Anagathics and Population

[Timerover51]

It is never stated, as far as I know, in canon, how common anagathic drugs are, but clearly they exist. How is that going to affect population growth?

Population growth is determined by the excess number of births over deaths. If anagathics are widespread, then the number of deaths is going to decline, speeding up the growth rate. The character generation tables show aging as a effect at 38, 54, and 70, so it would appear that player characters do not have any of the benefits.

Second, what effects would the possession have by the nobility and/or wealthy of life-extending drugs on the masses that would not access to them. Would this not tend to produce a great deal of unrest and unhappiness among the populace at large?

 

[aramis]

It is never stated, as far as I know, in canon, how common anagathic drugs are, but clearly they exist. How is that going to affect population growth?

The costs are, however, given.

kCr200-KCr1200 per year.
Using Bk 1-3, kCr200/year

If using striker baselines and a German income distribution...

Spoiler:

	Pent 1	Pent2	Pent3	Pent4	Pent5	Dec10	Dec1
GDR	8.01	12.95	17.13	22.62	39.29	24.36	3.09
France	7.64	12.4	16.33	21.79	41.82	27.15	3.01
USA	5.09	10.49	15.70	22.96	45.75	29.43	1.62
China	5.67	9.74	15.31	23.20	47.09	29.98	1.69
USA 2015	3.1	8.2	14.3	23.2	51.1	—	—	Top5% 22.1

[td]
[tc=8]http://www.indexmundi.com/facts/germany/income-distribution[/tc] [tc=8]http://www.indexmundi.com/facts/france/income-distribution[/tc] [tc=8]http://www.indexmundi.com/facts/united-states/income-distribution[/tc] [tc=8]http://www.indexmundi.com/facts/china/income-distribution[/tc] [tc=8]Pent X= Pentile Number X, DecX is decile X[/tc] [tc=8] http://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/demo/tables/p60/256/table2.xls [/tc]

Knowing the average citizen of the 3I is from a TL 12 pop A world...
Doing the "bad" of using Striker GDP numbers.
TL 12 average GDP per capita is KCr16... 1.6e4
24.36% of income in the top 10%, so 2.436% per %... the median of the top decile is about kCr38880...
so probably less than 1%
Note that the US top 5% have about 5x the per person income as the average... The average income should be in a pentile which equals 20% or a decile at 10%
so, even the top 5% are excluded. Maybe the top 1% of the population...
if even that.

On a Ag rich TL15 (A-1{5-6}{4-8}{6-7}5_-F) world, average income kCr42, top 5% clear at least 5x the average (barring a socialized economy), and can afford it... but such worlds are rare, and unrealistic.
A TL15 world at max pop is likely to be In... KCr30.8, and again... top 5% average 5x the whole average, so KCr154... They can't. The top 1% likely can.

 

[maksimsmelchak]

It is never stated, as far as I know, in canon, how common anagathic drugs are, but clearly they exist. How is that going to affect population growth?

It's all about elites...

Shalom,
Maksim-Smelchak.

 

[Timerover51]

It's all about elites...

Shalom,
Maksim-Smelchak.

So was the French Revolution. If 1% of the population has access to life-extending drugs, the populace at large is not going to be exactly happy about this.

 

[Nathan Brazil]

Ageless (relatively) population should also be a question brought up addressing the impact of the Vilani and population. In the Vilani Cultural Region at least, this would be important.

 

[kilemall]

It is never stated, as far as I know, in canon, how common anagathic drugs are, but clearly they exist. How is that going to affect population growth?

Population growth is determined by the excess number of births over deaths. If anagathics are widespread, then the number of deaths is going to decline, speeding up the growth rate. The character generation tables show aging as a effect at 38, 54, and 70, so it would appear that player characters do not have any of the benefits.

Second, what effects would the possession have by the nobility and/or wealthy of life-extending drugs on the masses that would not access to them. Would this not tend to produce a great deal of unrest and unhappiness among the populace at large?

I don't know that I buy into either meme.

Theoretically we have the same situation with increased lifespan almost doubling, yet post industrial countries are mostly ZPG.

Call it the elf effect, perhaps you live 1000 years but only tend to mate during one 10-30 year period of that time.

As to anagathics, depends largely I think on the worthiness of X individuals getting the privilege.

I could see people being very good with heroes, prized athletes, productive inventors/scientists, entertainers, leaders etc. living long. Where they will get angry is seeing worthless useless people that just have noble or monetary privilege getting treatment.

In the world of Instrumentality/Norstrilia EVERYONE gets anagathics, but due to cost and 'fairness' everyone gets 'just' 400 years of the doses (except for a very few Lords of the Instrumentality that are begged to live longer due to their worth). You could go that direction.

Except for Norstrilia itself. Since they MAKE the Anagathics and want to keep their planet a rural sheep farming environment, they test the children for will to live when of age, and kill off the ones that fail.

A more subtle thing to play with perhaps would be a different kind of unrest- stagnation.

The leaders would literally be from centuries ago.

Imagine what our countries would be like if they still had the same leaders from 1816 in charge. If you have the dead hand of the past literally still at the helm, there can be a resistance to necessary change we have not experienced yet as a species.

This extends to other realms of endeavor as well. Imagine you have Beethoven or Liszt still alive and producing- do you have the same musical environment we have now? Would cultural development be stagnant, or if you have the best minds of the last 300 years working off each other would you have an explosion of creativity we can't imagine?

 

[flykiller]

Second, what effects would the possession have by the nobility and/or wealthy of life-extending drugs on the masses that would not access to them. Would this not tend to produce a great deal of unrest and unhappiness among the populace at large?

if one buys into the "travellers are exceptional" meme, one could say that anagathics are known and sought by the "traveller class" while the populace at large views them as an urban legend.

It's all about elites...

including the guillotines?

 

[flykiller]

Imagine what our countries would be like if they still had the same leaders from 1816 in charge. If you have the dead hand of the past literally still at the helm, there can be a resistance to necessary change we have not experienced yet as a species.

oh sure we've experienced it. china stagnated technologically for a thousand years. they came up with gunpowder, cannon, and ocean-going ships - and then tossed them aside, because the culture didn't support "progress" and the leaders were in absolute control of everything and had no need for any of it. then the british sailed around the world and up the yangtze with gunboats.

now imagine the vilani.

could explain why the imperium is so slow in tech advancement and implementation. or, perhaps, just in implementation ....

"do we need model 9 computers to retain power?"

"no."

"sit on it for another century" ....

Imagine you have Beethoven or Liszt still alive and producing- do you have the same musical environment we have now?

given modern tech and business practices, yes. modern popular music is popular, readily accessible, and drives sales and advertising, thus it floods the market. a living beethoven or liszt would be no more or less popular than the dead versions.

 

[Timerover51]

I don't know that I buy into either meme.

Theoretically we have the same situation with increased lifespan almost doubling, yet post industrial countries are mostly ZPG.

If you check, Japan, Germany, and Russia have entered into negative population growth, primarily because of the lack of births to compensate for deaths. In an agricultural society, children are net producers from a fairly early age, while in an industrial society, children are net burdens on the family and economy for quite a while. As a society industrializes, the birth rate starts to drop, compensating in the long run for the increased life expectancy.

Japan (from current CIA World Factbook): 7.8 births/1,000 population (2016 est.), 9.6 deaths/1,000 population (2016 est.)

Germany (from current CIA World Factbook}: 8.5 births/1,000 population (2016 est.), 11.6 deaths/1,000 population (2016 est.)

Russia (from the current CIA World Factbook): 11.3 births/1,000 population (2016 est.), 13.6 deaths/1,000 population (2016 est.)

How many families do you know that have more than 2 children, or have as many as 6 or 7?

 

[McPerth]

[m;]Please, beware this interesting thread does not become political. Risk is high, and it would be a shame closing it.[/m;]

 

[McPerth]

If you check, Japan, Germany, and Russia have entered into negative population growth, primarily because of the lack of births to compensate for deaths. In an agricultural society, children are net producers from a fairly early age, while in an industrial society, children are net burdens on the family and economy for quite a while. As a society industrializes, the birth rate starts to drop, compensating in the long run for the increased life expectancy.

Japan (from current CIA World Factbook): 7.8 births/1,000 population (2016 est.), 9.6 deaths/1,000 population (2016 est.)

Germany (from current CIA World Factbook}: 8.5 births/1,000 population (2016 est.), 11.6 deaths/1,000 population (2016 est.)

Russia (from the current CIA World Factbook): 11.3 births/1,000 population (2016 est.), 13.6 deaths/1,000 population (2016 est.)

How many families do you know that have more than 2 children, or have as many as 6 or 7?

Well, anagathics have nothing to do with that (at least to my knowledge). This age increasing affects the whole population, not only a small elite (be economical elite, intelectual elite, or whatever).

And a society might have other means to become stangnant or planed. Imagine Hari Seldon and his cadre in planing for Fundation being put in low berth, and unfrozen every so often to help directing Fundation to its planed destiny, and freezing them again for another while, instead of appearing as recorded holograms hoping the plan goes well.

 

[flykiller]

Imagine Hari Seldon and his cadre in planing for Fundation being put in low berth, and unfrozen every so often to help directing Fundation to its planed destiny

a living dead hand? most people would tell him "were up to speed on the last century, you don't know what you're talking about here" and most leaders would tell him "but that's not what I want now".

 

[McPerth]

a living dead hand? most people would tell him "were up to speed on the last century, you don't know what you're talking about here" and most leaders would tell him "but that's not what I want now".

Or ot would become a kind of religious figure.

Of course, it would not be to unfreeze them and let him talk, but to unfreeze them and make them analyze the situation to guide "his people". Only then will them appear in public or make some kind of speech.

See that in Fundation, they nearly take heldon appears as Holy Writ until the Mule comes, while knowing it's a recording from years or centuries ago...

 

[Timerover51]

Or ot would become a kind of religious figure.

Of course, it would not be to unfreeze them and let him talk, but to unfreeze them and make them analyze the situation to guide "his people". Only then will them appear in public or make some kind of speech.

See that in Fundation, they nearly take heldon appears as Holy Writ until the Mule comes, while knowing it's a recording from years or centuries ago...

I never did like the Foundation series because of the assumption that it was possible to predict human behavior hundreds of years in advance.

I was just pointing out that in an industrial society, while people live longer, the reduction in birth rate results in stagnant or negative growth rates. That is a demonstrable fact.

 

[kilemall]

[m;]Please, beware this interesting thread does not become political. Risk is high, and it would be a shame closing it.[/m;]

Elf procreation rates are political?

 

[kilemall]

Fundation? The fun Foundation? Or interstellar financial manipulators?

 

[kilemall]

oh sure we've experienced it. china stagnated technologically for a thousand years. they came up with gunpowder, cannon, and ocean-going ships - and then tossed them aside, because the culture didn't support "progress" and the leaders were in absolute control of everything and had no need for any of it. then the british sailed around the world and up the yangtze with gunboats.

now imagine the vilani.

could explain why the imperium is so slow in tech advancement and implementation. or, perhaps, just in implementation ....

That's cultural direction, people making similar decisions over centuries. Very much the same effect I suppose.

However, imagine what happens if an Emperor who was expansionist got anagathics and was able to live 200 years to oversee a sea change in that society. Could be a very different China with different outcomes for it and the world.

Or Genghis Khan lives 200 years.

For the US, does the civil war happen if the Founding Fathers are still alive to talk down Calhoun and his political heirs? What is WWI like if Frederick the Great, Queen Elizabeth I, Napoleon and Washington are hashing it out?

VERY different world, some good, some bad I imagine like anything else.
given modern tech and business practices, yes. modern popular music is popular, readily accessible, and drives sales and advertising, thus it floods the market. a living beethoven or liszt would be no more or less popular than the dead versions.

The business model may be driven by technological opportunity of mass media, but the CONTENT may be VERY different. Rock and roll may not exist, Liszt with synths and electric guitar may go in VERY different directions artistically, or the revolt against the Living Masters may produce punk in the 20s.

Tesla gets Kickstarter funding and starts sticking it to 'the man', hooks up with Jobs as front man, we get some serious accelerated tech.

 

[flykiller]

Elf procreation rates are political?

well it affects tax rates ....

Or Genghis Khan lives 200 years.

and apparently he sired so many children that approximately 20 million people can trace their lineage to him.

 

[flykiller]

I never did like the Foundation series because of the assumption that it was possible to predict human behavior hundreds of years in advance.

heh. reminds me of the chinese history I've heard. "they were doing this and doing that and philosophizing this and philosophizing that. and then the mongols showed up."

 

[kilemall]

I never did like the Foundation series because of the assumption that it was possible to predict human behavior hundreds of years in advance.

The concept was to apply quantum physics modeling, which is highly accurate for large aggregates of molecules or electrons, to societal modelling, with people standing in as the individually unpredictable but predictable in large numbers molecules.

Perhaps not doable at a planetary level, too small a 'sample' too much variation, and it only works with a galaxy full of people.