Book 2 economics, again! Beating the dead horse...

[robject]

Originally posted by daryen:

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />
His player-character bought a 600-ton liner and hired NPCs to run it between Rhylanor and Porozlo.

But buying a J3 ship that will exclusively run a J1 route is stu - err - inefficient. He would make much more money if he would buy custom J1 liners. They are far cheaper and will be able to hold way more passengers and cargo, to the tune of 140 dton. That would allow it to double the number of staterooms, and still add 20 dton more cargo.
</font>[/QUOTE]Well, duh! I was thinking the same thing as I posted.

We didn't think of that when we were playing.

Something else I haven't looked into is the time delay for custom construction. I mean, if the money can start rolling in next week, why wait a year?

EDIT
Ah, also, we used Book 2's passenger and cargo tables, which do project a theoretical maximum. When you're running three ships a week betweek two points, what that maximum means is anybody's guess, and those rules don't fit the paradigm anymore, but there you have it.

I can't recall if he had secured a mail contract as well...
END EDIT

 

[robject]

An anecdote from Marc.

Early on, when I made up rules at random, I was playing a merchant. I looked at the tables, and saw that the cargo from this world would sell at a good price on an Industrial world. So I bought it, figuring when I got to an Industrial world, I would sell it. After six jumps and no Industrial world yet, I looked at the tables and discovered how rare Industrial worlds were. That trained me to look up potential from the charts rather than gut feeling.

 

[daryen]

Originally posted by robject:
And Marc responds again.

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />So the real key is our term Free Trader. A ship/merchant who carries goods in "international" trade. Like the sutler's wagon following an army, or a merchant's wagon selling to the indians or the settlers.

That implies that the money to be made by a Free Trader is in speculation rather than freight hauling.

</font>[/QUOTE]Which would be all well and good, except it doesn't fit his own setting on two massive, major items.

1) If you can't make money without speculation, you can't get a loan from any rational, and most irrational, lending institution. They would be throwing their money away, and go out of business. And after 1000 years, the field should be pretty clear of stupid lenders.*

2) You can't make money speculating on the frontier. Crappy little frontier worlds (which I agree should be the focus of free traders) just can't produce or buy enough to support speculation.

Speculation requires at least one hi-pop (or pretty close) world. And if megacorps are as pervasive as Marc is saying, then every single hi-pop world should already be sew up tight.

[*] This brings up a whole second point that just dawned on me. It requires a very large lending institution in order to finance a friggin starship. It requires a very large interstellar lending institution to allow payments to be made at just about any starport. These very large interstellar institutions are commonly called "megacorporations".

So, why, if megacorps are so hostile to and threatened by free traders, do they lend them money to finance starships, then do everything possible to make the fail?

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by daryen:
BTW, I think it is interesting to note that when discussing the financial situation of the liner in Adv13, it explicitly states that it will, even under the best circumstances, lose money when doing J3 legs. It has to restrict itself to J2 or less to have a chance to make money.

How does doing two-parsec jumps help a jump-3 liner? The only cost that is lower is the fuel cost, and that is piddling compared to the bank payments. Nor will the cargo capacity be increased by the amount of unspent fuel (And the lower cargo capacity is the thing that really drives up the cost).


Hans

 

[daryen]

Originally posted by robject:
An anecdote from Marc.

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />
Early on, when I made up rules at random, I was playing a merchant. I looked at the tables, and saw that the cargo from this world would sell at a good price on an Industrial world. So I bought it, figuring when I got to an Industrial world, I would sell it. After six jumps and no Industrial world yet, I looked at the tables and discovered how rare Industrial worlds were. That trained me to look up potential from the charts rather than gut feeling.

</font>[/QUOTE]Just to reinforce a point in a previous message, industrial worlds are very important to successful speculation. However, every single industrial world is also a hi-pop world. The exact sort of world the megacorps should have already sewn up tight.

So, either the megacorps aren't all-encompassing (which doesn't fit the explanation), or they are stupid (which doesn't fit a successful 1000 year old corporation), or the explanation doesn't work.

 

[mike wightman]

Originally posted by robject:
An anecdote from Marc.

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />
Early on, when I made up rules at random, I was playing a merchant. I looked at the tables, and saw that the cargo from this world would sell at a good price on an Industrial world. So I bought it, figuring when I got to an Industrial world, I would sell it. After six jumps and no Industrial world yet, I looked at the tables and discovered how rare Industrial worlds were. That trained me to look up potential from the charts rather than gut feeling.

</font>[/QUOTE]This is where a jump 3 speculative trader can make you money.
Find a nice group of sytems that includes a couple of industrial worlds, rich worlds, agricultural (rich and agricultural is a good mix), and non-industrial and you should always have a good market nearby for whatever the trade table throws your way.

Hmm, this may call for a ship design.

LBB2 of course

 

[mike wightman]

There are lots of odd things about ship loans, speculative trade etc.

Who insures the shipping and the cargos? Where are the costs included?

How come I can ship 6 MCr10 computers to a population 1 non-industrial world and I can find a buyer?

Where is the second hand ship market?

 

[robject]

Originally posted by daryen:
Just to reinforce a point in a previous message, industrial worlds are very important to successful speculation. However, every single industrial world is also a hi-pop world. The exact sort of world the megacorps should have already sewn up tight.

So, either the megacorps aren't all-encompassing (which doesn't fit the explanation), or they are stupid (which doesn't fit a successful 1000 year old corporation), or the explanation doesn't work.

Well, the /In/ trade codes depends on a high pop.

Mike, you know about Merchant Prince. The megacorps don't deal with every trade route. There will be routes that fall beneath them: in fact, every world off their own trading routes is ignored by them.

This means that a good but not great world can border a great world, and provide a good source of income for a trader, but not enough to generate a contract for a megacorp.

Or, from the contract point of view, some worlds will be left out which can be rather lucrative from the local point of view.

 

[Pickles]

Originally posted by Sigg Oddra:
Where is the second hand ship market?

At the rate of repayment for ship loans, most second-hand starships should be in the scrapyard.

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by Sigg Oddra:
There are lots of odd things about ship loans, speculative trade etc.

Who insures the shipping and the cargos? Where are the costs included?

Far Trader answers that question, but the real answer is much simpler: "Not the shipper".

How come I can ship 6 MCr10 computers to a population 1 non-industrial world and I can find a buyer?

The real answer is that you can't and that the trade system ought not to let you.

Where is the second hand ship market?

It's there, and IMO it's a mistake that it isn't covered in the rules. for one thing, it gives a good answer to the question of how someone can survive as a free trader with a [insert name of problem ship here]: The bank payments are much lower because the loan covers a lower price for a old, banged-up ship. (What it doesn't explain is why the ship was built in the first place ).


Hans

 

[daryen]

Originally posted by Sigg Oddra:
There are lots of odd things about ship loans, speculative trade etc.

Who insures the shipping and the cargos? Where are the costs included?

How come I can ship 6 MCr10 computers to a population 1 non-industrial world and I can find a buyer?

The sad part is that I am ignoring all of the "missing" things, and just assume they are part of the present costs. (E.g. life support is amazingly high. Maybe that cost includes the relevant insurance premiums. Maybe the 1/240 payment includes any insurance premiums for the loan and ship itself.)

Even freight is a bit wonky. Why pay 1000Cr to ship something that isn't even worth that much?

But I ignore all that because those issues are completely insignificant compared to the "Why are megacorps lending money to people they are trying to drive out of business?" type issues.

Where is the second hand ship market?

This, on the other hand, is, in my mind, an absolutely huge issue. If players are supposed to be gritty characters operating in the margins of society, why are they expected to get a loan for a shiny new ship?

In my mind, PCs should be flying around in patchwork quilt ships lovingly held together while desperately trying to get money to keep enough repairs going so the ship can keep flying.

Struggling to make the mortgage payment is just so, ..., so, ... pedestrian. I struggle to make the mortgage payment; my PC shouldn't have to.

Irrespective of any resolution to the trade discussion, there *has* to be workable rules created for buying used starships.

 

[daryen]

Originally posted by Sigg Oddra:
There are lots of odd things about ship loans, speculative trade etc.

Who insures the shipping and the cargos? Where are the costs included?

How come I can ship 6 MCr10 computers to a population 1 non-industrial world and I can find a buyer?

The sad part is that I am ignoring all of the "missing" things, and just assume they are part of the present costs. (E.g. life support is amazingly high. Maybe that cost includes the relevant insurance premiums. Maybe the 1/240 payment includes any insurance premiums for the loan and ship itself.)

Even freight is a bit wonky. Why pay 1000Cr to ship something that isn't even worth that much?

But I ignore all that because those issues are completely insignificant compared to the "Why are megacorps lending money to people they are trying to drive out of business?" type issues.

Where is the second hand ship market?

This, on the other hand, is, in my mind, an absolutely huge issue. If players are supposed to be gritty characters operating in the margins of society, why are they expected to get a loan for a shiny new ship?

In my mind, PCs should be flying around in patchwork quilt ships lovingly held together while desperately trying to get money to keep enough repairs going so the ship can keep flying.

Struggling to make the mortgage payment is just so, ..., so, ... pedestrian. I struggle to make the mortgage payment; my PC shouldn't have to.

Irrespective of any resolution to the trade discussion, there *has* to be workable rules created for buying used starships.

 

[robject]

Originally posted by daryen:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by Sigg Oddra:
Where is the second hand ship market?

This, on the other hand, is, in my mind, an absolutely huge issue. If players are supposed to be gritty characters operating in the margins of society, why are they expected to get a loan for a shiny new ship?

</font>[/QUOTE]This is how I've always started Traveller campaigns. Half Price Rustbuckets.

Well, except for that guy who mustered out of the Merchants with a shiny trader.

 

[robject]

Well, once again, Marc responds from a view that I never considered. I get caught up in numbers and forget what the implications of the word Imperial and Frontier really means.

Most modern corporations (ie, small businesses) can't get loans without a personal co-signature. Banks (or more probably not impersonal banks, but personal patron lenders) lend to people based on their credibility and honor, which translates into credit rating.

Imagine late 17th century sailing, or 1820's frontier settlement in Indiana, or the lawless west. Insurance? Bank loans? Ordering things from New York (things came out to the frontier on speculation, rather than being ordered).

EDIT One more:

BTW, if the system was totally rational, then there are startegies and answeres that always work. That doeesn't happen in today's world either.

 

[mike wightman]

You know, if you edit all of Marc's comments together it makes for interesting reading...

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by robject:
Ouoted from Marc:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Most modern corporations (ie, small businesses) can't get loans without a personal co-signature. Banks (or more probably not impersonal banks, but personal patron lenders) lend to people based on their credibility and honor, which translates into credit rating.

Imagine late 17th century sailing, or 1820's frontier settlement in Indiana, or the lawless west. Insurance? Bank loans? Ordering things from New York (things came out to the frontier on speculation, rather than being ordered).

</font>[/QUOTE]The problem with that explanation is that this means that ship-owning PCs are required to be the kind of people that rich men will be willing to co-sign loans for. Something that is not as much as hinted at anywhere in the rules. I feel the breeze of hands waving here.


Hans

 

[robject]

Minimal lag times today with Marc.

And Marc says to Sigg's comment:

Its all a first draft of a first draft.

I agree it would mak some nice sidebars in the very long PDF version of T5.

 

[mike wightman]

Originally posted by rancke:
The problem with that explanation is that this means that ship-owning PCs are required to be the kind of people that rich men will be willing to co-sign loans for. Something that is not as much as hinted at anywhere in the rules. I feel the breeze of hands waving here.


Hans

It fits very well with the spirit of nobility that is meant to exist within the Imperium though.

Trustworthy folk being sponsored to go out and make good the Imperial ideal.
A gentleman's word is his bond and all that

 

[daryen]

Originally posted by Sigg Oddra:
It fits very well with the spirit of nobility that is meant to exist within the Imperium though.

Trustworthy folk being sponsored to go out and make good the Imperial ideal.
A gentleman's word is his bond and all that

At the risk of being continually contrarian, this whole noble sponsorship doesn't wash.

First, it is still a money-losing proposition. Whether it is a bank making the loan or a noble, they are going to want to see a return on investment. Depending on pure speculation and lawlessness (i.e. smuggling) isn't going to be a good sell.

Second, if a noble is going to, for all intents and purposes, give (or, more properly, lend) someone a starship, then we don't need an economic system at all. In for MCr50, in for MCr100. You are no longer a "free trader", but instead a lacky of the noble. (Which is a fine setting. I am playing in one now. You just aren't really a merchant.)

 

[robject]

Originally posted by daryen:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by Sigg Oddra:
It fits very well with the spirit of nobility that is meant to exist within the Imperium though.

Trustworthy folk being sponsored to go out and make good the Imperial ideal.
A gentleman's word is his bond and all that

At the risk of being continually contrarian, this whole noble sponsorship doesn't wash.
</font>[/QUOTE]Not at all. I think this issue is important, and I think your argument should be addressed.

I just don't have the brain to address it. I've forwarded these latest posts on to Marc, and he's been sitting on them, so that tells me either you're making him think it through, or else one of his other jobs has taken away his Traveller time.

Either way, hopefully it'll percolate through his subconscious.