mbrinkhues
SOC-14 1K
China lacks the capability to successfully take an island off their coast
I don't think you understand how difficult it is to move large numbers of troops great distances. Only a handful of countries even have a deep blue navy
In T2K, China is knocked out by the USSR, Japan has no long range transport nor military will. South Africa can flex massive muscles in Africa but any type of logistical operation involving deep water would result in the loss of massive numbers of soldiers
The only threats facing the US (non-strat nuke anyway) are Mexico (realistically, slight beyond about 100 km of their border) and fellow Americans
The question I always had for T2K post 1990 is 'why did their USSR survive?'
I looked back for a 'moment in time' that would change the history. And I found it.
In 1993, during a visit to South Korea, North Korea actually had plans to assassinate Reagan. It was largely Reagan's plan to bankrupt the USSR with an arms race they could not win that hastened the end of the Evil Empire. Bush Sr, away from Reagan's influence and facing domestic pressure, may well have gone back to Nixon's brand of anti-Communism: talk a good story but live in detente
No Reagan massive build up = no pressure on the USSR
No Reagan funding of the Mujahadeen, including the supply of Stingers = Russian grind but eventual victory in Afghanistan
No Reagan support for Solidarity in Poland = eventually the lights go out
Actually Poland is not that critical in the equation, the Solidarnosc movement did only come into anything resembling power (a rigged election that gave the opposition 35 percent of the seats and the rest to the commies) in June 1989. The major problem was Hungaria opening it's borders and therefor East Germany collapsing.
If you want a turning point, have the East German Army and/or the Sowjet army answer the "We are the people" protests with a "No, you are enemies of the people" and ample amounts of maschine gun ammo. Maybe including a little "visit" to Hungaria in the Summer.
As an alternate have the "August Uprising" of 1991 take place in 1988 and be a bit more successful. No Gorbashev, no Wodka-Boris and the whole Eastern Block gets another decade