Average number of skills earned per term

[Daddicus]

In another thread, aramis mentioned that early LBBs give about 1.4 skills per term, and LBB 5 and later average about 2 skills per term. Does anybody know anyplace where this is calculated or documented?

Or, does anybody know how one would make such calculations?

Thanks!

 

[BlackBat242]

Simple... roll up 50 or so characters with each book... then look at the numbers.

Seriously, those of us who have played for many years have seen this difference by doing just that... although the characters were created for games, not as research.

 

[dean]

In another thread, aramis mentioned that early LBBs give about 1.4 skills per term, and LBB 5 and later average about 2 skills per term. Does anybody know anyplace where this is calculated or documented?

Or, does anybody know how one would make such calculations?

Thanks!

The odds of rolling a skill per term x the number of times rolled per term.

Odds:

Roll ________ Probability
-- 2 ---- 1/36, or 2.78% 
-- 3 ---- 1/18, or 5.56%
-- 4 ---- 1/12, or 8.33% 
-- 5 ---- 1/9, or 11.11% 
-- 6 ---- 5/36, or 13.89% 
-- 7 ---- 1/6, or 16.67%
-- 8 ---- 5/36, or 13.89% 
-- 9 ---- 1/9, or 11.11%
- 10 ---- 1/12, or 8.33%
- 11 ---- 1/18, or 5.56%
- 12 ---- 1/36, or 2.78%

So, for example, if you have to roll a 6+ on 2D6 to get a skill, the odds of rolling a 6-12 are 72.23%.

If this was the roll for each term (books 4-5-7, with a term being 4 years), then there's about a 3/4 chance you'd get 3 skills during the term.

Of course, you may have to calculate each chance separately, as the assignment may determine the probability of gaining a skill.

I am sure there are plenty of online tutorials about statistics you could read to educate yourself more. In addition, if you search the forums here, I know Aramis and others have posted extensive treatises on the probability of achieving skills in each of the CT systems.

 

[Sir Brad]

For Book 1 Character Generation their was an article in JTAS #23 that covered this and a bunch of other stuff, the average Skills gained per term across all Services was 1.6, but their was a lot of differences between the different services eg. Navy & Others scored only 1.2, Scouts 1.3, Merchants 1.7, Marines 1.9 and Army got 2.5.

terms served came to (mean) 3.7 across all services (for characters who survived to Muster out)but terms served for each service where Navy 3.3, Marines 3.1, Army 2.8, Scouts 4.6, Merchants 5.4, Others 3.7.

 

[aramis]

Simple... roll up 50 or so characters with each book... then look at the numbers.

Seriously, those of us who have played for many years have seen this difference by doing just that... although the characters were created for games, not as research.

You sum the probabilities for a given service's various options to get a skill.

For CT basic army:

Per term: 1 skill (36/36)
Commission: 5+ (30/36)
Promotion: 6+ (26/36)
total is 92/36=2 20/36=2 5/9 or about 2.5...

but, sustained, you can't sustain 2.5, as commission isn't possible more than once, and promotion requires a commission. Survival is ignored - in CT, failed survival is a dead character, unplayable.

So you build a decision tree. You note the probability and skill total at each decision point.

I'm working up a tree in Numbers; I'll have ≤5 Terms accurate numbers shortly for the army - it takes over an hour just to build the tables... Capping at 5 terms out of sheer boredom from splitting lines.

But note: the trees get pretty big

 

[aramis]

Redid the sheet due to a problem in treeing... and got it to term 7.
This includes the effects of failed reenlistment, but not failed survival.

coming up with the following numbers:
Average Terms: 2.3448
Average Rank: 2.4832
Average Skill Total: 7.7512
Average Skills per term Raw: 4.0006 WR WS WS/T
But note: that includes the 1st term bonus, the service skill, and the rank skill, so the actual average per term without those is (7.7512-3)/2.3448=4.7512/2.3448=2.026
The Army really lumps them in...

Punched in the navy numbers
Average Terms:3.2310
Average Rank: 0.9057
Average Skill Total: 5.1607
Average Skills per term Raw:1.7651
And note that the 2 skill levels for R&S skills are both attribute gains and are way up the chart.

 

[Sir Brad]

Due to Bonus Skill at Enlistment and Commission and the relative shortness of Army Careers (three Terms if you round up) your looking at on average 7 skills or Attribute Improvements over a normal career, If you round up the average for all Careers to the nearest whole number you are one skill better off.

of cause if you luck out on re-enlistment your average skills per term drops sharply.

if you want more skills over your total career you go with Merchant Service, although skills per term is only an average of 1.7 your average 5.4 terms give you 9-10 skills.

 

[Daddicus]

OK, thanks guys!