Book 2 economics, again! Beating the dead horse...

[Jeffr0]

I'm coming in late on this...

Can I play with just LBB 1-3 and a Regina subsector map?

Is there anything beyond the QLI reprint that I need? (And any major rules gotchas/error I should know before I start?)

 

[far-trader]

I'm thinking I'll provide any and all needed information beyond the basic LBB 1-3 (basically just the trade data for the world set used). In fact all you should need will be LBB 2 to build the ship.

Second edition LLB 2 Sigg Not saying yours isn't but I know and share your fondness for the original jump drive rules

I'll be busy till mid next week but will run it through my head some. I'm posting a quick little topic to kick it off, direct further interest and questions there please. See...

Merchants Run

 

[BillDowns]

Far-trader, I don't have 2ed, 25th run. What are the differences?

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by far-trader:
We have a set of rules for a trade system and a set of rules for the construction and purchase of ships meant to operate under those trade rules.

The two CAN work together.

The problems noted come about because official designs have failed to follow the rules.

It IS enough that one carefully designed ship with a carefully selected crew can make it on a carefully selected route. That is the requirement for a loan and if it can be done it will be done and a sloppily designed ship with a carelessly thrown together crew that CAN'T make it on the same route (or ANY route) will NEVER be financed under the loan rules. There may be other ways such a ship comes to be built but it won't be as a new mortgaged free merchant.

Your're not accounting for the one case that I'm basing my claim that the trade system is broken on, namely the carefully designed ship with a carefully selected crew that nevertheless cannot make it on a perfectly reasonable route.

More to the point, my ship isn't designed to make it "on a carefully selected route" but rather on the only type of trade the rules imply is left for free-traders, that is the worlds off the mains, chiefly all the not class A and B starport systems. Beyond that it was built to run full capacity for the average population roll. It should almost always be turing away passengers (though not always high passengers) and turning down cargo lots. As long as it avoids the usual bad places to trade, low pop worlds and red zones, it should do fine as a free-trader.

But your ship is carefully selected in that it's a jump-2 ship. The standard freight and passenger rates corresponds pretty well to the optimum rate for jump-2 traffic. The problem I have with them is that they allow (properly designed) jump-1 traffic to make out like bandits and drive jump-3 traffic into bankruptcy.

I DO believe the system WILL "allow all ships run in a reasonable manner to be able to make it along all routes" provided such ships are properly designed and operated and the tailored to the route.

And I tell you that you're wrong. Jump-3 traffic cannot make it.

(Incidentally, there's a complicating factor: The various ship design systems give different results. Book5 ships, for instance, spend several percent of their volume on power plant fuel, whereas T4 designs require extra tonnage to carry small craft.)

I also DO NOT see any official designs that actually do this and can only blame laziness or creative whim in designing them. This is what causes all the problems with the whole stupid "the trade system can't work and must be wrong" discussions.

No, what causes the problems is that jump-3 and higher ships cannot break even if they can't charge more than 1000 credits per dT for freight and Cr8-10,000 per passenger for passage.

(It's also a black eye for verisimilitude that jump-1 traffic can make a mint at those rates, since this implies that the normal competitive forces of the marketplace somehow doesn't apply).

That 9 out of 10 and 99 out of a 100 in Book 7 strikes me as a simple off the cuff and not thought out line for the sole purspose of color text.

You wouldn't have to twist my arm to accept that proposition, but do note that it is every bit as canonical as the trade system you so fervently believe in. If you're willing to ignore the one, why not ignore the other? Answer: You think the first sounds silly but that the second sounds OK. Well, I don't think that fixed freight and passenger rates that are guaranteed to drive a ship into bankruptcy sounds OK. Do you?

My point in making the above ship was to show that there will be A2 type ships that can operate under the trade rules.

Well, I'm quite willing to believe you. As I said, according to my calculations, the canonical freight and passenger rates are well suited to jump-2 traffic. But they're not suited for jump-3+ traffic (and they're too much for jump-1 traffic).


Hans

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by robject:
Although, I don't see why a Rogue couldn't "obtain" one. I suspect that's a roleplaying scenario waiting to happen.

Personally, I wouldn't allow my players to have a starship unless I wanted to run a campaign where they had a starship, and if i did, I'd let them have one (very possibly as a result of an adventure) whether the character generation system provided them with one or not.

What I mean is, starship or not is a referee question. It has nothing to do with the players[*] (Also, if I did give them a starship, they'd better not try to sell it !!! ).


Hans

[*] Well... if the players didn't want a starship, I wouldn't force one on them...

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by BillDowns:
Getting back to the topic and Far-trader's last comments, how about a contest. Have someone who does not participate pick a starting system in the Spinward Marches, and the contestants pick a route - no more than 4 or 5 systems - and design a ship for it. Along with the ship designs - deck plans optional - a table of typical revenue and expenses should be submitted.

While this could be fun, I'm not sure what it would prove. My thesis is that new ships are so expensive that no one will have one build unless he is pretty confident that he can keep its holds and/or staterooms pretty much filled for the next 40 years. This either means a signed long-term contract or a boom economy with no end in sight.

Let me try a concrete example. You're Sergei Oberlindes. You suddenly notice that Al Morai is carrying passengers from Regina to Rhylanor by a very roundabout route, namely via Lanth. This means it takes 7 jumps and costs 56,000 Credits to get from Regina to Rhylanor. "I can do better than that", you think, and start working out a proposal for building a small passenger liner to capture some of that trade. What ship do you design, what route do you plan to run it on, and how much profit can you make if you charge, say, 55,000 credits for the trip?

How many potential passengers? Robert, do you have a suggestion? I don't have my material about Al Morai here.


Hans

 

[robject]

Originally posted by thrash:
trust and noble patronage alone do not explain the why some careers have access to ships and some don't;

I'm not trying to explain why some get ships and some don't; I'm suggesting noble patronage is one of the possible explanations why a character gets awarded a ship.

Do pirates and belters receive ships as a result of the trust placed in them by their noble connections?

I simply observe that it is possible, and therefore a player or referee can invoke the presence of a noble as the cause for an effect of chargen.

(Now I have to go back and see if my observation is worth anything at all to the discussion. Or I can just ask Hans if I contributed anything at all.)

As a referee, I can see a pirate being entrusted a corsair by a noble -- an evil noble, perhaps -- for the sake of privateering. It's one of several possible reasons, others being his own wiles, or booty from a rival gang, or just a new product from an Evil Pirate Shipyard.

A belter could be entrusted to a seeker by a patron who considers the character lucky enough to find a good strike for his noble house.

I think we're arguing past one another. It could be that my point isn't worthy of Hans' argument, but we seem to have veered off on a tangent.

 

[robject]

Originally posted by rancke:

Let me try a concrete example. You're Sergei Oberlindes. You suddenly notice that Al Morai is carrying passengers from Regina to Rhylanor by a very roundabout route, namely via Lanth. This means it takes 7 jumps and costs 56,000 Credits to get from Regina to Rhylanor. "I can do better than that", you think, and start working out a proposal for building a small passenger liner to capture some of that trade. What ship do you design, what route do you plan to run it on, and how much profit can you make if you charge, say, 55,000 credits for the trip?

How many potential passengers? Robert, do you have a suggestion? I don't have my material about Al Morai here.

Hans

Hi Hans. I don't have any data for this that wouldn't start yet another heated argument

Using straight Book 2, what are the passenger and freight numbers from Regina to Rhylanor?

 

[Black Globe Generator]

Originally posted by thrash:
No, actually, it can't -- that was what I just demonstrated*. A proposed solution that leads to a contradiction is not a solution at all, and should be modified or discarded in favor of something that does work. You can get upset all you like, but it won't change the rules of logical inference (modus tollens, in this case).

It may be angels dancing on the head of a pin, but if it was worth proposing in the first place it should be worth serious scrutiny and comment. Or were we supposed to simply bask in its inherent coolness and not think about it any further?


*Specifically: trust and noble patronage alone do not explain the why some careers have access to ships and some don't; they don't even correlate particularly well, if you look at all the careers equally. Do pirates and belters receive ships as a result of the trust placed in them by their noble connections? No? Then why should we accept that this is true for merchants?

thrash, I don't believe you've "demonstrated" anything here.

Unless I missed another reply somewhere, and please forgive me if I did, your response seems to be, "Well, ex-Navy characters (for example) could be trustworthy, and they seem likely to have better noble connections than most other characters, so why don't they get ships on mustering out?"

The answer is simple - what is an ex-Navy character expected to do with a starship? Every other class that gets a starship does so because they have an inherent use for the ship built in: merchants trade, belters prospect, pirates raid, hunters safari, scientists research, scouts scout, and nobles are just busy being nobles. Unless you're assuming that ex-military go straight into the mercenary trade on mustering out, I don't see a compelling reason for ex-Navy or ex-Marines or ex-Army (or ex-Saliors or ex-Flyers for that matter) to be awarded ships.

As far as noble patrons backing the other classes' access to starships, I see no problem with that at all. Scouts we can remove consideration here - they're essentially still Scouts for as long as they have that IISS ship on loan. Merchants don't require a lot of explantion - whether you assume that they have their ships due to good credit and successful trading or noble sponsorship, giving a merchant a starship on mustering out isn't a stretch for most Traveller gamers. The same I believe can be said of nobles.

Hunters seem like a fairly obvious candidate for noble patronage, whether the hunter is presently "on the payroll" or simply received the ship as a reward for services rendered. Scientists, too - a noble endowment in the form of a lab ship awarded to a university or private laboratory works very well for me. An unscrupulous noble surreptitiously backing a corsair in order to strike against the commercial interests of her rivals doesn't seem like to much of a stretch to me - alternatively, IMTU I allow characters from the Pirate career to be privateers, in which noble patronage is even more obvious.

The career that seems least likely on first look to be awarded a ship due to noble influence is that of the Belter, but I would also say that a belter doesn't really need much of an explanation - the ship represents the results of a successful strike, or was salvaged and converted, or something similar. Considering that seekers start out life as surplus, this isn't too much of a stretch. However, a noble investing in a mining venture who provided a stake to a belter early in the prospector's career might include a ship as a reward for a job well-done, so I can see a nexus here as well.

So please, thrash, explain to me what I missed here, because I don't share your logical certitude.

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by robject:
I think we're arguing past one another. It could be that my point isn't worthy of Hans' argument, but we seem to have veered off on a tangent.

I didn't mean to ignore you, Robert. It's just that I left the institute shortly after posting my request for elucidation, and when I got back, I noticed that Chris had expressed all my arguments right on the nose. I do not think that the character generation system contains any hint of a suggestion that anyone is co-signing the loans for merchant ships because they think the PCs are fine fellows (I also think such a plot element would potentailly be a huge influence on any campaign and definitely would deserve to be spelled out, not just implied -- not that it is implied anywhere, IMO).


Hans

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by robject:
Using straight Book 2, what are the passenger and freight numbers from Regina to Rhylanor?

I don't think Book 2 provides any way to estimate passenger and freight numbers between any worlds that are more than one jump apart. How about a total guesstimate? Let's say one potential passenger per day (on the average), and let's further say that you can't expect them to wait for your departure if going by Al Morai would get them there faster. Does that sound reasonable?


Hans

 

[Black Globe Generator]

Originally posted by thrash:
As soon as you have to invoke another factor to explain the differences between merchants and naval personnel, you have invalidated robject's example. He implied that trust and noble patronage were sufficient in themselves to explain why merchants received an otherwise economically unviable ship as a mustering out benefit. That explanation leads to the contradiction that those characters most likely to have the trust and connections to acquire a ship do not have that option. It doesn't matter why -- the explanation itself is flawed.

Leaving aside the "economically unviable ship" part for a moment, is that really what robject said? I went back and reread this sequence of posts, and I don't see what you do - I think robject is saying that noble patronage in the form of a starship (or a loan for a starship) for these character classes makes sense given that most of these starships have some beneficial, usually economic use.

My question still stands: No matter how good a retired naval commander's reputation and connections may be, why would you expect him to receive a starship as a mustering-out benefit? The closest I can get would be the example of the Hunter's safari ship, but even that's still driven by economics.

Let me turn the question around: what sort of starship would you see as a mustering out benefit for an ex-Navy character? I could - by dint of an exceedingly long stretch - see a mercenary cruiser for an ex-Army or ex-Marine character, on the presumption that these characters are going to become merc leaders. So do we award patrol cruisers to ex-Navy characters on the assumption that they'll become privateers? That's as close as I can get, on the assumption that a starship awarded as a mustering out benefit is expected to have some sort of economic justification inherent in it.

And to answer rancke's argument from earlier in the thread, where it comes up in CT LBB canon, starship loans are handed by a "bank." However, there is a great deal more that is stated or implied about the way of things in the Imperium beyond what's in LBB2, leading me to believe that Sigg Odra is justified in extending the concept of "the bank" to include noble patronage.

Originally posted by thrash:
This is specifically the problem at issue: in fact, under the current rules, virtually all merchant starships are not economically viable, and therefore "good credit and successful trading" is not sufficient to explain where they come from. I suggest that this implies a necessary adjustment to the rules; robject and others insist that sponsorship is a reasonable alternative, and therefore the rules do not need adjustment.

Until very recently I held a similar view about the economics of the type A2, but I've come around on my thinking. I believe it is possible to create a sound business plan based on speculation that would justify the loan necessary for an Empress Marava-class far trader. I don't believe that an "adjustment to the rules" is really necessary in this case.

 

[Black Globe Generator]

Originally posted by thrash:
As soon as you have to invoke another factor to explain the differences between merchants and naval personnel, you have invalidated robject's example. He implied that trust and noble patronage were sufficient in themselves to explain why merchants received an otherwise economically unviable ship as a mustering out benefit. That explanation leads to the contradiction that those characters most likely to have the trust and connections to acquire a ship do not have that option. It doesn't matter why -- the explanation itself is flawed.

Leaving aside the "economically unviable ship" part for a moment, is that really what robject said? I went back and reread this sequence of posts, and I don't see what you do - I think robject is saying that noble patronage in the form of a starship (or a loan for a starship) for these character classes makes sense given that most of these starships have some beneficial, usually economic use.

My question still stands: No matter how good a retired naval commander's reputation and connections may be, why would you expect him to receive a starship as a mustering-out benefit? The closest I can get would be the example of the Hunter's safari ship, but even that's still driven by economics.

Let me turn the question around: what sort of starship would you see as a mustering out benefit for an ex-Navy character? I could - by dint of an exceedingly long stretch - see a mercenary cruiser for an ex-Army or ex-Marine character, on the presumption that these characters are going to become merc leaders. So do we award patrol cruisers to ex-Navy characters on the assumption that they'll become privateers? That's as close as I can get, on the assumption that a starship awarded as a mustering out benefit is expected to have some sort of economic justification inherent in it.

And to answer rancke's argument from earlier in the thread, where it comes up in CT LBB canon, starship loans are handed by a "bank." However, there is a great deal more that is stated or implied about the way of things in the Imperium beyond what's in LBB2, leading me to believe that Sigg Odra is justified in extending the concept of "the bank" to include noble patronage.

Originally posted by thrash:
This is specifically the problem at issue: in fact, under the current rules, virtually all merchant starships are not economically viable, and therefore "good credit and successful trading" is not sufficient to explain where they come from. I suggest that this implies a necessary adjustment to the rules; robject and others insist that sponsorship is a reasonable alternative, and therefore the rules do not need adjustment.

Until very recently I held a similar view about the economics of the type A2, but I've come around on my thinking. I believe it is possible to create a sound business plan based on speculation that would justify the loan necessary for an Empress Marava-class far trader. I don't believe that an "adjustment to the rules" is really necessary in this case.

 

[Anthony]

Originally posted by Black Globe Generator:
Until very recently I held a similar view about the economics of the type A2, but I've come around on my thinking. I believe it is possible to create a sound business plan based on speculation that would justify the loan necessary for an Empress Marava-class far trader.

Essentially, speculative trade is just like cargo transport, except that the ship's owner also owns the cargo. If you restructure the business to divide it into a 'speculation' business and a 'transport' business, and then assume the speculation business is paying the transport business, you discover that the speculative business is paying the transport business on a roughly per-parsec rate.

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by Black Globe Generator:
And to answer rancke's argument from earlier in the thread, where it comes up in CT LBB canon, starship loans are handed by a "bank." However, there is a great deal more that is stated or implied about the way of things in the Imperium beyond what's in LBB2, leading me to believe that Sigg Odra is justified in extending the concept of "the bank" to include noble patronage.

Except that there are actually two qustions involved. One is "Why would a bank loan money for buying something very portable to someone who doesn't have any collateral?". The other is: "Why would a bank loan money to someone without a sound business plan?" Saying that some wealthy individual co-signs for the loan because he trusts the PC may answer the first question (even if it has huge implications that are not even hinted at anywhere in the original rules), but it doesn't answer the second one: "Why would anyone co-sign a loan to someone who doesn't have a sound business plan?"


Hans

 

[robject]

Originally posted by rancke:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by robject:
Using straight Book 2, what are the passenger and freight numbers from Regina to Rhylanor?

I don't think Book 2 provides any way to estimate passenger and freight numbers between any worlds that are more than one jump apart. How about a total guesstimate? Let's say one potential passenger per day (on the average), and let's further say that you can't expect them to wait for your departure if going by Al Morai would get them there faster. Does that sound reasonable?

Hans </font>[/QUOTE]I don't know either. Under certain circumstance, I'd be tempted to use Book 2 or Book 7 straight, which would be unacceptably impossible to build a business plan around: Cr10,000 for high passage from Rhylanor to Regina, Cr1000 per ton. Eeek!

 

[mike wightman]

Originally posted by robject:
I'm not trying to explain why some get ships and some don't; I'm suggesting noble patronage is one of the possible explanations why a character gets awarded a ship.

And I completely agree with you - I happen to think it fits the original CT Imperial nobles paradigm better than some reliance on a business plan model influenced by 20th century economic theory - not that I'm saying that a business plan isn't a good thing to have to convince the noble of the velue of your endeavour

As a referee, I can see a pirate being entrusted a corsair by a noble -- an evil noble, perhaps -- for the sake of privateering. It's one of several possible reasons, others being his own wiles, or booty from a rival gang, or just a new product from an Evil Pirate Shipyard.

A belter could be entrusted to a seeker by a patron who considers the character lucky enough to find a good strike for his noble house.

It's not just the nobles that offer patronage though. The megacorporations may well sponsor private individuals - especially within the territory of their rivals.
One man's pirate is another man's privateer
Trade war is piracy by another name - read the Traveller Adventure for a reminder of how brutal these could be

It is my considered opinion that piracy exists in the Imperium as a reseult of noble rivalry, megacorp trade war, and planetary competition.

 

[rancke]

Originally posted by robject:
Under certain circumstance, I'd be tempted to use Book 2 or Book 7 straight, which would be unacceptably impossible to build a business plan around: Cr10,000 for high passage from Rhylanor to Regina, Cr1000 per ton. Eeek!

I'm sorry, I don't get you at all. Regina and Rhylanor are 10 parsecs apart. Even using jump-6, it would be at least Cr20,000 for high passage and Cr2000 for freight. (With jump-1 it would be Cr100,000 for high passage).


Hans

 

[robject]

Originally posted by rancke:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by robject:
Under certain circumstance, I'd be tempted to use Book 2 or Book 7 straight, which would be unacceptably impossible to build a business plan around: Cr10,000 for high passage from Rhylanor to Regina, Cr1000 per ton. Eeek!

I'm sorry, I don't get you at all. Regina and Rhylanor are 10 parsecs apart. Even using jump-6, it would be at least Cr20,000 for high passage and Cr2000 for freight. (With jump-1 it would be Cr100,000 for high passage).


Hans </font>[/QUOTE]Hans, thank you! Yes, that was a howling error on my part. My brain's not all here today.

EDIT If Joe Trader can do it in 5 jumps, does that mean he gets to charge Cr50,000 per high passage? I don't know.

 

[mike wightman]

Originally posted by thrash:
I asserted that a Type A2 far trader must make, on average, Cr1915 per revenue ton per voyage to break even with its expenses

Which it can easily do by speculating over the year.
Providing you have enough starting capital to finance your first few purchases, then speculative trade as outlined in LBB2 is more than capable of generating the revenue you need.