Kill Lucan!

[Uxi]

Nation-state or semi-feudal, it still boils down to logistics and power. For that very reason, MegaTrav went to some lengths to try to deny Lucan his full strength and to give him alternate targets to waste resources on.

Yup and they did with the very thing that made him a candidate is premised to weaken his strength from the very beginning of the MT source material: suspect to the murder of his brother which led to rumblings in the Moot which made him prematurely dissolve it and begin arresting leading members. That by itself would go a long ways in alienating what should have been his strength. Many are going to choose to either hedge their bets (as much as possible) or choose a different faction that's available to them.

Dulinor simply did not have the strength to stand up to what could be mustered from the neighboring sectors unless some of those sectors were neutralized in some way.

Sounds like you're really chewing on the suspension of disbelief over the writing of MT in 1988...

I don't find it implausible that Dulinor has one major advantage of having set the initiative and ensuring his sector fleet (led by his brother) was behind him first. The entire Imperium is a mixture of nepotism and feudal trappings.

My thought is it's just another Trav science gaff - either the writers didn't realize clones aren't perfect duplicates or they needed that second front too badly and decided the average player wouldn't question the story.

Or the preconceptions of TL15 cloning based on Dolly the sheep isn't quite right and clone is just the closest word we have for it.

Strephon was at a Depot with loyal officers around him when he received the announcement. The idea that the fleet at that Depot is going to do anything but obey and protect him is absurd: they've just received word of the incident, the Emperor is among them and able to prove who he is.

Eh, even within the storyline, it's a secret mission so most of Depot (perhaps even the commander!) might not even know he's there at all. Possible it's the etiquette fiction and everyone knows the Emperor can't be everywhere at once, but I don't think that fits in with the whole IRIS storyline later on either.

Depending how much everyone is spying on everyone else, there could be many reasons to keep it pretty discrete. The Aslan ambassador and Dulinor himself should be quite offended if they hear they were treading water with a duplicate later on, after all. This might get into areas where what the Emperor's travel entourage for such a secret mission might be. On a big capital ship with a BatRon as escort? Or just an Imperiallines TJ?

At that point, there is no reason to question the loyalty of anyone but Dulinor - this was two months before Dulinor even made it back to Dlan, long before the fleets started mobilizing.

Which? Dulinor's fleets would have been timed to mobilize with the assassination along with the faked news broadcasts that beat "real" news traffic to galvanize his public opinion. Even if he didn't plan for worst-case contingencies, it would be reasonable to conclude that some minor rebellions might rise against him.

First time I heard about the Strephon faction, I figured it had to be a fraud. A year after Strephon's death, one faction in the hinterlands is not happy with Lucan OR Dulinor and decides to create their own Strephon - a doctored fake to rally the people around, surrounded by loyalists who could keep him from being examined too closely. If they could bring down Lucan by force of arms, they could present the nobility with a fait accompli and rally the Imperium around their Strephon to turn and defeat Dulinor. Fighting in that scenario is a must - the fake Strephon won't pass close examination, so the only route to success is by force.

Then I recently got my hands on Survival Margin and realized they were playing him as the real Strephon. Worse, they're playing him as the real Strephon who sat back and let things go to hell before revealing himself - in a universe where the science to prove his identity is as easy as asking for fingerprints. And yet, the Imperial administration that was once loyal to him would rather go to war with him than ask for this little bit of TL5 science? Not likely.

Original intent is interesting to speculate on. I think they left it vague enough to be interpreted any way an individual GM wanted. To my reading it all after the fact after TNE, it appeared to be me that all of the factions were designed to be too equivalent to have an outright winner and that the Imperium was never intended to be reunified. I've never seen anything to indicate GDW actually had a plan (or even cared) nor that DGP had a plan for a winning faction in the Imperium, either.

By Arrival Vengeance, it was most decidedly decided he was real.

 

[Carlobrand]

As there doesn't presently seem to be much interest in killing Lucan, I'm going to digress a bit.

Yup and they did with the very thing that made him a candidate is premised to weaken his strength from the very beginning of the MT source material: suspect to the murder of his brother which led to rumblings in the Moot which made him prematurely dissolve it and begin arresting leading members. ...

MT Rebellion Sourcebook, "Windhook’s story was transcribed privately by a computer information agency at lnarli in Corridor Sector." Windhook fled Capital in an "...Imperiallines-type TJ cruiser bound for the Imperial border ... Within a few weeks, he had switched ships four times and used every trick that Naval Intelligence had ever taught him, hoping against hope that a young naval lieutenant could hold out against what must be the whole Imperium chasing him."

Inarli's 64 parsecs off - minimum 7 weeks, likely longer depending on what other ships he took and what routes they followed. Return communication's at least 7 weeks at J6 if the Admiralty's using fleet couriers to distribute such allegations, more like 16+ if the X-boat network's carrying the story. We're looking at around 6 months before the allegation gets to Capital. At that point it's an allegation from a distant border world made by a man suspected of being an agent of Dulinor.

I do not like Lucan - no surprise, he's not written to be likable. I do consider him to be capable of murdering his brother. However, I do not think the word of a fugitive implicated in the murder, six months after the deed, is going to carry much weight outside of the Imperial equivalent of the National Enquirer and perhaps the far future equivalent of Oliver Stone. The crazier Lucan got, the more weight the allegation would carry, but early on in the business it would have essentially no impact.

Now, let's look at the idea of the Imperium as some sort of feudal equivalent of the U.S. under the Articles of Confederation. (Okay, that overstates it - a bit - but you get my point.)

The Third Imperium is, as of the assassination 1116 years old. Over that period, it has expanded from its Sylean Federation roots to a polity encompassing almost 9000 worlds in 28 sectors with a population in the vicinity of 15 trillion souls. It is famously conservative.

It is also famously resistant to challenges to its authority.

Martin III crushed the Ilelish Revolt, a revolt that at its height covered six sectors, in a 17 year campaign that ended with the equatorial regions of Ilelish being reduced to desert as an abject example of the price of rebellion. The Imperium did not fragment then. Odd quarters of it did not decide they would put their own candidates forward as claimants to the Imperial throne while the Imperial administration was actively engaged in war. It endured - and Ilelish and her allies lost.

Cleon IV rose to power by assassinating Nicholle, endured 80 years as emperor before being assassinated himself and triggering another 67 years of accession by murder - including a delightful 16 year period in which the fleet admirals one after another used the forces at their disposal to elevate themselves and overthrow their opponents at meson-point, so to speak. The Imperium did not fragment then. Odd quarters of it did not decide they would put their own candidates forward as claimants to the Imperial throne while the Imperial administration was actively engaged in war - well, the fleet admirals did, but by all accounts the Imperium as a whole went on about its business while the admirals happily shot at each other. The Imperium endured - and the admirals killed each other until one had the good sense to try another way.

And on that subject, there is the Spinward Marches, home to the infamous Olav who rode into Core at the head of a fleet to start the cycle of emperors-at-mesonpoint. Dissatisfaction with the Emperor did not prompt them to leave the Imperium and go do their own thing at the end of the First Frontier War, though the tactical situation in Corridor and the strength of a fleet able to march on Core suggested they could have done just that. They remained with the Imperium, and Olav took his fleet to Core to go "fix" things. Nor did they decide to do their own thing when the Third Frontier War gave them cause to do just that. No, that war instead brought the abdication of an emperor. Which brought us -

- Gavin, who mounted war against the former Solomani Autonomous Region when it sought independence in the aftermath of the abdication of Styryx. It was by all accounts a bloody and expensive war: the Solomani Sphere encompassed most of 9 sectors, the effort ran 12 years with conquest of about a quarter of that territory, ending in the conquest of the Solomani homeworld and an exhausted Imperium and Solomani calling an armistice that lasted over a century. The Imperium did not fragment then. Odd quarters of it did not decide they would put their own candidates forward as claimants to the Imperial throne while the Imperial administration was actively engaged in war. It endured - and the Solomani spent the next century looking at their occupied homeworld from across a hostile border.

This is a conservative Imperium which has hung together for over a thousand years, despite incidents that could have torn it apart - incidents little different from the assassination of Strephon and the rebellion of Ilelish, when it comes down to it. Strephon was, by most accounts, not a bad emperor. Dulinor is the first hint we have that there's a serious grievance to be had. Tell me that he had been lousy, controversial, that his nobles were dissatisfied and sick of him and his line, and maybe the MegaTrav scenario makes sense. Give me an Imperium of a thousand years and more with a fairly well-liked Emperor suddenly slain in his throne room and one clearly eligible successor taking the throne, and I say it is absurd for the Imperium to fracture as it did within no more than a year of his death.

... Or the preconceptions of TL15 cloning based on Dolly the sheep isn't quite right and clone is just the closest word we have for it. ...

Or you should do some research. Fingerprints and retinal patterns are unique, even among identical twins. Your suggestion implies that an emperor who wanted someone to play-act him when he was away from court went to the trouble to biologically engineer a double so similar that the Emperor himself was at risk of being replaced by it - presumably just in case some upstart courtier demanded his lord subject himself to a retina scan to prove himself. Coming up with an excuse to need a double that exact stretches the suspension of disbelief like taffy in a taffy puller.

Allow me to paint a more realistic picture.

Dulinor assassinates Strephon - or maybe the Strephon clone. His coup running into trouble, he flees while his men buy a couple of days to cover his escape. His J6 ship books it for Dlan. Supposedly he arrives ahead of word - but word is travelling at J6 too, at least for the navy that's being ordered to arrest him. However, that's a minor point: no great difficulty to evade capture until he can reach Ilelish space, where loyal allies will stop the word from going further and see that only his version goes farther. He has the edge in timing - word is going out to his fleets and they are preparing even as he arrives at Dlan. And, he has no choice: take the gamble, or wait for Imperial Marines from Core to show up and arrest him.

However

Ilelish has 16 fleets, plus the reserve fleets. Zarushagar, also part of the Domain of Ilelish, has another 15 plus reserve fleets, though the first battle map in Survival Margin seems to imply that some of the more distant fleets on Zarushagar's trailing edge maybe opted to remain loyal to the Imperium. Ties of friendship and personal loyalties might deliver another 3 or 4 fleets from Gushemege and as many from Dagudashaag, but this is uncertain, and at any event some force must be left in place to stop potential flanking attacks from Gushemege and Masilia. Verge doesn't seem interested in joining the fight. So, roughly 25 to 30 first-rate fleets are heading toward Core, with a few more covering a potential Massilia flank and a few covering a potential Gushemege flank, and the colonial - er, reserve - fleets in, well, reserve. Best guess is Dulinor's fleets could have been engaging Imperial assets by the end of 1116 to early 1117 - which is consistent with Lucan getting word and panicking around 90-1117.

Arrayed against Dulinor are the 16 fleets of Core and the 4 fleets of Capital, the 12-ish fleets of Dagudashaag that remain loyal - those two sectors alone with sufficient strength to stop Dulinor once they get organized - the 10-ish loyal (until Strephon pops up) fleets of Gushemege, and the 16 fleets of Massilia plus maybe what appear to be a few Zarushagar fleets on the rimward edge that remain loyal. In other words, Dulinor is opposed by about twice his strength. As of 90-1117 there is absolutely no reason to expect the fleets of Massilia and Gushemege to not respond when the legitimate heir of their murdered Emperor calls them to war against the man who murdered him. Takes about a month for word to reach them from Capital, figure another month for them to issue orders to their fleets and those fleets to start moving. Around mid-1117 - before Strephon ever makes his announcement - Dulinor is faced with his thrust on Capital being stalled somewhere in Dagudashaag while the combined forces of two sectors thrust in at either flank, opposed by a handful of main fleets and his reserve fleets. Note that under this timeline, by the time Strephon speaks on the balcony at Usdiki, Gushemege's fleets are already on the Ilelish border fighting the few rebel main fleets screening that border.

 

[Carlobrand]

Yes, Corridor fleet is quickstepping it to Zarushagar while their sector burns behind them. Yes, Old Expanses fleet is likewise running the wrong way while the Solomani conquer that sector. But Ilelish is falling - Dulinor must withdraw his fleets from the thrust on Core and bring them back to stop both flanking attacks, or Dlan falls within a couple of months. And all the while he is being pursued by a Core/Dagudashaag combined fleet as strong as his own. Outnumbered 2 to 1 before either the Corridor or Old Expanses fleets ever arrive to add their weight, Ilelish falls before the end of 1117. And most of this is occurring before Strephon's or Margaret's meddling can have much impact.

Margaret wants to make a play for the throne? Strephon wants to prove his identity? Fine - that's business for the Imperial Administration. When those occur, the momentum of a thousand years empire of nine thousand worlds is already carrying Gushemege and Massilian fleets to battle at the borders of Ilelish and Zarushagar - because whatever else is happening, by the gods, he killed Strephon, or at least tried to, and then he sent his fleets to war with Imperium - and that momentum will see Ilelish crushed beneath an enemy with a 2 to 1 advantage before the issue of who should sit the throne is tackled by the remaining aspirants. This is an existential fight against a rebellious domain: the pressure to keep Gushemege and Massilia at home does not arise until the math says Gushemege and Massilia are already well into the fight, a fight not for Lucan but for the murdered Strephon. To say anything different is to say that the thousand years of history that Traveller has claimed up to that point - the destruction of Ilelish, the war with the Solomani - are utterly irrelevant in an Imperium famous for its conservatism.

 

[rancke]

All these numbers don't really prove much, except on paper. And historical events are notoriously unsafe to base odds on, because they only represent one spin each on Fate's roulette. Low-probability outcomes do occur. One in ten chances comes out one time in ten.

Assuming we can judge from a sample of two, the smallest region that has a shot at resisting the Imperium is about a sector or perhaps a bit more (Ilelish lost, Julian Protectorate won). The Solomani Sphere managed to fight the Imperium to a standstill. So a full domain should have a shot. And Dulinor has the advantage of being prepared. He's unlikely to be able to get life insurance, but his cause is not hopeless.

One big factor that acts against Lucan is logistics. The further fleets are from their normal bases and the more of them you concentrate in one spot, the more difficult it is to keep them supplied.


Hans

 

[mike wightman]

The only explanation that makes sense to me is that the political divisions within the Imperium that spurred Dulinor to act were already moving like tectonic plates towards conflict.

Although the Golden age Imperium is presented as a stable place, the rapid fragmentation of the rebellion shows that in reality it was already fractured.

Is there evidence for this?

All I can think of is in the early adventures and library data the Imperium is not averse to locking up dissident nobles and the IN interdicts worlds as a punitive measure. Then there is the widespread use of jump 5 and 6 naval couriers by the military while the civilian communication is limited to jump 4.

Greedy sector dukes would realise that they have an advantage in controlling the economy within their own sectors and thus could concentrate more wealth and power for themselves.

Too much of the rebellion is told from a military viewpoint and the movement of fleets, what is sadly lacking is information about how sub-sector and sector dukes aligned themselves.

 

[Carlobrand]

The only explanation that makes sense to me is that the political divisions within the Imperium that spurred Dulinor to act were already moving like tectonic plates towards conflict.

Although the Golden age Imperium is presented as a stable place, the rapid fragmentation of the rebellion shows that in reality it was already fractured.
...

I'm a demanding reader. I've put down sci fi novels half-finished for less of a discrepancy. To me, that theme is like the detective novel where you read all the way through the book and then the killer turns out to be someone brought out of left field at the last minute: the writer is cheating his audience.

MT suffers, in a way, in that it's essentially a new product trying to flow from an established universe. If this had played out in the CT universe, I'd have expected some hints before they dropped the bomb - signs of dissension, corruption scandals, a bit more scene-setting. They tried to do that with Virus, issued a game that introduced us to the little critters before they used them to try to blow up the known universe. MT was forced to open with the Emperor's assassination and then retcon in all the cracks and fissures to justify it - and, perhaps because the system didn't survive long enough, there really wasn't enough material produced to make the break-up feel like anything but a forced effort. I guess I can't fault them for that too much, but as someone pretty firmly grounded in the CT milieu as I painted it above, the differences between the pictures the two milieus paint is rather jarring for me. It was really like stepping off the transporter and realizing you were in an alternate universe, if you get my drift.

Too much of the rebellion is told from a military viewpoint and the movement of fleets, what is sadly lacking is information about how sub-sector and sector dukes aligned themselves.

I agree with that.

On the other hand, the military viewpoint is told poorly as well. They wanted the Imperium fracturing. They contrived the Imperium fracturing. It plays out like their version of the Fifth Frontier War, when we all sit back and scratch our heads andsay, "What the heck? Why didn't they do X, Y, and Z? Why would they do A, B,and C?" And then there's that business about Strephon sitting on his ass for more than a year.

Let's take this thread in another direction. I'm not a fan of the Shattered Imperium, but some people are. So, let's play with the canon story and see if we can tweak it to make it work.

1. What scene-setting elements might we add to set the stage for an Imperium in its final days, outwardly monolithic and yet with clear signs that the cement holding it together was crumbling?

2. How do we play out the civil war in a way that sems real and yet achieves the end? As I pointed out, it seems like Ilelish doesn't stand a chance, that the war can conclude within a year. How do we divert Massilia and Gushemege fleets to give Ilelish that chance - or is there a way to trigger the shattering of the empire while the Imperial Fleets are exhausting themselves conquering rebellious Ilelish?

3. What the heck is with Strephon?

I'm going to start it off with an idea.

It is 188-1116. Word has arrived at Depot/Lishun of the assassination of Strephon - and been delivered to Strephon. Strephon is alive, but only a handful of people involved in a very secret project and some of the crew of his ship know that. He does what he should - he prepares to head for Capital. Along the way, he learns that Lucan has taken the throne and dissolved the moot - and his ship is attacked.

After jumping in, while heading for orbit, a Naval cruiser opens up suddenly with its meson gun. Unprepared, ambushed, Strephon's ship is wrecked and much of his crew dead. By some miracle, he and a handful survive, take to boats and manage planetfall; the ambush attacker can't react because it's hurriedly acceding to demands that it power down and surrender while its captain is trying to figure out just what the hell happened.

Strephon is aground. Someone tried to kill him. That someone knew he was alive and what ship he was on, and there are only a handful of people not with him who have that knowledge. Either one of them leaked information to Lucan, or one of them is manipulating Lucan and pulled off the attack without Lucan's knowledge. Either scenario is possible - in fact, Strephon thinks he has a good idea who it is, and he thinks the latter scenario is most likely. However, Strephon dare not reveal himself now; odds are good that there are other assassins waiting for just that, and there's no way for him to be absolutely certain of anyone but the few people who survived with him.

Strephon cannot tap his own wealth - it would be proof he survived the attack. There is among the survivors a lieutenant with some money; it's a good bet the unknown puppetmaster knows who is with Strephon, and his local agents will have their ears open for the activities of any of Strephon's surviving entourage, but they need funds. The lieutenant draws out a large amount, gives most to Strephon, then takes transport off world to another star system, hoping to lead the assassins away. Meanwhile, another of Strephon's surviving entourage locates a down-on-his-luck free trader and persuades him to smuggle the small group off-planet and to another world; the trader is led to believe they are minor nobles from offworld who've gotten themselves in some trouble with the local government and want to avoid an embarrassing scandal.

Strephon is on the lam.

 

[Vladika]

Strephon cannot tap his own wealth - it would be proof he survived the attack. There is among the survivors a lieutenant with some money; it's a good bet the unknown puppetmaster knows who is with Strephon, and his local agents will have their ears open for the activities of any of Strephon's surviving entourage, but they need funds. The lieutenant draws out a large amount, gives most to Strephon, then takes transport off world to another star system, hoping to lead the assassins away. Meanwhile, another of Strephon's surviving entourage locates a down-on-his-luck free trader and persuades him to smuggle the small group off-planet and to another world; the trader is led to believe they are minor nobles from offworld who've gotten themselves in some trouble with the local government and want to avoid an embarrassing scandal.

Strephon is on the lam.

THAT is a SUPERB PC game scenario!

1) PCs recognize him and Strephon attempts to have them killed for security reasons

2) PCs recognize him and Strephon is forever grateful

3) PCs recognize him and Strephon is embarrassed and exiles them latter

4) PCs don't recognize him, and wonder why every Naval vessel (On either, or any, side) is taking an inordinate interest in the comings and goings of every ship in an expanding circle around the rescue planet.

5) PCs don't recognize him, and wonder why when things look exceedingly poor for them "Deus ex machina", an Imperial warship saves their bacon (said ship is destroyed in the ensuing melee, but PCs escape; PCs jump before knowing outcome; etc.)

The Hook is set, and the Plots are infinite!

 

[Vargas]

The only explanation that makes sense to me is that the political divisions within the Imperium that spurred Dulinor to act were already moving like tectonic plates towards conflict.

Although the Golden age Imperium is presented as a stable place, the rapid fragmentation of the rebellion shows that in reality it was already fractured.

Is there evidence for this?

All I can think of is in the early adventures and library data the Imperium is not averse to locking up dissident nobles and the IN interdicts worlds as a punitive measure.

Unfortunately the only explanations I can think of are metagame in nature. The Rebellion kicks off as it does for narrative reasons to support the initial setting desired by GDW. The early Classic Traveller references to imprisoned senators and "barbarians" get retconned away starting in 1980 or so. From the period of roughly 1980 to 1987 we're given an image of a very stable Third Imperium with no apparent evidence of the kind of fundamental problems that would cause it to implode so rapidly. We could assume that because so much of what was published during that time takes place at a distance in the Marches or the Rim that we are denied evidence of the rot at the Core, but it's nothing more than an assumption.

Too much of the rebellion is told from a military viewpoint and the movement of fleets, what is sadly lacking is information about how sub-sector and sector dukes aligned themselves.

This would be consistent with the wargammer looking at a strategic map outlook Joe Fugate suggests that GDW had in plotting the Rebellion. (Looking at Joe's response to questions posed to him here).

 

[Uxi]

I do not like Lucan - no surprise, he's not written to be likable. I do consider him to be capable of murdering his brother. However, I do not think the word of a fugitive implicated in the murder, six months after the deed, is going to carry much weight outside of the Imperial equivalent of the National Enquirer and perhaps the far future equivalent of Oliver Stone. The crazier Lucan got, the more weight the allegation would carry, but early on in the business it would have essentially no impact.

You're focused on the wrong event. The murder is just idle gossip for the proles. Right on the heels of THIS news is political word that's going to ripple is the suppression of the Moot and the arrest of the Duke making the biggest waves (Simarl of Ushra). This is also in 1116.

This is a conservative Imperium which has hung together for over a thousand years, despite incidents that could have torn it apart - incidents little different from the assassination of Strephon and the rebellion of Ilelish, when it comes down to it. Strephon was, by most accounts, not a bad emperor. Dulinor is the first hint we have that there's a serious grievance to be had.

Most of that is ancient history, though. The Imperium of Strephon is not even the Imperium of Arbellatra coming in at the back end of a long period of chaos, to say nothing of that which lost the Julian War or was slowly turning towards the Vilani against the Solomani elements at Court (cf: Rats & Cats) before it went to stalemate with the rebel Solomani sphere.

Worse than that it's not even his father's Imperium anymore. The dynamic is different. The whole reason for the re-emphasis on the Domains speaks to the Imperium fragmenting already. It's planning for even worse by initiating Jumpstart at the same time Strephon is trying to fix the Imperium by elevating Dulinor to begin with. (cf: Survival Margin).

Or you should do some research. Fingerprints and retinal patterns are unique, even among identical twins. Your suggestion implies that an emperor who wanted someone to play-act him when he was away from court went to the trouble to biologically engineer a double so similar that the Emperor himself was at risk of being replaced by it - presumably just in case some upstart courtier demanded his lord subject himself to a retina scan to prove himself. Coming up with an excuse to need a double that exact stretches the suspension of disbelief like taffy in a taffy puller.

It's not my suggestion, it's the explicit premise in MT which TNE built on. They say they left in fail safes to identify them and that it's semi common for high nobles to do. Either it's etiquette fiction or cloning is more precise than even identical twins. GURPS Biotech has a few ideas on that. It could be as mundane as something on the other end and it's illegal for anyone but the Imperial Physician (who went with Strephon to Depot) to record the Emperor's DNA or detailed medical information. The whole IRIS facade and Strephon wondering who they are (and Lucan's playing along with it) suggests the secrets are held pretty close to the vest...

In other words, Dulinor is opposed by about twice his strength.

Note that historically comparable military forces have wanted a 3:1 advantage to displace an entrenched defender without risking big losses.

As of 90-1117 there is absolutely no reason to expect the fleets of Massilia and Gushemege to not respond when the legitimate heir of their murdered Emperor calls them to war against the man who murdered him.

At the same time word comes it is anything but conclusive that Lucan is a legitimate heir for both the murder of the brother and the suppression of the Moot which no noble outside of arm's reach of Lucan is going to take well. Many will probably salute and obey when the transfer orders come, but clearly they're not enthusiastic as they would be for Strephon... or Dulinor... or anyone but Lucan, really. Some will be truculent or find they need to do emergency maintenance instead. Malingering and desertion will almost certainly rise, particularly after 1117.

One big factor that acts against Lucan is logistics. The further fleets are from their normal bases and the more of them you concentrate in one spot, the more difficult it is to keep them supplied.

The conduct of the Rebellion shows that that Dulinor engages in rear raiding, as well. If Lucan's admirals will need to diminish their offensive strength by distributing some portion of their attacking forces by proper protection of their logistics... and if Lucan will permit it. He would probably be thinking like Carlobrand and ordering them full in, leaving their logistics exposed, which Dulinor should be able to take advantage of, to the detriment of these admirals and Lucan's increasing frustration. I'm getting visions of Bull Run in space.

The only explanation that makes sense to me is that the political divisions within the Imperium that spurred Dulinor to act were already moving like tectonic plates towards conflict.

Although the Golden age Imperium is presented as a stable place, the rapid fragmentation of the rebellion shows that in reality it was already fractured.

Is there evidence for this?

In MT it's implicit and by TNE it was very explicit. CT just wasn't developed enough. Absence of evidence and all that.