Boy do I feel dumb! I come in from a link to a post half-way through a thread and comment on it, and not think to look if there is more to read, and the next day I notice my post sticks out like a sore thumb!
Well, now that I've caught up on the thread, I have been thinking about this subject a bit since I started this whole thing a bit back. Before I screw up what I want to say, let me show you the things I have been thinking about:
Graphical operating system that runs on a C64 (20 yo computer): fits into 64K of ram. Lots of disk access to use it; you really needed two drives to use GEOS effectively, and that's why I never used it.
Modern graphical operating system: Windows XP REQUIRES 64M of ram; about 1000 times as much, and that's without running anything else. Really, you need about 256M AND 1000 times as much storage space as GEOS (if not more).
C64 used a 1 MHz CPU, most people have at least a 1 GHz CPU now.
My SID (music) collection was quite extensive, but it fit on a few ~150K floppies. A good song was about 5K. My MP3 collection is considerably larger, but a typical 128kb file takes up about 5M. Some people can't stand anything less than 256kb, so double that for them.
Pictures on the C64 were 320x200x1, or 8kB (well, that's really not accurate, but its video display had many modes, and that was the most memory-intensive one). A modern desktop takes up 1600x1200x32, or 7.5MB (well, MINE does), and much larger pics are not terribly rare like they were back then. Remember also that the C64 was a few years ahead of its time in comparison to the "PC" of the day.
Ok, enough of the examples.
While computer power has improved by 3 magnitudes, so have the demands placed upon them to do the same things they used to do. While it's true that my modern 1GHz machine could calculate pi to the millionth digit a lot faster than my C64 (indeed, I would have to get a memory expansion hack to get the 64 to calculate that many digits), the modern computer is asked to do a lot of other stuff.
My current music collection sounds better now than it did 20 years ago. My pictures are much prettier too. Overall, I have gained quality, but it still takes a while to boot (assuming this is a C64 using GEOS; a plain C64 boots in under 1 second), I can still store about the same NUMBER of songs and pictures in equivalent space.
So the MEASURABLE gains are what we should be paying attention to.
First, newer computers can do some things that older ones can't. TL border right there. My C64 cannot host a website (and yes, I've heard of the guy who did it anyway). My current computer cannot render cartoon-level movies in realtime. A computer 20 years from now SHOULD be able to render fairly realistic scenes in realtime. Three eras of about 20 years apiece, three TLs, right on schedule.
Second, the overall gain is not NEARLY what Moore's Law says. What have I gained in the last 20 years? My FPS games are more detailed, my pics and music are more detailed, I still don't have the ability to do cheap or fast backups because I have too much stuff, memory is still volitile... So we can say QUALITY can also define TL borders.
And finally, what real gain is there to be made from having ultra-precise computer TL rules anyway? The CP multipliers from the TNE sequence were used to reduce crew needed. I still think they are a bit conservative, but not so much as I used to. My own experience in the Navy shows that you will never man a battleship with just computer brains. Who's going to polish the deck when the brass comes aboard? Who's going to do the officers' laundry? It's hard to look down your nose at a computer, or to call a non-working computer 'stupid' in front of a repair droid.
At any rate, I no longer think that the Traveller computer problem is as serious as I first thought.
TL is about doing NEW things. Calculating pi a second faster is nothing, going from vector graphics to realistic holoprojections IS something.