Then what do you do if you need to withdraw? Either you sacrifice some of your riders/fighters behind or expose your (fewer) tenders to fire.
Fighters have been, and always will be, attrition units. And as you say, it is cheaper to replace a BR or two to stiffen the fighters.
Four ships doesn't give enough of a sample, 32 does
Only if you are looking at a paper, statistical analysis. This is dangerous and has unintended consequences. See the lead-up to any of the following for details: Pearl Harbor, the Nazi invasion of Poland, the Nazi Russian Campaign, the fall of Singapore, MacArthur's charge to the Yalu, the Vietnam war (both the French and American versions), The second American invasion of Iraq, ...I can go on for quite a while with this.
But let's say your statistical example is correct-ish. Five percent of 32 units is 1.6 units- or two units more often than not. Five percent of 4 units is .2 units- or zero units more often than not. I have done the math, and while the sample size for large projections is too small
in both cases (32 units is statistically just as untenable as 4, if you disagree check with a statistics professor). What we have for both sets is 95% of the time you are sitting with 30 units and 95% of the time I am sitting with all 4 of mine.
So you have 30 BRs and I have 32 in this gun fight. And 5% of the time you have 32 BRs and I have 24. I will take those odds every time.
Ahhh, but I don't have to go to eight separate destinations, I can go to one if I like, or two or three... The key here is that the eight separate rider/tenders have far greater strategic flexibility than the single eight rider/tender.
Also its important to look beyond a single squadron or even combat deployments. In reality no major navy will build a fleet consisting solely of riders or solely of ships.
Lets look at two theoretical states...snip
So, when again was it decided that we are only dealing with small states? What about state with 7 worlds, 10, 100?
So, you can send your 8 in pairs, or any combo up to 8. Great. Each section of less than 8 will still pack less punch. And in the stack of 8 configuration arrival time still means getting defeated piecemeal.
So you can potentially hit more targets. Fine. With lesser combat power at each target, potentially causing you significant losses at each location due to this lower combat power.
Yes, if all of your ships are there at the time combat begins you have 16 targets, 8 in the battle line and 8 in the reserve. Great. Once breakthrough begins your BRs will be just as unable to escape as mine, since there is really only one optimum design for these things at a given tonnage and so we will both have the same agility. So discussing the BR's ability to disengage is a bit disingenuous.
Now, we come to the last bit. You are arguing that having even 1 multirider is a waste of resources. I can agree to that, if we are really only dealing with a VERY small polity, like either of your examples. However, a couple of multiriders as part of a fleet as a whole of a medium-small (even 5 moderately populated planets) or larger polity make good sense. It is the definition of Power Projection. At any time one of these could jump in and launch a strike in moments, while a bunch of individual jump-shuttle/BR combos would have to wait for the force to assemble, giving the target prep time.
In this we are going to have to agree to disagree. You will not convince me that having a few multiriders as part of a force structure is not a good idea, and I can't make you see that it is.