Yes, the CST-100 is a very conservative design from a company with a lot of pull and a long history of lowballing contracts. Without wandering into politics, I think this is what some think they'll get if there's a downselect to one crew vehicle right now.
Dragon is a more flexible design, and will likely be the first proven cargo vehicle in a number of hours, so its production is assured, making a man-rated version likely cheaper for real than CST-100's remaining work.
Dream Chaser is the continuation of lifting body work, and is likely the best path long-term for an orbital crew vehicle that confines costs, has a high potential flight rate, and gives a great basis for fully-reusable low cost flyback stack development (though that case could also be made for the Blue Origin biconic vehicle, if it ends up operating as anticipated.)
And Dream Chaser is
advancing apace, hopefully its exposure will make it harder to kill.
Liberty has a team with lots of pull and the capsule gives the Orion team a lot of possible upgrades "for free" (so far as the Orion program is concerned.)
Basically, it's still too early to start cutting IMO, though the pressure is on to do so. Personally, I'd like to see all of them go forward for at least another year.
I think Dragon is pretty close to an inevitability right now for crew, even if it means being the "follower" in a two-vehicle "leader-follower" crew development program (leader gets the big bucks, follower gets life support funding in case the leader botches something big time.)
I'd pick either Liberty or CST-100 as the other survivor in a two vehicle program. Which will depend on the backers' ability to maneuver in D.C. Liberty has been outside CCDev so far, getting funding through a door Congress wants to close. CST-100 has been treated as a CCDev-2 front runner because of recent emphasis on "total package" integration of the crew vehicle with a launch platform, which makes Boeing's connection to ULA and the Atlas V more significant than might otherwise be the case if the case were based mainly on the crew vehicle.
This lack of a "package" was given as the reason for dropping Orbital Sciences from commercial crew at the last round, though they're looking at being the #2 COTS supplier (commercial cargo) later this year if everything shakes out well with Antares and the new launch facility.
Still, I'm hoping they keep them all going for a while. Dream Chaser and Blue Origin are getting us lots of basic research on the cheap through their development, at the very least. Liberty gets us some alternatives for Orion when (not if) a vehicle mass crunch hits that program. Dragon gets us cargo, crew, and potentially a deep space alternative to Orion in case Orion hits a wall or gets cut. CST-100 gets us a pretty much sure thing orbital crew vehicle if everything else falls flat.
In another year, IMO, it'll be more clear which show promise and which are going to soak up funds building hangar queens. Right now all the vehicles have promise from what I can see.
And we're getting all this for significantly less than the cost of the Orion alone (though it's a bit of an unfair comparison, as Orion is being developed for long term deep space missions while the others are limited to LEO or MEO for now.)