You sure about that?
Program the missiles for multiple discrete burns at different times, in between inertial movement only, so as to "hide" the origin launch point.
After all, if acceleration IS NOT CONSTANT ... that makes the task of backtracking the course of an incoming object A LOT HARDER.
And I hate to be the one to point this out, but ... missiles will tend to have computers in them. Computers can be
PROGRAMMED.
I know ... radical idea.
The other point to recognize is that with missiles, if an attacker is willing to accept a delay between launch and impact (and let's be honest, who WOULDN'T want to have such a delay?) then
all kinds of shoot 'n' scoot orbital maneuvering to foil counterbattery retaliation becomes a very real possibility.
Functionally it winds up being somewhat analogous to AV-8 Harriers tossing bombs at ground targets (otherwise known as "bombardment").
If you're a counterbattery response firing BACK along the calculated path of the incoming projectile, you're going to MISS the launcher, because the launching platform HAS MOVED (in who knows what direction) already by the time the return fire arrives.
Our picture of system defense knowledge and maneuver is clearly different from one another.
Using CT sensor ranges, military sensors are working at 600000 km. That is more than adequate for smaller planet 100D, but even in this case it is 60% of the distance- but nothing says the sensors are limited to the planet.
A placement of patrol craft/sensor stations out to say 500000 km would extend detection past the 100D. With as little as 4 in cardinal directions, you can get extended warning and with random movement more complicated to hit the gaps. A more prosperous planet will have enough to provide cover and of course a naval base/fleet would have patrol in depth far past 100D.
Then once any detection occurs, the detecting unit shares the data and suddenly every friendly in the area has 900000 km target solutions.
And of course civilian traffic can be picking them up with luck (probably bad for them), assuming a surprise strike and not locked down or running convoys.
With that, the concept of counterbattery fire is moot- the intruding fleet is directly detected and is free to maneuver all it likes, it’s a target. The scenario painted above is a picture of that fleet following their missile swarm in and splitting fire. They won’t be coming in on any vee level where missiles have a greater damage because they will be detected at range and setting themselves up to suffer kinetic level counterattacks themselves.
If a kinetic strike against known fixed orbital and planetary facilities is desirable, the more likely scenario is building vee prior to launch then after missiles are away either slow down to avoid direct detection or veer off to one side for a slowdown and another pass from a different direction.
Engaging the incoming missiles themselves is another matter. My view is during their boost phase they would be highly detectable with drive/reaction plumes. When they are coasting, presumably they might fit the doggo category by CT standards and thus detectable by 1/8 or 75000 km military. Pretty hard to ensure that tight a sensor net for less than military forces.
If you get detection at any reasonable range, I would say that antimissile fire could hit them especially given they are coasting and not maneuvering. That allows for multiple shots not just the last second PD shot.
Things like meson guns should be able to hit too especially given the Striker depiction of area detonations, depends on how closely the missiles fly to each other. Regular CT flight resolution could have distances of several thousand km between them, HG battery fire suggests a tight grouping to provide overwhelming/mutual support swamping the PD battery.
On the PD shot itself, I would tend to degrade the PD chances themselves if the PD firer is not the direct target itself. PD fire probability is predicated on knowing what target the missile is attacking and thus the limited area it must traverse to get there- general planetary PD is going to not know that. Mutual PD support should be highly limited too, something like 1000km.
OTOH sand should be MORE effective at higher velocity protection.
Finally, circling back to the atmo penetration question, meteors burn up in our atmosphere, not many survive to become meteorites. We can presume advanced materials such as iridium alloy and the like, and optimized reentry designs like the recent comet recovery probe, so there is probably a range of possible vee that could enhance damage, but it’s not at any speed.
Thin or below may will allow greater ranges.