Book 2 economics, again! Beating the dead horse...

[boomslang]

Originally posted by daryen:
So, replace "charter" with an equivalent word that means "client and shipowner negotiate a deal with no preset rates".

As a "per parsec" cargo/passage rates heretic, I just multiply the base charter rate by the ship's j-drive number... if the potential client is a real punter, after a beat I add "plus expenses"...

And that's for the legal jobs... for the "extra-legal" jaunts, I start by quadrupling my normal base fee and require a security deposit with a third party...

 

[aramis]

J1: 6 target hexes
J2: 18 target hexes
J3: 36 target hexes
J4: 60 target hexes

The odds of an Ind world are about 1/30 IIRC
Odds of Ag are about 1/10

These are the two big players under Bk2... J3 and J4 give you pretty good odds (Ind: roughly equal chance at J3 of one being in reach as the density, j4 should have double the density. Ag: J3 should have one no matter the density other than rift; J4 should have several.) In a follow-the-mods strategem, IE non-route tramps, J3 is really the break even point for speculating.

The effects are more powerful under Bk7, but less dramatic... and result not in follow the mods wild tramping, but in fixed routes.

 

[robject]

Thanks for the analysis, Wil, that's the kind of summary that's informative without being overwhelming.

 

[Fritz_Brown]

Originally posted by daryen:
So, replace "charter" with an equivalent word that means "client and shipowner negotiate a deal with no preset rates".

Would this be "speculative passengers"?

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by Sigg Oddra:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by rancke:
The problem with that explanation is that this means that ship-owning PCs are required to be the kind of people that rich men will be willing to co-sign loans for. Something that is not as much as hinted at anywhere in the rules. I feel the breeze of hands waving here.


Hans

It fits very well with the spirit of nobility that is meant to exist within the Imperium though.

Trustworthy folk being sponsored to go out and make good the Imperial ideal.
A gentleman's word is his bond and all that </font>[/QUOTE]Where in the character generation rules is there even a hint that the PCs must be trustworthy people (or even just have a reputation for being trustworthy)? Is there any rule that says that ex-servicemen have a better chance of getting a starship than people from the 'Other' class? Any hint that officers are better off than enlisted? Is there any support for the notion that a noble is cosigning the loan anywhere? Not that I can find.


Hans

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by robject:
Right. We are not talking about a single A2 scraping by on speculative trade and freight costs. 10kt freighters, if they exist in the Marches at all, will be on the Xboat route, period.

10K freighters will be on routes between worlds with economies big enough to produce sufficient trade goods to keep 10K freighters running. Nothing more is required. And if you do have such economies, you'll need armed blockade ships to prevent 10K ships from existing and plying those routes.

It's a sliding scale. Local worlds will subsidize some merchants, because otherwise the mail wouldn't get passed back and forth. So?

You'll need worlds with big enough economies that the government can afford to subsidize a ship, yet too low for regular trade to exist on its own. Such worlds will exist, but they'll lie in a very narrow range and there won't be many of them.

Well, we don't know what their capacities are. We can assume that they each have at least 50 ships operating in the Marches.

We have a considerable amount of information about their capacities. In the case of Oberlindes I even did an analysis of it:

"OBERLINDES LINES: Major interstellar shipping company in the Regina subsector. Oberlindes Lines was established in the aftermath of the Fourth Frontier War, depending to a great extent on Imperial surplus transport ships to meet the demand for trade good by worlds cut off by that war.

Oberlindes Lines currently boasts a commercial fleet of more than 100 ships, including 10 ships of greater than 4000 tons and 30 ships of greater than 1000 tons." [The Kinunir, p. 41 (Date = 1105)]

"...In the years following the False War, Oberlindes Lines obtained an Imperial charter and began operations with a large fleet composed almost entirely of navy surplus ships -- now numbering in the hundreds. The organization concentrates on the smaller feeder routes, but has recently expanded into main line service, in direct competition with Tukera Lines and other more established major shipping lines..." [Twilight's Peak, pps. 45-46 (Date = 1106)]

"OBERLINDES FAST TRANSMISSION: Oberlindes maintains fast courier ships which carry any important news from point to point within the subsector. Any messages that arrive at an Oberlindes station are carried at jump-5 to Paya. Oberlindes communiques are carried to all Oberlindes stations at jump-5 from Paya. There are Oberlindes stations at Paya, Violante, Carsten, Aramanx, Nasemin, Towers, Jesedipere, and Lablon." [The Traveller Adventure, p. 111]

"Oberlindes Lines maintains a transport fleet ranging in tonnage from 100-ton couriers to 5000-ton transports. Typical of its fleet is the 1000-ton cargo carrier."[ibid., p. 144]

I did a writeup of Oberlindes for JTAS Online where I explained the jump from 130 ships to 'several hundred'. (Basically, Oberlindes had been buying up small fledgeling lines and keeping them under their old flag. In 1105 it folded all those small lines into itself).


Oberlindes fleet per TK:

"more than 100 ships" = 130 ships (Could be a bit less; I used 130. YMMV).
"10 ships of greater than 4000 T = 10 * 5000 = 50,000 T
"30 ships of greater than 1000 T = 30 * average 3000 = 90,000 T
90 ships of 1000 T or less = 90 * average 550 = 45,000 T
Total = 185,000 = average of 1423 T.

Oberlindes fleet per TP (Assuming the above and assuming the newly acquired ships averaged the same as its old ships (not necessarily true, of course -- the new ships could have been mostly small fry)):

"...numbering in the hundreds" = 200 ships = 200 * 1423 = 285,000 T + 60,000
from EMISSARY = 345,000.
Total value =MCr114,000.

Obviously there is wiggle room, but the pre-1106 fleet, at least, is pretty definite. As for "numbering in the hundreds", it could be quite a bit more than 200.

We also know how they operate via LBB7. Their niche is not ad hoc.

I don't understand what you're getting at here.

But their capacity? It might be within an order of magnitude of the capacity of lone A's and A2's.

Just the pre-1106 fleet alone would total somewhere around 185,000 dT. That's three order of magnitude more than a lone free or far trader. And that's just for Oberlindes.


Hans


PS. FWIW, I did a more detailed breakdown of the numbers for my article, but that is not, of course, CT canon. I'm including it here for the benefit of anyone who thinks it sounds reasonable:

Regina Subsector

About 80 freighters in the 1,000 to 5,000-ton range and 14 2,000-ton passenger liners along the subsector's major routes. Another 40 smaller ships in the 200 to 800-ton range service feeder routes.

Aramis Subsector

Some 40 freighters in the 1,000 to 4,000-ton range are constantly occupied shuttling cargoes to and from the border. Another score of ships in the 400 to 800-ton range operate along feeder routes.

The Vargr Extents

The company has about 20 ships in the 2,000 to 4,000-ton range employed in the Extents and frequently hires smaller local ships on a temporary basis to supplement its capacity.

Escort Division
The escort division consists of a score of paramilitary vessels, mostly in the 400 to 600-ton range. The flagship is the Dianthus Surperbus an old 1,000-ton Chrysanthemum-class destroyer. In addition the line has two dozen couriers of varying capability from jump-2 to jump-5 that also belong to the escort division.

The full article can be seen here if you have a JTAS subscription:

http://jtas.sjgames.com/login/article.cgi?372

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by Sigg Oddra:
The OTU is age of sail - it can't be anything else until instant FTL comms are invented.

It's like the Age of sail if some respects, but there are differences too. For one thing, the people of the Imperium is familiar with another 3,000 years of accumulated human experience. For this and many other reasons it will never be exactly like the Age of Sail. The analogy will only stretch so far.

Incidentally, the number of noblemen during the Age of Sail that lent people money on the strength of their good name alone may have been larger than it is today, but the number who did so without expecting a reasonable chance of a return on their money wasn't all that big.

2) The Spimward Marches is a frontier because it is so far from the core worlds. Are there even Free Traders in the core worlds I wonder? They are part of the Imperium only in name. Interplanetary wars break out and the Imperium doesn't intervene, trade wars cause death and destruction and the Imperium does nothing.

Mora, Trin, Rhylanor, Glisten, Strouden, Lunion, Regina, Efate, Louzy, etc. are core worlds in themselves in the economic sense.


Hans

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by far-trader:
So there! As I've said before it can be done under the per jump rates and Book 2 rules. You just have to design the ship properly and choose the right crew and route.

That may even be true, but it misses the point. It's not enough that one carefully designed ship with a carefully selected crew can make it on a carefully selected route. To work, the system must allow all ships run in a reasonable manner to be able to make it along all routes. Note that I'm not talking about those fledgeling lines where 9 out of 10 go under after a while. I'm talking about any route run by an established company. If they can't make money running ships along a particular route, why would they run ships along that route?


Hans

 

[robject]

Originally posted by rancke:
Where in the character generation rules is there even a hint that the PCs must be trustworthy people (or even just have a reputation for being trustworthy)? Is there any rule that says that ex-servicemen have a better chance of getting a starship than people from the 'Other' class? Any hint that officers are better off than enlisted? Is there any support for the notion that a noble is cosigning the loan anywhere? Not that I can find.

Hans

Yes: the mustering out tables. (Perhaps not a noble in every case, but quite possibly a "patron", be it person or organization, nonetheless).

 

[robject]

This is the kind of stuff I like to see.

Originally posted by rancke:

Oberlindes fleet per TK:

</font><blockquote>code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;">10 x 5,000 t
30 x 3,000 t
90 x 550 t Total = 185 kT
Avg: 1423 t</pre>

[/quote]De accordo. You hit the same range as I. My guesstimate was 160 kT, but the difference isn't meaningful. See this post. Oberlindes is a "BCr10 company".

Oberlindes fleet per TP:

</font><blockquote>code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;">200 ships x 1423 t/ship avg = 285 kT
+ Emissary (60kt) = 345 kT

Total value =MCr114,000.</pre>

[...]

PS. FWIW, I did a more detailed breakdown of the numbers for my article [...]:

</font><blockquote>code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;">Regina:
80 x 1,000 - 5,000 t
14 x 2,000 t
40 x 200 - 800 t

Aramis:
40 x 1,000 - 4,000 t
20 x 400 - 800 t

Gvurrdon:
20 x 2,000 - 4,000 t
+ hired local ships

Escorts:
1 x 1,000 t destroyer
20 x 400 - 600 t military surplus
24 x couriers</pre>[/QUOTE][/quote]Actually, this is all good stuff, and the original number is very close to what I was thinking about Oberlindes. Your extrapolations about fleet expansion and business-merger policies seem reasonable to me.

When I mentioned that Oberlindes was within an order of magnitude of fledgling lines and tramp traders, I meant in taking all fledglings and traders together. Add their total tonnage up, and the result may be within an order of magnitude's of Oberlindes'.

Which may have been more likely to be true in 1105 versus 1106...

It looks like Oberlindes is in transition. It took advantage of the Fifth Frontier War to feed its ambitions of becoming a sector-wide corporation.

EDIT Coming up with my own Fake Numbers for post-5FW Oberlindes, I get generally the same number as Hans again:

</font><blockquote>code:</font><hr /><pre style="font-size:x-small; font-family: monospace;"> After the Fifth Frontier War.
Very rough guesstimation.

1 x 60,000 t Emissary 60 kT
20 x 5,000 t freighter 100 kT
40 x 2,500 t freighter 100 kT
20 x 1,000 t liner 20 kT
20 x 600 t liner 12 kT
20 x 400 t merchant 8 kT
20 x 400 t patrol 8 kT
20 x 300 t Gazelle 6 kT
20 x 200 t merchant 4 kT
20 x 200 t fast courier 4 kT
20 x 100 t courier 2 kT = appx 324 kT, 221 ships

avg: 1466 t/ship</pre>[/QUOTE]I'd say that after the War, Oberlindes becomes a BCr20 Company. Figure BCr10 per 150,000 T of ship for subsector/interface lines, and figure one person per million in the Spinward Marches travels somewhere each week.

This implies that sector-wide lines appear to be worth nearly BCr100 per 150,000 T of long-legged ship, leading to a sloppy but convenient heuristic:

</font>

• Subsector trade routes are worth about BCr10.</font>
• Main trade routes through a sector are generally worth some simple multiple of the sum of its subsectors.</font>

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by robject:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by rancke:
Where in the character generation rules is there even a hint that the PCs must be trustworthy people (or even just have a reputation for being trustworthy)? Is there any rule that says that ex-servicemen have a better chance of getting a starship than people from the 'Other' class? Any hint that officers are better off than enlisted? Is there any support for the notion that a noble is cosigning the loan anywhere? Not that I can find.

[/qb]Yes: the mustering out tables. [/QB]</font>[/QUOTE]Elucidate, please.


Hans

 

[far-trader]

Originally posted by rancke:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by far-trader:
So there! As I've said before it can be done under the per jump rates and Book 2 rules. You just have to design the ship properly and choose the right crew and route.

That may even be true, but it misses the point. It's not enough that one carefully designed ship with a carefully selected crew can make it on a carefully selected route. To work, the system must allow all ships run in a reasonable manner to be able to make it along all routes. Note that I'm not talking about those fledgeling lines where 9 out of 10 go under after a while. I'm talking about any route run by an established company. If they can't make money running ships along a particular route, why would they run ships along that route?


Hans </font>[/QUOTE]No, I don't think I missed the point since I was making one or two

We have a set of rules for a trade system and a set of rules for the construction and purchase of ships meant to operate under those trade rules.

The two CAN work together.

The problems noted come about because official designs have failed to follow the rules.

It IS enough that one carefully designed ship with a carefully selected crew can make it on a carefully selected route. That is the requirement for a loan and if it can be done it will be done and a sloppily designed ship with a carelessly thrown together crew that CAN'T make it on the same route (or ANY route) will NEVER be financed under the loan rules. There may be other ways such a ship comes to be built but it won't be as a new mortgaged free merchant.

More to the point, my ship isn't designed to make it "on a carefully selected route" but rather on the only type of trade the rules imply is left for free-traders, that is the worlds off the mains, chiefly all the not class A and B starport systems. Beyond that it was built to run full capacity for the average population roll. It should almost always be turing away passengers (though not always high passengers) and turning down cargo lots. As long as it avoids the usual bad places to trade, low pop worlds and red zones, it should do fine as a free-trader.

I DO believe the system WILL "allow all ships run in a reasonable manner to be able to make it along all routes" provided such ships are properly designed and operated and the tailored to the route. I also DO NOT see any official designs that actually do this and can only blame laziness or creative whim in designing them. This is what causes all the problems with the whole stupid "the trade system can't work and must be wrong" discussions.

That 9 out of 10 and 99 out of a 100 in Book 7 strikes me as a simple off the cuff and not thought out line for the sole purspose of color text. I'm sure it wasn't meant to be statistical except in the "lies, damned lies, and statistics" sense. At that kind of failure rate I doubt anyone would undertake it in the first place and no one would back you if you did. Of course using the official designs those numbers are probably quite optimistic. I'm not sure you could find 1 in 1,000,000 routes where an official design with more than J1 could make a profit.

Originally posted by rancke:
If they can't make money running ships along a particular route, why would they run ships along that route?

They would not. I agree. The point is they can't with the ships as designed but probably could if they were. It's not the rules that are broken but the use (or misuse) of them that has led to the problems. It's not bad enough that most of the official designs are broken in one or more ways but they often aren't even designed to work within the rules.

I don't blame player's and refs for wondering WTF when they are told the trade rules are per jump and then they are given an official desing like the Empress Marava A2 and there isn't a chance they can make the payments.

I do wonder WTH was in the desiner's mind when they came up with it though and tried to present it as a workable design. Why not be honest and describe it as "skip bait". Tell the players up front "you get this cool ship that no one can turn a profit with so you should just run for the border and adventure, maybe turn pirate, and forget about trying to play honest merchants".

I'm not saying player's shouldn't have cool ships if that's what is wanted by the group. I am saying they should not be told through official material that "here is a merchant ship with loan payments you have to make under the trade rules" when in fact it can't.

That is the story of the official standard A2, and in fact all the official merchant ships with more than J1. They can only work under heavy government subsidies.

My point in making the above ship was to show that there will be A2 type ships that can operate under the trade rules. Any ship that needs to operate under some other tweak of the rules can't compete with it. Therefore they will not be built, people will likely build the one that makes the most profit. So even in a per parsec trade tweak my ship will outperform the standard A2 by an order and no one will build the standard A2 except as an "adventuring" ship and it seems unlikely that a creditor would fund such under a business model loan. Some other form of loan perhaps, but not the standard.

And don't get me started on the standard "charter" rates, that is a rule that just makes no sense at all and should be ignored. Charter should be whatever the market will bear or no one will be building those Safari Ships either, and no merchant with a working ship would ever take a charter unless he likes spacing credits.

<sigh>

Sorry for the length, it bugs me more than I should let it.

 

[robject]

Originally posted by rancke:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by robject:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by rancke:
Where in the character generation rules is there even a hint that the PCs must be trustworthy people (or even just have a reputation for being trustworthy)? Is there any rule that says that ex-servicemen have a better chance of getting a starship than people from the 'Other' class? Any hint that officers are better off than enlisted? Is there any support for the notion that a noble is cosigning the loan anywhere? Not that I can find.

Yes: the mustering out tables. [/QB]</font>[/QUOTE]Elucidate, please.


Hans [/QB]</font>[/QUOTE]It's a stretch, but it's a possibility: ex-merchants, ex-scouts, ex-scientists, and ex-nobles can "receive" a starship as a mustering out benefit... and generally officers are the ones with that possibility. Rogues can't.

Although, I don't see why a Rogue couldn't "obtain" one. I suspect that's a roleplaying scenario waiting to happen.

 

[robject]

Originally posted by thrash:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by robject:
[some career PCs] can "receive" a starship as a mustering out benefit... and generally officers are the ones with that possibility. Rogues can't.

Neither can [other equally deserving career PCs].

</font>[/QUOTE]I was responding to Hans' question. I was citing potential evidence, not making judgements about rules fairness.

 

[BillDowns]

Getting back to the topic and Far-trader's last comments, how about a contest. Have someone who does not participate pick a starting system in the Spinward Marches, and the contestants pick a route - no more than 4 or 5 systems - and design a ship for it. Along with the ship designs - deck plans optional - a table of typical revenue and expenses should be submitted.

 

[robject]

1..2..3..4..
5..6..7..
8..9..
10.

I do think Sigg's assertion is possible or even probable, and getting a ship via mustering out can be seen as supporting it. That's all.

The ships do seem tied to reservist status. And they are awards. The fact that some are on loan is particularly telling about the assumed trustworthiness of the player characters -- trust is trust.

Please cut me some slack. These are angels dancing on the head of a pin. Does it matter how many I can count there?

 

[robject]

Originally posted by BillDowns:
Getting back to the topic and Far-trader's last comments, how about a contest. Have someone who does not participate pick a starting system in the Spinward Marches, and the contestants pick a route - no more than 4 or 5 systems - and design a ship for it. Along with the ship designs - deck plans optional - a table of typical revenue and expenses should be submitted.

This would be awfully fun.

I think everyone could particpate. Plus, this would be a great way to refine designs.

Thank you, Bill. I like your suggestion.

 

[far-trader]

Originally posted by robject:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by BillDowns:
Getting back to the topic and Far-trader's last comments, how about a contest. Have someone who does not participate pick a starting system in the Spinward Marches, and the contestants pick a route - no more than 4 or 5 systems - and design a ship for it. Along with the ship designs - deck plans optional - a table of typical revenue and expenses should be submitted.

This would be awfully fun.

I think everyone could particpate. Plus, this would be a great way to refine designs.

Thank you, Bill. I like your suggestion. </font>[/QUOTE]Well, color me surprised

I had actually tossed around proposing this idea myself, even dropped Hunter a note waaaaaay back about it iirc (looking for some goodies for the winner). Never heard back and to be honest wasn't too sure the idea was that interesting.

So, we have two who would be interested, and as I've set the bar I guess the judging and setup falls to me. Let me see what I can come up with and I'll start a thread to test for wider interest.

 

[mike wightman]

I'd enter my LBB2 designed speculative trader, I've even got a crew for her:

Belter A69788 Age 26 2 Terms Cr 100000
Computer-1, Navigation-1, Prospecting-1, Vacc Suit-2
Seeker

Rogue 865A39 Age 42 6 Terms Cr 110000
Carousing-2, Forgery-1, Ship Tactics-1, Streetwise-2,
Vehicle-1
Blade x2, Gun, Travellers'

Merchant 4th Officer 6936D3 Age 46 7 Terms Cr 35000
Administration-2, Electronic-2, Engineering-1, Gun Combat-1
Gun, Low Passage x2

Merchant 3rd Officer 867366 Age 34 4 Terms Cr 100000
Jack-o-T-2, Medical-1, Navigation-1, Steward-1, Vehicle-1
Gun x2

Scout 3B8889 Age 38 5 Terms Cr 100000
Computer-2, Gun Combat-1, Gunnery-2, Jack-o-T-2,
Mechanical-1, Pilot-1, Vehicle-1
Low Passage x2

Navy Lt Cmdr 678BBA Age 34 4 Terms Cr 61000
Engineering-1, Gunnery-1, Mechanical-1, Medical-1,
Vacc Suit-3
Blade

Pooling their resources they've got MCr0.5 to begin speculating with.

And since the deck plans are just modifications for the type R...

 

[mike wightman]

The belter has to trade in his seeker to put the down payment on the merchant, and I'll choose Regina as their starting point.

TL10 Regina