Milieu Overview?

[mike wightman]

Maybe it accelerates in regions where jump travel is common...

 

[kilemall]

Maybe it sped up?

As stellar density reduces, less gravitic interference?

 

[kilemall]

Neat idea. Like the way a water-wave speeds up as it approaches land. Strange.

Or it’s less a transmission and more being drawn to the rim, the wave is filling a vacuum.

Or the mcguffin for the big MgT rim threat campaign actually induced the wave. Or the wave is a defensive measure by entities at the galactic core that don’t care who gets hurt long as the big IT gets defeated.

Known Space is just collateral damage in the Great Galactic Game.

 

[robject]

Known Space is just collateral damage in the Great Galactic Game.

That is true.

 

[aramis]

TGI and Marc Miller 1: The Point of Departure

So I spoke with Marc today and asked him about The Grand Imperium's timeline.

He had nothing to add. Loren didn't confide in him.

Marc was not familiar with any of it -- Dulinor's gig being sabotaged to explode in orbit around Capital, likely taking the saboteur's life along with Dulinor's and whoever else was on it. He well understood the likelihood of a point of departure earlier than 1116, but agreed that of course the setting does just fine without any info. What Loren provided was more than sufficient to sustain the setting.

The Illelish Guards being involved as well in the canonical assassination means simply ganking Dulinor isn't going to justify the timeline lacking the rebellion. The assassination needs literally a few hundred people in the change, and a flat minimum travel time of 2 months; at the scale of years, 1115 is dubiously late

Marc did provide one piece of guidance: that a change to create a setting doesn't have to cause a lot of major changes. Thus the divergence doesn't cause problems, it only presents opportunities.

The lack of the rebellion is literally 10,000+ major things... as no one's deciding which side to support.

AS civil wars only last past the initial trigger when there are serious disconnects within the societies comprising the government experiencing the civil war, that there was a war means the assassination was a trigger, not a cause, and the succession crisis the real trigger. For the imperium to not be coming apart at the seams stretches credulity if the only change is Dulinor's accident and thus the lack of succession crisis.

 

[BackworldTraveller]

Foundation.

Mote in God's Eye.

Considering there are trillions of citizens, selected individuals with access to complete archives will be placed in a variety of arks, hoping that one or more can survive, more or less in tact, the Wave rolling over them, and then kickstart human civilization.

Why wouldn't they survive. The wave has no effect on computers or the Virus would be affected.

 

[Condottiere]

I've never cared about, nor really studied, the Virus, Wave, or Rebellion, but I understand all three are Apocalyptic Then.

 

[mike wightman]

No. Taken separately none of them were apocalyptic.

The Rebellion could have had an end and then new empires rise from the safe regions that remained. Those safe areas and the Marches would still be recognizably Third Imperium. The were a couple of fan made continuations of the setting that would see the war end and rebuilding begin.

There was even a proposal by the MegaTraveller author at the time to continue the setting to the rebuilding phase, and several of his ideas are noticeable in TNE.

Virus on its own would not have the effect that it had on the war-torn Imperium, and there is an awful lot of incorrect assumptions about what Virus was/is capable of.

The metagame behind the wave was to promote psionics within the setting, not to be some sort of apocalypse.

The Zhodani nobility were affected by the wave in a major way because they are trained psions, thus some of them would suffer the serious effects. while the biggest issue was the disruption to their society.

The original version of the wave is very different to the retcon.

 

[Grav_Moped]

The Illelish Guards being involved as well in the canonical assassination means simply ganking Dulinor isn't going to justify the timeline lacking the rebellion. The assassination needs literally a few hundred people in the change, and a flat minimum travel time of 2 months; at the scale of years, 1115 is dubiously late

The question is, is there another individual who could make a subsequent plausibly legitimate attempt using the organization/infrastructure of the thwarted attempt?

The lack of the rebellion is literally 10,000+ major things... as no one's deciding which side to support.

Without the succession crisis as the trigger, do they need to make that decision? Granted, that may be your point.

AS civil wars only last past the initial trigger when there are serious disconnects within the societies comprising the government experiencing the civil war, that there was a war means the assassination was a trigger, not a cause, and the succession crisis the real trigger. For the imperium to not be coming apart at the seams stretches credulity if the only change is Dulinor's accident and thus the lack of succession crisis.

Not necessarily. It may have been a legitimacy crisis in the aftermath of the succession crisis. Which is to say, there were enough factions refusing to view the attempted succession process ("right of assassination") as legitimate that it enabled open warfare. If there was no such crisis, and succession eventually followed normal procedures, those normal processes could provide sufficient institutional legitimacy for the incumbent and successor so as to forestall armed conflict.

That is, if a weak claim, a gun, and a small army is all you need to earn the pretty chair, then a (subjectively) better claim and a fleet is a superior justification so why not take a shot at it? Then the next faction realizes that they have a bigger fleet and (for them, subjectively) an even better claim and we're off to the races. If the first shot (pun intended) is never taken, the status quo holds and institutional/tradition legitimacy carries the incumbent and their successor forward.

I'm not saying that you can't get a civil war without the assassination; instead, that just because there is one with it, it doesn't automatically follow that there eventually would be one without it.

 

[Silverhawk]

The question is, is there another individual who could make a subsequent plausibly legitimate attempt using the organization/infrastructure of the thwarted attempt?

Presuming that the succession to Strephon is Grand Princess Ciencia, Prince Varian, Prince Lucan (top three); I would have Lucan as the likely candidate. Not necessarily in the immediate of the death of Dulinor in a shuttle accident but a little further up the timeline.

Without the succession crisis as the trigger, do they need to make that decision? Granted, that may be your point.

Let's move forward to when Strephon is 'presumably' dying. Princess Ciencia is the heir apparent. If Prince Varian disappears on his trip to see the Imperium (may or may not be an accident) this puts Lucan as second in line. Now let us presume that Lucan still covets the crown. Does he use his 'organization' to push Ciencia aside. This could be a trigger for a succession crisis. Particularly if there are rumors about Varian's disappearance.

Not necessarily. It may have been a legitimacy crisis in the aftermath of the succession crisis. Which is to say, there were enough factions refusing to view the attempted succession process ("right of assassination") as legitimate that it enabled open warfare. If there was no such crisis, and succession eventually followed normal procedures, those normal processes could provide sufficient institutional legitimacy for the incumbent and successor so as to forestall armed conflict.

That is, if a weak claim, a gun, and a small army is all you need to earn the pretty chair, then a (subjectively) better claim and a fleet is a superior justification so why not take a shot at it? Then the next faction realizes that they have a bigger fleet and (for them, subjectively) an even better claim and we're off to the races. If the first shot (pun intended) is never taken, the status quo holds and institutional/tradition legitimacy carries the incumbent and their successor forward.

I'm not saying that you can't get a civil war without the assassination; instead, that just because there is one with it, it doesn't automatically follow that there eventually would be one without it.

So Strephon dies and the issue goes to the Moot. Is Ciencia alive? An alternative to killing her is having her committed/hospitalized or just plain not seen for a while. Disputed succession ensues.

As noted above, this assumes that Lucan still covets the Crown and the Iridium Throne.

Just a thought. And yes it does violate one of the rules in my signature.

 

[Grav_Moped]

Presuming that the succession to Strephon is Grand Princess Ciencia, Prince Varian, Prince Lucan (top three); I would have Lucan as the likely candidate. Not necessarily in the immediate of the death of Dulinor in a shuttle accident but a little further up the timeline.

But would the members of the coup conspiracy infrastructure that in the canon timeline backed Dulinor, have backed any of those other candidates (and would they accept that backing to commit a coup)? That is, was the fundamental motivation simply to replace Strephon with anyone else because he was uniquely bad, or to replace him with a specific individual with a particular power base to advance its interests?

 

[aramis]

Quite likely, if offered the chance, Archduke Brzk of Antares would have made use of the conspiracy if he could.

Dulinor's issue with Strephon was Strephon's conservatism.. It's also important to note that Strephon considered Dulinor a friend, not just a vassal... Dulinor doing this isn't out of character for Dulinor, but was outside of Strephon's expectations of Dulinor.

Brzk is written in such a way that the breakaway of Antares would need only a pretext, any pretext... Vland likewise. The Solomani retaking half the domain of Sol is likewise a standing "wait for a trigger"... The Empress wave alone would likely trigger all three. Or the Lords of Thunder attacking the 3I in Gateway.

Also, we can expect, based upon the way Lucan is written, that the moment Strephon dies, his flunkies take out Iolanthe and he takes out Varian.

This pushes the crisis from «if?» to «when?». Brzk and Vland leave at the crisis.

The issue with the GTU timeline isn't that Dulinor doesn't launch it; it's that no evidence of him trying to set it up is present in the GTU.

 

[tjoneslo]

I'm stunned this page is still up: but here it is:

http://www.sjgames.com/gurps/traveller/tns-oldnews2.html - Dulinor's gig explodes on 131-1116. These are some relevant news posts from the TNS service shortly after that. You want to look toward the bottom of the page.

The commander of the Ilelish Guard resigns.

Capital/Core (2118-A586A98-F) 132-1116

In a tersely-worded press release issued today, General Mueni Arap Rutan, commanding officer of the Imperial Guard, announced that Colonel Hiroshi Enera, commander of the Ilelish Regiment of the Imperial Guard, and three other officers of the same regimen t have submitted their resignations to the Emperor, effective immediately.

None of the officers could be reached for comment, and General Rutan refused to comment further except to say that the officers involved had all cited personal reasons for their resignations.

The Ilelish Regiment was serving its normal month-long period as honor guards in the Imperial palace when the resignations occurred, and continues to serve in that position. No replacements have been appointed to the vacancies thus created - the regiment is currently the personal command of General Rutan. A political motivation for the resignations is suspected, but no comments from anyone involved have been forthcoming.

The Illeish guard is removed from the Capital:

Capital/Core (2118-A586A98-F) 152-1116

The monthly changing of the guard at the Imperial Palace took place today, but palace watchers say the ceremony is a little late. Imperial guard uniforms all look pretty much alike, especially to those unfamiliar with them, but a local military enthusiast whose hobby is Imperial uniforms says the differences are like night and day, and to her trained eyes, the Antares guard has been on duty for almost three weeks.

This, I believe is Strephon returning from the Longbow project to Capital to deal with the fallout of the gig/assassination attempt

Capital/Core (2118-A586A98-F) 212-1116

In-system space ship traffic was snarled today when the arrival of an unexpected Naval courier vessel was vectored to Capital ahead of all other incoming vessels, causing considerable dislocation in orbital traffic control.

The Ilelish sector admiral resigns / is fired.

Dlan/Ilelish (1021-A8D1ADE-G) 244-1116

Sector Admiral Hutara Astrin Ilethian, brother of the late Archduke Dulinor of Ilelish, has announced that he is resigning his commission, effective immediately. In a short press release read by the admiral's newly-appointed aide, Lieutenant Tadashi Conacht hault-Musillo, the admiral stated that he is resigning in order to devote his full attention to the management of the family lands and business interests now that his niece has been appointed Archduchess in her father's place.

The admiral stated that his niece would now be busy with government duties, and would no longer be able to devote the time necessary to keep the various Ilethian family interests running properly.

Asked why the admiral had not made the announcement himself, the lieutenant stated that the admiral has been ill the last few days, and while he was well on his way to recovery, his doctors felt the added strain of a public appearance might delay his recovery.

This was the announcement space Dulinor was supposed to make about crowning himself the New Emperor.

Dlan/Ilelish (1021-A8D1ADE-G) 245-1116

Puzzled citizens of Dlan who wondered why every entertainment channel was airing re-runs during prime-time last night now have an answer. An unknown agency reserved two hours of air time last night and cancelled a week or so ago, without telling anyone what the reservation was for.

The Dlan Minister of Communication's office had no formal comment, but a high official in that office stated "Somebody's out several mega-credits. They reserved the time almost a year ago, and paid by a bank draft from a numbered account, then last wee k we got a message that cancelled the reservation and told us to run whatever we wanted. It was too late to try to sell the time elsewhere, of course, so we let individual regional managers decide."

Speculation is rampant in the local entertainment industry, and guesses range from a new holofilm technique that didn't pan out to a massive (and very costly) practical joke. One rumor was a news flash of great importance, but no one can agree on what that might have been.

 

[GypsyComet]

"They reserved the time almost a year ago"
In a market like Dlan, even a year feels like short notice for global air time.
We were speculating over in the Verge topics that Dulinor was installing loyal officers across the Domain's military at least four years in advance, and probably longer. The honor guard at Capital was probably hand-picked top to bottom, and placed well in advance.

What he could not have gotten away with was wholesale nobility replacement on short notice, which suggests he already had the sympathies of many, at least in the densely populated Ilelish Sector and along a broad path through Zarushagar.

 

[mike wightman]

Is the wave mentioned anywhere in GURPS Traveller? I have the paper copies but not the electronic and I don't recall it being mentioned. LKW would have knowledge of it from his TNE involvement.

 

[daryen]

A few subjects:

- The GTU divergence point.
Again, it could be anything. The simplest is just that Dulinor screwed up and included a double-agent on the gig. The agent knew what was going to happen and sacrificed his life to take out the gig and Dulinor. Because of this, things fell apart, the conspirators were discovered, and things happened like seen in the above TAS new articles. The actual divergence point would be when the double-agent because a double-agent instead of staying loyal to Dulinor. Everything published in the GTU works with that divergence.

If you want something more extravagant than that, the sky is the limit. Go nuts. One that popped into my head is that someone or someones got a vision on what was going to happen and they worked to stop it. Maybe multiple people saw, and each did different things, but at least one worked to stop it. Another thing to consider is that Strephon was not at Capital. Maybe he was in a race against time to stop the assassination after finding out about it. Really, there's no limit to how big you can make it. Personally, without any kind of Word of God, I'd just go for the small, contained divergence in my first paragraph.

- People reacting to the wave.
I completely agree with Marc. The vast majority would do nothing. In fact, I would guess that not only would those who believe they will die before it gets to them not do anything, most of those younger wouldn't do anything, either. They just flat out won't believe it. "There's some kind of "magic wave" coming, faster than the speed of light, and makes us all go crazy? Sure it will ..." Imperial humans are basically "us" from a psychological point of view. That means they will behave in the same kind of manner with which we are used to people today acting. Most people will do nothing because they just won't believe the threat. The threat is still too far off, and even 10 years would be "too far off".

Just look at his example of Floridians, but consider climate change. The vast majority appear to just not believe that such exists. And if it does, it will happen in the indeterminate future. They just don't care. Imperials would be the same. The vast majority would simply live in denial and only start panicking when it is finally hitting any of their neighbors. At which point, of course, it is just too late. In fact, I would expect that the final panic when reality finally starts to set in will cause more damage and destruction that the effects of the wave itself.

- The exception for the wave.
The one main exception I still see is the Darrian Confederation. One of their defining characteristics is their ability to pull together and act collectively in the face of danger or urgency. This is a cultural and possibly genetic difference between them and Imperial humans. So, while the general Imperial human just won't believe this is coming and going to happen, the Darrians will actually believe this and act to deal with it. Together. That includes planning for how to get through it and sending investigations to see what happens during and after the wave. They would then be fully equipped to handle the wave when it finally reaches them. They can only do so much for Darrian, Mire, Entrope, and Zamine, but most of the other worlds would be able to "sleep" through the whole thing, and the big four would be able to recover very quickly.

I would expect that by the time the wave hits Ator, the Darrians are basically fully recovered and actively helping those around them. (That want help, anyway.)

 

[mike wightman]

The Darrians have no history of this. They were almost completely annihilated by the Maghiz and recovered in a very sporadic manner; each world left to its own devices.
The most obvious thing to point out is that they have no central authority, they are a confederacy so each polity (world) representative will have different views on how to cope. They even have a branch of the confederation government that is responsible for settling the disputes between member worlds, hardly an example of singing from the same songsheet.
In point of fact the confederation was only formed in response to Imperial expansion into the SM.

Also it was the Solomani input that drove Darrian scientific and technological progress, so you can thank Solomani DNA for that, not Darrian.

The Confederation itself is governed by a council composed
of one representative of each world in the Confederation. The
council member is selected by the government of the individual
world in whatever manner it deems appropriate. For example,
the representative of Winston (a balkanized world) is elected
by the leadership of all of the nations of Winston; the representative
of Terant 340 (a charismatic dictatorship) is appointed
by that world's dictator. Each representative is appointed for
a term of four years and may be reappointed any number of
times.

 

[Nathan Brazil]

If the general Imperial societal response is to not run from the Wave when it is decades away and panic when it is almost upon their descendants, what would be the responses of the other Coreward societies? Would they really be any different?

The Vilani, in general. Restored Vilani empire or no Rebellion, would they respond any differently?
Gashikan
The Julians
The less mixed Vargr states
and of course My Little Ponies of Death

The Zhodani set aside for the moment. Regardless of speed or deadliness, the Wave is a double whammy to the Zhos.

 

[whartung]

Just look at his example of Floridians, but consider climate change. The vast majority appear to just not believe that such exists. And if it does, it will happen in the indeterminate future. They just don't care.

They don't see the urgency, that's different. It's hard to express urgency on something like that. There are all sorts of mixed signals regarding climate change, even for those supporting the concept.

The Wave won't have that problem. There will be ample visual evidence not of isolated events, but wide spread disaster on surviving planets. Anyone who is skeptical is free to head over. They won't see a faster melting glacier or an eroding beach, they'll see a badly damage society. Like going in with photos of Beirut in the 60's and then touring it in the 80's.

Not only that, they need simply keep looking. It's not happening here and there. It's happening everywhere. They'll see "Here's Regina in October. Here it is 3 months later...". "Here's the capital city, here's the coastal city, here's the city on the other side of the planet. Here's the township with walls built up to keep the marauders and looters out."

While the timing is more difficult, theres plenty of material for a solid education campaign to let people make better informed choices.

 

[daryen]

The Darrians have no history of this. They were almost completely annihilated by the Maghiz and recovered in a very sporadic manner; each world left to its own devices.
The most obvious thing to point out is that they have no central authority, they are a confederacy so each polity (world) representative will have different views on how to cope. They even have a branch of the confederation government that is responsible for settling the disputes between member worlds, hardly an example of singing from the same songsheet.

Just because they do not have a centralized government doesn't mean they can't have societal cooperation. From AM8:

It was during this early period that the Darrians developed a
cultural norm of gregarious cooperation. Without removing the profit or the survival motives, Darrians developed a natural support of the community as a whole.

The Setback was a severe test of Darrian culture. It was the essential social structure of the Darrian community that allowed the survivors to pull together in mutual support and to rebuild the shattered world.

This what I am talking about. They would be able to use this to pull together and handle the catastrophe. Each world may do it on their own, or the Confederation could lead the effort. Either way, they would still be able to pull together.

Also, this isn't necessarily something they do all the time. There has to be something to drive this. I would think an existential threat like the Wave would be sufficient to trigger this.

Besides, think on this: the Darrians, whether they cooperated well or not, still took centuries to rebuild and reconstruct from the Maghiz. It happened with no warning and then they had to deal with it. With the Wave, they know it is coming and they have time to research it. (Which, I might add, is something they love to do anyway.) They also know it will potentially be as devastating as the Maghiz. I can't imagine they aren't going to do everything they can to avoid that fate again.