Space Exploration?

[jstaley]

Apologies if I'm in the wrong subject area. I'm generating a home-brewed 2300AD scenario using Pocket Empires. Instead of generating individual factions (tried...failed. Booking nightmare!), I've generated an initial single global start point and will extrapolate the sub-factions from it. Am curious as to thoughts of what hypothetical % of Global GDP would be utilized for the aggregate of the Survey, Economic Extension, and Colonization phases. If I use the RAW, the RU numbers seem low so I substituted Striker PCI numbers in the Value of 1 RU portion. I've run the numbers as a Corporation but without a plausible number of space related entities or governor on the %, it seems high. I've thought to base it on RW numbers, but that seems low for 2300AD. Thoughts? Thanks.

 

[whartung]

In other games, cultures are given a "militancy" rating to help determine how motivated they are, in this case, to grow or build their military.

You need to come up with some kind of exo-system zeal rating to discern what they're willing to sacrifice to explore and get off world.

Less than 1% is more than enough for a program to chart nearby stars. It's just a few ships and crews. They're pricey, but not at a planetary scale they aren't.

Colonization is a different problem as now you're bleeding population. A 2% population growth is actually quite high, but depending on your population size, even moving 1% of the population is a lot of work. That would be 70M people for Earth right now. That's a LOT of ships, plus all of the problems of 70M folks showing up and landing at Alpha Zeta Minor one year. Very difficult to incorporate that many people.

That's just to give some perspective on what the numbers might look like.

 

[Spinward Flow]

Am curious as to thoughts of what hypothetical % of Global GDP would be utilized for the aggregate of the Survey, Economic Extension, and Colonization phases

No more than 1% of GDP.

Space is quite literally the work of the one percenters.

 

[jstaley]

In other games, cultures are given a "militancy" rating to help determine how motivated they are, in this case, to grow or build their military.

If memory serves, there was something similar in World Builders Handbook, I'll have a look there. Thanks. I tried based upon RW migration rates, but it just seemed off. Suspension of disbelief fail on my part probably. Again thanks.

 

[jstaley]

No more than 1% of GDP.

That was my initial thought as well. I ran a sequence for a faction (USA) and busted the pro-rated budget. Ships designed using TNE FFS, ship finance TNE Core, and colonization from TNE WTH. I suspect an error on my part but can't yet identify it. Thanks.

 

[Timerover51]

How large is the world's population? Is it controlled by a single government or is it "balkanized"? What are its planetary characteristics? Earthlike or barely habitable? Without that data, estimating anything based on the world's Gross Domestic Product is impossible.

 

[Condottiere]

Migration is a combination of push and pull factors.

 

[jstaley]

How large is the world's population? Is it controlled by a single government or is it "balkanized"? What are its planetary characteristics? Earthlike or barely habitable? Without that data, estimating anything based on the world's Gross Domestic Product is impossible.

Apologies for the late reply...
Population: 10,000,000,000 utilizing RAW
Government: Balkanized
Characteristics: Terra (TL-12) Resources 15 RAW
Gross World Product: I utilized PCI 16,000 x Population
Individual National Gross Domestic Product: GWP/% roughly in-line with current %. SWAG to lower the GDP of OPEC nations to account for the reduction of petrol production (i.e they ran out). SWAG to increase the GDP of "clean energy" producing nations. Some nations have combined (i.e N & S Korea).

I am trying to develop the background for a "realistic" expansion from Terra. All systems within Jump-2 are "colonized" by 2155 (have not run the numbers or developed). In this scenario, TL-12 is achieved in 2252. For simplicity, all nations achieve TL-12 at the same time. Their limiting factor is their GDP.

I'm pretty satisfied with my GDP numbers. My issue is the RAW discretionary budgets are excessive (not knocking them, it's my OCD). If I read The Space Report correctly, currently the US spends about 2% of GDP on space (all items both government and private). If memory serves it is like 0.53% globally. If I plug this number in expansion is anemic. 1% works (though not at the granular level, yet). The "Gold Rush" aspect is what I'm missing.

 

[jstaley]

Migration is a combination of push and pull factors.

Agreed, but what is a good starting point. All I have is a mass of people which I need to place in various systems each turn (year). In RAW I don't have the granular data to identify between a Nation off-loading bodies onto a garden world, a corporation extracting resources, or a religious sect trying to escape persecution. I'll get there, it just has to make sense in my head.

 

[Condottiere]

Assuming mass migration, rather than cherry picking, like correcting gender imbalances or attracting gifted individuals, is the pull passive, such as migration to a land of promise and opportunity, or is it active, such as a corporation looking for settlers and workers?

Is the push passive, in the sense that there are no opportunities for advancement, or active, refugees, penal colonists, overcrowding?

 

[atpollard]

I suggest a “Space as a business” model for estimating finding. Perhaps something like this:

1. 1% of planetary GDP is invested in “Space Industries Inc.” every year.
2. This 1% investment funds an “Industry” (asteroid mining, solar satellites, zero-G drugs, etc) worth 10x the investment in “Space GDP”.
3. 1% of the “Space GDP” funds exploration & 10% of the “Space GDP” is reinvested in growing “Space Industries”.

Here is just a quick and dirty budget for 10 years of growth (to illustrate the concept):
Planetary GDP = 1000 MCR

• Year 1 = 10 MCR planetary investment = 100 MCR Space GDP = 1 MCR Exploration
• Year 2 = 10 MCR planetary investment + 10 MCR Space GDP investment = 300 MCR Space GDP = 3 MCR Exploration
• Year 3 = 10 MCR planetary investment + 30 MCR Space GDP investment = 700 MCR Space GDP = 7 MCR Exploration
• Year 4 = 10 MCR planetary investment + 70 MCR Space GDP investment = 1,500 MCR Space GDP = 15 MCR Exploration
• Year 5 = 10 MCR planetary investment + 150 MCR Space GDP investment = 3,100 MCR Space GDP = 31 MCR Exploration
• Year 6 = 10 MCR planetary investment + 310 MCR Space GDP investment = 6,300 MCR Space GDP = 63 MCR Exploration
• Year 7 = 10 MCR planetary investment + 630 MCR Space GDP investment = 12,700 MCR Space GDP = 127 MCR Exploration
• Year 8 = 10 MCR planetary investment + 1270 MCR Space GDP investment = 25,500 MCR Space GDP = 255 MCR Exploration
• Year 9 = 10 MCR planetary investment + 2550 MCR Space GDP investment = 51,100 MCR Space GDP = 511 MCR Exploration
• Year 10 = 10 MCR planetary investment + 5110 MCR Space GDP investment = 102,300 MCR Space GDP = 1023 MCR Exploration

The vast wealth to be made from new space technology (like the profits from Electronics and Computer technology that transformed society) creates the incentive for people to WANT to move to space. Within 4 years, Space Colonies generated more GDP than Earth. You can adjust the percentages, this was just a first draft to illustrate the concept.