger trade system is needed than Bk 2.

 

[rancke]

Which implies quite strongly that the J1 links are the important aspect, not the shown J2/J3 links.

No, it implies that the writer thought J1 traffic across two-parsec distances was a good idea. Slower than J2, of course, but obviously he thought that it must be more economic (Earth-centric thinking?). However, he was wrong. We can ignore it or we can do something about it, but we can't make him right by decree (and by 'we' I, in this particular case, mean TPTB).

Keep in mind: A single hercules carries as much as at least a dozen PC scale ships, and at higher profit margin.

Yes, and where do those multiple 4000T lots of goods cargoes come from? We're talking about, at a guesstimate, 3.3 million tons of goods if they're all shifted two parsecs; less the further each lot is shifted, but still a lot of tons of goods. Yebab might be able to produce and consume respectable amounts of Vargr trade, but Yebab is not on Akerut's trade net. Akerut has HQ on Junidy and factors at Lablon, Feneteman confused, Carsten confused, Jesedipere, Focaline confused, Zila, Aramanx, Rugbird, and Aramis. Altogether around 70 million producers/consumers not living on Junidy and Aramanx, 66 million of them on Zila. The bulk of Akerut's business has to be between the Vargr border at one end and Aramanx and Junidy at the other end. Plus the 25% that goes outside the subsector, which explains the network rimwards of Aramanx.

Also: TTA predates Bk 7 (1983 vs 1985 copyrights). The Akerut Hercules is proof that a bigger trade system is needed than Bk 2.

It's proof that you can't use the Book 2 trade system to calculate regular trade and passenger volumes. I'm not sure that a bigger system is needed, merely some sensible guidelines for background developers. After all, how many PCs run major shipping lines? Not that I would object to a bigger trade system, provided it gave sensible results and allowed for variation.


Hans

 

[Carlobrand]

Which implies quite strongly that the J1 links are the important aspect, not the shown J2/J3 links. Keep in mind: A single hercules carries as much as at least a dozen PC scale ships, and at higher profit margin. ...

No, it implies that the writer thought J1 traffic across two-parsec distances was a good idea. ...

Okay, but it's still possible to come up with a rationalization that salvages the writer's work, no?

How about this:

The Hercules were originally intended for a Carsten-Junidy/Jesedipere J1 trade route, back way before the folk on Zykoca got troublesome. Akerut's been around long enough to pay most or all of them off, and with reduced overhead, they took advantage of their financial position to expand their network using the slow-but-paid-off J1 ships.

...Also: TTA predates Bk 7 (1983 vs 1985 copyrights). The Akerut Hercules is proof that a bigger trade system is needed than Bk 2.

Or that the trade system was intended for players flying the tramp trade in 200 dT Free Traders and 400 dT subsidized liners, not for multi-billion-credit NPC corporations using 5000 dT freighters on main trade routes.

 

[robject]

Or that the trade system was intended for players flying the tramp trade in 200 dT Free Traders and 400 dT subsidized liners, not for multi-billion-credit NPC corporations using 5000 dT freighters on main trade routes.

Yes, that's the way I tend to look at it, although I can see that Merchant Prince ties up some loose ends... and clearly they all thought that Book 3 was a dead end. Even though I liked it. And, even Merchant Prince doesn't really address the big boys.