Psychohistory Rules?

[Whipsnade]

Manipulation is about covering things up, misinformation, misdirection, putting the truth out in the open (where no-one, absolutely no-one, will believe it), getting others to meet your demands either now or in the future, arranging things to suit you, arranging for that war to happen.

Gruffty,

You left out the most important description of manipulation: Manipulation is taking credit for something that already happened or would have happened anyway without your "help".

This use of "spin" is something that all sophonts do.

Hivers are good at manipulation because we keep quiet about using it...

Bollocks. Hivers are quite open about the fact they continually manipulate other Hivers and other races. They only thing they keep quiet about are the exact manipulations and manipulation attempts that occur. This allows them to take credit where no credit is actually due.

and have experience of using it (i.e. Hiver-K'kree War)...

There are two sides to that story. While the results are not in question, how they arose most certainly is. Did the Hivers manipulate events in order to create the opportunity to end the war? Or did the Hivers manipulate events in order to claim credit for creating the opportunity that ended the war.

A rough analogy would be that of rain and crops. It's one thing to use the rain to grow crops. It's another to claim to create the rain that is then used to grow crops. Hivers do far more of the latter than the former.

The only large scale attempt at the combined use of psycohistory and manipulation in humaniti's history ended with the Psionics Suppressions.

Canonically that is only a supposition. From a strcit political standpoint, it's a no brainer to suppress the use in your polity of the primary sociological tool your enemy uses to control his polity.


Have fun,
Bill

 

[Whipsnade]

Gruffty,

First, this is a meta-game discussion about psychohistory and manipulation. If you want to pretend that you're a Hiver check out the Play-by-post forum.

The difference is that we manipulate the Child Races so that they won't attack us in the future, so that they join the HF and contribute to it and so that they are reliable allies. Humaniti does not do this.

Bollocks. The Imperium never interdicts or otherwise controls minor races for the Imperium's good? The Imperium doesn't have minor races who are contirbuting members?

Here's a heads up from a metagame standpoint and not an "I'm pretending to be an Imperial noble" standpoint: All Major Races do what you claim only the Hivers do and for the same reasons.

Look to history, my friend - there has never been a Hiver-upon-Hiver war, yet there have been many, many Humaniti-upon-Humaniti wars (Frontier Wars, Solomani Rim War, the Rebellion.....).

We've only the Hivers word for that and, while the Hivers seemingly don't engage in widespread organized violence (i.e. war) they most certainly do kill each other as individuals on a regular basis.

...Or do we?...Are you sure about that?...What evidence do you have to support your theory?... Are you sure you're not just reciting misinformation?

Oddly enough, two sourcebooks written on a metagame, rather than an in-game, basis.


Have fun,
Bill

 

[mike wightman]

Doesn't the CT Hiver Alien module treat manipulation as a real skill and a reality of the OTU setting?

I'll have to go read it again...

 

[Gruffty]

this is a meta-game discussion about psychohistory and manipulation.

Fair point.

The Imperium never interdicts or otherwise controls minor races for the Imperium's good?

Never said the 3I didn't.

The Imperium doesn't have minor races who are contributing members?

I never said they don't.

What I actually said was that the member races of the HF haven't turned on the Hivers, whereas there have been internal conflicts within the 3I since its founding. There have not been repeated civil wars in the HF.

All Major Races do what you claim only the Hivers do and for the same reasons.

I don't make this claim - the sourcebooks are actually very, very clear on this aspect of the Hivers:

Manipulation is a uniquely Hiver phenomena

Manipulation is a uniquely Hiver phenomena

Manipulation is the distinctive peculiarity that captures all that is odd about the Hivers. It is the lightning rod for all of the fears and misgivings that non-Hivers have about the Hivers.

[my emphasis in bold] - I happen to agree, as a Traveller Ref/player/fan.

I feel it's more "how" its done, rather than "what" is done. I see manipulation as being very, very subtle, involving many more participants (by this I mean in the game universe - NPCs, other world governments, inerstellar polities, etc) than would be needed to accomplish the same thing using other methods. YMMV.

We've only the Hivers word for that

...and Hiver history, which is in the available sourcebooks

and, while the Hivers seemingly don't engage in widespread organized violence (i.e. war)

Which they don't...

they most certainly do kill each other as individuals on a regular basis.

I've looked through my CT, TNE and GT sourcebooks and can't find a source for your statement about Hivers killing each other anywhere.

Bill: I take it you not a great fan of Hivers?

 

[Gruffty]

Doesn't the CT Hiver Alien module treat manipulation as a real skill and a reality of the OTU setting?

Yup. Hiver characters can gain Manipulation and Psychohistory as skills during CT AM7 CharGen.

 

[Gruffty]

Manipulation is taking credit for something that already happened or would have happened anyway without your "help".

The Hivers keep accurate records of manipulations and the intended outcomes. My view is that where a manipulator says "I did this" and it's blatantly obvious that the event would/could have occurred without Hiver interference, the documents relating to the manipulation could be called into question. I also freely admit that the Hivers don't advertise it when a manipulation fails in any way (i.e. only just falls short of the intended goal(s), or fails dramatically and/or catastrophically) and that the use of "Terminal Manipulations" (a la TNE Hivers) could be widespread but unknown.

This use of "spin" is something that all sophonts do.

I disagree. I do not feel or think that manipulation is the same as "spin". Spin is and can be obvious (Tony Blair was a master of it). Manipulation is not obvious and should not be obvious; hence it's not the same as spin.

Hivers are quite open about the fact they continually manipulate other Hivers and other races. They only thing they keep quiet about are the exact manipulations and manipulation attempts that occur.

I agree and apologise for not making myself and my point clear on this. What you have stated is *exactly* what I meant to say. Except I didn't.

This allows them to take credit where no credit is actually due.

Possibly, but I would refer back to the documentation argument - all manipulations are planned in advance and are documented.

Did the Hivers manipulate events in order to create the opportunity to end the war?

Now, here, I would say that the Hivers spotted a hole and took the opportunity to maximise upon known K'kree weaknesses.

Or did the Hivers manipulate events in order to claim credit for creating the opportunity that ended the war.

No, as I say, I think the Hivers were lucky in this instance and capitalised on it. Basically the Hivers had to do something to end the war - they were up against it, big time, and (although it's not hinted at or mentioned in canon books) I suspect if they hadn't tried the manipulations or the manipulations had failed, the HF would have ceased to exist and the K'kree would have beaten the Hivers.

Restricted: The general information is not completely correct. The reason largescale psychohistory experiments are no longer conducted is due to the unpredictable results achieved by the only sizable experiment to date, conducted as a part of the psionics suppressions (q.v.). The unforeseen results of this experiment were so far-reaching that Imperial scientists concluded that their knowledge of the principles involved was woefully inadequate, and that further study was required. Imperial research into psychohistory is undertaken at a small number of research stations, and is carried out under the strictest of controls.

[Bold italics my emphasis]I would agree that the general populace of the 3I would not have known about the use of manipulation and psychohistory; but we, as Refs/players, have access to that information (because we're not actually in the OTU, we're having a meta-game discussion ).

 

[Vile]

Ok, I'm going to have to get out the CD-ROM before this thread implodes in IMTU suppositions.

The only large scale attempt at the combined use of psycohistory and manipulation in humaniti's history ended with the Psionics Suppressions.

Canonically that is only a supposition.

The reason largescale psychohistory experiments are no longer conducted is due to the unpredictable results achieved by the only sizable experiment to date, conducted as a part of the psionics suppressions (q.v.). The unforeseen results of this experiment were so far-reaching that Imperial scientists concluded that their knowledge of the principles involved was woefully inadequate, and that further study was required. Imperial research into psychohistory is undertaken at a small number of research stations, and is carried out under the strictest of controls.

Supposition? Seems pretty clear-cut to me.

Manipulation is taking credit for something that already happened or would have happened anyway without your "help".

That supposition is not supported by the rules:

The claim of credit is the final step in a successful manipulation. The manipulator must reveal the manipulation and present its evidence of responsibility and its prediction of the consequences. Upon evaluation, the event is then acknowledged as a manipulation (or not) and proper records are made.

Manipulation, unlike psychohistory, is a skill which can be used in-game and is clearly not related to spin:

Manipulation: The individual is trained or experienced in the practice of altering the behavior of social groups. Manipulation creates results based on small stimuli; a single act of violence, timed correctly and undertaken with the proper combinations of emotions and opinions already existent, can cause a shift in a culture's opinions towards aggression and conflict.

There are two sides to that story. While the results are not in question, how they arose most certainly is. Did the Hivers manipulate events in order to create the opportunity to end the war? Or did the Hivers manipulate events in order to claim credit for creating the opportunity that ended the war.

Of the two sides of that story, I prefer to accept the one told by the rules:

Selecting several worlds within Kilong sector deep in the K'kree's Two Thousand Worlds, major secret expeditions were dispatched to work a variety of manipulations on native K'kree populations. Over a period of years (-201 8 to -201 31, the expeditions
were successful in changing altering K'kree culture from its consistent and static mold, introducing such aberrations as meat sauces for foods and acceptance of isolation as a recreation.

In 2013, the Hivers succeeded in drawing the K'kree to the negotiating table by hinting that they were ready to surrender. During the discussions, the Federation horrified K'kree negotiators by demonstrating to them the success of their expeditions, and revealing plans to radically alter the K'kree social
order if the war were to continue. Several months of serious negotiation (and frantic checking by the K'kree) finally resulted in an armistice which returned the occupied worlds to the Hivers and established a secure border which remains stable to this day.

To sum up, no, there are no rules for using psychohistory in-game, because it involves far to large a demographic and timescale. It is being further researched at a small number of research stations under strict controls, so I doubt there would be many psychohistorian characters running about the place rolling 2d6.

As for manipulation, if all of the ideas expressed above were prefaced with "IMTU", fine. However, in the OTU manipulation is clearly defined and there is no hint that it is merely media-manipulation.


EDIT: Damn, the Hiver beat me to it. :rofl:

 

[Maitete]

Yup. Hiver characters can gain Manipulation and Psychohistory as skills during CT AM7 CharGen.

Actually, as fascinating as the discussion is, this was the most helpful post I could have found. Having caught the scent, I dug up AM7 and found Manipulation as a skill, with a +1 DM applied to the Reaction Table for every 2 levels of skill. Yay for concreteness!

It may be silly, but I like at least a somewhat firm foundation from which to extrapolate things my NPCs do, and this provides it. Imagine now:

Elarin Rex Vedos, scientist and psychohistorian, encounters the crew of the Bonaventure free trader as a patron. He requests the simple delivery of a bouquet of flowers to a minor duke in the Pysadi system of Aramis subsector. Our heroes don't know that contains a small vial of fermented Pysadian fruit, rendered into a superb liquor, and that its receiver is influential in Pysadi politics. He tastes the liquor, questions the current ban on alcohol, and lobbies successfully for its production (reaction roll 10). This has far reaching effects which can only be witnessed after months or years of play, but which will eventually dawn on the players as being perpetrated by them unwittingly.

I like this idea. Thank you all for the discussion and assistance!

 

[Gruffty]

Yup. Hiver characters can gain Manipulation and Psychohistory as skills during CT AM7 CharGen.

Actually, as fascinating as the discussion is, this was the most helpful post I could have found. Having caught the scent, I dug up AM7 and found Manipulation as a skill, with a +1 DM applied to the Reaction Table for every 2 levels of skill. Yay for concreteness!

:rofl:Glad to have been able to help! :rofl:

 

[Doyle Hunt]

If you want rules for using psychohistory more-or-less in real time, allow me to recommend the "Toxic Memes" supplement for the Transhuman Space® game. The section on memetic engineering is similar to how I would expect psychohistory to work. Memetic engineering is not my favorite part of the Transhuman Space game, and so I haven't made a concerted effort to assimilate the rules, or to port them into classic Traveller® (or even GURPS Traveller, for that matter). Still, I don't know where you'll find anything more relevant in terms of psychohistory rules, unless it's a political science course at Yale.

 

[Whipsnade]

I don't make this claim - the sourcebooks are actually very, very clear on this aspect of9snip of other good stuff)

Gruffty,

I see you've got the exact quotes from CT and MT sources, but not TNE. Why didn't you also quote from Aliens of the Rim?

AoR presents a more nuanced and mature view of the Hivers and their claims. A view in which manipulation does take place, a view in which the Hivers' claims about manipulation is true up to a point.

AoR explicitly states that Hivers regularly "cook the books" in order to take credit for manipulations after the fact. One passage points to the Hivers' advanced cybernetic technology as an outgrowth from their need to keep "two sets of books" in order to take claim for events after the fact.

AoR also explicitly states that Hivers routinely murder one another or cause others to commit murder. One passage talks about how you can be "passive/agressive" and still "evil".

Bill: I take it you not a great fan of Hivers?

Not exactly. I happen to enjoy the Hivers, but I'm not a fan of the grammar school version of the Hivers presented in CT and MT. The TNE version is far more realistic and far more fun.

The Hivers are not the non-violent paragons they present themselves to be; always artful manipulators coaxing others into choices for the greater good. Minor races in the Federation are "channeled" and "chopped" into specific functions; you don't see minor races in the other Major Race empires explicitly limited to certain roles in society "for their own good".

As for communal violence within the Federation, widespread rebellions may be rare (and we've only the Hivers' word that they are nonexistent) but widespread communal violence is rare among the Hivers too. The Hivers don't war among themselves, they murder instead, so their "wogs" rarely war either. We should note that this lack of war doesn't mean that killing on a widescale doesn't take place.

Traveller has always been about wheels within wheels. Look at the Zhodani for instance; originally "mind-rapers" with an all-present "thought police", then the "happiest" and "most well adjusted" human polity, and finally a mixture of those two extremes. The Aslan went through a similar change with the revelation of the Pathfinder Incident. The Hivers recieved the same "nuance-enhancement" treatment with the release of AoR and, I firmly believe, they're better for it.

One final note: AM:7 does contain a Manipulation skill, but does AM:7 tell you how to use it?


Have fun,
Bill

 

[aramis]

AoR also claims there is no reason to make the aliens anything more than men in suit, so no effort that direction should be made.

In short, AoR discredits itself. (To my mind, it also shows Dave N. was exactly the wrong man to put in charge of Traveller, but that's a whole 'nother argument.)

 

[Whipsnade]

AoR also claims there is no reason to make the aliens anything more than men in suit, so no effort that direction should be made.

Aramis,

Not quite. AoR claims that any attempt to model, and more importantly, play an alien species eventually becomes little more than "men in suits". That's a completely realistic assessment; the "zipper" always shows up eventually.

In short, AoR discredits itself. (To my mind, it also shows Dave N. was exactly the wrong man to put in charge of Traveller, but that's a whole 'nother argument.)

Whether Dave was the right man or not is moot. However, I strongly believe that he showed courage in pointing out the fact that we need to keep in mind that any discussion of aliens is make believe. And because it is only "make believe", we need to show care that we don't take things too far.

YMMV.


Have fun,
Bill

 

[Vile]

AoR is also not CT, and this is the CT section of the boards. I would also like to take Gruffty to task for using MT references while I'm still waiting for the MT CD-ROM to be cleaned up so I can get myself a copy and know what he's talking about.

I don't see any evidence that Hivers are in any way portrayed as good or bad guys in CT. We are simply given the facts about their behaviour from a "referee's eye view" and left to make up our own minds about the morality of it.

What was the question again?

 

[GypsyComet]

A character with background in Psychohistory is going to have a mixture of History, Psychology, Sociology, Political Geography, and Statistics.

Asimovian Psychohistory assumed (incorrectly) that individuals were below the resolution of measurable effect. It was why the Foundation got so badly burned by the Mule. In general, however, individuals could operate on what predictive Psychohistorical analysis told them and disappear into the statistical noise.

With the established nature of Psychohistory in the OTU, a character with Psychohistorical leanings is best cast as either a foolishly ivory tower academician or a hopeless schemer. In both cases, the "effects of individuals" are ignored or forgotten, so the academic thinks he can apply his predictions to individuals (hilarity ensues) while the schemer thinks he can alter major trends through one crackpot scheme after another (think Pinky & The Brain).

 

[Gruffty]

I see you've got the exact quotes from CT

Yup...

and MT sources,

Huh? MT? There was never an MT Hiver aliens sourcebook...

but not TNE. Why didn't you also quote from Aliens of the Rim?

I did, Bill. Look again mate. You'll see I quoted CT, TNE and GT - all 3 available sources on the Hivers.

AoR presents a more nuanced and mature view of the Hivers and their claims. A view in which manipulation does take place, a view in which the Hivers' claims about manipulation is true up to a point.

OK, let me be clear where I'm coming from here: I'm not a serious/real fan of the TNE mileu, and this is the CT section of CotI .

I consider GT AR3 to be the natural successor to CT AM7, not TNE AoR. Whilst I agree with Dave Nielsen's view that we (i.e. Refs/players) can never truly roleplay an alien (his "humans in rubber suits" comment), I also think there's a lot (to use your term, Bill) of bollocks written in AoR; I also think there's some very good stuff written in TNE AoR, as well (in fact, my own view is that no one version of Traveller is better than any other - they all have flaws and good points). Yes, I agree that the GT AR3 Hivers are depicted as being very much closer to their TNE AoR cousins, and that GT AR3 could be considered to be a "watering down" of the content of TNE AoR; however, my view of the Hivers is closer to CT - probably somewhere in between CT AM7 and GT AR3.

AM:7 does contain a Manipulation skill, but does AM:7 tell you how to use it?

Yup:

Manipulation: The individual is trained or experienced in the practice of altering the behavior of social groups.

Manipulation creates results based on small stimuli; a single act of violence, timed correctly and undertaken with the proper combinations of emotions and opinions already existent, can cause a shift in a culture's opinions towards aggression and conflict. This is but one example, but it is a commonly used one in a cultural manipulation of the Hive Federation.

Referee: In any situation where manipulation is to be undertaken, it is up to the referee to establish the limited goals to be pursued for a specific manipulation (an assassination, the establishment of a specific new religious or political movement, etc.); when the goal is achieved roll on the Reaction Table to see the overall reaction of the populace as a whole to the stimulus applied. A DM + 1 is applied for every 2 levels of skill applied by the character in charge of the operation. An unfavorable reaction (5-1 indicates that the stimulus applied was incorrect, resulting in a backfire effect. A 6-8 result is neutral; no changes takes place. A result of 9+ indicates an outcome in accordance with desired effects. Negative modifiers should be applied according to the nature of the change desired, and based upon the size of the population (smaller populations are harder to manipulate). Actual outcomes may take months, years, decades, even centuries to manifest themselves, but a skilled manipulator can determine probable effects almost immediately, to allow supportive or corrective actions to be taken as needed. When a Hiver manipulator wants to perform a manipulation, a conference between the referee and the player should be held to discuss, plan, and determine the possible effects of, the manipulation.

 

[Gruffty]

I would also like to take Gruffty to task for using MT references

... go look at the post again, Vile

 

[Gruffty]

AoR also explicitly states that Hivers routinely murder one another or cause others to commit murder. One passage talks about how you can be "passive/agressive" and still "evil".

OK, I found the relevant sections in TNE AoR. For the sake of clarity: the only Hiver sourcebook that includes sections on Hivers killing each other is TNE AoR. CT AM7 and GT AR3 have no such sections.

The Hivers recieved the same "nuance-enhancement" treatment with the release of AoR and, I firmly believe, they're better for it.

Aye, and there's the rub. I firmly believe that, on the whole, the Hivers in TNE AoR are not better for the "nuance-enhancement".

 

[Gruffty]

Btw...

Psychohistory Rules?

Yeah man, it rocks!

 

[Vile]

... go look at the post again, Vile

Erm ... right ... ok, let me rephrase that. I would like to take you to task for using GT and TNE references in a CT thread when I have no intention of getting either of those (doubtlessly fine) rule sets. :devil: