When a Koki meets a Koki...

[Whipsnade]

With the current discussions swirling around meson guns, ship sizes, and whatnot, I thought it would be nice to drop some real numbers into the fray. Accordingly, I selected a canonical meson-armed battleship/dreadnought design, the Kokirrak, and had one shoot at a sister ship.

And away we go........

With HG2, it's best to remember that "hitting" usually entails hitting and penetrating. In the case of meson guns, penetration is a two-step process involving screens and configuration.

In the case of one Kokirrak firing on another at Long Range, the To-Hit is an 8+, the To-Pen(Screens) roll is a 4+, and the To-Pen(Configuration) roll is - gasp - automatic. Combining all those rolls give us a 38% chance of any meson spinal shot hitting and penetrating.

The Kokirrak has the best agility allowable at 6, a meson screen rated at 8, and a configuration which provides no defense. A meson screen rated at 9 would have lowered the To-Hit/Pen chance to just under 35%. A configuration of 1 with no other changes would have lowered the To-Hit/Pen chance to 37%. The best configuration available with no other changes would have lowered the To-Hit/Pen chance to 35% again. Sadly, the Kokirrak isn't designed to resist her own main battery very well.

While expected, the result of a single Code T meson spinal hit and subsequent penetration are jaw dropping.

First, we've four Critical Hits: 3 as a result of damage rolls and one from the spinal mount's size. They produce a One Screen Disabled, Jump Drive Disabled, Hangar/Boat Deck Destroyed, and either Maneuver Drive or Power Plant Disabled. As Critical Hits may not be repaired during a HG2 battle, the power plant hit alone mission kills the Kokirrak.

Of course, the "ordinary' hits make that moot.

The computer is not just vapor but most likely a distant memory of vapor as the ship collects TWO Computer-4 hits, THREE Computer-3 hits, NINE Computer-2, and ONE Computer-1 hits.

The crew would most likely be amazed if they weren't also a distant memory. Thanks to TWO Crew-4 hits and FIVE Crew-1 hits, there most likely isn't even any dandruff left aboard.

As for the Fuel Tanks, they've been Shattered TWICE.

THREE Jump-2 hits means what's left of the jump drive may fill a 5 gallon pail.

The power plant, disabled by a Critical Hit, gets slagged with TWO Power Plant-2 hits.

The ship's various screens suffer the consequences of failure and receive THREE Screen-3 hits.

Finally, the warship's weapons aren't forgotten and receive TWO Weapon-4 hits.

That's the results of NINETEEN rolls on the Radiation Damage and Interior Explosion tables plus FOUR rolls on the Critical Hit table.

One Shot, One Kill, most certainly. However, we need to remember that there's just above a 1 in 3 chance of hitting the Koki in the first place. Those ships which aren't knifed in the first round are going to be slinging missiles and beams both at each other and additional targets. Any loss of agility, computer damage, or screen damage from other weapons increases the Koki's vulnerability to her sister's meson spinal mounts.

While a clash of spinals is most definitely nasty, brutish, and short, it's not over in 20 minutes either. It also seems that damage inflicted by secondary batteries and escorts could help tip the battle to one side or the other.

 

[aramis]

While a clash of spinals is most definitely nasty, brutish, and short, it's not over in 20 minutes either. It also seems that damage inflicted by secondary batteries and escorts could help tip the battle to one side or the other.

That's a non-sequiteur, based upon your data.

Given two at 38%... there's only a 48% chance of it going to round two. Almost half of battleship-battleship duels are done within 20 minutes. 73% are over within 40 min.

Add the secondaries, and small fleets are usually decided in the first 20 minutes.

 

[Whipsnade]

That's a non-sequiteur, based upon your data.

Yeah, if we're looking at a lab experiment instead of a battle.

Given two at 38%...

There only being two is not a given.

It's the same fallacy that all those historical battleship debates fall into. It's always "What if Ship A fought Ship B?" ignoring the fact that neither ship would be stepping into the ring alone or unescorted. People look at it like it's a boxing match when it's more like a barroom brawl.

Most of the time, our opposing Kokis aren't going to be alone. They'll be paired in divisions and those division formed into squadrons and those squadrons escorted by any number of "lesser' vessels.

They're not going to walk around a corner and blunder into each other either. They're going to know about the other force's presence hours or days before they ease into weapons range. Their escorting forces are going to skirmishing, establishing possible vectors, attempting to spoof/interfere with targeting, tossing off missiles, and generally trying to "nick" the other side's Big Boy before the battelines meet.

If the escort battle goes well enough, the other side's Big Boys break off before the spinal mounts even get warmed up.

Add the secondaries, and small fleets are usually decided in the first 20 minutes.

Decided when one side decides to break away. If the initial damage is even, however, both sides may stay too long...

It's not toe-to-toe with battleaxes. It's more like a first blood duel with epees.

 

[AnotherDilbert]

Most of the time, our opposing Kokis aren't going to be alone. They'll be paired in divisions and those division formed into squadrons and those squadrons escorted by any number of "lesser' vessels.

True, neither is the spinal mount the only weapon they have.

Missile bays on the battleships or escorts can reduce the spinal factor significantly, meaning lower hit chance for each round.

64 weapon hits or ~1400 fired missile bays will degrade the spinal to factor H, with a much lower chance to penetrate. If we refit all bays to 50 dT missile bays, a Kokirrak can carry 140 missile bays, a BatRon 1400 bays.

Armour and secondary armaments count, even in a meson duel.

 

[AnotherDilbert]

If we win the battle and recovers and repairs a stricken ship it will cost us.

The regular damage is cheap and fast to repair, but critical hits cost a new system.

A Meson T does average 19 × 7 / 36 ≈ 3,7 crits plus an auto crit for size is 4,7 crits.

Average cost
Ship Vap: GCr 135 × 1 / 36 × 4,7 ≈ GCr 17,6
Man Drive: GCr 17 × 4 / 36 × 4,7 ≈ GCr 8,9
Jump Drive: GCr 40 × 6 / 36 × 4,7 ≈ GCr 31,3
Power Plant: GCr 60 × 4 / 36 × 4,7 ≈ GCr 31,3
Armour: GCr 39 × 4,7 / 12 ≈ GCr 15,3

Totally about GCr 105, almost as much as a new ship, but it takes much less time than to build a new ship.

 

[Whipsnade]

Armour and secondary armaments count, even in a meson duel.

Yup, that's why I wrote:

Those ships which aren't knifed in the first round are going to be slinging missiles and beams both at each other and additional targets.

 

[whartung]

Most of the time, our opposing Kokis aren't going to be alone. They'll be paired in divisions and those division formed into squadrons and those squadrons escorted by any number of "lesser' vessels.

They're not going to walk around a corner and blunder into each other either. They're going to know about the other force's presence hours or days before they ease into weapons range. Their escorting forces are going to skirmishing, establishing possible vectors, attempting to spoof/interfere with targeting, tossing off missiles, and generally trying to "nick" the other side's Big Boy before the battelines meet.

If the escort battle goes well enough, the other side's Big Boys break off before the spinal mounts even get warmed up.

So then can the fleet be contrived? What ships would be in such a fleet?

I've not read S9 (I have it on the CD, just not really read it). Does it have enough classes to make a battle fleet out of?

Make a fleet, then keep one together to "blunder about", and then use the elements of the other to skirmish and whatever against it, let us know how that all works out compared to just flinging them at each other.

 

[mike wightman]

The ships in s( are poorly designed, and some of them are just plain broken - try building a jump 4 Tigress and see if you get the same numbers for example

 

[mike wightman]

Here's a thought - try a battle between a Koki division - 2 ships - and a similar cost squadron of 6 Atlantics (which is an old design and being replaced - probably by a slightly smaller but higher agility heavy cruiser design... ).

 

[Whipsnade]

So then can the fleet be contrived?

Only in the broadest sense.

What ships would be in such a fleet?

Again, we only know in the broadest sense.

We lack most of the rules we need to model how a fleet "works". We've no logistic rules, very little in the way of sensor/electronics rules, and have no "operational level" game either.

We don't know how fleets work at the nuts & bolts level so we don't know what comprises fleets at the nuts & bolts level.

I posted the average results of one meson T hit by one specific ship on a copy of itself. The context in which that hit occurred wasn't presented.

 

[flykiller]

We've no logistic rules, very little in the way of sensor/electronics rules, and have no "operational level" game either.

really it all should have been gamed out by now.

 

[RandyB]

Only in the broadest sense.



Again, we only know in the broadest sense.

We lack most of the rules we need to model how a fleet "works". We've no logistic rules, very little in the way of sensor/electronics rules, and have no "operational level" game either.

We don't know how fleets work at the nuts & bolts level so we don't know what comprises fleets at the nuts & bolts level.

I posted the average results of one meson T hit by one specific ship on a copy of itself. The context in which that hit occurred wasn't presented.

"Can combat vehicle X take a hit from its own armament?" remains a valid question, but as you have noted it is far from a conclusive one.

 

[aramis]

Yeah, if we're looking at a lab experiment instead of a battle.



There only being two is not a given.

Two chances, not two ships.

Simply put - with meson-spinal battleship squadron vs battleship squadron, most spinal mounts are about 1/3 likely to cripple the target. By the end of round one, most battles are decided, as one side or the other is likely to be outnumbered 2:1 or more... given the odds, that's when you flee if you can.

I've played a few - and the first round was decisive more than half the time.

It's partly why I disdain the HG combat system - it's too effective at being early decisive at TL14+.

Let's just take a batron vs it's parallel...
using that 38% figure and d%, to save space and maximize the die roller


[roll0] = 5 hits
[roll1] = 2 hits

Next run is going to be 6 vs 3... it's pretty decisive. Time to pull out while one can.

 

[AnotherDilbert]

More commonly used spinals like Meson J and Meson N are much less likely to insta-kill, so combats will not be settled on round 1.

Meson J: 6 / 36 × 10 / 36 × 26 / 36 ≈ 3,3% kill.
Meson N: 6 / 36 × 21 / 36 × 33 / 36 ≈ 8,9% kill.

The huge battleships with giant meson guns will lose even quicker to hordes of smaller ships or riders.

 

[Whipsnade]

Two chances, not two ships.

Wil, you're still assuming a "perfect" battle.

As I wrote before, we see it all the time on historical naval forums. Whether it's one-on-one or matched squadrons/flotillas, it's always sunny, calm seas, etc. All of Clauswitz' "friction" has been removed, but that "friction" decides a battle much more often than any offense vs. defense lab experiment.

The stripped down nature of HG2 also happens to remove much of that Clauswitz' "friction" along with many other important factors. That's why I always caution people to make the distinction between that which works in HG2 and that which works in the OTU's "reality".

What HG2 shows us is not even a fraction of the picture. Sadly, it's the only fraction we have.

 

[aramis]

90% of Clausewitz' "friction" DOES NOT HAPPEN IN VACUUM.

Space weather pretty much is ignored and ignorable, so long as you have a working drive system; canonical rives include screens of some form. (See beltstrike.)

The rest is what the dice rolls subsume: crew attentiveness, reaction times, and electronic/computational errors.

Simply put - given the usual odds, small fleet engagements are usually pretty decisive in round one under HG-80. And there's not enough that CAN modify those odds significantly in HG-80 terms.

The ranges are just barely long enough to justify a to hit roll at all. We hit 5 different targets 1.3 LS away on a routine basis with better than 99% accuracy, using a laser aimed by an out-of-date desktop computer. Weekly. Since 1972.

 

[Whipsnade]

90% of Clausewitz' "friction" DOES NOT HAPPEN IN VACUUM.

We'll have to disagree on that one, Wil.

Simply put - given the usual odds, small fleet engagements are usually pretty decisive in round one under HG-80. And there's not enough that CAN modify those odds significantly in HG-80 terms.

What I'm failing to explain is that Clauswitz' friction primarily occurs before that HG2 round is even diced.

When it comes to OTU naval combat, we're a blind man approaching an elephant. All HG2 does is hand us the trunk so we've no conception about the rest of the animal.

What's that old saw about knowledge? There's what we know we know, what we know we don't know, and what we don't know we don't know. That last category contains nearly all of OTU naval combat.

 

[kilemall]

We'll have to disagree on that one, Wil.



What I'm failing to explain is that Clauswitz' friction primarily occurs before that HG2 round is even diced.

When it comes to OTU naval combat, we're a blind man approaching an elephant. All HG2 does is hand us the trunk so we've no conception about the rest of the animal.

What's that old saw about knowledge? There's what we know we know, what we know we don't know, and what we don't know we don't know. That last category contains nearly all of OTU naval combat.

Wouldn't the same issues apply to OTU naval combat as everything else- that you don't WANT to nail down every particular to allow people 'permission' to season to taste?

 

[Whipsnade]

Wouldn't the same issues apply to OTU naval combat as everything else- that you don't WANT to nail down every particular to allow people 'permission' to season to taste?

That is a very cogent point. I'm all for vagueness (up to a point) because of the very reason you noted; it allows people to "season" their games to meet their needs.

Your point would apply in this case if we were talking about Traveller the RPG. Sadly, we're not. In this case, we're talking about Traveller the war game and the wargame version of Traveller has quite a few holes in it.

Making matters worse, we're using Traveller the wargame to make inferences about Traveller's official setting.

Using wargames to "help" flesh out the setting has backfired spectacularly in the past, just look at how Imperium/Dark Nebula screwed up GT:ISW, so we need to take care when doing so.

As I wrote recently in another thread, when we parse the HG2 design and combat systems we quickly reach and then pass the point where we're learning more about HG2 and less about the OTU.

 

[flykiller]

Wouldn't the same issues apply to OTU naval combat as everything else- that you don't WANT to nail down every particular to allow people 'permission' to season to taste?

what I'm seeing is that most people don't want to know.

the wargame version of Traveller has quite a few holes in it

more hole than game.