Psychohistory Rules?

[Maitete]

Hey all,

I've been poring over all of the CT reprints, JTAS reprints, and CotI forums, to no avail. I've found several descriptions of what Psychohistory is (and, having read all of the Foundation books several times, I'm fairly familiar with), but nowhere is there any advice on how to use Psychohistory as a skill...

I'm hoping to create a Psychohistorian as an NPC in my CT game, specifically as a mouthpiece for interesting happenings in the future of Traveller (we're going to start a new campaign in 1084 and play through TNE, etc.), sort of like a TNS/Nostradamus lovechild. Anyway, I can certainly just make it up, but if there is a good set of rules on how it works, how accurate it is, and what sorts of uses it has in the Third Imperium, I'd like to use it. Does anyone know if such a thing exists?

If not, have any of you rules gearheads (I'm talking to you Supplement 4; I've used every rule you've posted) thought about a "Special Supplement" for Psychohistory?

-Tony

 

[G. Kashkanun Anderson]

The one known attempt at Foundation-style psychohistory by the Imperium is widely regarded as a miserable, dangerous failure. The Psionics Suppressions of the 770's-790's are indicated by canon to have been the result of bungled, ham-handed attempts at social manipulation -- and subsequently as evidence that Imperial understanding of psychohistory as a discipline has a long way to go before it can be officially regarded as useful.

Unofficially ... well ... that's what "OTU" is all about, right?

Hivers are much better at the art, on the other hand. After all, manipulation on all levels is a major part of their psychological and social makeup. Their method of victory in the Hiver-K'kree war can be regarded as a quick 'n dirty act of psychohistorical manipulation.

There is some canonical evidence, on the other hand, that Hivers find humans particularly challenging to deal with; so maybe the problem with the Imperial scientists (see above) isn't so much that they're less competent than their Hiver counterparts, but rather that the history they're trying to preordain is a human one.

 

[mike wightman]

About the only other reference to psychohistory is as an area of study for Imperial Research Stations.

Could it require a psionic talent in the 'special' category?

Wouldn't the effects of such a skill have to be measured in decades at the least?

 

[jfetters]

About the only other reference to psychohistory is as an area of study for Imperial Research Stations.

Could it require a psionic talent in the 'special' category?

Wouldn't the effects of such a skill have to be measured in decades at the least?

Yeah - I view Psychohistory as a process rather than a skill. If you take the Asimov concept, it is a combination of psionics, sociology, mathematics, physics and probably a few others that I can't think of at the moment.

In some ways, it is similar to the Hiver Manipulation concept.

 

[Gadrin]

Hey all,

I've been poring over all of the CT reprints, JTAS reprints, and CotI forums, to no avail. I've found several descriptions of what Psychohistory is (and, having read all of the Foundation books several times, I'm fairly familiar with), but nowhere is there any advice on how to use Psychohistory as a skill...

I'm hoping to create a Psychohistorian as an NPC in my CT game, specifically as a mouthpiece for interesting happenings in the future of Traveller (we're going to start a new campaign in 1084 and play through TNE, etc.), sort of like a TNS/Nostradamus lovechild. Anyway, I can certainly just make it up, but if there is a good set of rules on how it works, how accurate it is, and what sorts of uses it has in the Third Imperium, I'd like to use it. Does anyone know if such a thing exists?

If not, have any of you rules gearheads (I'm talking to you Supplement 4; I've used every rule you've posted) thought about a "Special Supplement" for Psychohistory?

-Tony

If you have it, take a look at GURPS Traveller (the main book) on p55, there's a definition there in the Library Data section.

It's listed as something that's not practical but still being investigated on a small scale.

 

[boomslang]

I've been poring over all of the CT reprints, JTAS reprints, and CotI forums, to no avail. I've found several descriptions of what Psychohistory is (and, having read all of the Foundation books several times, I'm fairly familiar with), but nowhere is there any advice on how to use Psychohistory as a skill...

Have you looked, in their Alien Module, at the way Hivers use/acquire Manipulation skill? It always struck me as a fairly similar activity, albeit with a much narrower reach; maybe the analogy would be Manipulationsychohistory::Ship Tactics:Fleet Tactics...

 

[Maitete]

Have you looked, in their Alien Module, at the way Hivers use/acquire Manipulation skill? It always struck me as a fairly similar activity, albeit with a much narrower reach; maybe the analogy would be Manipulationsychohistory::Ship Tactics:Fleet Tactics...

I have read the Hiver module, which I really like. Unfortunately, it only gives rules for a career called Manipulator, with no real explanation for any mechanics on the process. It does give some great examples of manipulations, and I may just have to use story methods, which is fine. I just thought because they list it in the Library data, there may have been a place where it was used as a specific skill, rather than a roleplaying process. If there were situational DMs, and a description of effects that can be achieved with the skill, I'd like to use them.

From the response so far, though, it looks like it's not delineated anywhere official. Thanks for all of the replies so far!

 

[boomslang]

If there were situational DMs, and a description of effects that can be achieved with the skill, I'd like to use them.

Psychohistory is not really the sort of thing you resolve as a (modified) task roll; it's more suited to the over-reaching story arc of an epic campaign.

I mean, seriously -- consider: "To create a massive public relations campaign to drum up political opposition to the Zhodani mind-ripping fascists? 8+; DMs +Psychohistory Skill, +1 if INT 13+... <roll, roll>... ooooh, a modified 13... lessee here... Critical Success: a massive wave of anti-psionic prejudice sweeps across all the Domains within half a generation, resulting in all psioincs being outlawed in Imperial Space in perpetuity and giving the Third Imperium a marked strategic disadvantage for centuries to come... great campaign everybody! See you next week!"

Surely we should avoid that sort of nonsense, eh what?



Psychohistory is a very soft and mushy part of a character; even those rare individuals who have familiarity with it won't be at liberty to discuss it, nor list it on their curriculum vitae, et cetera. I see it more as part of character background, not skillset.

Also note that The Real Strephon™ implicitly had a level or two in Psychohistory in the Arrival Vengeance adventure, IIRC... but the authors were as ambiguous about it as possible even there...

 

[Tysis]

It has been a while but if I remember correctly psychohistory was focused on prediction and not manipulation.

The trouble was manipulation is that by changing something the prediction becomes invalid, so you need a new set of data for future changes. Even a small change can have massive reprecussions.

 

[boomslang]

It has been a while but if I remember correctly psychohistory was focused on prediction and not manipulation.

The trouble was manipulation is that by changing something the prediction becomes invalid, so you need a new set of data for future changes. Even a small change can have massive reprecussions.

In the Asimovian sense, yes; in the Trav sense, not so much.

The purpose of prediction is to take advantage of the situation; in the case of the Psioncs Suppressions, the prediction underestimated the extent of the resulting success... by exploiting a prediction, one can in fact change the future. For example, the high-technology caches that were intended to "Jump Start" the rebuilding of interstellar society after the Rebellion & the Empress Wave and all that: psychohistorical models predicted a millennium-long Second Long Night, but the caches were a scheme to cut that down to more like a century in duration...

 

[Whipsnade]

Hivers are much better at the art, on the other hand.

GKA,

A close reading of canon - even before the release of Aliens of the Rim - suggests that the Hivers believe they are manipulators. There is a great difference between what we believe to be true and what is actually true.

Do Hivers attempt to "manipulate" each other? Yes. Do Hivers attempt to "manipulate" the minor races in the Federation? Yes. Do Hivers attempt to "manipulate" other Major Races? Yes. Let me suggest, however, that the differences between what the Hivers do and what every other sophont species does is merely one of semantics.

What is politics? What is diplomacy? What are the myriad of policies dealing with a myriad of things like trade or justice or education? They all are attempts by various means to coax, coerce, or channel the behavior of others. Any sophont species does this, but only the Hivers call it manipulation. Manipulation is simply the Hiver term for politics, diplomacy, and policies.

Compare the following: the Imperium tells a "minor race" "You're a minor race and must live by the rules of our huge, human-dominated polity because you never developed jump drive." and the Hivers tell a "minor race" Your species is pigeonholed as combat fodder, administrators, or traders because we manipulated you to be that way.' However, what's the actual difference between those two statements?

The truth of the matter is that the "minor race" is a minor race because someone bigger, stronger, and more advanced found them and subjugated them by various means. The Hivers claim to study races from a distance and then perform manipulations to mold them into suitable forms. Is that really any different than the IISS interdicting a world and studying a race to determine how and when that race can be integrated into the Imperium?

Manipulation simply a cherished myth the Hivers tell about themselves, just like the Zhodani claims for their psionic aristocracy, the Aslan claims about honor, the Solomani claims about racial superiority, and so on. Manipulation and the claims associated with it are merely window dressing for the naked power the Hivers, like all major races, employ.


Have fun,
Bill

 

[G. Kashkanun Anderson]

Manipulation simply a cherished myth the Hivers tell about themselves, just like the Zhodani claims for their psionic aristocracy, the Aslan claims about honor, the Solomani claims about racial superiority, and so on. Manipulation and the claims associated with it are merely window dressing for the naked power the Hivers, like all major races, employ.

I absolutely agree, Bill!

Notice that in my earlier post I referred to what Imperial scientists were trying to perfect as a discipline, but what the Hivers were actually doing as an art. Hivers are naturally good at what they do, but far less rational and perfect at it than they realize, for reasons they themselves are unable to fully comprehend.

And my description of the Hiver-Kree war manipulation as a cobbled together kluge (i.e. "quick 'n dirty") was not merely descriptive writing. Clearly the manipulation was much more of a dice roll than the Hivers are willing to admit, even to themselves; there was much too much of a "hey, let's try this on for size" feel to the whole episode for anyone to judge otherwise. For that matter, the fact that they bungled themselves into a war with the K'kree proves that they are not nearly the masters of history that they believe themselves to be.

Of course, I suppose someone could pop up now and claim that, no, even the war itself was part of some larger Hiver plan to put themselves into a position to have to manipulate the K'kree ... but then that's just turning them collectively into The Man With One Red Shoe.

Still, I give the Hivers the benefit of being psychologically, technologically, and evolutionarily better suited to passive-aggressive empire building than Imperial Humans. Then again, I might also add that my seven-year-old niece is psychologically, technologically, and evolutionarily better suited to be a ballerina than I am, too, if you get my drift.

 

[Gruffty]

Psychohistory and Manipulation 101

<.....Hivers quietly out of the shadows.....>

Psychoshistory attempts to predict the future by mathermatically analysing the behaviour of billions of sophonts. It allows governments etc to predict (but only with a *certain* degree of accuracy) how things might pan out historically in the future, and then to plan and/or act upon that prediction. Typically Psychohistory looks at events over tens, hundreds or thousands of years; it's strategic.

Manipulation, on the other hand, can be used to control or cause events in the here and now, tomorrow, next week, next month, next year, next decade, next century.... you get the picture Manipulation is about covering things up, misinformation, misdirection, putting the truth out in the open (where no-one, absolutely no-one, will believe it), getting others to meet your demands either now or in the future, arranging things to suit you, arranging for that war to happen. Manipulation is more tactical, generally, as there may be hundreds (or thousands) of manipulations all happening together (or separately), at the same time, or sequentially, but they're all geared to countering or causing an event predicted by psychohistory.

Manipulation skill is needed to act upon knowledge gained from Psychohistory skill. Psychohistory skill will allow you to get an idea of what might happen; manipulation skill will allow you to act for or against the prediction made using psychohistory skill.

Hivers are good at manipulation because we keep quiet about using it, we are cautious about using it, and have experience of using it (i.e. Hiver-K'kree War). The only large scale attempt at the combined use of psycohistory and manipulation in humaniti's history ended with the Psionics Suppressions.

Nuff said

 

[Gruffty]

The Hivers claim to study races from a distance and then perform manipulations to mold them into suitable forms. Is that really any different than the IISS interdicting a world and studying a race to determine how and when that race can be integrated into the Imperium?

The difference is that we manipulate the Child Races so that they won't attack us in the future, so that they join the HF and contribute to it and so that they are reliable allies. Humaniti does not do this. Look to history, my friend - there has never been a Hiver-upon-Hiver war, yet there have been many, many Humaniti-upon-Humaniti wars (Frontier Wars, Solomani Rim War, the Rebellion.....).

Manipulation simply a cherished myth the Hivers tell about themselves, <snip> Manipulation and the claims associated with it are merely window dressing for the naked power the Hivers, like all major races, employ.

...Or do we?...Are you sure about that?...What evidence do you have to support your theory?... Are you sure you're not just reciting misinformation?

 

[Vargas]

GKA,

A close reading of canon - even before the release of Aliens of the Rim - suggests that the Hivers believe they are manipulators. There is a great difference between what we believe to be true and what is actually true.

Do Hivers attempt to "manipulate" each other? Yes. Do Hivers attempt to "manipulate" the minor races in the Federation? Yes. Do Hivers attempt to "manipulate" other Major Races? Yes. Let me suggest, however, that the differences between what the Hivers do and what every other sophont species does is merely one of semantics.

What is politics? What is diplomacy? What are the myriad of policies dealing with a myriad of things like trade or justice or education? They all are attempts by various means to coax, coerce, or channel the behavior of others. Any sophont species does this, but only the Hivers call it manipulation. Manipulation is simply the Hiver term for politics, diplomacy, and policies.

Compare the following: the Imperium tells a "minor race" "You're a minor race and must live by the rules of our huge, human-dominated polity because you never developed jump drive." and the Hivers tell a "minor race" Your species is pigeonholed as combat fodder, administrators, or traders because we manipulated you to be that way.' However, what's the actual difference between those two statements?

The truth of the matter is that the "minor race" is a minor race because someone bigger, stronger, and more advanced found them and subjugated them by various means. The Hivers claim to study races from a distance and then perform manipulations to mold them into suitable forms. Is that really any different than the IISS interdicting a world and studying a race to determine how and when that race can be integrated into the Imperium?

Manipulation simply a cherished myth the Hivers tell about themselves, just like the Zhodani claims for their psionic aristocracy, the Aslan claims about honor, the Solomani claims about racial superiority, and so on. Manipulation and the claims associated with it are merely window dressing for the naked power the Hivers, like all major races, employ.


Have fun,
Bill

Masterful analysis.

 

[Gruffty]

I can certainly just make it up, but if there is a good set of rules on how it works, how accurate it is, and what sorts of uses it has in the Third Imperium, I'd like to use it. Does anyone know if such a thing exists?

AFAIK there are no rules for using psychohistory in a game. Sorry

 

[Gadrin]

I absolutely agree, Bill!

Notice that in my earlier post I referred to what Imperial scientists were trying to perfect as a discipline, but what the Hivers were actually doing as an art. Hivers are naturally good at what they do, but far less rational and perfect at it than they realize, for reasons they themselves are unable to fully comprehend.

And my description of the Hiver-Kree war manipulation as a cobbled together kluge (i.e. "quick 'n dirty") was not merely descriptive writing. Clearly the manipulation was much more of a dice roll than the Hivers are willing to admit, even to themselves; there was much too much of a "hey, let's try this on for size" feel to the whole episode for anyone to judge otherwise. For that matter, the fact that they bungled themselves into a war with the K'kree proves that they are not nearly the masters of history that they believe themselves to be.

Of course, I suppose someone could pop up now and claim that, no, even the war itself was part of some larger Hiver plan to put themselves into a position to have to manipulate the K'kree ... but then that's just turning them collectively into The Man With One Red Shoe.

Still, I give the Hivers the benefit of being psychologically, technologically, and evolutionarily better suited to passive-aggressive empire building than Imperial Humans. Then again, I might also add that my seven-year-old niece is psychologically, technologically, and evolutionarily better suited to be a ballerina than I am, too, if you get my drift.

Nice post !

I wrestled with some of those thoughts (well not exactly the same as yours but along those ideas) when I was putting together my mind's eye of a Hiver Manipulation.

My own conclusion (so don't throw anything) was that the Hiver's also know inherently that they don't know everything (my take on your Art slant) and that a Manipulation can't conceive of everything. Likewise they also know the sophonts they employ to conduct the manipulation don't know everything either so that contributes further to the artistry of a given situation (meaning: manipulation). I think this would have become evident in the building of their Federation over the centuries. Of course being the keepers and writers of history means...

I think the average Hiver would be able to read between the lines possibly along with the sophonts they employ. As would any ambassador to their Federation -- after centuries of his race knowing and dealing with the Hivers.

Just my 2 cents


>

 

[aramis]

The difference is that we manipulate the Child Races so that they won't attack us in the future, so that they join the HF and contribute to it and so that they are reliable allies. Humaniti does not do this.

Funny enough, there are Humans who are members of the Hive Federation. (AM Hivers says so.)

 

[kafka47]

There is no Prime Radiant in Traveller. Having said that the Imperium employs thousands of people who believe and practice in psychohistory. This they believe through careful social engineering are able to influence events before they happen. The precognition would be a combination of History, Psionics, and Mathematics. The Psionic combinent would be to actually send thoughts or create empathy to otherwise sway small populations. History would be to recognize the patterns in the planetary/galactic history and nudge events in that direction. Mathematics as they believe that human behavoir and systems can be reduced to numbers.

The whole exercise is akin to American government employed economists...they really do not alter the pattern of the economy but to pronounce upon the after effects of economic behaviors. Just because they cures they employ are 98% correct, the real test is practice. However, practice is constantly evolving and changing as the world changes. Therefore, economists can create elabourate models but that is all they are models.

Reminds me of a joke that was popular in the early 1990s.

Mitterand has 1000 health advisors...one of them has AIDS. He does not know which one.

Bush has 1000 security advisors...one of them is a terrorist. He does not know which one.

Yeltsyn has 1000 economists...one is actually good...

so...Stephon 1000 psychohistorians...one of them is good...

So, even if you want to play a Foundation style campaign...it is possible, save the Imperium does not place too much credence in psychohistory any more than it does Realpolitik. It is merely one of the tools and levels of power that obscure power. I agree with Bill's assessment of the Hiver, it is just one of the governing myths that keep the Hivers on top, and Minor Races on the bottom. Those myths can easily and do change with time.

 

[boomslang]

Masterful analysis.

Unless, of course, Bill's exegesis is actually merely a skillful disinformation Manipulation to divert suspicion from our six-tentacled allies and their realpolitik...