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Book 2 economics, again! Beating the dead horse...

Originally posted by TheEngineer:
One statement in the header of the MT RefGuide about trade and commerce strikes me for years:
Each world mainly tries to get along on its own.
That increased my impression, that Travellers and space faring people are still a tiny minority and that interstellar trade and traffic is a regular thing, but not as vast as sometimes propagated.
And how vast is that actually? You see, the interstellar trade volumes in GT are really very, very modest. Compared to the per capita trade volumes on Earth today, they're minuscule. It's just that when you multiply even a tiny amount of trade with trillions of people, pretty soon it amounts to something substantial.

To me, one of the most fascination aspects about the TU is, that it keeps information about "absolut stats" (trade or traffic volumes, navy size, BSPs etc) of the TU so vage.
So, this offers the oppertunity to interprete the TU as well as an enterprising monster with vast trade volumes, which is pressed in its borders as well as an environment, where interstellar trade and travel is still a fascinating adventure and maybe even white spaces in its inner territory...
The TU is really kind of polymorphic.
To me, that's a flaw. You see, it only works when Marc Miller and his cohorts refrain from publishing more material. Otherwise you wake up one day and find that there's a new product out that has a throwaway line about (in this case) some ship or corporation or whatever that relies on a specific interpretation of that hitherto so vague subject. And unless you're really lucky, it won't agree with your interpretation. So you either have to change your TU or ignore the new stuff. Fair enough. But what's the difference between ignoring it once it crops up, or ignoring it from the start?

I have nothing whatsoever against alternate rules in the rulebooks, like rules for a 'massive trade Imperium', a 'medium trade Imperium', a 'minimal trade Imperium', and, yes, even a 'ridiculouskly low trade Imperium'. But although all these different versions of the Imperium may be perfectly plausible (except the last one ;) ), they can't all be true for the same universe. And the OTU is one, and only one, specific universe.


Hans
 
Just a note...

I reread Keith's Adventures in Traveller column from JTAS the other day.

There's nothing in it that implies that CT trade is broken. He just talks about how typical mercenary types glaze over and become obsessed with cargo when they get around to discovering the trade rules. He talks about how to keep the players adventuring once they figure out how to make tons of cash... and he even goes so far as to describe how to allow the players to set up their own little trade firms.

From Keith's perspective... the trade rules aren't broken. They don't have to describe some sort of self-consistent model. It's just... like UWP's and char-gen mini-games... it's just what you've got to work with when you're playing Traveller.

He makes it sound like the Traveller ruleset was this incredible thing that could transport people to an amazing universe of adventure and promise. At least... for a little while, anyway... before they grew up....

:(
 
Hi !

Hans, the published material is really a kind of problem.
Well I got CT, MT, TNE and a bit of T20, but in fact these present 4 times a somehow "vage" TU.
I have to admit GT (guess thats the new stuff you're talking about - I just dont know anything else "new") brings up really new aspects here, as it tries to make many of those vage aspects more specific.
But GT is just not in my portfolio :\
I'm not ignoring it. I just don't have it.
So, its perhaps GT that turns the old vage TU into a more specific one


Anyway You're right, that a 'ridiculouskly low trade Imperium' is kind of ..... ridiculous
.
But using my old rulesets, I just not even know what 'ridiculouskly low trade' would mean (thinking of absolute numbers).

Point is, its maybe not important for the individual Traveller character. At least it wasnt important for any player I knew.
As I said in one of the lasts post: its a difference, if you want to define an interface to a system (players perspective) or makroscopic parts of the system (e.g. a consistent rule covered trade system) itself.

regards,

Mert
 
OK, so how does a liner make money? After putting together a LBB2, 500dT, 35 Hi-Pax/20 Lo-Pax liner, I show it making 1/2 the necessary monthly payments. :( And, yes, that is making two J1 trips a month (and not taking into account the annual maintenance period). Even with the stewards running double duty as gunners (all but the chief gunner and a chief steward), and using their 4 staterooms, I get only about 60% revenue required.

(Its 500dT, M2, J2, 20 Lo-Pax, 35 Hi-Pax, 15 crew without double duty, 263MCr cost.)
 
The cost of ships is far too high, especially considering they're supposed to be made in high tech shipyards. That's my lazy solution, since every problem with trade economics lead right back to the same place. It makes no economic sense to buy small traders at 'canon' prices. Just use charters, and you'll do much better, if you insist on following a hinky set of 'canon' economic rules. Also some of the prices of trade goods are too low to justify interstellar shipping, or too high to make them affordable at available destinations a lot of the time.

The 'trade game' should reflect the complexity of trade in a large 'Empire', and it shold be fairly lucrative to justify the huge price of ships and attract investors and traders, or, you need to just divide the ship prices by 4 or more.

The huge military budget of local and sector wide fleets should be assumed to bring the cost of producing private ships much lower than they are, just as it does many goods we use today.
 
Originally posted by TheEngineer:
Yep. No guidelines. Thats true.
But honestly, running Oberlindes seems not to be Traveller life. Guess thats a prior career thing.
Anyway large scale operations provide a vast amount of seeds for real Travellers

So having a kind of rough guideline would be nice....
Too bad GDW never made Supplement 19: Bazillion Credit Megacorporation! :D

What Trillion Credit Squadron did for large-scale starship combat, Bazillion Credit Megacorporation does for large-scale trade and commerce in the OTU.
 
Fritz: one way is to go to 3.5 jumps per month, using shuttles to the 100d limit. You'll need a broker dirtside to have passengers waiting, and make the roll for last-minute passengers.

The other is to assume that any unused cargo space will be speculated with heavily, using brokers at both ends so that dirtside time is 1-2 days, not 5-7.

Under T20, one also has the option of Double Occupancy on the passenger staterooms.
 
Originally posted by Fritz88:
OK, so how does a liner make money? After putting together a LBB2, 500dT, 35 Hi-Pax/20 Lo-Pax liner, I show it making 1/2 the necessary monthly payments. :( And, yes, that is making two J1 trips a month (and not taking into account the annual maintenance period). Even with the stewards running double duty as gunners (all but the chief gunner and a chief steward), and using their 4 staterooms, I get only about 60% revenue required.

(Its 500dT, M2, J2, 20 Lo-Pax, 35 Hi-Pax, 15 crew without double duty, 263MCr cost.)
A regularly sceduled liner has ticket agents at both ports it services (or all ports if it services more than two). This means that passengers are ready to board as soon as the arriving passengers have disembarked. The liner thus doesn't have to scrounge around for passengers for five day but can take off right away. This allows it to jump every 10 days (arguyably every 9 days on the average) and achieve (35 or even 40) jumps per year. That improves the situation a lot over 25 jumps per year.

(And then it charges the true cost of the passage (expenses plus a reasonable profit divided by number of passengers carried), which is less for a one-parsec jump than for a two-parsec jump and more for a three-parsec jump, and even more for four-, five-, and six-parsec jumps ;) ).


Hans
 
Well, far-trader posted on the other thread where I posed this that I should reduce my drives to 1G, and drop my computer a bit. If I reduce enough, it comes closer.

3 jumps per month would make a huge difference, too. at 350KCr per jump for a full load of Hi-Pax, and 20KCr with a full Lo-Berth, that works out to almost a profit. Even with the M-2/J-2. Thanks, Hans and Aramis.
 
Also, one other caveat: that expense of KCr2 per person per two weeks (TTB, p52, p55). It isn't per Stateroom. Now, if one crunches 3 trips in four weeks, it is reasonable to pay KCr4 per 3 trips.

Remember also that any spec-trade good worth more than Cr5000 per ton is usually going to beat out freight for value per ton... assuming decent brokers. With really good brokers (who can buy a lot up to several weeks before arrival, and hence have 3+ tries to find something with decent mods), one can routinely get mod shifts under bk2 of 8+ points (-2 to buy from good, +3 to sell from good, +3 to sell from broker).with a -2, the worst purchase roll is a 10; the worst sale with a +6 is an 8; the odds are incredibly good.
 
Yeah, I was figuring the life support for a full load times two for the whole month's expenses.

I don't think 15dT of cargo is going to help much (well, before I reduce the ship cost) to reduce the deficit. It will help a tiny bit, though.
 
Speculation with it can yield up to KCr 30 for a decent month; KCr300 on a good month (Bk2 rates), above the baseline for freight. with a whopper of a roll, MCr15 is possible...
 
Originally posted by Aramis:
Speculation with it can yield up to KCr 30 for a decent month; KCr300 on a good month (Bk2 rates), above the baseline for freight. with a whopper of a roll, MCr15 is possible...
It's a wonder more people aren't doing it.


Hans
 
IMTU I take it as given that book 2 trade is an abstraction for trade at the individual level, and take it from there. I keep the costs and revenues as stated in LBB2, and use the rule decreed price fixing to indicate "imperial decreed price fixing;" IM NON-OTU TU it's a deliberate effort on the part of the Imperium to reserve long-jump trade as a tool of Imperial policy, and leave it at that. (Bear in mind, also, that my Imperium is a vast domain of nine home SUBsectors and commands tribute from worlds perhaps even two whole subsectors beyond that - so we're not talking 3I scales here, at all.)

I think a lot of the rationalizing about Book 2 trade & ship finance comes down to this: we as players know that with a little bit of startup cash, any ship - even a measly little scout - can do great things with speculation. That, in fact, you have to play your cards with big stupid not to.(Buy high! Sell low!) The question is whether this phenomenon is recognized among in-game financiers.

IMTU, in order to be assured of bank financing a la Book 2, a prospective shipowner has to be able to demonstrate that the ship can make a profit on the cargo/passenger carrier model: any ship that can do this will do just fine at speculation, as well. (Hence the ubiquitous Free Trader.) Not to say that this is the only means of financing a ship, but anything else - subsidies, or loans from non-bank, higher risk sources (Local nobs? Loansharks? Cabal of dirtside merchants looking to make an investment?) will have to be roleplayed out. Since most games in my experience never go beyond a few jumps worth of adventures before players scatter, there isn't much point in going into too much detail until a player starts asking for it.
 
Well, I ran some new numbers. If you:
-reduce all the drives and PP to C's (so, J1 and M1)
-you factor in standard hull and standard design
-double up duties to get the 4 extra gunners
-reduce the computer to a 3
-hire brokers on three planets (3k/mo each)
-fill the ship every time
-run mail
-and run 3 jumps a month

you can net 135KCr a month. And, that's before any speculation.
 
Originally posted by Maladominus:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by TheEngineer:
Yep. No guidelines. Thats true.
But honestly, running Oberlindes seems not to be Traveller life. Guess thats a prior career thing.
Anyway large scale operations provide a vast amount of seeds for real Travellers

So having a kind of rough guideline would be nice....
Too bad GDW never made Supplement 19: Bazillion Credit Megacorporation! :D

What Trillion Credit Squadron did for large-scale starship combat, Bazillion Credit Megacorporation does for large-scale trade and commerce in the OTU.
</font>[/QUOTE]Actually, this is exactly what they should have done by the time MT came along. The 'official' background makes the megacorps a big deal, and the March Harrier adventure series brought in the 'trade war' thing, so a detailed interstellar business game makes an excellent possibility that would interest the more sophisticated players, and players who aren't into D&D In Space type campaigns.

Tied in with the various 'Belters' articles, the Knightfall adventure book, WTH, and all that stuff, they already have a pretty good shell outline for a hefty supplement or sourcebook that could be used for just about any version of Traveller.

There is probably already a lot of fan produced stuff out there, though, so maybe they don't see much of market for it, I guess.
 
Originally posted by daryen:
I just forgot there was a whole cottage industry dedicated to not letting [the trade rules] work. The surprising part is that group includes the game designer. Go figure.
I think it is more like "we pulled these numbers out of thin air and insist that they are canon despite two decades of arguments that they don't work."
Originally posted by Bill Cameron:
If you have a system that already works IYTU, you're search is over. The OTU, every other personal TU, and all of it don't amount to a damn thing.

...Don't bother trying to 'prove' how it should and can work elsewhere. Simply post your ideas with IMTU prominently stamped all over them. When the College of Canonista Cardinals comes calling, point to the IMTU stamps.

Meanwhile, other GMS, who are actually play Traveller instead of merely playing with Traveller, will be merrily using your LBB:2 economics ideas to gasp create fun for themselves and their players.

Who have thought it? ;)
There are thousands of players (undoubtedly significant in the overall percentage) who wish the rules would be fixed so they work as well as any of a dozen common house rules.

Meanwhile, the designers seem to run about with their fingers in their ears. Who would have thought it? ;)
Originally posted by far trader:
It IS enough that one carefully designed ship with a carefully selected crew can make it on a carefully selected route.

...I DO believe the system WILL "allow all ships run in a reasonable manner to be able to make it along all routes" provided such ships are properly designed and operated and the tailored to the route. I also DO NOT see any official designs that actually do this and can only blame laziness or creative whim in designing them. This is what causes all the problems with the whole stupid "the trade system can't work and must be wrong" discussions.
But half the point is that the "standard" hulls and "standard" designs don't work. Maybe this is just me, but should not "standard designs" be those that an inexperienced player who gets one in muster can make work as he or she learns the ropes?

As it is, you have to be both fairly experienced and fairly gearheaded to design a ship and a trade route that works by your criteria.
Originally posted by Plankowner:
On the Thread about Local Currency a table was reproduced from one of the JTAS about converting funds based on TL and Starport. All trade values given in LBB2 were supposed to be local funds.

When you do the conversion at each end of the trip into Imperial Credits, I think you can make the A2 work. The key is to pick between hi and lo TL worlds and buy the right stuff.

This "Official" tweek to the trade rules should allow you to use the Per Jump rule and still just about break even with a standard A2.
It just seems hypocritical to say, "Oh, you have to adjust for local exchange rates" (as though local currency exchange rate was part of the UWP), but then insist the trade model isn't broken.

PS: I can't help but notice that a couple dozen posts by thrash have been deleted from the thread. What gives?
 
Originally posted by Straybow:

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by far trader:
It IS enough that one carefully designed ship with a carefully selected crew can make it on a carefully selected route.

...I DO believe the system WILL "allow all ships run in a reasonable manner to be able to make it along all routes" provided such ships are properly designed and operated and the tailored to the route. I also DO NOT see any official designs that actually do this and can only blame laziness or creative whim in designing them. This is what causes all the problems with the whole stupid "the trade system can't work and must be wrong" discussions.
But half the point is that the "standard" hulls and "standard" designs don't work. Maybe this is just me, but should not "standard designs" be those that an inexperienced player who gets one in muster can make work as he or she learns the ropes?

As it is, you have to be both fairly experienced and fairly gearheaded to design a ship and a trade route that works by your criteria.
</font>[/QUOTE]Just to clairfy, when I said no official designs worked I meant those over J1 that weren't subsidized.

To address your point Straybow(*), and it's a fair one, the orginal rules (CT LBB1-3) do in fact make only one standard merchant design available in mustering out, and it does work under the trade rules as is.

* and I'm not so much addressing you specifically as speaking to the audience at large

In fact the type A Free-Trader can make a lot of money. Lots and lots of it if the referee is generous with the speculative cargo rules. That is probably the only way merchants should end up with anything like the type A2, by buying one outright with profits earned from a standard type A. In fact there is no provision in CT for gaining a type A2 in mustering out is there?

To quote from Supp 7 about the A2 "This type of merchant... even with a full load... would be unable to make its payments... Instead, the owner would be required to engage in... speculation in order to make up the difference... Charters might also seem an attractive alternative."

This strongly implies that loans are available but I wouldn't back one. It goes against the standard prinicipal of the criteria. But it does clearly state that you can't make money on standard trade (not even the B2 1st. ed. model with it's 61tons of cargo), reinforcing that standard trade is the way it is done. The one big problem I have with the presentation of the A2 is that charters are somehow an attractive alternative. It isn't, you lose more money on a charter than basic trade. Charter rules ARE broken.

I think it wasn't until Supp 4 - Citizens that the notion that players should have potentially money losing ships came about. The Safari ship, Lab ship, Corsair, Yacht, and Seeker can't make money under the standard trade rules. But then you'd hardly expect them too. And again there is no mention of gaining a type A2 in mustering out. As an aside I'm curious when this became an idea in CT?

The Safari ship should make money only in steady high paying charter work. And I have long argued that the charter rules as presented DON'T make any sense. Fix the charter rules and the Safari ship can work.

The Lab ship shouldn't have to make money in the normal merchant way either. I operated under the presumption that they worked much like the type S award to DD Scouts but as private sector or Imperial backed reserach.

The Corsair is not going to be used for basic trade either. No one expects it to do they? No one imagines Pirates are showing up at the port every month and going to the bank to make a payment based on transporting passengers and freight do they? Of course not. Pirates take what they need and don't pay nobody nothing arrrr. Or they're Privateers with backing similar to that of Subsidized Merchants.

The Yacht is another one that isn't supposed to be going around trading. It's either owned outright as a pleasure craft or part of an estate or the diplomatic service for the Noble to conduct official affairs with. Either way, again I employed it much like the type S awarded to DD Scouts.

The Seeker is also not engaged in simple merchant activity. Usually. I think it can actually operate as one and turn a moderate profit but typically it is supposed to be operating from strike to strike hoping for the big one that will allow retiring in luxury.


Originally posted by Straybow:

PS: I can't help but notice that a couple dozen posts by thrash have been deleted from the thread. What gives?
Yeah, I thought I'd noticed one or two were gone. Perhaps he has simply had enough of this particular issue and simply wanted to divorce himself from the whole mess.
 
Straybow: All post-CT editions (not conversions) used the Merchant Prince rules, not book 2.

One of the two conversions uses Bk 2 (T20), and the other is GT...

Merchant Prince is
1) less fun
2) less profitable (by restricting base values to KCr4-10, heavily centered around KCr6)
3) required skills not in CT basic CG.

general:
WITHOUT changing the rates, a type A can make a profit without spec... on a good route. 80 tons of cargo alone will allow her to make payments. It is hard to go bankrupt in a working Type A unless one is careless.

The Subby is not going to turn a profit on a mortgage. It will, however, do nicely on subsidy.

Taking these and doing HG versions instead massively ups the profitability by reducing the wasted space.

Subby:
400 TD hull (50Td Drive Bay, 350 general tons)
Drive Section:
20TdD JD-C (HG would be a mere 8Td)
05TdD MD-C (HG would be 8Td)
10TdD PP-C (TL9 would be 12Td!)
(35 TdD)(HG would be 28)
General Section
052Td 13 SR
050Td Fuel (HG would be 44)
020Td Bridge
020Td Launch (HG 26)
002Td Turrets
001Td Model 1
005Td Low Berths x9 plus 0.5Td cargo space for them.
200Td Cargo
(350 Td)

We actually have 15 wasted tons in the drive bay. We could also save another 10 Td in the drive section by using B drives, not C.

The HG version has a few extra tons available: it saves 7 tons on drives, gains six cargo tons for reduced fuel, and gets those wasted drive space tons, but loses 6 tons to increased size for small craft. At TL 13, it gains another 4 Td, and again at 15...

Now, following the subsidy rules, the 600Td Subby
600 TD hull (85TdD Drive Bay, 515 general tons)
Drive Section:
20TdD JD-C (HG 12)
05TdD MD-C (HG 12)
10TdD PP-C (HG 18)
(35 TdD)(HG 42)
072Td 18 SR
070Td Fuel (HG 66)
020Td Bridge
020Td Launch (HG 26)
002Td Turrets
001Td Model 1
005Td Low Berths x9 plus 0.5Td cargo space for them.
325Td Cargo
(415 Td)(HG 417)
We have 50 wasted tons...

Now, I like the 600 better, but under stricter interps of Bk2, it will NEVER fill; under the more liberal "one roll per steward" approach, it can easily fill with spec.

Also, under HG, it LOSES 9 tons to increases, but gains the 50 extra cargo for no drive section; 41 extra cargo tons! Add 6 more each at TL13 and TL15

For the really obnoxious, you use a mixed design.
Subby:
400 TD hull (50Td Drive Bay, 350 general tons)
Drive Section:
8TdD JD-HG1
05TdD MD-C
10TdD PP-C (TL13 would be 8Td HG1; TL15 would be 4Td HG1)
27TdD Fuel
(50TdD)
General Section
052Td 13 SR
017Td Fuel (44-27)
020Td Bridge
026Td Launch
002Td Turrets
001Td Model 1
005Td Low Berths x9 plus 0.5Td cargo space for them.
227Td Cargo
(350 Td)

Now, following the subsidy rules, the 600Td Subby
600 TD hull (85TdD Drive Bay, 515 general tons)
Drive Section:
12TdD JD-HG1x600
05TdD MD-C
10TdD PP-C
58TdD Fuel
(27TdD)
072Td 18 SR
008Td Fuel (66-58)
020Td Bridge
026Td Launch
002Td Turrets
001Td Model 1
005Td Low Berths x9 plus 0.5Td cargo space for them.
381Td Cargo
(415 Td)
 
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