The effects of automation on a stellar society

[dalthor]

IMTU, the Varan people survived catastrophe by relying on technology - specifically robotics and artificial intelligence. See relevant info in my .sig link.

Essentially, drudge work and most services are performed by bots, droids, and automated systems. This runs the gamut from agriculture to wait staff and other menial jobs. Most trade is also automated, with fully automated ships running trade routes with minimal human input.

The Varans are approaching the point where survival is no longer as large a concern, and they are starting to expand their horizons. Exploration and colonization will be upcoming priorities.

I foresee society having a human professional segment, and a lot of free time for creative endeavor. They can work if they want to, but it is not required. As time goes on, I can see them losing some skills, and expanding into others. The hard part will be preventing stagnation and boredom.

[ side note: read Robert A. Heinlein's "For Us the Living" and "Time Enough for Love" for some insight into what I see happening. ]

I've got a good idea where my campaign will be going, but am looking for other opinions. Please keep comments constructive - I know opinions will vary, and I'm looking for useful input, not arguments.

So, consider a society where automation is normal. Humanity has the option to do these jobs, but no need to do so.

What effects would this much automation have?

What types of "jobs" would you expect a person to do?

What benefits and detriments would you see resulting from this?

Creative input appreciated - I'm looking for your version of the future, as a sanity check for mine.

 

[aramis]

Presuming no true creative AI, just autonomous operation....

The extensive use of bots won't eliminate laborers - some of the wealthy will pay a reasonable living wage for butlers, maids, and nannies, even janitors. But those who do take those jobs are taking them because they are, themselves, prestige jobs... the presumption is that the individual is going to be working to the same standard as the bots, but possibly with more trust, and that the employer is filthy stinking rich. Some will do part time out of boredom, and for pride in labor.

Most of the jobs I would expect to be part time service jobs. Chefs, cashiers, wait-staff, salesmen. Even bussers. The dishwasher might be a bot, and the cooks as well, but the chef is likely to be a life form. More life forms working equals more prestige.

Expect a lot of crafts - sure, a functional version may be Cr10, but a hand carved case makes it Cr50... but enhances your status for having it. (Much like the jeweled custom iPhone and iPad cases in Asia.)

Tailors - a good tailor may no longer be running the sewing machine, but is adjusting patterns.

Of course, Education, Engineering, and Design are going to be staples. Programmers will be elites.

Medical staff, too. Tho' orderlies are likely to be replaced, nurses won't.

What you're unlikely to see is assembly line workers, and plant farmers. Animal farming, while able to be automated a good bit, will likely still be hands on.

 

[dalthor]

Presuming no true creative AI, just autonomous operation....

Thanks, that is case - humans are still the creative factor. I used autonomous without really explaining what I meant by it. I knew something was missing above...lol.

 

[taustin]

I would suggest Infinity Beach by Jack McDevitt (which I would recommend anyway) as an example of world building that includes the idea that nobody has to work unless they choose to. The Alex Benedict series (same author) has that as part of the setting, but it's not as obvious - there are several points in IB where it gets some discussion.

People tend to gravitate towards the creative professions, or professions that require human judgment. So you get scientists, artists and historians a lot.

 

[mike wightman]

Unless they are incredibly altruistic and shared out the wealth, this culture must have a very dark and dirty historical secret. How did they get rid of the excess population that were replaced by the robots and automation?

The rich who could afford the robots, who could afford to be shareholders in the automation plants would become wealthy. Their spending power becomes the economy for the next class down. So artists, services, researchers, scientists, medics...

 

[aramis]

Unless they are incredibly altruistic and shared out the wealth, this culture must have a very dark and dirty historical secret. How did they get rid of the excess population that were replaced by the robots and automation?

The rich who could afford the robots, who could afford to be shareholders in the automation plants would become wealthy. Their spending power becomes the economy for the next class down. So artists, services, researchers, scientists, medics...

Revolutions often dispossess the wealthy.

Many near revolutions wind up with socialization instead... when the choice is higher taxes or lose everything to the revolutionary committee... Most of the wealthy accept the socialization as a cost of doing business. And automated space farms can easily generate loads of food at minimal costs in a fusion power and gravitics society.

 

[rancke]

Unless they are incredibly altruistic and shared out the wealth, this culture must have a very dark and dirty historical secret. How did they get rid of the excess population that were replaced by the robots and automation?

I don't see anything incredible about it. Average wealth increasing and average worktime decreasing as tech level goes up is a historical trend.


Hans

 

[mike wightman]

I can't reply to that without it going to the pulpit - all I can say is that isn't how its worked out here in the UK.

 

[Dagrill]

I can't reply to that without it going to the pulpit - all I can say is that isn't how its worked out here in the UK.

It's normally immigrants that fill in on the lower end jobs, so you just need a closed society.

Regards

David

 

[mike wightman]

So will there be people doing the jobs robots don't want to

Will there be feral descendants of the underclasses being employed do do jobs too menial for the robots? Or will they be living in the sewers or out in the wilds (remember even Gallifray had rebels living in the wilds) or will they have long since disappeared...

these are meant to be possibilities for adventure, not social commentary by the way.

A culture like the one the OP describes will either be a social paradise where everyone shares in the robot generated wealth, or there will be a rich elite robot/factory owning class vastly more wealthy than the rest.

 

[Ishmael]

Actually, increases in technological progress and FDI ( Foreign Direct Investment ) tend to exacerbate any level of income inequality in an economy. FDI is where a higher tech world invests in a lower tech world such as the Imperium promotes, perhaps.

so, yes, average incomes ( gdp per capita ) will increase, but so will the Gini index as less educated and skilled people get left behind, especially where education costs rise out of reach of the lower classes.

The impact of technology on inequality is closely related to that of FDI. Technological progress, in both developed and developing countries, increases the premium on skills and tends to substitute away low-skill inputs (Birdsall, 2007). Technological progress thus increases the relative demand for higher skills, thereby exacerbating inequality in income. In developed countries, the use of technology is widespread in both manufacturing and services, affecting a substantial segment of the economy.

The adverse impact of financial deepening on inequality could suggest that while overall financial deepening is associated with higher growth, a disproportionately larger share of increased finance goes to those who already have higher incomes and assets which can serve as collateral.

http://www.palgrave-journals.com/imfer/journal/v61/n2/full/imfer20137a.html

 

[dalthor]

Unless they are incredibly altruistic and shared out the wealth, this culture must have a very dark and dirty historical secret. How did they get rid of the excess population that were replaced by the robots and automation?

In general, if you've read the material on my wiki section (link in my signature), it is not a dark dirty secret, it was a "cure" that went horribly wrong. Automation was already in place, which is the only reason civilization survived at all.

A culture like the one the OP describes will either be a social paradise where everyone shares in the robot generated wealth, or there will be a rich elite robot/factory owning class vastly more wealthy than the rest.

It basically comes down to the first - maybe not paradise, but everybody shares the wealth. It was a survival situation, but not an "every man for himself" scenario, again due to the existing integrated automation already providing the basics needed to survive.

For all intents and purposes, every person has food and shelter, and a comfortable existence. They can do nothing but read books all day, and still have that security blanket. Most aspire to more, and Varan science, art, technology, and ambition reflect that.

--

The hardest thing to comprehend about all this is that in meatspace we see things from the "have and have not" standpoint for the vast majority of us. It is hard to imagine, let alone describe, a civilization that is "people" versus "me" oriented.

That is the main reason I seek input - trying to wrap my feeble brain around that (near utopian?) society, and how it would need to function to maintain its very existence, creativity, and "humanity."

Aramis, in his first reply, came pretty close to what I envision, at least in the general sense.

 

[Nonespecial]

People seem to be at their most creative when they have the time, the interest, the money/resources, and are not hampered by social rules or law.

Also, historically, whenever a society has had more of its members "freed" from manual labor due to increases in technology, that has allowed a greater and greater percentage of people to make new discoveries, creations, and inventions, and ultimately drive the pace of technology to free more and more people from daily labor. (As I'm sure anyone on these forums knows already.)

So I would agree that a society with plenty of resources and food (i.e. are not overpopulated and fighting over their resources) and with enough automation to get those resources would spend most of their time in activities that are fun and involve learning, exercise, sport, writing, painting, thinking, etc.

You would also have I'm sure a large percentage of people who would not create or add new knowledge or discoveries but would instead spend their time enjoying the creations of others. For example, you'd have a lot of people reading books but not as many writing, but if everyone had a greater education and a societal inclination towards pushing learning and being educated, such people may not be as common as i would think. Not everyone writes books worth reading is what I mean.

Not sure I helped here but maybe I gave some ideas...

 

[OjnoTheRed]

This thread is really interesting. One problem with thinking through scenarios like this is that new technology has a way of overthrowing existing social relations; so seeing future societies through the have/have-not social relations we see around us is difficult, because there would probably be revolutions historically located between our society and theirs. For me, this means we can hand-wave some questions and what you've written along with aramis sounds like an interesting scenario to me.

I'd like to throw in another idea here: Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs. I'm pretty sure it won't be news to many of you but it looks like this:

It sounds to me like Varans have physiological needs met - but what about safety and security or higher needs? The need to meet higher needs could be the source of interesting conflict for the sake of our players.

How would an adventure look when the Varans have self-actualisation needs, and "... enter the players."? (Maybe something like this).

 

[flykiller]

What benefits and detriments would you see resulting from this?

automated law enforcement.

automated customer service. "press 1 for black. press 2 for blue." "but I want green." "that is an invalid response. press 1 for black ...."

automated social policy. "the algorithm of health has determined you are not eating enough carrots. five dollars has been deducted from your bank account towards the purchase of carrots. in accordance with balancing consumer spending this purchase has been allocated to food store #34781. during your next vehicular excursion you will be taken there to pick up your purchased carrots. have a nice day."

automated law enforcement against pre-crime.

and so on. imagine the worst of dickinesian and soviet bureaucracy implemented by an irresistable cast-iron machine dedicated to making you happy by its standards. "your regularly schedueled bowel movement has not yet taken place. allow me to assist you."

see the movie "transcendance" for more ideas.

 

[flykiller]

http://www.dilbert.com/2014-05-11/

 

[Limburger59]

For all intents and purposes, every person has food and shelter, and a comfortable existence. They can do nothing but read books all day, and still have that security blanket. Most aspire to more, and Varan science, art, technology, and ambition reflect that.

Why read? Why aspire to more? I see this culture de-evolving to something akin to the Eloi described in H.G. Well's The Time Machine.

Of course if Travellers showed up on this planet they would either find their ship captured by the equivalent of the Morlocks, or robot baby sitters have confiscated all their weapons as a danger to society. The robot butler approaches and states, "Sir, your sandwich has been chewed to resemble an ancient weapon known as a gun. You will accompany me to your reeducation cell."

 

[dalthor]

I'd like to throw in another idea here: Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs. I'm pretty sure it won't be news to many of you but it looks like this:

Interesting that you brought this up...lol.

When I started my original campaign in the late 70's, I wanted to get outside the comfort zone of the players, and get them to think in a new way.

Maslow's hierarchy provided an idea, and my campaign grew from there. I named the campaign "The Varan Influence" because of the possible impact an integrated, cohesive society with no fear of automation could have on the (admittedly chaotic) Imperium.

The Varans have met the base survival criteria, and they are now finalizing that survival portion. Due to the nature of the catastrophe that caused the survival issue, they've integrated the family and social aspects into that phase.

They are now preparing for the safety and security level of the pyramid.

The Shattered Worlds are a big concern - the capacity exists to wipe the Varans from existence. They are also aware of several star-faring civilizations, and they are starting their own expansion phase as a hedge against total annihilation AND any (possibly hostile) incursions by other empires.

IMTU the players (both Imperial and Varan PCs will be in play) are going help that process along. The means is as yet unknown - I (the referee) have ideas; the players can make life interesting by going directions I haven't forseen.

There are plenty of adventure hooks built into my wiki info; it'll be fun to see where the players decide to go.

I'm rebuilding the campaign; it has been gathering dust for about 15 years, and it is time to bring it back into the light of day. My original group is long-dissolved, but a new group is being built.

I'm looking forward to it...

 

[Original_Carl]

I suggest you check out The Fourth Industrial Revolution by Jeremy Rifkin. Great book about the post fossil fuel economy and the increasing automation of the workforce. In short, he says service jobs will be the only ones done by humans. Massage therapists, nurses, care takers, and so forth -- pretty much what Aramis said.

I'd add artists and other creative pursuits will be human only for a very long time.

 

[SanDragon]

Landru has determined you are not of the Body.

Come with us.