What happened after?

[TKalbfus]

The fact is a high tech society was created out of a Victorian era Steam age society in less than 100 years starting with a population of 1 or 2 billion. I'm not exactly sure what the exact World population figures for the Year 1900 were, but I believe it was in that ball park. If 100 years was enough time the first time around, it should be enough time for a World population starting at 1 billion the second time too. Also not every factory will be destroyed in World War III, and don't forget there was outsourcing in alot of third world countries, and Japan, that amufacturing behemoth was untouched. Exploding nuclear bombs in space doesn't fry all the computer chips globally. If for instance Japan wasn't attacked, you can be sure nuke bombs weren't exploded over its territory in space either since both will be considered an attack against Japan. I'm surprised Japan didn't become a superpower like France considering that Japan is less socialist than France for one thing. Japan manufactures alot. I'm sure you would see alot of Toyotas on the road in Post World War III Europe and America.

 

[PBI]

Who said they weren't attacked, at least by EMP?

And even if Japan wasn't attacked directly, they have to import almost everything, so when the vast majority of the oil refineries go poof, so does Japan.

Also, the arguement that says because the Victorians did it, so can a damaged modern society doesn't wash, either. Putting that view forward ignores a huge variety of factors, not the least of which is that the Victorians were able to advance the Industrial Revolution relatively unhindered. They didn't have to rebuild a shattered society, nor did they have to worry about rediscovering more basic technlogy, since they were used to that tech.

Today, most people don't know how to survive in a mostly non-industrial society if they are part of one. While there are farmers out there, there aren't near the numbers there were 50 years ago; most folks today have been trained in skill sets that require a functioning industrial society. The more basic survival skills cannot be whipped up in time to prevent a catastrophic drop in population, which is where at least half the casualties in the T2K war stem from. Lots died in the nuke attackes, but many more died because food distribution networks collapsed and there were too few people and resources left to provide food for the survivors.

 

[Sgt Biggles]

Originally posted by PBI:
....most people don't know how to survive in a mostly non-industrial society.....

Japan was attacked, with nukes, in late 1997, heavily damaging its industrial capacity. The attacks occurred when the Russians went after Sakhalin Islands and the Kuriles. While the nukes did considerable damage, it was the following civil unrest which devastated the major cities. (Twilight 2000 Timeline v2)

I did some checking and the estimated world population in 1900 was roughly 1.5 billion which increased to just over 2 billion in 1950 and upwards of 6.5+ billion today. The majority, 75%, live in underdeveloped countries. Disease, hunger and victimization by the surviving authority figures will wipe out 80% of these people. Within the industrial countries the survival rate will be much better, say for argument, 25% are killed off for one reason or another. This is both good and bad. Its bad because of the shear loss of life involved. Its good, because the majority of the deaths come from the less educated, less skilled demographic. The saying, “Only the strong survive” becomes reality. Society has been dropped to the foundation of existence, but it is a strong foundation. Most of the knowledge required for a recovery has already been learned and is available. It is easier to train a new batch of skilled workers then it is to learn what hasn’t been learned.

Throughout the world there are groups who like to re-enact history, from medieval times to the old west. Some of these folks have already learned some basic skills which will help out their community. (I imagine we are talking about 1% of the surviving population) For instance, my wife can take wool from a sheep, spin it to thread, create natural dyes, weave the fabric and make clothing. I know how to make soap and candles and handcrafted weapons and tools. I make armor using hand tools so I have some basic, very basic, blacksmithing skills. These would be skills we could use to survive. There are a large number of people who keep small gardens as a hobby who, when faced with the post Twilight world would be able to grow large areas. Most everybody has something they could do to assist their community group. As PBI stated, most people don’t have survival skills, so exposure to weather, lack of basic first aid knowledge and the inability to find safe water will be a problem.

My guess is that folks living in the same general area, say within 1 mile of each other, will band together and combine their skills and knowledge to survive. Other groups might form based on religion (The Mormons, Adventists or Mennonites for example) or employers (Like Microsoft or a large factory), making small villages so to speak. The Amish will have a distinct advantage as they tend to live in out of the way places and already flourish in non tech environment. Those people who are not willing to work or become freeloaders will be chased off. Within the new little village leaders will emerge and many people will naturally fall into little niches they are best suited for. The village will become very tight, very quickly and outsiders will not be welcome. The little village will grow as the founding villagers bring in family and friends from around the old city. Alliances will be found with other small villages which formed the same way and limited trade will begin. Eventually several of the small villages will combine. So a city like Salem, Oregon, might end up as half a dozen smaller cities with in the first year or two after the Twilight War ends.

In a nutshell, those without skills and unwilling to work as part of a communal society will die. How would you and your families do?

 

[TKalbfus]

Those who can't adapt will die within the first 20 years. Those people who are left will have adapted. I'm being very generous with that first 20 years. Since all the people who can't adapt will be dead, they can't linger on and produce offspring for the next 300 years and provide an excuse for non-progress. The 20 years after the war will be the recovery period, they won't still be recovering by 2100 AD or 2200 AD.

 

[PBI]

The only problem with Sgt Biggles' figures about the industrial nations' casualties is that in the T2K v2.0 book, most NATO countries suffer 45-50% casualties as a result from the nuclear attacks.

As far as the re-enactment groups go, only a small percentage of those folks have the required skills. I'm in such a group and only a tiny handful of the others might have some of the needed skills.

The real fly in the ointment will be how many of the skilled and educated will survive. A great many of those filling skilled positions in society today will not have the slightest clue how to function in an effectively semi-industralized society and there won't be a whole lot of people left to teach the others how to survive.

As I've said time and again, the recovery period will depend on if you use the Great Game or simply look at T2K in isolation. As part of the Great Game, 30-50 yrs for more-or-less complete recovery. As a stand alone, based on Howling Wilderness, I don't think 100 yrs is an unreasonable recovery period.

 

[TKalbfus]

PBI said,

The only problem with Sgt Biggles' figures about the industrial nations' casualties is that in the T2K v2.0 book, most NATO countries suffer 45-50% casualties as a result from the nuclear attacks.

NATO countries and Warsaw Pact Countries aren't the only ones their are. How about Switzerland? How about Finland? How about Mongolia? Austrailia, Austria. How about Ireland? Don't forget Mexico, Costa Rica, Brazil, Argentina, Indonesia, Malasia. The Phillipeans, Bolivia and others.

 

[PBI]

Originally posted by Tom Kalbfus:
PBI said, </font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr /> The only problem with Sgt Biggles' figures about the industrial nations' casualties is that in the T2K v2.0 book, most NATO countries suffer 45-50% casualties as a result from the nuclear attacks.

NATO countries and Warsaw Pact Countries aren't the only ones their are. How about Switzerland? How about Finland? How about Mongolia? Austrailia, Austria. How about Ireland? Don't forget Mexico, Costa Rica, Brazil, Argentina, Indonesia, Malasia. The Phillipeans, Bolivia and others. </font>[/QUOTE]Yes, Tom. Quite true. The 2.0 SB also states the global casualty rate reached 50% by the time the diseases which had been under control had finished going through the population.

 

[TKalbfus]

What would it be like playing a Swiss character in the Twilight 2000 campaign. I imagine that his country would be affected by a fuel shortage, but the trains would be running and the coal mines too, so their would be power delivered to homes. Swiss citizens would have to do alot more walking where they previously relied on cars. If Swiztzerland has electric trains, that would be fortunate. Now to participate in what's going on in the rest of Europe, he would have to leave his country. I imagine that he would take a train to the border and their would be a checkpoint with Swiss borderguards on one side, and across the border the Twilight War would be raging. What do you suppose he would see on the otherside of the border checkpoint in say Italy, France, or Austria? I guess France would have its border guards. Italy, I don't know, I imagine their involved in the fighting. I believe Austria would be neutral, so to get to the fighting, our Swiss citizen would have to cross Austria and get to Austria's Border with West Germany, then there would be Austrian border guards and perhaps someone on the otherside of the Border in Germany.

 

[PBI]

Acutally, Austria was involved in the fighting, IIRC, if only because the Italian army invaded through Austria. Also IIRC, Switzerland does have some limited power generation available, as they were left pretty much alone, though their industry was damaged by the EMP.

It also depends on which version of the timeline is being used. In 2.0, for example, Germany was united before the war.

 

[jfwking]

The Population drop to 20/30% of pre war levels would give 1.2 to 1.5 billion, just about sustainable.
In terms of the howling winter there is a school of thought that says we are in a mild ice age right now but its being held back by global warming. Cut carbon emissions 90% as a result of the war and add atmospheric dust layers kicked up by all those nukes and we have an ice age.
Tech recovery after the war will either be quick or slow. If enough remains intact to allow goverments to restart power networks, get the factories working again and repair the damage then you are looking at a few years to restore tech level followed by a long time repairing the damage.
If however enough damage is done to make restoration a huge task taking many years then you have a problem with your staff. If it takes you 10 years to get your first computer working again then anyone you have left with computer skills will be 10 years forgotten and any new staff you train will be learning by rote from dog eared tatty old books. Give it 30 years before you can start thinking about putting comms satelites back and suddenly all your staff in that field with actual experience have died of old age or radiation cancer.
Now combine an ice age with the time and effort going into keeping the people alive rather than putting a car in every garage and you can easily end up with several generations before you are starting to get back to the "golden age" of technology.
Also allow for human nature. "Hey your oil field and refinery survived the war and is still working" Que invasion from whats left of nation next door.
If the bulk of your population is moving to the equator to avoid the glaciers then most of your hi tech is left behind.
You don't need to reduce your population to primitives if the bulk of every nations effort is going towards staying alive and in control. Leave it 100 years before you even start to rebuild the internet and such like. The US could start its computers earlier but the WWW is toast without satelites and trans-oceanic cables. The french could rebuild thier satelite facilities but if the upper atmosphere is full of mildly "hot" dust all you get is static from your satelite networks for years. Etc etc.
One thing to remember, the colapse was not bad enough to destroy the national identities of people. The US/UK/France/Germany are still there so there must have been a continuation of identity from prewar to post recovery.
My .15 creds worth (allowing for tax/Inflation)

 

[csmith]

I always pushed everything to gether in my playing of twilight:2000 and 2300ad and traveller. I got into traveller in the megatraveller era so I had a time line that listed that terra had the twilight wars and that 2300AD was the beginning of the rule of man. I read Challenge and got into the other systems after reading some of the adventures. and they all looked like what I already had going.

I played 1st ed Twilight:2000 and 2300AD as history and back fill for the Traveller adventures I was running in the solomani rim at the time.

I had great fun with them all being used together.
France was a super power in 2300AD so I figured at some point it recovered and became a power.