Yori salt exports

[rancke]

From what we've been told, per capita interstellar trade tends to be on the modest side, but there must be exceptions, and it seems that Yori is one of them. Yori has a population of 70 million and according to BtC (p. 82) it's main industry is salt mining for export (the salt is exotic and much sought after by food industries on many worlds).

How many people would be involved in salt mining if it's the main¹ industry? a million? Half a million? Less? More?

¹ What makes it the main industry? Most people involved? Most money earned?​

What sort of export volumes would that translate to? (Note that the salt would be more valuable than ordinary salt).

Any ideas?


Hans

 

[WhiteSpider]

salt

Think it would really depend on the salt use. If it is salt with some special mineral content only found on Yori and used for cooking or industrial uses then exports might be in the millions of tons at moderate prices just higher than normal salt prices. However, if it is some exotic salt like crystallized sweat from an animal only found on Yori and used as an aphrodisiac, then export could be ounces.

Guess unless there is some definitive information, it can be whatever you need.

Rob

 

[rancke]

Think it would really depend on the salt use. If it is salt with some special mineral content only found on Yori and used for cooking or industrial uses then exports might be in the millions of tons at moderate prices just higher than normal salt prices. However, if it is some exotic salt like crystallized sweat from an animal only found on Yori and used as an aphrodisiac, then export could be ounces.

"Yori's huge dried sea beds provide a salt enriched with an unusual combination of minerals that are much sought after by the food industries of many worlds." [BtC:82]​

Hans

 

[Vladika]

I that particular case mining would not be labor intensive. The salt would likely be dissolved in warm water and pumped to the surface, dried by evaporation and scraped up, ground and packaged in bulk.

On the other side of the coin, here's a link to a less modern method. I think you will find it of interest. Wait for the full load, it's worth it.

http://wildwoodsartstudio.blogspot.com/2013/02/weird-wednesday-polish-salt-mine.html

 

[tjoneslo]

What sort of export volumes would that translate to? (Note that the salt would be more valuable than ordinary salt).

Any ideas?

Well, according to GT:Far Trader, Yori has a GWP of 409BCr and a WTN of 4.5. (see p 131) If we assume (as it states on GT:FT p14sb) that 1/2 of the GWP is in external trade, we now have 205BCr per year in trade. Looking at the table on p. 16, that would give us about 500 to 1000 tons per week being shipped out.

A main industry would constitute the majority of the external trade. This would be somewhere between 30% and 70%. The low end assumes a large number of other external trade industries, none of which exceed 30% of the external trade. The high end is pretty obvious. The text I've seen on Yori does not provide a clue as to which way this is. I'll assume 50% or 102BCr per year is the salt trade. GT:FT assumes that cargo is worth between 10KCr and 50KCr per dton. But GT:FT never sets prices on the goods. Other Traveller systems do (T20 trade system does, look for the trade cards in the gallery).

This should give you some ballpark figures to work from.

 

[rancke]

Well, according to GT:Far Trader, Yori has a GWP of 409BCr and a WTN of 4.5. (see p 131) If we assume (as it states on GT:FT p14sb) that 1/2 of the GWP is in external trade, we now have 205BCr per year in trade. Looking at the table on p. 16, that would give us about 500 to 1000 tons per week being shipped out.

The point is that I don't think an export industry of 500 to 1000 tons per week could be the main industry of a world with 70 million inhabitants.

A main industry would constitute the majority of the external trade.

No, a main industry would be the most important industry on the world. That it happens to be an export industry is irrelevant to its prominence. That's why I'm suggesting that the generic trade rules do not cover the situation and that Yori's salt exports would be a lot more than 500 to 1000 tons per week. What I'm having trouble estimating is how much more.

The production of salt on Earth, a world with about 100 times more people than Yori, is 210,000,000 tonnes per year. 1% of that would be 2,100,000 tonnes per year or 40,000 tonnes per week. That would be for Yori's domestic consumption. Assuming its exports were only the same as its domestic production and assuming a maximum of 5 tonnes per dT, that would take up 8,000 dT per week.

But would salt production be the most important industry if exports only equalled the domestic consumption?


Hans

 

[Murphy]

Why do you assume 5 metric tons per dt?

Considering the density of salt, it could be as much as 30 metric tons per dt. Sure some of it is eaten up by packaging, but not 80%!

 

[Hemdian]

I that particular case mining would not be labor intensive. The salt would likely be dissolved in warm water and pumped to the surface, dried by evaporation and scraped up, ground and packaged in bulk.

You might not even need to do that much. IMTU, Yori is a dried out world with many salt flats. The salt is already on the surface ready to be scraped up ... like at the Bonneville Salt Flats in Utah, USA (though there they still use evaporation of brine to 'mine' the salt).

(My version of Yori comes from a 1980's campaign, written up and posted as part of the 2003 TML 'Landgrab'. It predates BtC so doesn't mention salt exports. At some point this year I'll want to update it in line with T5.)

 

[rancke]

Why do you assume 5 metric tons per dt?

Considering the density of salt, it could be as much as 30 metric tons per dt. Sure some of it is eaten up by packaging, but not 80%!

It's a vaguely recalled (and possibly misunderstood) rule from Far Trader (I think). It's a limit on how much mass a ship can handle.


Hans

 

[aramis]

Why do you assume 5 metric tons per dt?

Considering the density of salt, it could be as much as 30 metric tons per dt. Sure some of it is eaten up by packaging, but not 80%!

Canon sets the DTon at no more than 14 megagrams nor 14 kiloliters of stuff for cargo purposes (via MT, FF&S and BL design sequences). YOu only allow 1 Mg per kL

 

[Hemdian]

Canon sets the DTon at no more than 14 megagrams nor 14 kiloliters of stuff for cargo purposes (via MT, FF&S and BL design sequences). YOu only allow 1 Mg per kL

Are you sure? 1 Mg/kL = 1Kg/L = density of water. So if you're transporting something denser you'd have to include empty space in your cargo container to bring the density down.

In T5 the dton is back to 13.5 cubic meters (and 1 cubic meter = 1 kL). And on the dton page (p35) there are listed densities:

• Liquid hydrogen = 1,000kg per dton
• Wood = 7,000kg per dton
• Plastic = 12,000kg per dton
• Water = 13,500kg per dton
• Magnesium = 25,000kg per dton
• Aluminum = 35,000kg per dton
• Titanium = 60,000kg per dton
• Steel = 100,000kg per dton

So by those figures, if you were transporting steel and had a 1Kg/L limit then only 13.5% of your shipping container could be used, the rest would have to be empty. Which seems odd to me.

 

[Vladika]

So by those figures, if you were transporting steel and had a 1Kg/L limit then only 13.5% of your shipping container could be used, the rest would have to be empty. Which seems odd to me.

Kind of like shipping Cold Rolled Steel or Railroad Rails today?

 

[atpollard]

Kind of like shipping Cold Rolled Steel or Railroad Rails today?

Especially by Air Freight ... you can hit either 'maximum allowable weight' or 'maximum allowable volume' and then 'no more cargo allowed'.

 

[Vladika]

Especially by Air Freight ... you can hit either 'maximum allowable weight' or 'maximum allowable volume' and then 'no more cargo allowed'.

Even modern Cargo ships go by "Grain or Bale" for volume (they differ) but it's still the Plimsoll Line for weight.

 

[aramis]

Are you sure? 1 Mg/kL = 1Kg/L = density of water. So if you're transporting something denser you'd have to include empty space in your cargo container to bring the density down.

BL notes 10Mg/Td, and that heavier can be carried, but the ship's performance must be recalculated case by case if the ship exceeds 10Mg/Td overall...

And if you've ever looked inside rail cars, often, they aren't full. Likewise, my trucking buddies complain that they often have a trailer only 2/3 full but are already at weight limit.

And the "TEU" used in Real World Naval Shipping is likewise a limit on weight (60K# including container) and volume (20'x8'6"x10')... but it's not as exact, as the heavy test allows 70K# per TEU.

Then again, in CT, the notes on cargo suggest most cargo containers are at least half empty...

 

[tjoneslo]

Why do you assume 5 metric tons per dt?

It's a GURPS Vehicles design assumption carried through to the GT line and designs. In Vehicles, the rule is cargo is assumed to be 20lbs/cf, a GURPS dTon is 500cf, so 5 sTons per dTon. GT starship performance can be altered by carrying more or less weight, rather than simply being limited by volume like most of the other Traveller rules sets, so the GT:FT rules assume that the shippers enforce the 5 sTons per dTon for shipping containers. In the same way Aramis was point out is done in the real world.

 

[tjoneslo]

The production of salt on Earth, a world with about 100 times more people than Yori, is 210,000,000 tonnes per year. 1% of that would be 2,100,000 tonnes per year or 40,000 tonnes per week. That would be for Yori's domestic consumption. Assuming its exports were only the same as its domestic production and assuming a maximum of 5 tonnes per dT, that would take up 8,000 dT per week.

The quick google search I found a global average of 10g of salt per person per day, or 24,920,000 tonnes per year. The difference would be the remaining 90% of the salt production is used for something other than consumption. The text of Yori implies the salt is mined for human consumption rather than other uses (e.g. industrial processes or salting roads). The article goes on to explain this consumption should be, for health reasons, 50% lower.

Working forward from 102BCr per year, the question becomes how much does salt cost. Based upon current prices, table salt is $150 to $300 per tonne, or using the GURPS conversions, about Cr1000 per dTon. Since this is smaller than the assumed KCr5 to KCr10 per dTon for goods in GT:FT, the volume of trade (in dTons) would be much larger.

My initial look at the table on GT:FT p16 was wrong. 102BCr per year at Cr1000 per dTon gives (about) 100M dTons per year or 5M dTons per week. This in turns assumes 500M tonnes of salt produced per year, or 25M tonnes per week. This is enough to supply about 137 billion people with their annual salt supply.

Domestic consumption would be 255,500 tonnes per year. I think it is invalid to link domestic consumption to export consumption, if you are assuming a major industry.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics says there were about 87,000 people in the coal mining industry. In 2012 that number of people produced about 1B tonnes of coal. Again assuming a linear scaling, producing 500M tonnes of salt requires about 43,000 people. But this is just the people involved in the salt mining, but not, for example, the mechanics who build or maintain the mining machinery, the people who drive the trucks, the starport personnel, and so on.

 

[aramis]

https://www.americanrocksalt.com/about.asp - a US rock salt mine -

The mine employs 200 FTE, and produces 10000 to 18000 tons per day... that's roughly 250 work days per year, and this about 2 MTons per annum as a low-end...

so 500 MTons is about 500x100 people - 50K people.

But for large scale, the scaling isn't linear, and peak production is going to be closer to 6x18x52 or 5.6MTons per 200 people, a factor of x2.3...

... so it could be as low as 21K people. Assuming TL7-8 mining.

 

[Murphy]

Even if freight mass is limited, it's beside the point.

You can say that a 200dT cargo bay cannot safely hold a full load of salt because of weight limitations (5000 kilos per dT vs salt's natural density of 30000 kilos per dT).

But you can't fill that cargo bay to one-sixth its volume and still say you're carrying 200dT of salt. No, what you carry is a few dtons and the rest is empty.

Plus, I think it's ridiculous that starships would waste space like that. Space on a starship is hugely valuable. I would either carry some salt and fill the rest with lighter goods, or just use ships with more drive power per dton of cargo space.

 

[rancke]

Plus, I think it's ridiculous that starships would waste space like that. Space on a starship is hugely valuable. I would either carry some salt and fill the rest with lighter goods, or just use ships with more drive power per dton of cargo space.

Quite likely they do. FT skips very lightly over complications like unbalanced trade volume, mass, and price.


Hans