Modern military response times

[Gallowglacht]

I know we have a few military types on COTI, so hopefully someone can give me some realistic numbers.

My players next game will see them launching a hot rescue on a TL8 world. As TL8 is close to our Armies, what response times are realistic? The world is roughly our world size, 90% Water but with only 600,000,000 people so is less densely populated than ours. Furthermore the islands in question are on the oposite side of the world from the capital and major landmass.
The world is not Balkanised and hasn't seen fighting in 3 generations, so they are not the most experienced. They are not expecting an attack, but are reasonably cautious as there is an embasy of a greater power expected in system.

The forces within 2,000 miles are @100 aircraft, 4 divisions of poor quality infantry, 10 SAM batteries and maybe 5 Major(wet) ships and 15(wet) escorts...

How long before the defenders can get their act together and put together a credible attack?

 

[Border Reiver]

If they have any kind of stand by potential and a reasonable satellite network they could have cruise missile heading in your direction in anywhere between 5 minutes to an hour.

Going by my knowledge of both older and current British doctrine Special Forces can be on the ground in hours but a real honest-to goodness mobilisation can take a couple of weeks (most of which seems to be spent getting on and off buses that don't actually go anywhere ).

How large is the attacking force? That will give a better idea as to the degree of response.

 

[deniable]

As well as size, how much of a show will they be putting on. If it's four guys in an air/raft cruising into town, they're likely to get a visit from the local police. If you come down in task-force strength with all guns blazing then you will get a different response.

Any response will be as Border Reiver mentioned, a layered response. You'll get small, quick units followed by bigger units that take more time to deploy.

One last point, air units @ 2000 km may need to be staged or refueled. This will take time to organize.

 

[navywarlord]

Although this world isn't balkanized, they are familiar with off-world affairs so detecting something coming in from orbit is not new to them.

The best chance of detection and response will probably by naval assets (given the hydro percentage of this world). Depending on the amount of warning the planet's satellite system gives, a task force can be moving in the general direction of the incursion almost immediately. A naval group, moving at full (or flank) speed can be within strike range in less then 3 days (assuming carrier aircraft - missile/gun platforms will have to get closer)...

If the players are landing by assault boat (or even the standard 95tn shuttle) they will only have to deal with the forces in the immediate vicinity (which, of course, depends on how valuable that piece of property is to the local government - a beach resort will only have a few security and local police - a research facility will have a military presence (and faster reaction time) - Is there a local airfield with military aircraft nearby??)

If the players hit it right, they will have 48-72 hours on the ground before the fleet shows up and starts a grid search, effectively sealing off what ever island they landed on.... They have that much time to deal with the locals on hand, grab the package they came for and lift off before their escape window closes.

 

[jec10]

If this world has been at peace for a long time, then you'd want to avoid looking at readiness of countries today that engage in a lot of expeditionary operations or expect conflict. The guys in this scenario are going to be more like the armed forces of countries on Earth a long way from the action. They might have a high readiness special forces element that can deploy by air rapidly to any point on the planet. Some of their navy and COACC might be funded for high readiness and able to respond within hours, but the rest would take longer to do much. I'd assume the SAM batteries would be at high readiness. I wouldn't expect much out of the regular army (unless the adventurers land right on top of them?) for days-weeks (and even then more likely to be light infantry than anything else).

 

[mbrinkhues]

+ What is the enemy (player) strength and equipment?

+ How does the local force set up garrisons/barracks?

Back in the good old days when all the bad guys came with stars(1) a german barrack had a platoon (around 50 person) emergency unit that could be mounted within 5-10 minutes at day and 10-15 at night, less if a real alert was on and magazins where readied. Equipment included MG, 40mm Grenade Launchers and Light AT-weapons. The guard could react even faster but with rifles only.

Nothing is more humiliating than getting your ass handed to you be 50 pissed of conscripts that have been selected as "alert reserve" for the weekend. AGAIN! The "Wachreserve" was known for a short fuse and a mean disposition.

OTOH out of the 2000+ soldiers in the barracks there where about 100-120 present during the weekend. Including the guard, reserve, cooks and Officer/Sergeant/Corporal on Duty.


Monday 06:00 to Friday 15:00 the barracks had between 50 and 100 percent strength (many went home overnight) but a company-sized unit could be alerted from "deep asleep" or normal duty to "Boots and Saddles" for a quick sortie in 60-120 minutes(2)(4). Our tank batallion and mech infantry had a ready platoon (Armed and locked Leopard II or Marder) in the vehicle area.

NATO alert had the whole batallion ready for deployment in about four to six hours but that was only good for "deployment for dispersal" and not for full combat duty. Packing for an extend operation like a two week free-running exercise took at least 2-3 days with radio checks and all.

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The german army was spread all over the territory with divisions of similar composition in every state and regional commands set up for the areas. Back then most islands had no garrison (Borkum had) but in older times (1871-1945) there where garrisons on the islands including Helgoland supported by some big guns.





(1) Some attached Stripes, others Hammer and Sickle. Both wanted to drop nukes
(2) Unless it was the training platoon or the light Infantry. God was an Infantryman(3) and he sure wept that day
(3) Look what he did to his son when Jesus decided to join the cavalry in Jerusalem.
(4) More if you wanted all staff cars with radio and all units fully equiped.

 

[Vargas]

It depends on how long it takes the military force to detect what's going on, assess what course of action it wants to take, issue orders and get assets into place. If the SAR team doesn't spend more than an hour on the ground, I wouldn't envision a lot of problems. (A lot depends on how well prepared the characters are going in).

You describe the forces as being within 2000 miles but what are the closest of those forces? If a goodly number of those 100 aircraft are within 300 miles the PCs could be well and truely hosed.

Last, I don't put a lot of faith in the idea that even special ops forces could realistically deploy in under 72 hours, especially on a world without a recent history of armed conflict. If I'm not mistaken, the ready battalion of the 82nd Airborne has 72 hours to hit the ground after being ordered in and that's a unit held in a state of constant readiness. Special ops, despite Tom Clancy, don't jump into situations willy nilly, they engage in a great deal of planning beforehand in order to minimize time in contact and to maximize speed and surprise.

 

[flykiller]

How long before the defenders can get their act together and put together a credible attack?

icbm, maybe an hour.
bombing raid or cruise missile or airborne insertion, maybe twelve hours.
naval response, maybe two weeks. sooner, if anyone is actually in the area.

none of this counts prep time. if the world is not ready then it may take days or weeks even to begin doing anything at all.

if the world is anticipating any kind of problem at all then there will be the equivilant of a general patton somewhere. _his_ troops are ready, _his_ vehicles are ready, _his_ aircraft are ready. and since the world is 90% water then you can bet there will be a few submarine commando units, and I'll bet one of them is by the island right now on maneuvers.

 

[Gallowglacht]

Thanks for the response guys.

Right background details; The players have their ship "the sword of reason"(a 400dT Victrix), an air raft and a grav bike (dont ask). 2 players are ex-Marines with Coalition light battledress, 2 are ex-navy and the party is rounded out by a doctor, a Noble, a merchant and the Dawn League/Coalition spy they just picked up who is convincing them to rescue some Dawn League personelle, while his intel on them is still accurate. The party were not expecting to be attacking a planet and are not equiped or trained with that in mind, though if they want to risk the ship, it is airframed...

In their favour, as this is New Era timeframe, although the planet has been visited by ships before and has a handfull, it isn't used to detecting intrusions, or dealing with them.

I dont know if the players are planning on using the ship, or the raft, coming in blazing or trying to sneak. Indeed there is still time for them to bottle out and jump to the nearest Coalition base and let them handle it. I think they will go for it though as the spy is emphatic that they can't really wait the 2+ weeks for back up.

The Navy and airforce are the big worries. The local troopers are poorly equiped and lead and 2 battledressed Marines should scare the hell out of them.
1)How much airspare can 100 modern planes effectively patrol, assuming they fly in 2's and are taking it in shifts?
2)Assuming peacetime conditions, how long would an airbase take to fuel, arm and prep 12 aircraft for combat in a third world country?
3)As above but for an aircraft carrier?
4)Finally how long (ball-park) would it take to co-ordinate between services?
For example, if a wet naval captain detects the players ship and wants the airforce to check it out/engage it how long is wasted trying to get to talk to the right guy, argue over jurisdiction, before an order is given to the airforce, again assuming this is not routine?

OK, thats a lot of assumptions and theory, so maybe that makes things difficult to answer. Realism would be nice but fun will be the ultimate decider. For example the army seem too far away to help, so I might adopt the rapid deployment force idea. Also trying to sneak a 60M long starship past aerial, satalite and naval radar may seem far-fetched, but if the players try it, it'll probably work, for the sake of a game. So thanks for realistic scenarios and don't be offended if I don't use some.

 

[Gallowglacht]

It depends on how long it takes the military force to detect what's going on, assess what course of action it wants to take, issue orders and get assets into place. If the SAR team doesn't spend more than an hour on the ground, I wouldn't envision a lot of problems. (A lot depends on how well prepared the characters are going in).

The SAR team will be quick, success or failure, although it is an oportunistic rather than planned raid, one character has experience with Meteoric assaults. She'll try and keep to that momentum.

You describe the forces as being within 2000 miles but what are the closest of those forces? If a goodly number of those 100 aircraft are within 300 miles the PCs could be well and truely hosed.

Depends on how mean I feel. What sort of airspace can 100 planes realistically cover?

Last, I don't put a lot of faith in the idea that even special ops forces could realistically deploy in under 72 hours, especially on a world without a recent history of armed conflict.

Agreed. But might fudge a small group for fun. Unless the Navy/ air force could muster enough to make things interesting.

 

[Gallowglacht]

if the world is anticipating any kind of problem at all then there will be the equivilant of a general patton somewhere. _his_ troops are ready, _his_ vehicles are ready, _his_ aircraft are ready. and since the world is 90% water then you can bet there will be a few submarine commando units, and I'll bet one of them is by the island right now on maneuvers.

You know, now that you mention it, that might be where that sub went....

 

[mbrinkhues]

Back in the cold war days the Airforce had maschines on short alert. Two fully armed and fueled birds, often with crew at the end of the runway. Around two minutes from confirmation to gear up.

Today it is "15 minute readiness" for the planes. Planes are still armed and fueled but in a shelter and not crewed. Exact time varies a bit and the more "panik" the faster. I.e shortly after 9/11 a pair of F4 took of from the Taxiway when an unknown plane was detected instead of going all the way to the runway.

Assuming a big plane like an F4 or F15 deployment speed will be around 900-1000km/h for longer ranges with an operational range of 1000-2000km (for a total of 2000-4000km flight). And they don't need to land on a military base in an emergency, most regional airports will do.

For shorter ranges the planes can be much faster. The two F4's that "intercepted" a motorised sailplane over Frankfurt where on-scene in less than 20 minutes so they likely used burners and went above the Mach.

Very modern planes like Typhoon will be able to go above the Mach even for longer ranges due to their "supercruising" abilities, shortening reaction times (Typhoon marches at 1275km/h with a 1400km operational range)

Also remember that the players ship quite likely has the maneuverability of a bomber rather than a fighter and modern missiles like AIM120 can attack fighters at 60+km and Mach 3+.

And if your flyboys use a decend TO&E than they will have an AWACS or two. Maybe something as small as a Hawkey or as big as a E3C or an A50 Mainstay. Those can cover a lot of ground for a long time all by their own, often including passiv detection.

Given a water world, what are the chances some of the subs have a AA defence system? These are actually developed IRL and subs firing missiles while under water (including HARPOON from the torpedo tubes) are not new IRL either. Maybe some short-mid range SAM (up to HAWK-size) are carried aboard a sub?

Real mean GM could replace some of the SAM with a slightly bigger missile. Nothing says "go away" as directly as a 3.5to nuclear tipped missile coming at you with 100g acceleration. Sprint anyone?

 

[Gallowglacht]

Thanks but that seems too fast for this world. It isn't a cold war power. Its a world that hasn't fought in 70 years, with no terrestrial opponents and only knows of 2 small interstellar powers the 20 world Reformation Coalition and the 4 world empire of Solee, neither of which are hostile and have only been known about for around a year. Plus it's a totalitarian Oligarchy whose rulers are interested mostly in how wealthy they are.

Mach 3 is about 3714 kmph right? By the book the players ship can do 5300 kmph. Can't the ship just outrun the missiles? And despite being a big target, it can just hover. It seems pretty maneuverable..

Thanks, hadn't thought of AA subs.

 

[mbrinkhues]

"15 minute readyness" is the current state of the german airforce. Unless the plane breaks down due to age that is. And the last time Germany was attacked is about as far back.

 

[Border Reiver]

From the invasion of the Falkland Islands to the retaking of Port Stanley, tech 6 to 7 forces, nearly 4000 miles in 72 days. Then again the liberation of South Georgia only took 3 weeks, same conflict, same distances, different force levels.

The CRW wing of the SAS used to claim they could be anywhere in the UK and putting in a quick action (ie unplanned, unsupported within two hours). I tend to doubt the veracity of that but it does mean that you could probably have a company sized special forces unit on scene within 12 hours quite easily.

 

[Gallowglacht]

"15 minute readyness" is the current state of the german airforce. Unless the plane breaks down due to age that is. And the last time Germany was attacked is about as far back.

But that is still an organised and capable service on a Balkanised world, that can still learn lessons from other who have fought, and has a reason to defend its airspace.
Clallum has a one world government with a visitor every month or two, with a government unwilling to pay for top notch tech or training.

 

[mbrinkhues]

But that is still an organised and capable service on a Balkanised world, that can still learn lessons from other who have fought, and has a reason to defend its airspace.
Clallum has a one world government with a visitor every month or two, with a government unwilling to pay for top notch tech or training.

The latter part sounds more like my government and country Even Quadafi didn't visit us and he was barely a day away (Two hours with a TGV to the border than twelfe hours and four-five ICE switches to Berlin)

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Jokes aside, if it is THAT bad, your planet really has a raider problem. Maybe they should take the Guild up on that PAD missile battery And a nice readiness model would be various Airforces in WWII that died on the ground.


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Oh and yes, the ship can outrun IRL missiles like AIM120 and R77/AA12 Adder that are rated at Mach 4+ (not Mach 3+) since Mach 1 = 1225km/h so the ship has some 400km/h on them in a stern chase. IIRC the TNE systems tends to make missiles a tad slower so unless your planes get a side or headshot the ship should outrun them.

Hovering is another problem. Not sure wether a TNE craft can do a sudden stop in athmosphere/play Harrier or has to use aerodynamic drag to slow down. Unlike older system "Thruster plate" ships they can't use their Heplars for braking during athmospheric flight. Simply hoovering could be deadly also if the missile can accept mid-course updates so I see a landig Vixtrix (that has wings and some Air to Air plasma guns) act more like a Harrier once it must slow down and like a Firefox (Movie version) before.

 

[mbrinkhues]

From the invasion of the Falkland Islands to the retaking of Port Stanley, tech 6 to 7 forces, nearly 4000 miles in 72 days. Then again the liberation of South Georgia only took 3 weeks, same conflict, same distances, different force levels.

The CRW wing of the SAS used to claim they could be anywhere in the UK and putting in a quick action (ie unplanned, unsupported within two hours). I tend to doubt the veracity of that but it does mean that you could probably have a company sized special forces unit on scene within 12 hours quite easily.

OTOH the SAS likely is a better model here since it will be an action against a single ship with a resonably small force. Vixtrix sloops are not known for their huge crew quarters, even less so in TNE. So no need to ship Scorpion tanks or scrap together ships and Harriers.

IF the nation has a decend batallion commander (say the equivalent to a South Vietnam Parachute Brigade) than he might have some light Infantry there fast enough to deal at least with non-PA troops. And since this is TNE weapons like the "Carl Gustav 84mm" or a .50BMG equivalent(1) have a decent chance to kill light TL12 Battledress (StarViking standard BD) so that force might have a chance. TL12 is not that much more advanced in Infantry for a TNE game.


(1) I.e the CrunchGun from the Equipment guide

 

[Gallowglacht]

They have one, but it guards the capital. More are on the way if Clallum declines Solee's "offers" to join its empire. And as bad as this worlds defences are the raiders have easier (TL3 guarding relic tech) prey nearby. Raiders are abandoning Shenk subsector in the face of the 2 expanding powers.

I don't mean to imply they are completely hopeless but the times you suggest seem like best case scenario's. This isn't a best case scenario. For example I dont see Clallums aircraft armed and fueled in bunkers, ready to go.

Crunch Gun equivalents may see some action.

 

[mbrinkhues]

They have one, but it guards the capital. More are on the way if Clallum declines Solee's "offers" to join its empire. And as bad as this worlds defences are the raiders have easier (TL3 guarding relic tech) prey nearby. Raiders are abandoning Shenk subsector in the face of the 2 expanding powers.

I don't mean to imply they are completely hopeless but the times you suggest seem like best case scenario's. This isn't a best case scenario. For example I dont see Clallums aircraft armed and fueled in bunkers, ready to go.

Crunch Gun equivalents may see some action.

If they have to up-arm than add at least 30 minutes. Saw a german airforce crew perform that during an open day in 1985. They took about 10-15 minutes to fix the Sidewinders to an F4 (didn't use Sparrows back than) and they where likely the "best team". Refueling could be done at the same time if you have trust in your crew otherwise add some more minutes. Those numbers assume a nearby missile storage bunker and ready equipment.