I just realized that as usual this discussion has turned into the two sides talking about two different things and both sides being unable to understand how the other side can possibly be so obtuse.
I'm as much to blame as anyone. Looking back I note that I often use the phrase 'the trade system' when I actually want to say 'the freight and passenger rates'.
Essentially, Chris and I are saying: "The freight and passenger rates are broken because no jump-3+ ship can possibly make a living using those rates."
To which Aramis responds: "Yes they can, if they use speculative trade."
In other words, the freight and passenger rates are perfectly fine as long as you don't rely on freight and passengers. Is it any wonder that Chris and I are less than overwhelmed by that argument?
Confusing the issue is the fact that I do indeed think the trade system is broken, but not because a jump-3+ ship can't make a living doing speculative trade (a suitable jump-3+ ship, of course -- a Tukera freighter or an Al Morai ship might not do so well). On the contrary, giving the right conditions and an indulgent referee (or a By the Book referee), you can make billions of credits in an incredibly short while.
For now I'll try to stick to the freight and passenger rates and leave the deficiencies of the trade system for another time.
Originally posted by Aramis:
There will always be some people willing to go. If a ship happens to have space open when speculation based, they will, even at book rates, be able to fill out the space aboard with non-spec.
True, but it doesn't address my point. Of course you can get someone to pay less than the true costs for high-jump freight and passenger service. The choice between paying 8,000 credits for a jump-4 passage and getting there in 10 days or 32,000 for four jump-1 tickets and getting there in two months is pretty much a no-brainer, wouldn't you say? That's not my argument (I really do wish you'd get around to addressing my argument one of these days). The problem is, why should anyone bother to carry freight and passengers?
Well, for the freight you could argue that the cargo space is nicely calculated to fit the optimum amount of speculative trade that will be there when you arrive. since the amount varies, some days you'll wind up with less speculative cargo than space and then, of course, getting 1,000 credits per dT is better than getting nothing. It will be a problem for the shippers, because the shipowners will try to keep the amount of freight they're forced to carry to the absolute minimum, so one would think that the available freight would acumulate as time went by, but of course that can't be true, because the perfect, all-inclusive, totally realistic Book 2 trade system doesn't show any such build-up. Isn't that nice and plausible? Anyway, that's a problem for the shippers, not the shipowners.
But what about passengers? I don't have the patience to figure out the average amount of speculative trade available, but it seems to be around 40 dT. Let's say that the optimum cargo size is 100 dT. So you build yourself a 500 T jump-4 ship with a 100 T cargo hold (all these figures are approximate) and go wild with your speculative trading. You don't build a 1000 T ship with 30 passenger cabins and 100 dT of cargo space and burden yourself with a huge built-in deficit. It's simply not a rational thing to do. Especially since the average number of high and middle passengers that you can expect is below that (remember, you go where your speculative trade takes you, so you can't hope to go from high-population world to high-population world except by sheer chance).
Something else you don't do: You don't build a 3,000 T jump-4 ship with lots of staterooms and more than a thousand dT of cargo space and put it to work on regualrly scheduled routes, which is exactly what Al Morai did. I accept that a small jump-4 trader can make a mint. Now please do me the favor of explaining, in terms of the Book 2 trade system, why Al Morai has a ship jumping between Raweh and Wonstar.
Ah yes. Size. Size is another thing you conveniently ignore when you claim that the trade system is supposed to apply to all commercial ships in the Traveller Universe and works perfectly as is. Just how does Tukera make a profit with their Type AT freighters? (3,000 T, jump-4, 1329 DT of cargo space, 25 staterooms and five emergency low berths for a crew of 15, cost MCr809.1).
It does, however, mean that most merchants will not have fixed routes. Fixed routes are for subbies. "Real Merchants" will spend their approach evaluating whether to sell here or not (Trader Roll). ALso, whether or not to go elsewhere.
Ah, I see. So the huge losses incurred by Al Morai and Tukera are covered by subsidies? What a plausible notion.
The fixed price scheme imposed by the Imperium has an encouragement to both speculate, and to take the longest leg available. Since longer legs will not be constant, such travellers are likely to be far less savory...
It just occurred to me that there is no mention at all that the Imperium is imposing fixed prices. All the text says is that cargoes are carried at Cr1000 per dT and 8/10,000 per middle/high passenger. No mention that this only applies in the Imperium, no mention of any sanctions if a PC were to suggest that given the choice of paying, say, 3,000 per dT and getting the wares delivered in 10 days and paying someone with a Type A 4,000 per dT and getting it there in two months, the shipper may actually want to save a bit of money.
You've suggested Imperial law as an explanation why the prices are as they are, but do try to remember that it's just a theory, not established fact.
Let me propose my theory: The Book 2 trade system works for refereeing small PC-run tramp freighters having fun and interesting times. It does not apply to bigger ships, high-jump ship, and regularly sheduled freighters and liners.
I would say that my theory is
at least as plausible as yours.
Hans
