I recently re-read the first three Foundation books for the first time in almost 30 years. I was struck, of course, by the many elements that made it into Traveller wholesale -- and the one essential concept that didn't, at least not overtly: psychohistory.
But then again, perhaps psychohistory is already implied in many of the basic assumptions of the OTU.
If the Vilani of the First Imperium were anything, they were likely highly effective social engineers. The Terrans might have been far better at the biological sciences, but the Vilani of the Ziru Sirka were probably supreme in the social sciences, producing unsurpassed sociologists and economists. The development of something like Asimov's psychohistory -- megascale statistical forecasting of human behavior -- would have been a natural extension of these talents.
A dependence upon psychohistory principles in planning and administrating the First Imperium would explain the Vilani's unprecedented success controlling such an expansive territory over such a long time period.
But as the Foundation series shows us, the single biggest limitation of psychohistory is its inability to account for unexpected and unprecedented variables. One mutant, albeit an extremely powerful one, nearly single-handedly destroys the Seldon Plan.
Cultural changes can happen quickly and bring great disruption. It is often noted that while the tech in Kubrick's 2001 still looks and feels relevant (he foresaw iPads!), the movie feels badly dated in its depiction of gender roles.
The Vilani at the time of Terran contact are often depicted as decadent and complacent, having ceased to innovate, making them easy pickings for the more vibrant and ascendant Terrans.
But what if this extreme conservatism was not the result of natural cultural stagnation, as with Gibbon’s Decline and Fall, but an intentional and rational strategy, adopted to facilitate psychohistory planning? This adoption could be both overtly coded as mores (we, as good citizens of the Imperium, reject disruptive technologies for the good of the Ziru Sirka) or covertly accomplished by a Second Foundation like secret organization that intervenes to suppress potentially disruptive memes or tech.
Adoption of psychohistory planning might explain the abrupt change in the First Imperium from technological innovation and territorial expansion to consolidation and stasis. The Vilani didn't get complacent: they got careful once psychohistory forecasting showed the potential collapse of the Imperium. Contact with the Terrans represented what they most feared: A “Mule-level” agent of psychohistory disruption.
Psychohistory accuracy demands stable and consistent culture. Psychohistory failure can result in unnecessary economic disruption, political turmoil, wars, and potentially collapse of the entire Interstellar community, with millennia of attendant suffering. So the stakes could not possibly be higher.
A pervasive reliance on psychohistory -- and an accompanying need for cultural stability and predictability -- would explain an awful lot about the OTU. In character the Third Imperium seems to have far more in common with the static Vilani First Imperium than the dynamic Terran Second.
Take Transhumanism. Sure, we get some very interesting glimpses of transhumanist tech in Agent of the Imperium, but clearly by 1105 this has not effected significant cultural changes in the Imperium. While Herbert had to invent the Butlerian Jihad to explain the lack of AI in the Dune universe, perhaps Traveller can point to psychohistory. Widespread development of AI across the Imperium would invalidate key formulae, wiping out centuries of careful planning. To combat this the Imperium has strong cultural values that consider such tech as deeply transgressive, passively discouraging adoption, as well as instruments such as patents, legal restrictions, and even Quarantine to actively eliminate such threats.
Or let us expand beyond Transhumanism to tech in general. Tech advancement evidently propagates slowly and unevenly across Interstellar communities. Perhaps this is due to something structural about Jump drive based societies. But perhaps this is also due to design: tech advancements move slowly to allow for measured assimilation. First Imperium Vilanis would probably consider the rapid tech progress of 20th/21st century Terra as an unmitigated disaster due to all of the social and economic disruptions created by new tech displacing old tech. How can one plan or manage an economy in such an environment? It's like building a house on shifting sand.
Psychohistory might also help explain the uniformity and stability of Imperial culture across large distances of time and space. Local worlds might have their own flavor, but there is remarkable consistency between Imperial worlds across different sectors and time periods; worlds that are incompatibly different end up interdicted or glassed. Look at all the different alien cultures conquered by the Imperium over history. While they may be allowed to retain some vestige of their native culture, the choice is generally either adopt Imperial culture, be cut off from the Interstellar community, or be utterly destroyed.
I am intrigued by the idea of a Second Foundation like organization within the Third Imperium, quietly working to ensure that millennia-spanning events unfold according to some ancient psychohistory-informed plan. Are these the same people in charge of the Vilani Forbidden Technology? The Psionics Institutes?
What the OTU has its own Seldon Plan, designed to produce the Galaxiad? That the OTU and Lorenverse converge not through amazing coincidence but due to careful, mathematically driven planning?
On one hand, I want to maintain long-term manipulation of societies as a district Hiver schtick. But on the other hand I like the redemptive notion of the Vilani not as unimaginative, tedious functionaries -- but instead, cunning, patient heroes, struggling mightily and in secret with all their boring rules to save the very universe. Or to put it another way: The Vilani of the Ziru Sirka did not fear the future because it was unknown to them. They feared the future because they knew it all too well.
But then again, perhaps psychohistory is already implied in many of the basic assumptions of the OTU.
If the Vilani of the First Imperium were anything, they were likely highly effective social engineers. The Terrans might have been far better at the biological sciences, but the Vilani of the Ziru Sirka were probably supreme in the social sciences, producing unsurpassed sociologists and economists. The development of something like Asimov's psychohistory -- megascale statistical forecasting of human behavior -- would have been a natural extension of these talents.
A dependence upon psychohistory principles in planning and administrating the First Imperium would explain the Vilani's unprecedented success controlling such an expansive territory over such a long time period.
But as the Foundation series shows us, the single biggest limitation of psychohistory is its inability to account for unexpected and unprecedented variables. One mutant, albeit an extremely powerful one, nearly single-handedly destroys the Seldon Plan.
Cultural changes can happen quickly and bring great disruption. It is often noted that while the tech in Kubrick's 2001 still looks and feels relevant (he foresaw iPads!), the movie feels badly dated in its depiction of gender roles.
The Vilani at the time of Terran contact are often depicted as decadent and complacent, having ceased to innovate, making them easy pickings for the more vibrant and ascendant Terrans.
But what if this extreme conservatism was not the result of natural cultural stagnation, as with Gibbon’s Decline and Fall, but an intentional and rational strategy, adopted to facilitate psychohistory planning? This adoption could be both overtly coded as mores (we, as good citizens of the Imperium, reject disruptive technologies for the good of the Ziru Sirka) or covertly accomplished by a Second Foundation like secret organization that intervenes to suppress potentially disruptive memes or tech.
Adoption of psychohistory planning might explain the abrupt change in the First Imperium from technological innovation and territorial expansion to consolidation and stasis. The Vilani didn't get complacent: they got careful once psychohistory forecasting showed the potential collapse of the Imperium. Contact with the Terrans represented what they most feared: A “Mule-level” agent of psychohistory disruption.
Psychohistory accuracy demands stable and consistent culture. Psychohistory failure can result in unnecessary economic disruption, political turmoil, wars, and potentially collapse of the entire Interstellar community, with millennia of attendant suffering. So the stakes could not possibly be higher.
A pervasive reliance on psychohistory -- and an accompanying need for cultural stability and predictability -- would explain an awful lot about the OTU. In character the Third Imperium seems to have far more in common with the static Vilani First Imperium than the dynamic Terran Second.
Take Transhumanism. Sure, we get some very interesting glimpses of transhumanist tech in Agent of the Imperium, but clearly by 1105 this has not effected significant cultural changes in the Imperium. While Herbert had to invent the Butlerian Jihad to explain the lack of AI in the Dune universe, perhaps Traveller can point to psychohistory. Widespread development of AI across the Imperium would invalidate key formulae, wiping out centuries of careful planning. To combat this the Imperium has strong cultural values that consider such tech as deeply transgressive, passively discouraging adoption, as well as instruments such as patents, legal restrictions, and even Quarantine to actively eliminate such threats.
Or let us expand beyond Transhumanism to tech in general. Tech advancement evidently propagates slowly and unevenly across Interstellar communities. Perhaps this is due to something structural about Jump drive based societies. But perhaps this is also due to design: tech advancements move slowly to allow for measured assimilation. First Imperium Vilanis would probably consider the rapid tech progress of 20th/21st century Terra as an unmitigated disaster due to all of the social and economic disruptions created by new tech displacing old tech. How can one plan or manage an economy in such an environment? It's like building a house on shifting sand.
Psychohistory might also help explain the uniformity and stability of Imperial culture across large distances of time and space. Local worlds might have their own flavor, but there is remarkable consistency between Imperial worlds across different sectors and time periods; worlds that are incompatibly different end up interdicted or glassed. Look at all the different alien cultures conquered by the Imperium over history. While they may be allowed to retain some vestige of their native culture, the choice is generally either adopt Imperial culture, be cut off from the Interstellar community, or be utterly destroyed.
I am intrigued by the idea of a Second Foundation like organization within the Third Imperium, quietly working to ensure that millennia-spanning events unfold according to some ancient psychohistory-informed plan. Are these the same people in charge of the Vilani Forbidden Technology? The Psionics Institutes?
What the OTU has its own Seldon Plan, designed to produce the Galaxiad? That the OTU and Lorenverse converge not through amazing coincidence but due to careful, mathematically driven planning?
On one hand, I want to maintain long-term manipulation of societies as a district Hiver schtick. But on the other hand I like the redemptive notion of the Vilani not as unimaginative, tedious functionaries -- but instead, cunning, patient heroes, struggling mightily and in secret with all their boring rules to save the very universe. Or to put it another way: The Vilani of the Ziru Sirka did not fear the future because it was unknown to them. They feared the future because they knew it all too well.
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