RPG Popularity: MGT Traveller?

[saundby]

ICv2 has released their rankings for the top 5 RPGs for Q3 2010:

http://www.icv2.com/articles/news/18504.html

Traveller doesn't appear on this list. I'm going to see if I can get a look at the full list.

The list appears to reflect only hobby channel sales.

Using the same techniques they did (interviews with retailers and distro reps in my case) I get a different list. I'm sure I've got fewer data points than ICv2, but I check outside the hobby channel as well as in it.

I also split and group a bit differently than ICv2, but not a lot.

Here's my present list, FWIW, based on about 25 different unscientifically selected sources over the past 10 weeks or so:

1. PFRPG
2. D&D4
--
3. D&D3.5
4. WoD
5. WH40K RPG (DH, RT, etc.)
--
6. WFRP3
7. Gamma World 4th
8. Dresden Files (tied)
9. MGT Traveller (tied)
--
10. DC Adventures
11. Serenity

A -- marks a strong break in popularity level.

The D&D4 starter set is the star seller for D&D4 right now. Without it, PFRPG is outselling D&D4 handily. Including it, PFRPG wins by a whisker.

PFRPG is one of the things buoying 3.5 sales, along with 4.0 refuseniks and groups going retrograde from 4.0.

WoD is getting most of its sales outside the hobby channel. In the hobby channel it's below DF and Trav as far as I can tell. I guess it draws a more mainstream player (Twilight readers? Just a guess, I have no idea.)

DF and Traveller sales are neck and neck. DF is hot right now, but Trav's TMB, LBB1, and Beltstrike have shown staying power that the DF books may or may not match.

Some other things I've learned, anecdotally, from those selling product in brick and mortar as well as those who are online (and mixed outlets):

Most young players are introduced to roleplaying by an over-40 player.

Young players' second gaming contact is usually with their peers.

Nearly all "core" players <25 play with both older groups (avg age >35) and one or more groups their own age. I.e., youth groups tend to form around youths that play with oldsters.

Younger players favor:
1. what they know,
2. inexpensive,
3. "complete" rulesets.

What they know is both what games they've played and what milieux they are familiar with.

Inexpensive favors few core books, rules available used, or cheap PDFs.

Complete favors out of print and small required core book sets.

D&D4 seems to lose on all of these propositions (except for the new 4E Basic Set. I don't have a read on how many of these are nostalgia sales to older gamers vs. sales to younger gamers.)

PFRPG appears to hit all three since most new gamers are joining a d20 game of some variety, there are only 2 core books, and Paizo's PDFs are dirt cheap.

Anyway, I was interested to see DF at #5 on ICv2's list, since to my knowledge MGT Traveller is selling at least as well. I can't help but wonder if it's #6 on their list.

Does anyone know the next 5 from the ICv2 list? (And care to share?) Their list is the closest thing left to an independent industry sale rank that I know of. My experience also tells me that their discernment isn't the greatest. They tend to heavily favor whatever's being talked up the most, at least with respect to non-rpg properties. Solid longer-term sellers seem to get short shrift relative to stuff getting a spike in early sell through, even considering that they're using quarterly results.

*shrug*

It's all make-believe, anyway. Mine and theirs.

What's your take?

 

[aramis]

I'm surprised at the lack of WFRP3 on your list, and the position of WoD, tho what I've seen in high schools locally is 3.X, Rifts, WoD, and Traveller (T20). I've had a couple (2) students quietly ask me if I'm related to the guy in the T20 credits. (They are shocked when I answer that I AM the guy.)

I will say that my 12yodaughter is RPing with a friend's 12yo daughter while the adults are RPing in another room. They are not using any particular ruleset, but are using dice and character sheets of some form, and both started by playing with the adults.

 

[ShapeShifter]

a) I'm surprised to hear about a Dresden Files RPG. Never heard of it before.

b) It would be no shock that some iteration of D&D is leading the pack, though the reception of 4E's fraudulent "basic red box" has been unequivocally arctic among the Old School crowd (myself included). Shame on Wizbro. :nonono:

c) "refusenik" is a new term to me. I like.

d) There will always be at least two reactions to any innovation: those who decide to embrace it, discarding the previous rules (e.g. 3.0->3.5->4.0), and those who become sick of the multitudinous layers of convoluted rules and return to a simpler, more entertaining age of RPG history (again, myself included).

 

[saundby]

Good catch, Wil! WFRP3 should have been just under WH40K. When I first posted,I wondered how I got down the list all the way to Serenity. Now I know. I'll edit the list above.

I am surprised by WoD, too. I thought it was moribund. Apparently there's a popular new supplement, and core books still move. Book channel sales are far higher than hobby channel from what I see.

SS, Apparently Dresden Files is a popular media property, my kid tells me it's a post Harry Potter/post vampire fad version of Mickey Spillane and is surprised I haven't heard of it (actually, I've seen ads in Locus but paid no special attention.)

 

[spinwardpirate]

d) There will always be at least two reactions to any innovation: those who decide to embrace it, discarding the previous rules (e.g. 3.0->3.5->4.0), and those who become sick of the multitudinous layers of convoluted rules and return to a simpler, more entertaining age of RPG history (again, myself included).

Fwiw, there is a third category that I find myself in. I have no problem embracing new stuff, especially if it increases the overall level of fun in a game. Similarly, I have no problem running old stuff, especially if it is more fun than the new stuff. At the beginning of the year I played a ton of D&D4e and had lots of fun. Next year, for a change of pace, I plan on running some white box D&D, and hope it will be as much fun.

As for popularity... all these numbers are doing is tracking rpg sales, not games being played. One can only assume that the numbers are similar, but I personally wouldn't bet any money on it.

 

[shadowcat20]

If these numbers are just tracking sales then newer games will always rate higher. We already own the old stuff and no longer need to buy it.

 

[saundby]

I'm not suggesting that I can rate the popularity of, say, MGT to CT through sales numbers. That'd be silly.

It's also silly to suggest that, I think.

New is not the only thing that sells, either. There are a certain number of novelty sales, and a certain number of sales based on "it's what's on the shelf that fills the niche", but to be successful, there have to be follow up sales. That is, there have to be sales based on personal recommendations from gamer to gamer, from review recommendations, and from gamers in groups buying their own copies of the rules the group plays by.

Just as a movie might have a surge on opening based on marketing, it can't really be successful unless people go back to see it in the theater again, and bring their friends to see it, too.

So, it is at least a reflection of what people are playing. I doubt the ongoing sales of Traveller--the sales leader of a company with several prominent lines--is due to folks trying the waters on the basis of what happens to be on the shelf at the local store.

Yes, this info is limited to what manages a certain number of sales through retail channels. For both my numbers and those of ICv2 we're limited to what we can get from the endpoint retailers, and much of that is not scientifically collected. We rely on the retailers knowing their customers and knowing their stock, as well as what is moving. The fact that most retailers use computers and many use Point of Sale systems helps the data be more accurate.

Getting info on what people are actually playing is a red herring, I went down that road back in my college days, and for a few years after that. What I learned is that for every game you know about, there are 10 others going on quietly, of which you're only ever going to hear about 1-2 of even with close queries. And that means that for each of those there are 10 other games going on you don't know about.

There's a lot of gaming going on out there, with who knows what all rules. Which is pretty cool, really, even if it doesn't show up in sales figures.

 

[Vincimus]

Yeah, that list looks pretty reasonable (from what I hear on EnWorld, what I hear about being played on campus, and what my FLGS stocks / moves). The only one I'm really surprised about is Serenity, but I guess they're still putting out books (they had a setting guide come out this year, I think), so it's not that surprising. The Dresden Files game is supposed to be quite good, but I haven't managed to find a copy yet.

 

[saundby]

Serenity is still getting placed prominently by the booksellers. They and the folks who are buying it recognise the name. It still moves, at about the same level as the DC superheroes game. It doesn't seem to have much presence in the hobby channel, though.