Oh, no I disagree about trade volume.
One thing I think that we have learned as a global society in general is that we trade simply because we CAN trade. I think it really comes down a matter of how expensive transport really is. Seriously, who ever thought it would be profitable to ship WATER (heavy) in BOTTLES (even heavier) across the Atlantic Ocean? And yet, Perrier and Evian isn't dramatically more expensive than local "spring water".
With increased mobility, comes an even higher level of NIMBYism. If you can process ore off planet in the asteroids, why should we pollute the planet?
The other consideration is "locality". You're not going to get a lot of regular trade from the Spinward Marches to the central areas of the Imperium, simply because it's too far. But the more exotic items will make the trip. However, local production of finished goods will happen either way.
The crippling barrier to trade in TU right now is the cost of the ships, and in truth, I think they're a bit high. They're designed and costed out as if they're military vessels with very specialized gear. Military vessels have specialized gear because of their unique, and most importantly, LOW VOLUME, requirements.
If there are millions of smaller starships flitting about the Imperium, "cheap Japanese Avionics", and "Russian Reactors" will be everywhere. SOMEONE will commoditize the entire process. 747's are expensive partly because they only have one competitor, but also look at the thousands of "retired" 747s working the air freight industry today. And, serioulsy, used 747s are pretty cheap.
44MCr for a new Free Trader seems pretty high, but eventually someone smart will go out and buy a fleet of 40 year old ships, staff them with their own mechanics, make his own small repair and refit facility, and make some lucrative deals with a local parts suppliers, and all of a sudden those ships are a lot cheaper, and his costs drop like a rock compared to a new Free Trader.
When trade is cheap, trade happens. The whole drive for containerization, modular freight, information systems, and more efficient container ships are focused on driving those costs down.
Okay, I'm mistaken. A new 747 Freighter costs $200M. Yet, somehow it's profitable for them to move boxes packed with styrofoam back and forth across the planet.
I'd argue that the primary mechanism for moving frieght on planet will be spaceships, because of the commodity nature of the hardware. Why not have a high atmosphere rated 150 ton ship for air freight using CG lifters and thrusters? And right now, those don't cost dramatically more than a ship that can work the inner planets as well.
There's no reason at all why two identical planets won't be shipping chocolate to each other.
So, my point is, that we societies trade because it is profitable for them, and it's good for international and interplanetary relations. When trade is cheap, trade happens, and traders want trade to be cheap.
One thing I think that we have learned as a global society in general is that we trade simply because we CAN trade. I think it really comes down a matter of how expensive transport really is. Seriously, who ever thought it would be profitable to ship WATER (heavy) in BOTTLES (even heavier) across the Atlantic Ocean? And yet, Perrier and Evian isn't dramatically more expensive than local "spring water".
With increased mobility, comes an even higher level of NIMBYism. If you can process ore off planet in the asteroids, why should we pollute the planet?
The other consideration is "locality". You're not going to get a lot of regular trade from the Spinward Marches to the central areas of the Imperium, simply because it's too far. But the more exotic items will make the trip. However, local production of finished goods will happen either way.
The crippling barrier to trade in TU right now is the cost of the ships, and in truth, I think they're a bit high. They're designed and costed out as if they're military vessels with very specialized gear. Military vessels have specialized gear because of their unique, and most importantly, LOW VOLUME, requirements.
If there are millions of smaller starships flitting about the Imperium, "cheap Japanese Avionics", and "Russian Reactors" will be everywhere. SOMEONE will commoditize the entire process. 747's are expensive partly because they only have one competitor, but also look at the thousands of "retired" 747s working the air freight industry today. And, serioulsy, used 747s are pretty cheap.
44MCr for a new Free Trader seems pretty high, but eventually someone smart will go out and buy a fleet of 40 year old ships, staff them with their own mechanics, make his own small repair and refit facility, and make some lucrative deals with a local parts suppliers, and all of a sudden those ships are a lot cheaper, and his costs drop like a rock compared to a new Free Trader.
When trade is cheap, trade happens. The whole drive for containerization, modular freight, information systems, and more efficient container ships are focused on driving those costs down.
Okay, I'm mistaken. A new 747 Freighter costs $200M. Yet, somehow it's profitable for them to move boxes packed with styrofoam back and forth across the planet.
I'd argue that the primary mechanism for moving frieght on planet will be spaceships, because of the commodity nature of the hardware. Why not have a high atmosphere rated 150 ton ship for air freight using CG lifters and thrusters? And right now, those don't cost dramatically more than a ship that can work the inner planets as well.
There's no reason at all why two identical planets won't be shipping chocolate to each other.
So, my point is, that we societies trade because it is profitable for them, and it's good for international and interplanetary relations. When trade is cheap, trade happens, and traders want trade to be cheap.
