CT Only: Most Efficient Ship Intermediate Conclusions

[Grav_Moped]

1. My “LBB2 most efficient ships by TL” research has accomplished a few things so far:

a. Set a price floor on payload rates (Cr614-684, varying by TL/ship size), though this may only apply to megacorp shipping outside of the trade minigame.
b. Established that only per-parsec rates make economic sense because J-1 or J-2 (for odd or even distances) is the cheapest method before TL-15.
c. Provides multipliers (that I have yet to work out) for higher Jn (above J-2) payload costs

i. This includes potentially ruling out some high Jn options as not economically viable under the trade rules
ii. This may include determination of which ships are available on a given route
iii. These multipliers may not be accurate if smaller ships are used instead.​

d. Might have established that ability to fill payload space is often the primary controlling factor as to which ships are available on a given route

i. At least within the trade mini-game; this is not a comprehensive interstellar market analysis.
ii. These most-efficient ships have more cargo space than I expect the trade minigame to generate as available.​

2. This analysis has yet to cover:

a. What effect this has, or should have, on the trade minigame.
b. How much cargo the trade minigame generates on a typical world in a week (or month, or year).
c. At what point the trade minigame only models the market available to independents for a specific world rather than the world's entire interstellar cargo market.
d. What effect LBB5 has on these costs.
​

More to follow.

 

[vegas]

Thanks for re-starting the discussion. I look forward to reusing your results.

c. At what point the trade minigame only models the market available to independents for a specific world rather than the world's entire interstellar cargo market.

"Trying to analyze Traveller economics from the trade rules, is like trying to understand the economics of transoceanic container trade by looking at cross-Indian Ocean dhow traffic."
-- Bruce Johnson

For what its worth, I think Mr. Johnson gives the right perspective when evaluating shipping costs and what goes on in the setting.

More to follow.

Waiting patiently...

 

[Proneutron]

What ship tonnage ranges were looked at?

 

[Grav_Moped]

A quick look at the LBB2 cargo generation rules shows:
- There is no adjustment in either price or available quantity for distance
- There is no provision for through-carriage (that is, a J-1 ship can't get cargo for a destination 2 parsecs away).
-TL difference can be a significant modifier, to an extent that might be implausible.

 

[Grav_Moped]

What ship tonnage ranges were looked at?

200Td (J-3 at TL-9) through 5000Td (J-2 at TL-15).
The most efficient ones tended to be in the 1000-2000Td range in the TL-11 through TL-14 "broad middle", and these are the ones from which I'm drawing generalizations.

The trade minigame seems to direct a lot of cargo from high-TL worlds to low-TL worlds, but aside from that the typical cargo available looks like a Type R with a 200Td cargo hold can handle most of what goes to or from a generic world.

This seems odd, since I'd expect Agricultural worlds would generate a lot of bulk cargo if nothing else. This does sort of show up in the speculation rules though.

 

[Proneutron]

200Td (J-3 at TL-9) through 5000Td (J-2 at TL-15).
The most efficient ones tended to be in the 1000-2000Td range in the TL-11 through TL-14 "broad middle", and these are the ones from which I'm drawing generalizations.

The trade minigame seems to direct a lot of cargo from high-TL worlds to low-TL worlds, but aside from that the typical cargo available looks like a Type R with a 200Td cargo hold can handle most of what goes to or from a generic world.

This seems odd, since I'd expect Agricultural worlds would generate a lot of bulk cargo if nothing else. This does sort of show up in the speculation rules though.

When you look at modern trade it goes mostly from High Pop, lower TL areas to Higher TL, Rich areas of the world.

 

[Grav_Moped]

When you look at modern trade it goes mostly from High Pop, lower TL areas to Higher TL, Rich areas of the world.

It might be better understood as mid-TL Industrial ("In" code requires high pop) (making products above local TL) to High TL Rich.

Plus bulk foodstuffs from High TL Ag to High Pop.

Am I going to have to dig into the CIA World Factbook and try to figure this out?
It's probably in there, but doing it right is gonna be a chore.

I'm really beginning to think the trade game is "this is what YOUR Free Trader gets, THIS week," rather than any sort of economic simulation whatsoever.

This would mean it's unhelpful for ships with more than a couple of hundred tons of cargo capacity -- that is, for ships bigger than most PCs will be using.

 

[Grav_Moped]

Best case:
TL-15 world to Pop-8 TL-2 world:
D6(assume 6) + 6, +DM 13 for TL, +DM 1 for high pop.
26 10-60T lots
27 5-30Td lots
6 1-6Td lots

Max everything out and it's just a little over 2,400Td.
The TL-13 J-1 ship at 3000Td could carry all of that.
The TL-15 J-1 ship at 5000Td would have 1500Td cargo space left over.

Picking average rolls for everything, instead, it's more like 800-ish tons.
The TL-10 J-1 ship at 1000Td could hold nearly all of it (793Td payload).
The TL-11 J-1 ship at 2000Td would be half empty.

And this is almost the maximum amount of cargo possible in the trade minigame.

In fairness, there won't be a TL-15 world next to a TL-2 world very often.

 

[Proneutron]

It might be better understood as mid-TL Industrial ("In" code requires high pop) (making products above local TL) to High TL Rich.

Plus bulk foodstuffs from High TL Ag to High Pop.

Bingo.

I'm really beginning to think the trade game is "this is what YOUR Free Trader gets, THIS week," rather than any sort of economic simulation whatsoever.

This would mean it's unhelpful for ships with more than a couple of hundred tons of cargo capacity -- that is, for ships bigger than most PCs will be using.

Agreed.

 

[Grav_Moped]

Average case:
Pop 5, no TL differential, no pop DMs.

1D+1 major, 1D+2 minor

Maximum: 660Td. (Doesn't fill a 1000Td J-1 ship)
Average: 219Td. (Would fill a Type R Subsidized Merchant, but that ship wastes 25Td for the standard hull and has 32Td tied up in staterooms).

 

[Proneutron]

Average case:
Pop 5, no TL differential, no pop DMs.

1D+1 major, 1D+2 minor

Maximum: 660Td. (Doesn't fill a 1000Td J-1 ship)
Average: 219Td. (Would fill a Type R Subsidized Merchant, but that ship wastes 25Td for the standard hull and has 32Td tied up in staterooms).

So for non-gov connected traders maybe something like a 300 ton standard hull would have come into being if that cargo amount is what is available.

 

[Grav_Moped]

So for non-gov connected traders maybe something like a 300 ton standard hull would have come into being if that cargo amount is what is available.

The R can probably fill its staterooms as well on a "no +-DM" world, with just under half being high passengers, so it works out.

I'd have to crunch a few numbers to see what a J-2 version of the Type R would need to charge per payload ton. The stock J-1 version would need to clear Cr863/ton per jump.

And the Type R is seriously sub-optimal (drives are bigger than needed for J-1/1G, and it carries a 20-ton launch that it probably only needs for narrative purposes since the hull is streamlined).

That may be why the 600 ton ship is a subsidized liner -- it'll fill the cargo hold easily and probably most of the staterooms. Getting enough cargo for that additional 84Td if it weren't staterooms might be difficult.

 

[Proneutron]

The R can probably fill its staterooms as well on a "no +-DM" world, with just under half being high passengers, so it works out.

I'd have to crunch a few numbers to see what a J-2 version of the Type R would need to charge per payload ton. The stock J-1 version would need to clear Cr863/ton per jump.

And the Type R is seriously sub-optimal (drives are bigger than needed for J-1/1G, and it carries a 20-ton launch that it probably only needs for narrative purposes since the hull is streamlined).

That may be why the 600 ton ship is a subsidized liner -- it'll fill the cargo hold easily and probably most of the staterooms. Getting enough cargo for that additional 84Td if it weren't staterooms might be difficult.

That all makes sense. A proper 400ton design should be viable and would be the predominant type at least on J-1 routes with 200ton traders picking up freight scraps, passengers and speculating the remainder perhaps

 

[Grav_Moped]

That all makes sense. A proper 400ton design should be viable and would be the predominant type at least on J-1 routes with 200ton traders picking up freight scraps, passengers and speculating the remainder perhaps

J2 ships (at least the larger ones) are competitive when doing Jump-2 (but noticeably more expensive per parsec when doing Jump-1). I'll run the numbers on a far fat trader (Type R2 Subsidized Merchant) and post 'em here, just for giggles.

It's actually kind of amusing to see where this goes.

Type R, by the book, unarmed: 207 tons cargo (239 tons payload).
Cost to 1pc per ton payload: Cr1075
Cost to 2pc per ton payload: Cr3226 (2 jumps/4 weeks)

Type R, with Size B (not C) drives, unarmed (same payload)
Cost to 1pc per ton payload: Cr899
Cost to 2pc per ton payload: Cr1799 (2 jumps/4 weeks)

Type R2, unarmed: 153 tons cargo (185 tons payload)
Cost to 1pc per ton payload: Cr1631
Cost to 2pc per ton payload: Cr1766


The Type R (by the book) will fill its cargo hold on a no-DM world but still lose money (on cargo) at a Cr1000/ton cargo rate.
If it didn't have the 20-ton Launch, it could make Cr121 per ton of payload at Cr1000/ton. (Cost is then Cr879/ton/jump.) Even short 8 tons of cargo (the difference between its max cargo capacity of 227 tons and the 219 tons average cargo available on a no-DM world) it'd still be making Cr97/ton payload capacity.

If built with Size B drives, but still with the Launch, it'll profit Cr101 per ton of cargo.

They built it to be unprofitable by the rules, but not blatantly so. If built sensibly, it would be profitable without a subsidy.

Tacking on a couple of turrets (MM, LL) and adding gunners for them changes this a bit.
The version with Size B drives then loses a little at Cr1000/ton rates (costs Cr1035/ton/jump). Without the Launch it'd make money on cargo.

 

[Proneutron]

J2 ships (at least the larger ones) are competitive when doing Jump-2 (but noticeably more expensive per parsec when doing Jump-1). I'll run the numbers on a far fat trader (Type R2 Subsidized Merchant) and post 'em here, just for giggles.

It's actually kind of amusing to see where this goes.

<snip>

Good data for GMs to use

 

[kilemall]

Incidentally, this datum could be used to drive starship encounter tables.

Assuming most people use 'jump shadowing', that means most people will also use jump lanes, transiting in or out from the 100D limit in the direction of the two planets the jump is being performed between.



So you would have a starship encounters table for each jump lane derived in large measure by what traffic is happening between those planets.

The two jump lanes on a trade route would see a lot of big shipping line multi-parsec superfreighters and the protection if available to match, a J-1 lane to a poor/small pop planet may hardly see any ships at all, and the medium juicy target/less protection jump lanes may see more pirates then the other.

 

[Proneutron]

Incidentally, this datum could be used to drive starship encounter tables.

Assuming most people use 'jump shadowing', that means most people will also use jump lanes, transiting in or out from the 100D limit in the direction of the two planets the jump is being performed between.

There won't be "lanes" as the target planet can be reached from a huge arc of area from the destination world

 

[Grav_Moped]

Incidentally, this datum could be used to drive starship encounter tables.

Assuming most people use 'jump shadowing', that means most people will also use jump lanes, transiting in or out from the 100D limit in the direction of the two planets the jump is being performed between.



So you would have a starship encounters table for each jump lane derived in large measure by what traffic is happening between those planets.

The two jump lanes on a trade route would see a lot of big shipping line multi-parsec superfreighters and the protection if available to match, a J-1 lane to a poor/small pop planet may hardly see any ships at all, and the medium juicy target/less protection jump lanes may see more pirates then the other.

There won't be "lanes" as the target planet can be reached from a huge arc of area from the destination world

I'm thinking there will be "lanes" of a sort, but not necessarily due to intervening celestial bodies. For any given pair of worlds, their relative velocity (net of relative velocity of the primaries, and orbital velocity around the primaries) will have an optimal departure/arrival route. This route will be such that accelerating to Jump Limit, then decelerating toward (thrust away from) the destination world after Jump, yields the minimum transit time. This assumes jumping "hot", that is, without decelerating to rest relative to the origin world prior to jump. It also may involve acceleration rather than deceleration at the destination -- that is, using both the outbound and inbound legs of the flight to increase the ship's velocity to match the (relative) vector of the destination world.

These "lanes" aren't mandatory, but they are best-practice. The direction a ship is heading on its way to 100D will often indicate where it's heading (unless they're taking a sub-optimal route to throw off potential pursuers).


There's a little of the "different encounters on different trade routes" thing in the rules, but oversimplified by just using starport class.

 

[Grav_Moped]

<snip>

Good data for GMs to use

Appreciate the positive feedback!

 

[Grav_Moped]

J2 ships (at least the larger ones) are competitive when doing Jump-2 (but noticeably more expensive per parsec when doing Jump-1). I'll run the numbers on a far fat trader (Type R2 Subsidized Merchant)....

I'm slightly surprised that the relationship (J-2 slightly cheaper than 2J1, but more expensive when J2 ships used at J-1) holds for smaller ships than the ones I first analyzed as well. Probably doesn't hold up when "gas and go" operations (9-day jump cycle, instead of 14-day) are taken into consideration, but since the LBBs don't, I won't for now.

The next thing I'll probably do is code up a die-roller/logger in BASIC to figure out cargo and passenger distributions by population.

You can't do an Escher Staircase of Tech Levels on a route (always going to a lower-TL world, to ensure more cargo), so at least some legs of a route will be run at partial capacity or the ship will be sized so it always encounters excess cargo at each world and turns some down.

I expect this will drive availability of shipping (ships are going to be a lot smaller than the most efficient ones by TL).

It's interesting that the typical amount of available cargo looks a lot like the capacity of a Subsidized Merchant or Subsidized Liner. Seems almost intentional...