"Sod you lot, we're out of here" as a motiviation to colonization?

[jcrocker]

Should there be more exclaves/colonies settled by disgruntled groups from Terra? People who see themselves as being persecuted or underappreciated and want to leave decadent Terra/land of persecution and set up life among the stars so everyone will leave them alone, or as a shining beacon of how God's true people should live, or where their quality "x" will be apprecaited?

As far as numbers go, for example a Thorez costs about MLv4 new, and a Hudson is about MLv 5. Used ones should cost less. But even so, a thousand-people group could save a few hundred a year for a few years to buy one.

Or, they could save and hire a ship to transport them to their new home. Colonies aren't cheap, but if "the community" saves for a decade or two and sells most of their Terran stuff it should be feasible.

Or would these exclaves have been absorbed by other communities over the years? Are there the remnants of a dozen such exclaves on colonies, you just need to know where to look?

 

[Colin]

Yes. Ellis, for instance, is full of such groups. These communities are typically too small to make much of a demographic impact on their respective areas, but they are all over the place. Like Mennonite, Dukhubor and Hutterite communities in western Canada.

 

[Jame]

Hmmm... Here's a question: Would there be governments saying "sod you lot here's a ship go anywhere you want but don't come back here?"

 

[ben51]

I doubt that America would force a population to move given its past experiance with Native Americans, racist New America and even the Tantalum Revolt, but there are almost certainly a multitute of private organizations set up just to convince, assist or trick people into moving off world. I could see these groups targeting specific populations.

Off course other nations may not be so nice and there could be enclaves of Rhineland Germans, Protestant Irish, displaced Panamanians and unwanted Afrikaaners dotting any number of colony worlds.

I wonder if American colonies would be the destination of choice for many of these groups or has America lost her charm as the destination of choice for the "huddle masses yearning to breath free"?

Benjamin

 

[Anders]

I would such communities to be everywhere across the colonies, but most only last one or two generations (given the real experiences of utopian communes). In the end what remains is a village with a slightly odd name, some quirky oldsters and a few charming local traditions and crafts.

Actually, one can borrow some amazing stories and ideas from the above lists. Socialist low-tech arcologies for Beta Canum, architectural experiments, sects eagerly awaiting the resurrection of members, secret underground temples, the real first Scandinavian colony somewhere in the forests of Adlerhorst, people following economical, ecological, surveillance, gender or body modification tenets. As well as back-to-the-land movements and outright scams.

I'm pretty convinced that there are Amish among the stars these days. As well as a lot of communist communes in asteroid belts (a la Ken MacLeod) and a bunch of libertarians trying to build the real Galt's Gulch somewhere.

 

[Colin]

Most nations don't use force to get people to emigrate, but rather a combination of incentives and social pressure. Rather than try to pound square pegs into round holes, they drive to get the squares to move elsewhere, and make their own holes. This keeps them out of trouble but available just in case there is trouble.

Some conspiracy theorists believe that the lack of new colonies over the past 50 years is due more to the inability of Core governments to control colonies that are any further out, than to a lack of suitable prospects.

 

[Colin]

Ellis is almost like a zoo for unusual social groups, especially ones that have farming/pioneering as part of their core ethos.

 

[ElHombre]

Some conspiracy theorists believe that the lack of new colonies over the past 50 years is due more to the inability of Core governments to control colonies that are any further out, than to a lack of suitable prospects.

One possibility is that the Core nations have run out of people who want to move. i.e.: the hardcore groups have already left. Historically, one of the other prime motivations for moving is economic.

Perhaps Earth needs a Good 'Ol Fashioned economic meltdown. ;-)

 

[Anders]

I doubt the Core will run out of misfits. Going to the stars is pretty expensive, and new misfits are generated every generation (or societal shift, take your pick). Hence only a fraction of the people who would like to emigrate actually do it.

One interesting category is the people who leave after a shift in government. There might be a lot of Mexican emigrants after the overthrow of the old regime - some migrating outwards because they do not want certain things in their past to come to light, others because they think the new Mexican democracy is going to be a disaster.

"Your mission is to find this man, sgt. Juan Ortega Ortiz. He was responsible for ordering the La Brea massacre and we think he is hiding under an assumed identity on Kwantung or Montana. We have indications that he was helped emigrate by groups in INAP friendly to the former government; it is not unlikely that he can lead us to where some of the bigger fishes are hiding. Conversely, in the colonies these people may hold a lot of local power - keep the nature of your mission secret, and watch out!"

 

[epicenter00]

Alternatively, these people may not actually be fleeing any kind of justice, at least as far as the government is concerned. Traditionally, colonies are also places to exile people without actually imprisoning them, especially wealthy, politically powerful, or popular men and women where imprisoning them or executing them would prove troublesome or they have allies still - maybe not enough to stay in power, but allies enough to shield them.

For instance, if it was General or Councilman Juan Oritz instead Sergeant, it might be a case where the man is staunchly against Mexican reforms and there's that massacre thing which makes him unpopular. Unfortunately, what if the man is very popular with certain powerful parts of Mexican military - parts that if not able to topple the government in a coup, could cause endless misery to the new regime. Or he's wealthy and very popular with a variety of landholding industrialist groups as well as the people in his very conservative home state or city where he's lionized like Stalin is in Russia to this day - "Yes, he what he did was harsh, but it was necessary and he was only one willing to do it."

In such a case, no matter how unpleasant the prospect might be to university students, human rights groups, and so on, the new government might be forced to play ball with the guy. Letting the guy off easy might be part of a backroom deal forged by the "National Reconciliation Council." So the man gets a few hundred square kilometers of prime ranching land on some Mexican colony somewhere and lives like a prince there or is given a province or state to govern as a sort of consolation prize. In return, he agrees that he'll stop involving himself in national politics and not do anything to attract attention to himself.

Of course, hard-core "Nazi-Hunter" types might refuse to play ball with such an agreement and pay mercenaries (player characters) large fees to bring the guy back to Mexico (or whatever the equivalent of the Hague is in 2320) to face trial for his human rights abuses.

 

[BMonnery]

It's the cost to orbit that really matters. The lift and drop will cost an average man several years wages, and more than a lifetimes worth of disposible income. (In todays terms the lift and the drop is ca 250,000 USD by value*, a bargain, less than a tenth of what it costs today.), using a starship as carriage will double this. Buying a small starship will absorb a large chunk of a billion dollars worth.

Getting to the colonies almost certainly entails selling yourself into indentured labour (unless someone is subsidising), unless you have a very large (ca 1 million modern USD) windfall.

* Despite the livre = dollar/3 value, wages are roughly 10% of this. Thus when comparing values to modern values, 1 livre is ca 50-60 USD. Yes, people are a lot poorer, resources much more scarce etc.

 

[rfmcdpei]

One possibility is that the Core nations have run out of people who want to move. i.e.: the hardcore groups have already left. Historically, one of the other prime motivations for moving is economic.

Perhaps Earth needs a Good 'Ol Fashioned economic meltdown. ;-)

Isn't that the point of the Deathwatch Program? A flood of migrants fleeing the Core would certainly do ... interesting things. ;-)

 

[jcrocker]

It's the cost to orbit that really matters. The lift and drop will cost an average man several years wages, and more than a lifetimes worth of disposible income. (In todays terms the lift and the drop is ca 250,000 USD by value*, a bargain, less than a tenth of what it costs today.), using a starship as carriage will double this. Buying a small starship will absorb a large chunk of a billion dollars worth.

Getting to the colonies almost certainly entails selling yourself into indentured labour (unless someone is subsidising), unless you have a very large (ca 1 million modern USD) windfall.

* Despite the livre = dollar/3 value, wages are roughly 10% of this. Thus when comparing values to modern values, 1 livre is ca 50-60 USD. Yes, people are a lot poorer, resources much more scarce etc.

What values are you using?

Ships of the French Arm lists civillian ships at 4 or 5 million livres, as I cited previously.

I'm not interested in contemporary equivalancies, just if its reasonable for a group of civilians in 2300 or 2320 to pool resources and emigrate as a group. It might take a decade or three of saving/paying off loans, but it seems possible.

 

[BMonnery]

What values are you using?

Ships of the French Arm lists civillian ships at 4 or 5 million livres, as I cited previously.

I'm not interested in contemporary equivalancies, just if its reasonable for a group of civilians in 2300 or 2320 to pool resources and emigrate as a group. It might take a decade or three of saving/paying off loans, but it seems possible.

MLv5 = 2,500 man-years of pay (or 50,000 man-years of disposable pay for a labourer/worker)

In todays money the baseline purchase alone is the same as a Boeing 747. How many civilians would it take today to pool money and buy a 747 to fly somewhere?

Of course, they won't. It's much cheaper to buy a flight on an existing commercial airliner, and similarly at ca Lv100 per man-ly, it's much cheaper to get a berth on someone else's ship.

Also, the cost to orbit is very considerable.

 

[jcrocker]

Well, at least you've dropped the "large chunk of a billion dollars worth".

If there are ten thousand members of a disaffected church, it would take a few decades for them to buy their own ship and start settling elsewhere.

If they just want to buy passage or charter a ship, you're right, it would be much cheaper. But what I was implying in my original post is, if a group of people could reasonably come together and finance the most expensive option, then anything cheaper is that much easier. I was not meaning to imply that they all bought ships and headed out.

Yes, interface costs have to be factored in, but if there is stutterwarp availability, landers shouldn't be a problem at the far end. From Terra they can just ride the beanstalk up. Relatively speaking, that's cheap like borscht.

 

[Peter Schutze]

>Ships of the French Arm lists civillian ships at 4 or 5 million livres

Hmmm .... 5Mlv isnt that hard to collect

>it would take a few decades for them to buy their own ship and start settling elsewhere

Only if you are assuming the relatively poor are members of your group.

Emigrants are probably going to liquidate all their property and assets on Earth so I can easily see 50-60 mid aged (35-45 years old) families collecting that 5Mlv with slack for incidentals and homesteading gear. Most families I know with teenage kids could raise 250K. Unfortunately with only a 5Mlv ship its probably going to be many trips of a couple of families at a time though.

A bit of government assistance (even just not collecting the taxes on the asset disposal) and there goes another group of say 250 people (since we are only trying to raise 5Mlv).

And what happens to the ship when the group finish their move ? I'd picture organisations leasing ships out for the purpose rather than forcing people to buy a ship for whats basically a one-way trip.

 

[Anders]

Beanstalks drastically reduce the price to orbit, and hence make the population below more moveable. It is cheaper to go from Earth to colony world X than the reverse, so there will be a net flow of people outwards. Now when Tirane has got its beanstalk too (and the Earth beanstalks are competing) the flow outwards is likely to increase.

This may be true for BC too. At first it got a strong inflow of colonists thanks to the beanstalk but after the war they can also leave cheaply. So another reason BC is not recovering as it should is that many key people have decided to go elsewhere. (In my setting also a very stupid anti-refugee policy contributes.)

Is it possible to use dead gliders to land people? If not some other kind of cheap disposable landing craft may make sense to further reduce colonisation costs. I can imagine even something similar to Soyuz capsules with parachutes for real budget landing - plus the capsules can immediately be converted into housing/storage/raw materials.

I think we tend to overestimate costs because we are thinking in terms of building something to current standards - the colonial settlement will start out cheap and prefab, transports will be by bulk discount. Looking at a typical case, we have 250 colonists with some economic support from 4000 others. That can go a long way even without government support, but given the pro-colonial position most governments seem to have we should expect a lot of extra subsidies.

"The Lintonians were typical of our neighbours. Some kind of offshoot of an offshoot from the baptists, led by a preacher with decidedly odd ideas about physics and that Jesus disapproved of everything French. When he got it into his head that only the far colonies were going to be spared from the imminent Kafer/Gog & Magog apocalypse and the implosion of all G-type stars, the church began to plan on how to save the faithful. They bought a bunch of allotments north of Finder's Ridge, studied up on xeritechnology enough to convince the authorities to put them in a Essential Personell Class higher and then sent the first 100 to found their New Jerusalem. When they found out that it would have to be called New Jerusalem 56 they decided on Bright Hope instead. Bright Hope was just across the border from St. Ebbe and quite close to Statler, so the villages formed a townlet. Over the next few years the Lintonians got more people over, especially kids. They were not bad neighbours, although they tended to sniff at their papist neighbours a lot and really hated our 'sinful croissants'.

The trouble began when the sheriff began to figure out that a lot of the kids were not the kids of their 'parents' in the colony but had to be sent by their real parents 'to safety'. He couldn't do much about it except start a slow bureaucratic process to look into the practice, but it definitely didn't win him any favors among the Lintonians.

Things got worse when a bunch of teenagers decided they had enough of their parents' (foster and real) idiocy and left. They went to the sheriff who happily helped them get emancipated in court. The Lintonians were incensed and complained loudly and sulphurously - they were clearly afraid that if this decision stood the Core congregation would not send more people and money. Maybe they were right about that, but now they managed to annoy the government. Some bureaucrat decided that the church didn't merit further settlement subsidies. If they wanted to colonize they better pay for it entirely themselves. As you can guess, that decision filled them with holy rage."​

 

[BMonnery]

Well, at least you've dropped the "large chunk of a billion dollars worth".

If there are ten thousand members of a disaffected church, it would take a few decades for them to buy their own ship and start settling elsewhere.

If they just want to buy passage or charter a ship, you're right, it would be much cheaper. But what I was implying in my original post is, if a group of people could reasonably come together and finance the most expensive option, then anything cheaper is that much easier. I was not meaning to imply that they all bought ships and headed out.

Yes, interface costs have to be factored in, but if there is stutterwarp availability, landers shouldn't be a problem at the far end. From Terra they can just ride the beanstalk up. Relatively speaking, that's cheap like borscht.

The Beanstalk is limited capacity, and can nowhere near handle general traffic. 3 Tracks on each Beanstalk, 18 passengers per passenger car. Launches are one every couple of hours, so a capacity of maybe 600 people a day, assuming they're all passenger cars (most are cargo cars). This means access to the Beanstalk isn't going to be open market, it's a French government interface facility, and it will move French (or ESA) government people, mainly people for Gateway you'd assume. However, the bulk of carriage is going to be materials.

A freelancer wanting to get to orbit will be riding a spaceplane.

 

[BMonnery]

>Ships of the French Arm lists civillian ships at 4 or 5 million livres

Hmmm .... 5Mlv isnt that hard to collect

>it would take a few decades for them to buy their own ship and start settling elsewhere

Only if you are assuming the relatively poor are members of your group.

Emigrants are probably going to liquidate all their property and assets on Earth so I can easily see 50-60 mid aged (35-45 years old) families collecting that 5Mlv with slack for incidentals and homesteading gear. Most families I know with teenage kids could raise 250K. Unfortunately with only a 5Mlv ship its probably going to be many trips of a couple of families at a time though.

A bit of government assistance (even just not collecting the taxes on the asset disposal) and there goes another group of say 250 people (since we are only trying to raise 5Mlv).

And what happens to the ship when the group finish their move ? I'd picture organisations leasing ships out for the purpose rather than forcing people to buy a ship for whats basically a one-way trip.

250,000 dollars is about Lv5,000 by value.

Movement to the frontier is a mainly government sponsored affair. Why would anyone want to buy a starship (if they could), it's expensive, and expensive to run. They'd be much better off buying passage on an existing ship (or letting the government pay for them on a colonial transport). They can get a person and equipment to a frontier world with change out of a million USD equivalents.

 

[jcrocker]

The Beanstalk is limited capacity, and can nowhere near handle general traffic. 3 Tracks on each Beanstalk, 18 passengers per passenger car. Launches are one every couple of hours, so a capacity of maybe 600 people a day, assuming they're all passenger cars (most are cargo cars). This means access to the Beanstalk isn't going to be open market, it's a French government interface facility, and it will move French (or ESA) government people, mainly people for Gateway you'd assume. However, the bulk of carriage is going to be materials.

A freelancer wanting to get to orbit will be riding a spaceplane.

I'd have to take a look for hard data about the Libreville beanstalk, but let's take a look at the numbers you gave.

"Maybe 600 people per day" at 18 passengers per car is 33 1/3 cars per day. At the building where I work, the trains going by make the floor shake - you can look out and count the cars. After the first couple trains the novelty wears off, but when I did count I could get up to 60 or 70 cars before the train would be moving too fast, and I'd start to get motion sick. There are at least a dozen trains a day that go past the window at the end of the cubicle farm. But some trains are shorter, so let's say an average length of 40 or 50 cars.

Multiplied by 12, that gives between 480 and 500 cars per work day go past my window. [I'm not here 24-7, thank God, so that's at best about a third of what there could be.] So that could be up to 1500 cars that go past in any 24 hour period. Probably less, but that's a good upper limit.

Granted, I'm in Winnipeg, so all east/west rail traffic goes through or near the city - but the tracks we're beside aren't the main ones. So there are other trains I don't see. And that does not include the major arteries in other parts of the nation that don't pass through here - the Great Lakes region, for example. And there's another rail company that has lines across town.

I have a very, very, very difficult time believing that a very very very small fraction of the contemporary Canadian economy outperforms the Beating Heart of 2300 French Empire Interstellar Commerce.

I would expect there to be thousands of cars per day, not 33 1/3!! Where do you get this insanely low number?

Edit: I almost forgot, North America has an incredible over-reliance on long-distance trucks [that I expect to change if oil prices keep climbing but that's another thread.] This is not the case in Europe, and since you can't drive a truck up the beanstalk, I would expect an even greater number of rail cars on the space elevator.