[Kessler Syndrome] Interesting Concept for a modern T2K scenario

[Kilgs]

The Kessler Syndrome posits that accumulation of space debris and eventual collisions will result in destruction of orbital objects such as satellites etc.

This would help a move of T2K into the modern era where you want to get rid of computers/internet etc. Satellite war or anything else renders all satellite launches unfeasible.

https://bigthink.com/paul-ratner/ho...ll-space-exploration-and-destroy-modern-life?

 

[giant.robot]

Space debris isn't going to affect computers or the internet. Very little internet or voice traffic transits by satellite anymore, long distance traffic is all optical cables.

However Kessler Syndrome would be an interesting component of a Twilight War, maybe as a component of ballistic missile defense (successful or not) or as you suggest anti-satellite warfare (or both). A lack of spy satellites would impact a lot of modern military operations.

LEO is the region that would be most imperiled by anti-satellite weapons and the Kessler effect of debris. MEO and GEO would not be as easily compromised as the volume of space is just way larger and there's fewer satellites in those orbits. They're also harder to hit because much larger rockets are needed to get an ASAT system to those orbits.

So many spy and weather satellites would/could be destroyed in LEO but navigation and many communication satellites would likely be safe (relatively). Those would face a bigger danger of having their ground component destroyed or disabled.

 

[mike wightman]

A Carrington+ solar storm could be a good way to knock out satellite infrastructure as a precursor to a Twilight war.

 

[Kilgs]

However Kessler Syndrome would be an interesting component of a Twilight War, maybe as a component of ballistic missile defense (successful or not) or as you suggest anti-satellite warfare (or both). A lack of spy satellites would impact a lot of modern military operations.

That is what I was referencing... not the syndrome as an apocalypse, sorry I wasn't clear. A lot of times folks (and I) struggle with how to kill all the GPS/connectivity to make the T2k world properly isolated-feeling. With all the EMP shielding nowadays, the simple EMP of a nuke just doesn't cut it anymore.

A general Twilight War coupled with the syndrome helps quite a bit.

 

[aramis]

That is what I was referencing... not the syndrome as an apocalypse, sorry I wasn't clear. A lot of times folks (and I) struggle with how to kill all the GPS/connectivity to make the T2k world properly isolated-feeling. With all the EMP shielding nowadays, the simple EMP of a nuke just doesn't cut it anymore.

A general Twilight War coupled with the syndrome helps quite a bit.

The problem is that Kessler Syndrome requires a lot more density to be assured to eliminate the comm-nets and map-nets. While there are nearly a million bits and bobs up there (ISTR 300K being trackably large), the actual hit rate is pretty darned low at present.

How do you get the Kessler syndrome going?

 

[giant.robot]

How do you get the Kessler syndrome going?

It's actually something you'd have to spend a lot of resources to create in the first place. Launching tons of little impactors in polar orbits at varying altitudes would probably be the least expensive way. You'd basically want a belt of impactors crossing East-West orbits to give the maximum opportunity for impact events.

Small steel ball bearings would make good impactors I think. Most satellite buses are aluminum so steel would tear them up pretty well and would be more likely to shatter solar panels. Being conductive there's also more opportunities to cause electrical shorts as they pass through circuit boards and wiring.

The main problem is you would need literal tons of them launched into polar orbit which would need a lot of fairly hefty rockets. Polar orbits are more difficult than other LEO orbits because there's no free velocity from the rotation of the Earth so that delta-v needs to come from propellant which means less payload. The delivery vehicles would essentially be space Claymores.

To the point of helping isolate commands in a Twilight War...I think anything short of simply taking away modern technology isn't going to do much. If GPS and DSCS/GBS/WGS disappeared tomorrow it would annoy but not necessarily cripple any first world military.

HF radio would still exist and work fine, as would compasses and AGPS systems and all manner of aeronautical and maritime navigation aids. INS would also still exist so most weapons would continue to work as well since they're not wholly dependent on GPS to deliver long distance booms.

Computers add a great deal of capability to low bandwidth communications. Relatively unsophisticated radios attached to off the shelf laptops can be comms workhorses. I'm sure headquarters and signals units have non-satellite comms gear that puts ham stuff to shame.

I think the real breakdown would be in civilian infrastructure that relies on GPS and other space based systems. For instance a good deal of synchronous networking uses GPS to keep clocks adjusted.

 

[AtlanticFriend]

Maybe the Kessler Syndrome could be the starting point of the Twilight War? Could the destruction of the satellites/the accumulation of debris trick NORAD or its Russian equivalent into thinking a massive attack is ongoing? A dead man switch based system might rely on continuous signals from a satellite which would be taken offline by the debris. In such a situation, both sides would sincerely think they are beyond reproach, which could make rapidly impossible for the war to be stopped.