I'm affraid your reasoning fails in several places:
A size J spinal mount rolled 9 extra damage rolls, minus enemy Armor. I tended to design my 200,000 dTon battleships with as much Armor as I could, hopefully reaching as much as 15 points, but 9 or more would be a foregone conclusion. That reduces extra damage rolls to 0.
Already answered By Mike Wingman. Mesons are unaffected by armor, so your J rated MG still rolls 10 times* in Interior Explosion table, so shattering your fuel tanks (and so crippling your starship) quite often (you need a 5 id 2d6, so 1 in 9 will do that result).
The only true defense from MG (aside from agility and meson screens) comes from the Black Globe, but it so affects your own ship that its usefulness is in doubt.
* The rules say
... inflict an extra damage roll (on each appropiatate table) for each letter by which their size exceeds 9 (emphasis is mine), so a J rated MG makes 9
extra damage rolls, if you add the basic one, it inflicts 10 damage rolls.
A size S starship (200,000-299,999 dTons) mounting a size T meson spinal mount rolls 18 extra damage rolls, minus enemy armor. I doubt a size K starship (10,000-19,999 dTons) could mount 18 points of Armor (requiring 19% of volume at TL-14/15), so that size T spinal mount is going to be ripping up the size K starship.
You may not armor your ship by more than your TL, so, unless unsing planetoid or buffered planetoid configuration, you cannot reach armor 18 (unless your ship is TL 18+).
The simple part is, you can build lots of size K starships for one size S starship, and that makes up any individual size K ship losing to an individual size S ship. This means that building lots of smaller starships with smaller meson spinal mounts could be more effective than building large starships. Rolling higher than a 9 on 2d6 to penetrate the rating 9 meson screen is not that easy, so it will require many more size K starships to be certain. (In T20's starship construction and combat systems, the power of the meson spinal mount means that small starships with small meson spinal mounts absolutely rule the battlefield.)
Due to the lethality of the MG, the first one to hit and penetrate the enemy ship will probably cripple it, regardless the relative sizes.
In my personal opinion, CT:HG 2e starship combat leaves a great deal to be desired. To make large starships as effective as they are "meant" to be would require tweaking the rules for spinal mounts and damage.
As implied in all I said before, agreed on this.
And also fails (IMHO) in that most of ships crippled are so for loss of fuel, computer or PP, but very few of them are actually destroyed (I talked about that on other threads).
Not a bad idea, but futile if the criticals usually take out a ship in the first few shots.
In big ships battle, more ships are taken out for Fuel Tanks Shattered hits in interior explosion tables than by criticals, but they are usually taken out in the first few shoots as you say.