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"Why do all these colonists have to be here on Earth?"

rfmcdpei

SOC-12
The sheer number of people living outside of the Solar System shows that humanity is quite good at moving large numbers of people across interstellar distances. Over a century and a half, well over a hundred million people (if not hundreds of millions of people) have emigrated from Earth to several dozen different colony worlds, there producing by 23xx a total population in excess of 1.5 billion people.

Many of the people who went out to the colonies would have ended up returning to Earth. Many colonists wouldn't have been able to make a go of it: Of the 14 elevator car-riding NPCs in Beanstalk, one (an Australian) was a former colonist from the British Continent who was returning to Earth after he decided that his farm on Beta Canum just wouldn't work. More people who went out would have done so on contract, or perhaps as migrant labourers working on specific projects with the intent of returning home and/or sending remittances back to their dependents. The relatively open frontiers which seem to exist in 23xx, at least until the War of German Reunfication, lead me to believe that there may be a lot of people in the non-starfaring powers, even in the ranks of Tier 4 countries, with interstellar experience.

Just as interestingly, by 23xx Earth isn't the only large-scale producer of emigrants. The longest-settled worlds, like the other Core world of Tirane and the very Core-like Niebelungen, are now producing emigrants who will settle the human frontier (see Freihafen's Freisland, Wellonese interest in offworld colonization, the joint Freihafen-Niebelungen projects). Even before these three states became independent, it's likely that they and the non-independent Tiranean colonies produced a fair number of migrants to their colonizers' settlements in the French Arm and elsewhere.

These migrants from the two other developed worlds aren't only going to go to the colonies. More likely than not, most won't: Offworld colonization is expensive, difficult, and often dangerous. How many immigrants to Canada or Australia head out to Nunavut or the Northern Territory? Long before Tiraneans and Niebelungeners head off in any significant number to the Wolf Cluster or 61 Cygni or wherever, they will be going to Earth. Their colonizers are located there, after all, along with their many of their cultural referents (universities, major cities, other historic sites), and their close relatives. If there are a lot of West and North Africans and Antilleans in France now, and plenty of South Asians, southern Africans, and Australians in Britain, surely there will be a lot of Wellonese in London in 23xx, and Neo-Provencaux in Paris?

The ratios of Terrans to Tiraneans/Niebelungers can be surprisingly low. There are nine million Santa Marians versus 74 million Argentines and 70 million Tundkubwans versus a quarter-billion Terran Azanians, while the Tiranean territories of Brazil and Japan hold something like a third of the population of the Terran metropoles, and Nouveau Provence has half the population of Terran France. ratios become particularly low when you're talking about Britain, Australia and Bavaria. There are twice as many Wellonese as Britons, two and a half times as many Australians as on Earth, and between the former Garten and Nibelungen at least seven times as many people as in Terran Bavaria. (That's not quite a fair comparison, since most Freihafeners have ancestors who came from other points in central and eastern Europe. Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Croatia may ave more German-speaking citizens than at any point since before the Secnd World War.) Part of me wonders if one of the reasons for Bavaria's reluctance to join a united Germany was the presence of large-numbers of offworlders ("We'll get the Swabian vote, Herr Schumpeter, but the Tiraneans really aren't buying it.").

What does all this mean for the player? It opens up a variety of interesting possibilities for characters, NPC and otherwise. That Kazakh detective in the Central Asian Republic might have had a grandfather who worked construction on Hochbaden, or that player character from Ubangi-Shari might have belonged to a middle-class family that got ruined when the Kafer War meant that no one could go to Beta Canum to help out with the harvest, or that this mid-ranking German space navy officer's career has stagnated since 2293 because he rose through the ranks of Garten's Raumwaffe way back when. This intertwining of populations also offers up some adventuring possibilities. Did someone leave something important somewhere now inaccessible? Might someone of mixed background be involved in smuggling items from one jurisdiction to another? What nation(s) is someone loyal to?
 
Great post!

Another aspect is brain-drain. If you are bright and ambitious, where do you go to get your education? I would guess most colonies will try to have some higher education but (with some exceptions, like when a major research base is located there) the truly good education exists in only a few places. This means that many colony-born will have gone to the Core for education. It is expensive, but various education foundations may operate programs helping them.

The colonial elite will do their utmost to get their kids into the elite universities: that is the step up from just being big in the colonies to a chance at making it in the Core or going back home and being a shoe-in for high positions. I would for example expect a sizeable number of Wellonese movers and shakers to have been to Oxford and Cambridge, and let's not even get started on how people from across the Empire try to get into the French Grandes écoles.

The big problem is of course that the best and brightest will often stay, or once they learn to enjoy a cosmopolitan lifestyle go to places where they fit in. If I get my PhD at Ecole de Libreville, after doing a postdoc on Tirane I might decide to stay since this is where things are happening, there are more jobs and money around. I will return to BC at most on field excursions or conferences. So starting a good university out in the periphery will be hard, since the really good academics are all in the Core. And since research funding is 90% in the core, you better be around there if you want a chance for the real grants.

On the other hand, groups like IEX, Life Foundation and perhaps the Transhumanist League may get a lot more academic clout out in the colonies simply because they are out there and have at least some funding power. If they want to (and I could imagine this being in line with their missions) they could set up institutes like the ICTP to invite experts and colonial scientists to collaborate, hopefully supporting local development. Over time this has built very powerful networks outside the normal nationalistic channels, with much more cosmopolitan and pro-colonial views than you find on the Core campuses. Maybe this where the revolutionaries of 2320 are originating?

(as for myself, I'm happily brain-drained from the Scandinavian Union to Oxford - it really feels like I have moved to the Core.)
 
Another aspect is brain-drain. If you are bright and ambitious, where do you go to get your education? I would guess most colonies will try to have some higher education but (with some exceptions, like when a major research base is located there) the truly good education exists in only a few places. This means that many colony-born will have gone to the Core for education. It is expensive, but various education foundations may operate programs helping them.

I'd guess that the French Arm (worlds devastated and still somewhat peripheral) and the American Arm (worlds to young or too inhospitable or too underpopulated) would be most prone to this phenomenon.

Manchuria is quite canny is building up an Chinese Arm-wide educational complex on booming Chengdu; it's really planning well. A good grasp of mimetics, perhaps?

The colonial elite will do their utmost to get their kids into the elite universities: that is the step up from just being big in the colonies to a chance at making it in the Core or going back home and being a shoe-in for high positions. I would for example expect a sizeable number of Wellonese movers and shakers to have been to Oxford and Cambridge, and let's not even get started on how people from across the Empire try to get into the French Grandes écoles.

Agreed. The Manchurians might have evaded this trend owing to the rapid development of Chengdu--that world might well be on its way to becoming the capital world of the entire Chinese Arm

Freihafen and maybe Niebelungen might have evaded this trend. Besides being countries wholly independent to Germany, Niebelungen has a population only a bit less than Germany's and Freihafen has nearly twice as many people as Germany. Just as Brazil defines the standards of the Lusophone world, Freihafen might define the standards of 23xx's Germanophone world.

On the other hand, groups like IEX, Life Foundation and perhaps the Transhumanist League may get a lot more academic clout out in the colonies simply because they are out there and have at least some funding power. If they want to (and I could imagine this being in line with their missions) they could set up institutes like the ICTP to invite experts and colonial scientists to collaborate, hopefully supporting local development. Over time this has built very powerful networks outside the normal nationalistic channels, with much more cosmopolitan and pro-colonial views than you find on the Core campuses. Maybe this where the revolutionaries of 2320 are originating?

I'd love to hear more about what's going on in the Epsilon Indi system; Chengdu must be a very very interesting world. The Chinese Arm generally is that, in fact.

(as for myself, I'm happily brain-drained from the Scandinavian Union to Oxford - it really feels like I have moved to the Core.)

I left Prince Edward Island for graduate school in Ontario more than four years ago. Yes, Toronto is Core-like.
 
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Brain Drain - there'd also be a segment of the students who went back to the Core to study that couldn't wait to get back to the frontier. Some would be a fish out of water in that environment, others would rather be a big fish in a small pond. A friend of mine works in the sustainable development field, and one delegate to a conference had a 'lowly' BA amidst a sea of multi-degree Big Kahunas. The reason the BA was a delegate? Back home, in an isolated northern community, having any sort of university degree made him a Big Kahuna there.

Colonist movement - a co-worker of mine was born in Calais, France. Her family moved to Winnipeg when she was 8. And back to Calais when she was 10. And back to Winnipeg when she was 10 or 11. And back to Calais when she was 18 or 20, stayed not quite a year, then you guessed it - back to Winnipeg.

A friend of mine, his parents moved from England to Winnipeg for three years or so, then back to England for about a year, then back to Winnipeg and they've been here ever since.

Interstellar travel what it is, I'd expect some of this to be damped down, but it's not too far 'beyond the pale' that a character's family could have moved a fair bit.
 
There could be quite a bit of intra-colony movement.

A French couple decides to settle in the frontier, so first they travel to Beta Canum for colonist training (being a hub and having good institutions makes it a likely place to assemble colonist teams - they train together, get to know each other). Then they travel to Aurore and become real colonists. A few years later they expect kids and do not want to subject them to the local environment (and those nasty rumours about the Kafers wanting to attack). So they move to Vogelheim, a much nicer environment when you are a young family. A few years down the road they go back to Aurore. Then the kids go off to get a real education on Nous Voila. And so on.

The big costs in space travel is when you have to do long trips between outposts, like the Nyotekundu finger and that horrible Barnard highway. Once you are out in a cluster of colonies trips are cheaper, and colonies of the same nation (or collaborations like ESA and US-Australia) have good infrastructures for colonists moving between them. So many colonists would move occasionally within their clusters. Few people want to stay on King forever, but if you do a stint there you can then get a cushy job as mining manager on some other American Arm world - and your savings will buy a very nice house.

Hmm, there might be "subcultures" that move across the colonies. I have already mentioned the possible split between Core stay-at-home academics and the colonial academics. Troubleshooters seem to be another one of them: ex/quasi militaries, explorers, field agents of negotiable loyalty and adventurers, they are not really at home anywhere and often outstay their welcome. And then there are the belters and libertine traders. They represent a tiny ultra-movable minority that likely snatch up rolling stone people from all worlds. I'm less certain how many people leave this lifestyle and settle down.
 
Returning colonists might have a deep impact when they come back. They have gathered new ideas, new ways of solving things, and the Frontier's more self-reliant entrepreneurial spirit. One of the big changes brought by the emigration to the US from Europe in the 19th and 20th centuries was actually that many turned back home from America, giving new input to their country's development.

My impression of 2320 AD, is that the new stellar nations and old established colonies, mainly on Tirane, are starting to outshine the old motherlands back on Earth. Sending the kids from Wellon back to Oxford does not seem to be the forward thing to do. Which of course is further spurring colonial independence.
 
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