The Oz
SOC-14 1K
...having taken some time to think about this....
I agree that I made a mistake with how large the volume that the target ship could actually be in =at the time of the weapon arriving=. I do kinda wish you'd not used the term "gross conceptual error" as it brings back bad memories to this former Navy nuke.
But I'm not sure I understand you about the velocity of the target ship distorting the shape of the volume the target ship can occupy at the time of the weapon arriving.
To use a simple example, I'm thinking of a ship moving at 1000 meters/second, with a maximum change in potential position of 100 meters in the time available (2 seconds, as we were talking about before). If the target just coasts, it'll be 2000 meters further along the vector the enemy last knew about. If the target chooses to continue to accelerate along its established vector, it'll be 100 meters further along, or 2100 meters from where the enemy last knew it to be. If the target decelerates, it'll be 100 meters short of the possible future position, or 1900 meters along it's last known vector. If the ship accelerates at 90 degrees to its vector, it'll be 100 meters off to the side (top, bottom) from it's projected position. This (to my imagination) produces a 100 meter radius sphere where the ship could be in 2 seconds, the sphere centered around the ship's predicted position without any change in its original vector.
I don't see how the magnitude of the ship's original vector can change the shape of the ship's possible position zone. The magnitude of the original vector can and does change just where that PPZ will be (in a predictable fashion) but the shape is still a sphere.
Please understand that I am not criticizing or disagreeing, I just don't see how things work the way you say they do. I am using just simple "tip-to-tail" vector addition instead of calculus (I don't feel like brushing off my calculus just now) but I don't think that would affect things this much.
One thing else in this is that even a 6-G ship can't change its vector that much in only 2 seconds, which leads me to wonder about just how big TRAVELLER warships tend to be and how much of that PPZ the ship might still occupy and just how big the zone of effect might be for a spinal mount meson gun? We know the potential change in position is small, and if the ships are big and the weapon bursts are big it might be very hard to generate a miss just from evasive action. (I have always imagined bursts from meson guns as being essentially linear as the mesons decay at slightly different times, with a big burst in the middle of the line where most of them decay.) Which would put the whole idea of Agility into question and make electronic warfare capabilities much more important as the way to get the enemy to miss.
I agree that I made a mistake with how large the volume that the target ship could actually be in =at the time of the weapon arriving=. I do kinda wish you'd not used the term "gross conceptual error" as it brings back bad memories to this former Navy nuke.
But I'm not sure I understand you about the velocity of the target ship distorting the shape of the volume the target ship can occupy at the time of the weapon arriving.
To use a simple example, I'm thinking of a ship moving at 1000 meters/second, with a maximum change in potential position of 100 meters in the time available (2 seconds, as we were talking about before). If the target just coasts, it'll be 2000 meters further along the vector the enemy last knew about. If the target chooses to continue to accelerate along its established vector, it'll be 100 meters further along, or 2100 meters from where the enemy last knew it to be. If the target decelerates, it'll be 100 meters short of the possible future position, or 1900 meters along it's last known vector. If the ship accelerates at 90 degrees to its vector, it'll be 100 meters off to the side (top, bottom) from it's projected position. This (to my imagination) produces a 100 meter radius sphere where the ship could be in 2 seconds, the sphere centered around the ship's predicted position without any change in its original vector.
I don't see how the magnitude of the ship's original vector can change the shape of the ship's possible position zone. The magnitude of the original vector can and does change just where that PPZ will be (in a predictable fashion) but the shape is still a sphere.
Please understand that I am not criticizing or disagreeing, I just don't see how things work the way you say they do. I am using just simple "tip-to-tail" vector addition instead of calculus (I don't feel like brushing off my calculus just now) but I don't think that would affect things this much.
One thing else in this is that even a 6-G ship can't change its vector that much in only 2 seconds, which leads me to wonder about just how big TRAVELLER warships tend to be and how much of that PPZ the ship might still occupy and just how big the zone of effect might be for a spinal mount meson gun? We know the potential change in position is small, and if the ships are big and the weapon bursts are big it might be very hard to generate a miss just from evasive action. (I have always imagined bursts from meson guns as being essentially linear as the mesons decay at slightly different times, with a big burst in the middle of the line where most of them decay.) Which would put the whole idea of Agility into question and make electronic warfare capabilities much more important as the way to get the enemy to miss.