Book 2 economics, again! Beating the dead horse...

[Ranger]

So, the image I am getting is one in which the Mega Corp lines are moving high tech good from high tech, high pop worlds to lower tech high pop distrobution hubs. From there, local lines and free traders move what isn't consumed locally to the rest of the systems. For that to work, you need the non-hub systems to have a way to make ImCrs to pay for the goods and fill the holds of ships heading back to the hub. If you have a consumer culture in the Imperium that values "exotic" (out of system) goods, the system would work perfectly. The system is pushing high tech goods out and pulling "exotic" goods back in.

So, you get speculative cargo lots when a deal falls through and the shipping agent gets stuck with a lot they thought they were going to ship as frieght or sell to a local distributor, but now have to unload to cover their cost.

 

[robject]

Originally posted by thrash:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by avery:
In a well developed economy, there would be shippers for each route operating efficiently.

If [600 years] isn't long enough to establish a "well developed economy," there never will be one.
</font>[/QUOTE]And yet, the Spinward Main is quite a backwater.

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />We're assuming an inefficient economy where customers need to take whatever is available. More like stage coaches in the old west or sailing ships on the Spanish Main.

This is not supported by the rules for trade in CT as written, nor by the presence in the OTU of 10,000-20,000 ton bulk freighters (Supp. 9, p. 25). In fact, the average amount of freight shipped may exceed that in GT.
</font>[/QUOTE]Few, if any, players are going to operate one of these. Those that do will go broke (maybe on the first jump) operating along the Spinward Main. In other words, they're red herrings for the sake of this discussion.

Megacorporations (and sector lines, and subsector lines) operate in a wholly different mode than tramp traders. I.E. they don't use Book 2 or Book 7's trade rules. I can see huge megacorporate freighters running the Xboat route.

I would definitely applaud a return to this kind of Traveller universe, but you must realize that this requires (1) orders of magnitude lower average population (primarily far fewer Hi pop worlds) and (2) an unstable, dynamic political and economic environment -- a true frontier, not a stagnant border.

We never left that kind of Traveller universe. The Spinward Main, for example, has always been too poor to get the attention of anyone except tramp merchants.

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />What are the standard operating expenses for a Marava and a Beowulf? Assuming one week in jump and one week in port.

These aren't really quite the right questions to ask. The problem from the shipowner's point of view should be phrased, "how much must I charge per dton per voyage to meet expenses?"
</font>[/QUOTE]Perhaps, but what are the numbers that Marc was asking for?

 

[Fritz_Brown]

Okay, Thrash, how about one of my custom designs (LBB2) - the 1000dT "Paper Airplane" cargo ship:
R = H + ((S - C) * 4) + (L * 0.5)
R = 689 + (0 * 4) + (6 * .5)
R = 692

Total cost is 354MCr, 16 crew, J1.

So, what is my cost per ton? And, will my 4+6 fingered, furry, singing friends be able to be profitable? Better with per jump or per parsec?

 

[Fritz_Brown]

And, the LBB5 version is J2, 499MCr, with R=555dTons.

 

[robject]

Originally posted by thrash:
The problem from the shipowner's point of view should be phrased, "how much must I charge per dton per voyage to meet expenses?" That is, what is the average income per revenue-producing dton required just to break even? Only then can we talk about profits.

And the answer, reaffirmed today by Marc, is that a trader makes money primarily via speculation.

 

[robject]

Hey Mike, Marc responded to your post.

Originally posted by daryen:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by Sigg Oddra:
It fits very well with the spirit of nobility that is meant to exist within the Imperium though.

Trustworthy folk being sponsored to go out and make good the Imperial ideal.
A gentleman's word is his bond and all that

At the risk of being continually contrarian, this whole noble sponsorship doesn't wash.

First, it is still a money-losing proposition. Whether it is a bank making the loan or a noble, they are going to want to see a return on investment. Depending on pure speculation and lawlessness (i.e. smuggling) isn't going to be a good sell.

Second, if a noble is going to, for all intents and purposes, give (or, more properly, lend) someone a starship, then we don't need an economic system at all. In for MCr50, in for MCr100. You are no longer a "free trader", but instead a lacky of the noble. (Which is a fine setting. I am playing in one now. You just aren't really a merchant.) </font>[/QUOTE]Marc respondez:

No No No. Prospectors (the old guys with the mules in the wild west) got a grubstake from someone who would trust them. Requires someone who needs money and someone with money to invest.

But it means that the wild-eyed crooks probably can't get loans. Wait, maybe they can, from other crooks with money they want to launder though someone who wants to go straight.

Look at the finances. my canon reference is LBB 2, page 7. "Bank" financing is availaable to qualified individuals.

Think of the possibilities. Ask the bank for a loan. Use our "Persuasion" action. Persuade-Logic. They say no. Look for another funding source. Role play out the financing part of the ship purchase. Find a broker. A patron? A friend? Smugglers laundering money?

 

[robject]

Originally posted by thrash:

[Making money via speculation] is not supported the trade rules in Book 2 as written. The average lot size and total value per lot for speculative cargo is far too small.

I think I need to try this out in the comfort of my own home. I seem to recall that, though it's not certain, it can be spectacularly profitable.

But then, we know that 9 out of 10 fledgling lines fail, and 99 out of 100 only break even.

Moreover, what kind of a business plan based on speculation can anyone offer a "bank" in order to obtain a very expensive loan on a very mobile piece of capital? The PC's may be in business to lose money, but the "bank" certainly isn't (and shady "businessmen" are likely to be worse than legit sources).

Refer to Marc's response to Daryen, above. All we need is a businessman who needs money, and a businessman who has money to risk on a long shot.

If, however, larger lines are able to operate bulk carriers on that scale at all, Mr. Miller's stated assumption about frontier-level economics is rendered false. The same could be said for the freighters in The Traveller Adventure.

Not at all. XBoat lines are like the old rail lines, perhaps, linking islands of civilization with an ocean of outback.

Plus, to a small degree, the opportunities available to larger lines are available to single traders -- namely, mail contracts and minor route subsidies.

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />The Spinward Main, for example, has always been too poor to get the attention of anyone except tramp merchants.

Patently false, as The Traveller Adventure demonstrates. (Besides which, "tramp" has a technical definition that doesn't depend on size.)
</font>[/QUOTE]Isn't Akerut considered a subsector + interface line? Additionally, Tukera operates on two or three worlds along their major trade artery. By LBB7, that leaves 75% of Aramis subsector behind.

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Instead of lower population, you simply need fewer resources traded between worlds, on the average.

Doesn't wash: if the goods traded from very low population worlds can find any kind of market at all, Hi population worlds will still produce enough "novelty" and luxury goods for each other to overwhelm a frontier-level economic model.
</font>[/QUOTE]That's very possible. However, owing to the limited exchanges going on on the Spinward Main and Book 2, it seems that there's not enough traffic there to overwhelm anyone.

How many worlds have permanently traded hands between the Imperium and its neighbors in the Spinward Marches, since the First Frontier War? How many parsecs has the border moved? What substative differences exist between the economics of Milieu 0 (T4), Milieu 980 (t20), Milieu 1120 (CT/T5), and Milieu 1248 (t20)?

Very few.

Your point is taken: the Imperium hasn't suffered. But have local worlds changed hands locally? Have their borders and governments shifted, or had serious enough problems to be labelled as amber or red zones, or are being harrassed by someone or other?

If I added those up in the Marches, I don't know what number I'd get.

EDIT I'd get somewhere around sixty worlds in Imperial Spinward Marches space with situations bad enough to warrant amber or red zones.
End Edit

 

[aramis]

Originally posted by rancke:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by robject:
Ouoted from Marc:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Most modern corporations (ie, small businesses) can't get loans without a personal co-signature. Banks (or more probably not impersonal banks, but personal patron lenders) lend to people based on their credibility and honor, which translates into credit rating.

Imagine late 17th century sailing, or 1820's frontier settlement in Indiana, or the lawless west. Insurance? Bank loans? Ordering things from New York (things came out to the frontier on speculation, rather than being ordered).

</font>[/QUOTE]The problem with that explanation is that this means that ship-owning PCs are required to be the kind of people that rich men will be willing to co-sign loans for. Something that is not as much as hinted at anywhere in the rules. I feel the breeze of hands waving here.


Hans </font>[/QUOTE]Funny Hans, but a lot of people have drawn that kind of detail from the CT materials. Why YOU are blind to it is beyond me; but you've consistently denied assertions in this line of thought as unsupported, despite their frequent recurrence in the CT fanbase. That's just a part of the whole implied "age of sail" and "Nobles in Space" feel.

No, it's not "explicit," but it is hinted at indirectly in CT. Repeatedly. In several adventures. Adventure 0 relies upon a sense of Nobless Oblige, even tho the intended PC may not even be noble by birth. Supp 6 has numerous patrons who rely upon relative strangers simply because they may be the right social class or prior service.

Supp 4 implies many odd things to various people, and that who you know is important is nigh-on explicit in there being a Noble Career with NO ENLISTMENT ROLL!

Proto-Traveller fans already know that CT doesn't inevitably lead to the Big-Ship, Big-Buisiness OTU of GT.

 

[robject]

Originally posted by thrash:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by robject:
Refer to Marc's response to Daryen, above. All we need is a businessman who needs money, and a businessman who has money to risk on a long shot.

Sadly, this is the same fallacy which plagues Mr. Miller's response on habitability and population: the problem is not explaining where one group of PC's got their ship, it is explaining where every other free trader crew got theirs.
</font>[/QUOTE]I don't understand. Looks like we are not communicating.

If there is enough trade anywhere to make 10-20,000 ton freighters profitable, we are no longer talking about the ad hoc shipping arrangements [...]

Right. We are not talking about a single A2 scraping by on speculative trade and freight costs. 10kt freighters, if they exist in the Marches at all, will be on the Xboat route, period.

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Plus, to a small degree, the opportunities available to larger lines are available to single traders -- namely, mail contracts and minor route subsidies.

Which, again, argues for more organized trade, not less.
</font>[/QUOTE]It's a sliding scale. Local worlds will subsidize some merchants, because otherwise the mail wouldn't get passed back and forth. So?

The parts of Aramis subsector that aren't covered, also aren't on the Spinward Main. The three merchant lines discussed in TTA -- Tukera/Akerut, Oberlindes, and Imperiallines -- by themselves possess far more than enough capacity to push trade from ad hoc to organized, and they aren't the only such lines operating in the Marches. (Viz.: Oberlindes can afford to buy and maintain Emissary, whether it makes a profit or not; no one pays particular attention to Imperiallines' 1000-dton ships as they come and go.)

Well, we don't know what their capacities are. We can assume that they each have at least 50 ships operating in the Marches.

We also know how they operate via LBB7. Their niche is not ad hoc.

But their capacity? It might be within an order of magnitude of the capacity of lone A's and A2's.

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />That's very possible. However, owing to the limited exchanges going on on the Spinward Main and Book 2, it seems that there's not enough traffic there to overwhelm anyone.

Citation, please? Book 2, as written, implies that there are on average 194 tons of freight on offer for each world within jump distance on every world in the Marches (and elsewhere). This is a huge amount.
</font>[/QUOTE]Depends on where most of it goes.

 

[daryen]

Well, a big part of the problem is that what Sigg and robject (and Marc) all want is a "western" or "age of sail" setting. Unfortunately, there are two problems with that.

1) Such periods are incredibly short. Sure you can handwave how somehow being in space makes things take longer. (Don't buy it, but don't need to argue it right now.) But no matter how long it takes, after 600 years things are pretty settled.

2) The OTU doesn't support it. The Spinward Marches is not a frontier. It is a relatively stagnate border province. And, considering the population bases given with Jewell, Rhylanor, Mora, Glisten, and Lanth (not to mention Gram, Narsil, Sacnoth, Darrian, Mire, Cronor, and Riverland), the Marches doesn't even really qualify for true "backwater" status, either.

Oh, and one more point. You can talk about Nobless Oblige all you want, but it did not exist in the OTU. Sure, there were vestiges of it laying around, and if someone (i.e. PCs) could be suckered into believing in it, great. But it didn't really exist.

How do I know that? Because MT teaches us that. Wait a minute! Don't nail me for referring to MT. Before you kill me, remember that the Rebellion (which in and of itself is proof that Nobless Oblige was long, long gone) was a long term intention of Marc's when he was developing the OTU. Whether he did much with MT or not, the Rebellion was his intention well before MT came out.

(Oh, and I could mention that the only reason GT is big-ship and big-business is because CT was that way, but I'll let that one pass for now.)

 

[daryen]

Originally posted by robject:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by thrash:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by robject:
Refer to Marc's response to Daryen, above. All we need is a businessman who needs money, and a businessman who has money to risk on a long shot.

Sadly, this is the same fallacy which plagues Mr. Miller's response on habitability and population: the problem is not explaining where one group of PC's got their ship, it is explaining where every other free trader crew got theirs.
</font>[/QUOTE]I don't understand. Looks like we are not communicating.</font>[/QUOTE]Not to speak for Hans, but his point is that having some nutcase with money who is willing to throw it away on the longest of all long shots can be made to work for PCs and their single ship.

However, it does nothing for the other free traders out there, since there just aren't that many nutcases with money who are willing to throw it away on the longest of all long shots.

 

[daryen]

Originally posted by Aramis:
Funny Hans, but a lot of people have drawn that kind of detail from the CT materials. Why YOU are blind to it is beyond me; but you've consistently denied assertions in this line of thought as unsupported, despite their frequent recurrence in the CT fanbase. That's just a part of the whole implied "age of sail" and "Nobles in Space" feel.

Not to keep speaking for Hans, but ...

The problem is that the OTU is massively inconsistent. It was made in a random, haphazard way, and many of the pieces continually war with themselves. Depending on which pieces of this struggle you like (or hate), different conclusions become "obvious".

In other words, you are being just as "blind" as Hans on this. He made indeed be ignoring oblique references in Adventure 0. But you are ignoring the massive population and 600 years of relative stability.

 

[mike wightman]

Now it's my turn to be contrary

1)Short? How many years of recorded human history are there? How many years have we had instant global communication?

The OTU doesn't have FTL communication systems - so the trade models that rely on rapid communication do not work.

The OTU is age of sail - it can't be anything else until instant FTL comms are invented.

2) The Spimward Marches is a frontier because it is so far from the core worlds. Are there even Free Traders in the core worlds I wonder? They are part of the Imperium only in name. Interplanetary wars break out and the Imperium doesn't intervene, trade wars cause death and destruction and the Imperium does nothing.

 

[robject]

We do know that the First Imperium took 4000 years to civilize the core. So I know of one data point.

But anyhow, Marc now has a suitable epitaph for the circles we're running in:

Sometimes it's best to move on. If we were in person, we could have a nice long argument about this, haul out books to support both sides, argue about how canon imperfectly reflcts the reality we want to achieve, and then argue about what that reality is as well.

But, let's move on.

I'm gladly moving on.

This is quite plainly a holy war. Or at least a holey wart.

 

[aramis]

Chris:

Whether you believe it or not, speculation ala strict Bk2 (which I used during the early part of the T20 playtest) can be, and is profitable. Most ships need only a mild nudge to go from failure to profit.

Given that 1 in 18 worlds is Hi, and Hi pop worlds often have good mods, at J3, I should have a 50% chance of a high pop world in those 6+12+18=36 hexes at an average density of 50%. At J2, It should be 25%. Just under half of Hi worlds will also be In.

If I get a good with a +3 on the AVT for a In world, and any base value of more than KCr10/Td, I do better than the canon KCr1/Td for cargo. With a base value of KCr5, a buy-sell difference of +3 is likely to be +1500 Cr, and could be as much as +7000/ton, assuming a median buy. Given a really good buy, one can go from KCr1.5 buy to KCr12 sale. 25 of 36 entries are worth KCr10+ per Td.

Chris, before you decree that it's not going to work, try it with a route-free mode of ops. buy a cargo, look where you can get the best sale, and go there. Even without trader and broker skills, it is profitable, if you bank your risks and have adequate ops capital. Use a crew of nought but PC merchants, and you usually can make the payments easy enough... by crew shares, everyoone gets rich based upon buy-in to the spec fund.

Not "break the bank", but enough to justify a modicum of speculators in an generally unprofitable work. The J1 can make even on only a little spec, and on a route at that. J2 and J3 really shine given the Bk2 economic "model", but only when not on a route.

Oh, by the way: I've done it with J1 through J3 HG designs under Bk2 and T20. I've made money enough to pay off starting with as little as KCr100 and 40 years owed. It really helps to have Trader and Broker skills

Some guidelines on "uber-strict" Bk2 T&C:
1: Since you get to know the final purchase price before committing, never buy if your final AVT purchase roll is greater than 6+resale DM's.
2: Bk2 doesn't say only one of bribery or admin; strictly speaking you can use both, provided they are on the same character
3: Brokers stack with Admin and Bribery; The DM+4 is the limit on broker's services ONLY.

 

[parmasson]

Hehehe…

Forget all the fancy theories and tables. Dice( scoff ) as if.
Kurega Gikur’s model for economics the Evil Referee™ way. Secretly calculate their total expenses and then add 1.5-2% to the buyer price. So they just get by.

For bad trips figure 5-10% below cost.
Bawhahahahahahahahahah (breath)hahahahahahahahahahah.

 

[aramis]

And Kureka would wind up with most of my player base figuring it out, and taking his Ref's Screen, books, and dice, and beating the * out of him for so doing.

My players don't mind changed rules, but arbitrarines by GM fiat is unnacceptable. Hence why we stick with Traveller... it is the LEAST arbitary of the trade systems from a player viewpoint. GT is a close second.

It's part of the reason the Chris & Hans versus WIl the Aramis Holy War of Trade has been going on for what, a decade now?

Yes, it's gamism. But it is also a clear part of the FUN of the game!

 

[daryen]

Originally posted by Sigg Oddra:
The Spimward Marches is a frontier because it is so far from the core worlds. Are there even Free Traders in the core worlds I wonder? They are part of the Imperium only in name. Interplanetary wars break out and the Imperium doesn't intervene, trade wars cause death and destruction and the Imperium does nothing.

Ah, but I disagree to an extent. Yes, it is true that the center of the Imperium, and its main seat of power, are very far from the Spinward Marches. However, that ignores two important items.

1) The Spinward Marches is a border area. That does not mean it is a frontier. Is Duluth Minnesota a "frontier" town just because it is on the border? No. But it is a border city. The Spinward Marches is a border area. It is not a frontier. Not during the CT, anyway.

2) The central Imperial worlds are irrelevant, anyway. The "Core Worlds", as far as the Spinward Marches is concerned, are Jewell, Mora, Rhylanor, Glisten, and Trin are the "core worlds". (You can add in Neumann, Tobia, Deneb, Vincennes, and several more in, too.) These worlds dominate the Spinward Marches just as Capital does Core. They are just as advanced, they are just as powerful, and their being on the border has no effect on the "core-ness".

Oh, and if the Imperium is powerless (or so disinterested) as to ignore the items you mention, how (or why) are they going to worry about something as trivial as enforcing an unsupportable shipping rate?

 

[robject]

Originally posted by Aramis:
And Kureka would wind up with most of my player base figuring it out, and taking his Ref's Screen, books, and dice, and beating the * out of him for so doing.

Kurega's games aren't economics driven, I'll wager. Most of them appear to revolve around rescuing slave girls in cryotubes.

 

[daryen]

Originally posted by robject:
But anyhow, Marc now has a suitable epitaph for the circles we're running in:

Again, the major problem is that the OTU is massively internally inconsistent. Unless much of that inconsistency is removed, then each side will argue from its "facts" and both sides will be "right".

Regardless, I do hope that Marc will at least add a "priority freight" category (based on distance) to the shipping rates.