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How to address the problem of the numbers

The risk for remote ordering is multiply compounded with distance due to distance = time...

The risk list for remote ordering:
  • Predicting over time the demand locally
  • Securing the remote source
  • Informing the remote source of your need (Commo time) and getting a response affirming it (commo time again)
  • Paying the remote source (commo time) or
    authorizing release of escrowed funds (commo time) or
    sending funds with the prospectus (incredibly risky)
  • Securing transport

The risks for remote fulfillment of unordered need:
  • predicting a remote demand early enough to matter (prediction time + Comm time + travel time)
  • Securing transport
  • providing at a cost comparable or less than closer suppliers
  • Arranging to arrive before other suppliers
 
Two historical examples of overcoming the problems of remote ordering: Mail order and general stores.


Hans
 
The other abstract notion to consider is how does trade evolve over time. One of the arguments against some trade setup has been economic reality.

Step 1: A merchant ship arrives at port with a box of widgets. The captain manages to convince a local merchant these are worth the cost, and sells them on.

Step 2: The merchant ship makes another trip between the two worlds with another box or two of widgets. The original merchant buys both at an even healthier markup.

Step 3: Captain, seeing the potential for a profitable trade schedules a regular run between the worlds. Here, other goods are added to the ships hold and sold at the other end of the route.

Step 4: The demand for widgets outstrips the ability of the one ship to mange it. The manufacturer and the merchant set up their own trade agreement and find more consistent shipping.

Step 5: Some time between step 2 and step 4 a local manufacturer discovered the ongoing widget trade and builds a local factory to make the widgets cheaper. The widget trade between the two worlds collapses.

This raises three questions.

1. What is the time scale of these events? It quite obviously depends upon the goods. Items beyond the TL manufacturing capability of the world may never reach step 5. Luxury items may never have the market to reach step 4. But this would be a general economic cycle.

2. With the collapse of the widget trade, does this mean there is no more trade between the worlds? Or has the value of the trade been replaced with other items?

This is one of the outcomes of the gravity trade model used by GT:FI. Once the logistics of trade between two counties (worlds) has been established (see step 2), the value of the trade remains a constant. Even as tariffs fluctuate, trade protection schemes are put in place or removed, and so on. So even as one area of trade (e.g. widgets) gets shut down, another opens all driven by the economics.

3. Can you come up with an adventure or two based around each of the five steps the player can be involved in?
 
Two historical examples of overcoming the problems of remote ordering: Mail order and general stores.


Hans

Now you mention it knowing how general stores in the US frontier west operated would likely provide a close model for some of this.

Mail order illustrates the safe vs speculative divide quite well imo. Say you have a water farmer on a remote planet with a half-broken pump part. If it was going to take a year to replace the part then they'd have to order it well in advance (the safe demand trader part) but what happens if it breaks suddenly without warning (the speculative trader part)? Or the general store holds one of these parts in stock but not two because usually two farmers don't get the same problem at once.

This leads back to the idea of tramp traders generally only being able to sell their cargo of computer parts 1-2 tons at a time rather all in one go. In that kind of environment a tramp trader would be like a mobile reserve warehouse.
 
The other abstract notion to consider is how does trade evolve over time.

Yes. One way of seeing the safe vs speculative split is a process over time.

A new planet/market is contacted and initially there is no safe demand trade because no one knows the demand so initially it is all speculative - modified by probability.

As demand levels are figured out over time that part of the trade is regularized and the free traders gradually squeezed out.

Eventually the speculative part is reduced to the emergency flying warehouse role.

Then the manufacture is moved on world (mirroring the reduction in Trade between the European colonies as they developed).

Then TL advances and some new goods show up on speculative traders repeating the cycle.

(Plus the cycle can be at different stages for different commodities.)
 
3. Can you come up with an adventure or two based around each of the five steps the player can be involved in?

That is the payoff from trying to figure this kind of thing out imo.

Step 1: A merchant ship arrives at port with a box of widgets.

Desert world where water from Bantha hide stills is collected by desert nomads. Farmer population restricted to oases.

Adventure: Trade mission to interest one of the oasis populations in a hi-tech
water still.

Depending on their skills the players could either be the trader mission itself, the security for a trader mission or some kind of crew/helpers. The oases could be pretty wild or have cultural mine fields or a local leader might have a mission to complete to raise their reaction high enough to agree.

#

Step 2: The merchant ship makes another trip between the two worlds with another box or two of widgets. The original merchant buys both at an even healthier markup.

Adventure: The first still is set up some way from oasis forming basis for new farmer settlement - attacked by desert nomads. Adventure from that depends on player skills - could be repairs, could be security, could be diplomacy with local nomad tribe. First oasis takes shipment of stills - orders weapons.

Other options
a)rival merchant wants to buy the stills instead, could be an auction, could be players say no and whichever merchant loses could try dirty tricks e.g. using some nomads to try and steal the stills.

b) the same but rival oasis.

c) Traditionalist group sees all this as a threat to cultural or economic stability - sabotage and/or diplomacy.

#

Step 3: Captain, seeing the potential for a profitable trade schedules a regular run between the worlds. Here, other goods are added to the ships hold and sold at the other end of the route.

Adventure: continuation of the above plus other free traders starting to muscle into this potentially lucrative new trade.

#

Step 4: The demand for widgets outstrips the ability of the one ship to mange it. The manufacturer and the merchant set up their own trade agreement and find more consistent shipping
.

Adventure: as above but more general political/economic conflict within the oasis population and between them and the Jawas. Possible mercenary ticket. Once a "safe" demand has been built up by the free traders then larger corporate interests move in to squeeze them out.

#

Step 5: Some time between step 2 and step 4 a local manufacturer discovered the ongoing widget trade and builds a local factory to make the widgets cheaper. The widget trade between the two worlds collapses.

Adventure: free traders turned pirate on the corporate ships.

#

Running throughout all this is how would the oasis farmers pay for the stills?

Some kind of rare gem?

Where do they come from?

Nomads?

Where do the nomads get them from?

Which could lead into a whole different set of adventures finding out.

Or simply act as a lead in to a buried ancients site or ruins of an earlier civilization (ancient Jawa) that was trashed somehow by the desertification for some dungeon crawl with automatic weapons style action.

#

edit: The players could be dropped into any stage of this cycle depending on where the desert world was.
 
I was digging around my Traveller collection (looking for some references) and found my stack of the Traveller Trade cards. The Traveller Trade Cards is a pdf containing cards you print them onto Avery Business cards which separate easily. The cards (the trade items and their values) are from the T20 trade system, but probably portable into most other Traveller versions.

I figure relevant to this discussion.
 
I was digging around my Traveller collection (looking for some references) and found my stack of the Traveller Trade cards. The Traveller Trade Cards is a pdf containing cards you print them onto Avery Business cards which separate easily. The cards (the trade items and their values) are from the T20 trade system, but probably portable into most other Traveller versions.

I figure relevant to this discussion.


That's a neat idea - better than searching for the table.
 
Actually

J1 -x per jump
J2 -1.4x per jump
J3 -1.8x per jump

looking back at the numbers the cost ratios (taking an average base operating cost +50% profit margin) are a bit different from the optimal ones especially as older ships are more likely to have been paid off - and thus much more profitable - so there's no reason to upgrade to a newer ship until the old one is too old to fly so there's probably lots of rustbuckets out there - minus the rust.

CT 1E

http://www.travellerrpg.com/CotI/Discuss/showpost.php?p=495854&postcount=6

CT 2E

http://www.travellerrpg.com/CotI/Discuss/showpost.php?p=495852&postcount=4

and Book 5

http://www.travellerrpg.com/CotI/Discuss/showpost.php?p=495849&postcount=1


Gives j1/j2/j3 ratios (roughly) of
ratio 1 : 1.7 : 2.5
ratio 1.1 : 2 : 3.2
ratio 1.2 : 1.5 : 2.6
respectively.

For me personally that's close enough to just call it 1/2/3 i.e. 1000cr per parsec.

#

So the distance modifier (assuming variable cargo price) could just be -1 per parsec which is nice and simple.
 
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