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Book 2: Starships economics in CT

Hal

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Hello Folks,
It has often been said, that one can not or should not attempt to determine what the economics of a given region is, based solely upon the tables listed on page 11 of book 2: Starships.

None the less, I've a few questions to pose to people at large, and ask they they take on the mindset of being a starship captain who is present at world A as listed below:

World A: Pop 8 world, TL 10, Starport A
World B: Pop 2 world, TL 5, Starport C
World C: Pop 3 world, TL 7, Starport D
World D: Pop 8 world, TL 12, Starport B


Worlds A, B, C and D all occur along a jump-1 main. I left out world Z, which leads to A from the other direction simply because I'd like to concentrate on some issues involving the rules on page 11 as far as cargo generation and passenger generation per the rules.

Lets say for the sake of argument, that you're a ship's captain of a 200 dton type A trader. You have a crew of 4, which includes the standards for a pilot, engineer, medic, and steward. You've got 6 staterooms available for lease to any potential passengers, and you have 82 dtons of available cargo space in your hold.

Question: would you as the captain, short of chartering your ship to various people, and absent any speculative cargo you could potentially hope to sell at world D, consider choosing World D as your ultimate destination while at world A?

Using the rules as presented on page 11, going from world A to world B, results in rolling 3d6-1d6 for number of high passengers. Rolling a 10 on 3d6, and a 4 on 1d6, we start off with a potential for 6 High Passage customers. However, because the World B's Pop value is less than 5 (4 or less), a penalty of -3 is applied to the number of High Passengers. Now we're down to 3 potential passengers. However, all is not lost. World B's tech level is listed as being 5. The TL modifier would thus be 10-5, or 5. We've gone from our base 6 potential passengers to 3 back up to 8. So that's a good thing. Looking for cargo, we'd get 1d6+4 (base major cargos available) -4 (Low pop penalty) +5 (Tech level modifier) to 1d6+5 major cargos. At an average of 3.5 x 10 tons of cargo per major cargo roll, and having a total of on average, 9.5 rolls per - it is highly likely that the Type A trader can fill its cargo bay up to 80 dton's worth of cargo (ok, freight really, but that's CT, what can I say?).

However, once at world B. In order to turn a profit, and absent any speculative cargo being found, where do you as the captain choose to go?

If back to world A, you'd roll 1d6-1d6 for high passengers, 1d6-0d6 Middle passengers, and 2d6 Low passengers. However, because of the circumstances involved:

Destination world 8+, +3 to die rolls, Tech Level modifier = (TL 5-10) or -5, all the passenger rolls will be modified by -2. Chances are: zero High Passengers, plus perhaps 1 middle passenger (on average) plus 5 low berth passengers (On average). Cargo (Freight) availability will be:

1d6-2 Major
1d6-1 Minor

Modifiers will be:
Pop destination: +1
TL mod: -5

So Major cargoes will be 1d6-2+1-5 or 1d6-6 (automatically zero)
Minor Cargoes will be 1d6-1+1-5, which is only a 16% chance of having any cargoes at all!

The journey back from world B to world A is going to be in general, far worse than the outbound journy to World B.

Looking at the economics generated for going from World B to World C, we find that the economics will be such that things are even worse trying to go from B to C than from B to A.

So my question is - how does any kind of economy exist such that ships travel between worlds A and D with any kind of regularity based on the current rules of CT's Book 2: Starships?

The answer it seems, requires that the Type A trader owner, must engage in either specially chartered trips for anyone who wishes to journey between worlds A & D, or, the starship must engage in speculative trade such that the profits made from selling such cargoes between worlds A and D make up for the loss of income required by more mundane activities such as shipping freight or taking paying passengers.

Thoughts?
 
Yeah, pretty much. Speculative trade is where it is at for those trips.

A Free trader would be better off finding a better route.

A Freighter with a company behind it would have an office on the planet buying speculative cargo.
 
Freight is what the megacorps deal in - pc scale is speculative trade all the way.


Mike,

In a meta-game sense undoubtedly yes. Many of the canonical merchant ships are designed so that you have to speculate in order to pay the bills. It's a built in RPG hook in what is, after all, a RPG.

In an in-game sense however, the megacorps and other big boys carry speculative goods too. Among several other mentions in canon, the Old Timer in SSOM baldly states this a few times.

I think the main differences between the players and the megacorps are lot sizes and connections.


Regards,
Bill
 
You all have to remember that the rules are not written in stone. Book 2 (and Book 7) trade rules don't make a very good simulation of intersellar economics for sure. Besides, Book 0 says, "Much has been made of the rolling of dice in role-playing games, much more than is necessary...Feel free to modify the results if you do not like the way they turned out"(pg.18)

That being said, I guess I would drop of my cargo/passengers, fuel up, and jump to the next system and try make it up later in the month. The rules don't say you have to stay in-system for a week, followed by a week in jump space.

Also, banks generally don't give out loans for starships unless the owner can show them a sound business plan. This route doesn't quite cut it.
 
I suspect the biggest difference between PC's and MegaCorps is the lack of MegaCorps taking out mortgages.

When one has paid off a ship, the ability to pay back the principal is an important consideration. Prior to that point, all that matters is making the payments.

In my games, spec trade averages about KCr2 per ton without PC brokers; closer to KCr10 per ton with.

So, it's reasonable to expect megacorps to have a held stock of cargoes, and ship it along their routes as makes the best projected profit (using Trader skill). buy low using broker and trader.

It's also reasonable to expect that MegaCorps will have warehouses on their routes, and thus be able to reduce trip time from 12-14 days (since finding takes 5 days) down to 9-10 days (to allow for load/unload and travel.
 
This is where having a good steward comes in handy. All of these mods are *per die* rather than to the overall roll, and hold true for the following...

Using Merchant Prince LBB7,
Steward DM H Psgr (High passenger, etc)
Admin DM M Psgr
Street DM L psgr
Liason DM m cargo (minor cargo)

A high enough skill set in any/all of the above and you'd have a full hold essentially guaranteed. Question to me would be does the minor cargo DM apply to the rolls for the cargo size as well???

Liason-3 = Admin-2, Street-2, Legal-1. Liason rocks!!!

Then again this is what LBB7 not LBB2. And of course the free trader isn't so viable a ship economically (did work one up though, so standard trade LBB2 freighter is doable [barely!], even with jump tapes in 'the fleet' somewhere)

To even get a shot at a trader in LBB2 you're minumim 4 terms in merchants, you'll have *some* skill somewhere in there i'd say odds on.

Again already mentioned, any ship without a payment requirement the situation varies markedly. It's a big jump from barely (or not) making the monthly payment requirement ('standard' free trader), to meeting operational, salary, maintenance, fuel (and jump tape!) requirements for a subsidized merchant, to owning free and clear a ship. personally it's always been fun for me to do a "roll 2d for number of worlds, roll them up, design subd merchant for that" approach. The route you list would fall under that, where the strict economics don't favor trade.

(So the General Products Sector Liason reaches agreement with Imperial Baron X for contract allotment at 20% of value for all exports from world C in return for a GP subsidized financing for a subsidized merchant, including a Scout grant and contract supply of grain while we're at it lol oh and 10% to Imperial navy support for 'protection of trade routes') Then the Imperium (or at least it's noble!) is happy, the GP MegaCorp is happy, the scouts/navy are as well, trade ensues, and the poor guy working the mines in the company town who doesn't get commercial rates for his work or goods, well... there's your exchange rate conversions by port and TL sadly. Then again maybe the scouts seeded the world 50 years ago with horses/cattle and all ya gotta do is herd 'em into the low berths, so whatcha want for that there cow mister? Rawhide!
 
I suspect the biggest difference between PC's and MegaCorps is the lack of MegaCorps taking out mortgages.

When one has paid off a ship, the ability to pay back the principal is an important consideration. Prior to that point, all that matters is making the payments.

In my games, spec trade averages about KCr2 per ton without PC brokers; closer to KCr10 per ton with.

So, it's reasonable to expect megacorps to have a held stock of cargoes, and ship it along their routes as makes the best projected profit (using Trader skill). buy low using broker and trader.

It's also reasonable to expect that MegaCorps will have warehouses on their routes, and thus be able to reduce trip time from 12-14 days (since finding takes 5 days) down to 9-10 days (to allow for load/unload and travel.


That reminds me...

Part and parcel of the problem with whether or not a ship is profitable is whether or not the ship's owners have to pay a mortgage on their ships or not.

Has anyone ever done an analysis of what levels of mortgages would be required in order to finance higher jump level ships?

For example, instead of financing 20% of a ship and making mortgage payments on the remaining 80% - what if the down payment were to be 50% and mortgage the remaining 50%, or what would the Traveller Universe look like if the Larger megacorps were purchasing ships outright?

Or, conversely, what if a megacorporation had its own division of starship construction such that it got its ships at cost?

How might that affect the overall economics equation where ships from megacorps can venture to those locations that tramp freighters can't?
 
Yes, Hal, I have, but for MGT, I did it before they changed the rates on travel.

It's also dependent upon the ship design system in use, and the minimum crewing (which is loosely defined in MGT).

Note that the standard terms in other editions are 20% down, and 1/240th total price per payment. If we instead use 1/192th of financed price for 40 years, we get the same approximation.

At standard rate, a 200Td minimal all cargo ship built under CT bk2:
MCr Td System
08 200 hull
01 020 Bridge
10 010 JDA
04 001 MDA
08 004 PPA
00 010 Fuel PP
00 020 Fuel JD
02 016 Crew SR (PNEM)
00 119 cargo
== === ====================
33 200 M1 J1 P1 119Td Cargo HP=0 MP=0 LP=0

Op Costs:
17,000 crew/mo
16,000 LS/mo
00,200 Berthing twice/mo
06,000 Fuel Twice
02,750 Maint set-aside (33,000/12)
======= ====================
41,950
Op Inc, max
238,000 max cargo
Max Payment = 196,050
Max Financed = 37,641,600
 
And now for a more reasonable configuration, with mail and 8 HP
MCr Td System
08.0 200 hull
01.0 020 Bridge
10.0 010 JDA
04.0 001 MDA
08.0 004 PPA
00.0 010 Fuel PP
00.0 020 Fuel JD
03.0 024 Crew SR (PNEMSG)
04.0 032 Pass SR x8
00.8 001 HP + S.Tur PLas
00.0 078 cargo
==== === ====================
38.8 200 M1 J1 P1 78T Cargo HP=8 MP=0 LP=0

Op Costs:
21,000 crew/mo
48,000 LS/mo
00,200 Berthing twice/mo
06,000 Fuel Twice
03,234 Maint set-aside (33,000/12)
====== ====================
78,434 Tot Op Cost

Op Inc, max
050,000 5T mail allotment
000,000 10T HP Baggage
126,000 max cargo
160,000 Max HP
======= ====================
256,000 max op inc.
Max Payment = 257,566
Max Financed = 49,452,672
 
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I thought I'd try a different approach to the problem of trying to determine how ships might make a profit one way or another...

Suppose you have a megacorporation, whose concerns spread over subsectors or even over entire sectors. What might some of its operational strategies be?

First? Do not resort to mortgaging when it comes to purchasing ships. Buying one ship on the mortgage plan costs about the same as buying 2 ships outright over the course of the 40 years spent paying off the mortgage.

Second? Why purchase ships at market price, when you can start up a shipyard and build ships at cost? If you built a shipyard, and built only a few ships per year at cost, and then used the shipyard to service maintenance requirements of the general market - it should support itself as a separate division of the Megacorporation, thus insuring a sort of logical self-sufficiency.

Now, lets look at this from another angle.

Using the worlds described in my earlier post - what if we went SMALLER rather than larger as far as cargo carrying capacity goes? For instance, suppose a connected individual approached the Imperial Scoutship liason office, and offered to purchase a used scoutship for 1/2 its brand new cost (its estimated worth at present) - allowing the scout ship to put an order in for a new ship, and releasing the used scoutship into private hands. Since this guy is "connected" (at least social Status 8 or 9), his business plan would be known to the scouts at the time he approaches them. His plan? Gut the older scout ship of two of its 4 staterooms plus the air raft bay. Enlarge the cargo bay from its paltry 3dtons to 15, and install a weapons bay fitted with dual turret containing a sandcaster and a laser (or perhaps missile?).

At this point in time, he too realizes that getting a bank mortgage for his ship is going to be too costly in the long run to justify his business plan. Normally, if he purchased a ship worth 29.43 MCr, he'd have to cough up 5.866 MCr and pay a monthly mortgage of 122,625 Cr. Carrying 5 dtons of mail plus 10 dtons of freight, at best, would net the ship a total of 70,000 cr per two jumps - clearly not enough to service the mortgage debt even under the best ideal circumstances. Under the expected circumstances, he can expect about $35,000 credits of income when jumping from a Pop 8 world to any other destination, but from a Pop 3 world, he can expect about $25,833. I calculated the odds of rolling up a cargo destined for a pop 8 world with a TL 5 higher than the Pop 3 world. This averaged out to be about 833 credits per trip over the long run as far as cargo capacity worth $1,000 credits per dton carried.

So what is the guy to do? He could for example, approach the stock markets of both World A and World B, and make an initial stock offering to the investors. At 30 credits each for 800,000 shares of stock, he could purchase outright, a ship worth up to 32 MCr. A used Scoutship at 50% of its brand new purchase price, would only require about 15 MCr to be raised via the Initial Stock Offering. In addition, the stocks would be sold at 18.75 Cr per share, and if I did my math correctly, the corporation could pay out dividends at a rate of 4.5% return on the initial investment per year. The Dividend of course, being 100% of the profit being paid back to the initial investors.

Now, here is the fun part if you will. This "freight line" has a scheduled flight plan such that it goes from world A to World C to World D. Then, it travels from World D to World C, and from World C to world A. It will almost always have freight to carry to World C from either of Worlds A or D, and will always generate income from mail on each of its trips. That is, until someone else tries to muscle in on his mail contract. Thing is, no individual running off of a standard bank mortgage can compete with this guy, and if a subsidized ship ever is raised to fill in the same function, the governments end up having to pay for the subsidy AND still have to pay the cost to ship mail and incidentals in the first place. So only another stock based competitor can hope to compete with this individual who has purchased a used scoutship for his business.

Now, why a used scoutship? Why not buy a purpose built craft instead of a used scoutship? If you note on page 11 of Book 2: Starships under the heading of "Malfunctions", a scoutship has a -2 modifier for malfunctions. Couple this with the use of unrefined fuel, the final modifier for a misjump of a scoutship (assuming it always jumps at least 100 diameters away from a large body), is -1. Rolling a 12, and having it modified to an 11 means that this ship will never roll the 13+ for a misjump while using unrefined fuel.

Now, we have a regularly scheduled crossing between Worlds A, C and D.

The problem here of course, is that the ship can't carry passengers. That is, until a curious thing occurs...

Train the passengers to where they have Gunner-0, and then list them on the ship's crew manifest as being "working passage" gunners, and the ship retains its ability to carry mail AND carry one passenger.

Thoughts? Comments?
 
And a "Near pure" liner 200Td design:
MCr Td System
08.0 200 hull
01.0 020 Bridge
10.0 010 JDA
04.0 001 MDA
08.0 004 PPA
00.0 010 Fuel PP
00.0 020 Fuel JD
03.5 028 Crew SR x7 (PNEMSSG)
11.0 088 Pass SR x22
00.8 001 HP + S.Tur PLas
00.0 018 cargo
==== === ====================
46.3 200 M1 J1 P1 78T Cargo HP=13 MP=9 LP=0

Op Costs:
024,000 crew/mo
116,000 LS/mo, SR
002,000 LS/Mo, LB
000,200 Berthing twice/mo
006,000 Fuel Twice
003,859 Maint set-aside
======= ====================
152,059 Tot Op Cost

Op Inc, max
050,000 5T mail allotment
000,000 13T HP Baggage
260,000 Max HP
144,000 Max MP
======= ====================
454,000 max op inc.
Max Payment = 301,941
Max Financed = 57,972,672
 
I thought I'd try a different approach to the problem of trying to determine how ships might make a profit one way or another...


Thoughts? Comments?

(1) You can't count on scoutships being available used
(2) The real megacorps would just shoot your scoutships claiming you fired first, and the Admiralty would conveniently ignore the data tapes showing differently; disrupting the status quo gets you dead.
(3) Training to level 0 takes several weeks.
(4) the ships are not rated for commercial service
(5) you're well beyond the realm of Bk2...
 
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...
Thoughts? Comments?

A couple quick ones...

Gunner-0 isn't enough to rate as a qualified gunner. So you'd need Gunner-1 minimum.

Depending how one parses the table (the way I would) the DMs for Scout and Navy ships may only apply to Misjumps and not Drive Failure in which case running unrefined fuel can still be a problem for your Scout ship. You may not misjump but you may still be out of action.

Some have pondered that it's not the ship (Scout or Navy) that allows the DMs vs Misjump, but the crew and/or special knowledge. So you may not even be avoiding the misjump chance.
 
Do not resort to mortgaging when it comes to purchasing ships. Buying one ship on the mortgage plan costs about the same as buying 2 ships outright over the course of the 40 years spent paying off the mortgage.

There are certain things implicit but not explicit in Trav -- insurance, for example (which of course has its historical origins in the shipping business) -- and alternatives to mortgage-based financing is one of the more neglected of them.

"Subsidized" has always struck me as a potentially-enormous loophole.

IMTU, outside the megacorporate-controlled primary markets, various forms of Merchant Guilds exist to provide training and financial backing for independent merchants and traders. The Guilds have enough resources to pay cash outright for the purchase of Trader class vessels, and then turn around and lease-to-own them to qualified (typically in-house trained) Merchant Captains (and/or the Limited Liability Corporations such Captains form to Do Business As) in a profit-sharing arrangement. This creates an ersatz Trav-standard Subsidy mechanism that is not tied down to a particular planetary government, and as a consequence, MTU is populated with a fair number of "Subsidized Traders" that are not required to ply fixed routes, so long as they generate enough profit to send a healthy cut back to the sponsoring Guild on a reasonably-regular basis.

As background, some of the organizations from CT A4:Leviathan can fill this Guild role nicely; I am especially fond of Arkesh Spacers, but that is just me...

The upshot is that MTU is populated with lots of struggling Traders who are trying to keep their Guild status and reputation intact, rather than worrying about bank-dispatched repo teams. This can generate a different series of economic pressures on small ship operators, as it eases the threat of ship loss in the face of a rough couple of months only to replace it with a complex web of Guild politics and reputation concerns, which I find to be more-useful adventure hooks.

Also, looking at your scenario with a Trader's mindset, I would be interested to know -- in addition to Starport, TL, & Pop -- what the specific Trade Classifications are for each world, since I often use those as additional modifiers to the basic cargo & passenger rolls (with an eye towards slipping significant NPCs in there -- but that is a consideration beyond just crunching revenue projections). And of course, there is always the lure of speculative cargo, which one would petty much need to rely upon to fill otherwise-empty freight capacity to the inevitable podunk worlds on Mains.
 
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