A quick qualitative thoughts on probabilities.
Just watched Serenity last night and it got me thinking about the probability of Impossible acts. In addition, many seem to find it a nice representation of a Traveller-esque style of adventure.
Mini-spoiler
If you've seen it, there is a scene where Mal needs to shoot a rope while standing on a speeding and swerving "air-raft," it takes him a couple of shots. This is certainly a very Impossible task, yet since he is most likely a skill-5 or 6 in his weapon and has good stats he gets it done.
This is a long way of saying that for game-play IMO a chance to succeed at Impossible tasks for the highly skilled and stated should not be much less than 40-50%. The chance of failing at three rolls at 50%, is about 12%. If the chance of success is say around 10% that means on average 10 tries before succeeding, or the chance of failing on three rolls is still about 70%.
I would say that if a 40%-50% chance seems too high (even for character's with the pinnacle of skill and stats) then make success dependent on two Impossible roles, this reduces the odds dramatically but still gives the character the feel they are doing something heroic (adventuresome) if they make one.
On the flip side, of a doctor with medical-4 still having a 1 in 36, or what have you, of failing, allow such doctors a second roll to recover from the goof, and maybe even a third. Their are many emergency room medical dramas that can provide an image of what these "recovery rolls" might entail.
now back to the numbers....
btw, I think the "mule" needs to become the OTU air-raft
.
Just watched Serenity last night and it got me thinking about the probability of Impossible acts. In addition, many seem to find it a nice representation of a Traveller-esque style of adventure.
Mini-spoiler
If you've seen it, there is a scene where Mal needs to shoot a rope while standing on a speeding and swerving "air-raft," it takes him a couple of shots. This is certainly a very Impossible task, yet since he is most likely a skill-5 or 6 in his weapon and has good stats he gets it done.
This is a long way of saying that for game-play IMO a chance to succeed at Impossible tasks for the highly skilled and stated should not be much less than 40-50%. The chance of failing at three rolls at 50%, is about 12%. If the chance of success is say around 10% that means on average 10 tries before succeeding, or the chance of failing on three rolls is still about 70%.
I would say that if a 40%-50% chance seems too high (even for character's with the pinnacle of skill and stats) then make success dependent on two Impossible roles, this reduces the odds dramatically but still gives the character the feel they are doing something heroic (adventuresome) if they make one.
On the flip side, of a doctor with medical-4 still having a 1 in 36, or what have you, of failing, allow such doctors a second roll to recover from the goof, and maybe even a third. Their are many emergency room medical dramas that can provide an image of what these "recovery rolls" might entail.
now back to the numbers....
btw, I think the "mule" needs to become the OTU air-raft