Dealing with Lockdown

[Grav_Moped]

You can't get more social isolation than in deep freeze.

Interesting question is whether the Slow Drug (and Fast) effects all organisms, or just humans, in which case, there might be quite a number of surprises at the end of that cruise.

How to fast-forward through a two-week quarantine:
- Put the patient on IV nutrition (plus high-calorie nasogastric feeding)
- Place in a medically-induced coma
- Administer Medical Slow Drug*
- Place patient in an ice bath to avoid heat stress injury

Basic version: this runs through the two-week quarantine in a few hours. If they survive, they're either uninfected or beat the disease in that time.

Advanced version: the patient's immune system runs at high speed too, while the infection doesn't. Better survival chance, fast recovery. Might not work for viruses without a handwave, would probably work for bacterial infections. Then again, there's Medical Drug for that (and the writeup for Medical Drug explicitly mentions using it in conjunction with Medical Fast Drug, too).

Grimdark version: on a bad roll, the infection gets accelerated faster than the victim's immune system. Bummer.

*the names are reversed from their metabolic effects since they're named after the user's subjective experience. "Slow" speeds up reflexes and metabolism, so the user sees the world seeming to slow down.

 

[McPerth]

Interesting question is whether the Slow Drug (and Fast) effects all organisms, or just humans, in which case, there might be quite a number of surprises at the end of that cruise.

Really interesting a question, you can bet...

My take:

On viric infections, as the own cells are the ones that reproduce the viri, it's likely to also speed (or slow) their reproduction, and so their effect, the disease keepin with the metabolism relative speed.

For other infections (bacteriae, fungi or protozoos), it depends on if the drug also affects them or not. If it does, the result would be like the one for viri, otherwise, the effect would that the parasite would keep its speed while the patient will change it.

In the case of fast drug, this would mean the infection would grow at the same speed while the body will react at a slower one, do probably aggravating the infection.

Of course, in this case, slow drug will have the opposite effect, probably allowing the speeded body to produce antibodies (or recover White blood cells) at a quicker pace than infection to increase....

 

[whartung]

hey, great game scenario - plague ship! you're on a jump liner that discovers one day after jump that some passenger has brought aboard a serious plague, and all the passengers freak out - social distancing in-hull, toilet paper thievery, buffet line rationing, cheese and cracker hoarding, scapegoating, vigilantes, witch trials. and then you finally arrive and the nightmare is over - only to find the destination port won't allow you to dock and it all begins again. sounds great.

Actually, the twist at the end is that after the party has taken whatever measures necessary to isolate and stabilize the ship, you arrive at the planet, only to find the disease has proceeded you. The highport, downport, and planet is fully engulfed in total societal chaos with evidence it's somehow expanding to the outer system. When you arrive you're bombarded with pleas to board your ship to escape it.

 

[McPerth]

hey, great game scenario - plague ship! you're on a jump liner that discovers one day after jump that some passenger has brought aboard a serious plague, and all the passengers freak out - social distancing in-hull, toilet paper thievery, buffet line rationing, cheese and cracker hoarding, scapegoating, vigilantes, witch trials. and then you finally arrive and the nightmare is over - only to find the destination port won't allow you to dock and it all begins again. sounds great.

Another one, based on the Interstellar wars setting, would be to find onself on a Vilani planet just stuck by a pandemic brought by the Solomani (be it flu, chickenpox, measles, or whatever)...

 

[willtron3030]

Actually, the twist at the end is that after the party has taken whatever measures necessary to isolate and stabilize the ship, you arrive at the planet, only to find the disease has proceeded you.

The liner arrives to discover the next mainworld is already in the outbreak stage of the same disease, and a megacorp lab in-system has a potential cure... that requires survivors of the late stage of the disease as a raw material.

Some citizens of power and influence would like the records to show that the arriving plague ship had no survivors -- eventually.

They don't want the records to show that the disease was not responsible for all the fatalities.

 

[Condottiere]

 

[Sifu Blackirish]

the world has come to me...

Almost no one on these boards knows me on other social media. I am an old man who was married for 32 years, now divorced for 6. I grew up alone and did not like it. These days, I have taken a path of solitude and reflection, just as monks did back in the day.

What others are calling torture, i call glorious isolation.

I managed to escape the big city [Boise, Idaho] and have moved into the mountains with my sister's family. It is about a 20 mile drive to town so we are relatively isolated. Idaho was under a 21-day shutdown order before the April 30th extension. A lot of walkers and bike riders to Lucky Peak Dam [5 miles] and many bike riders taking on the hills to a low mountain peak [15 miles]. There is enough land out here that our little group of houses are relatively isolated from the road and other developments, so we can safely get out of the house.

Yes, definitely keep in touch with those you care about on social media or a phone call. Be prepared for internet outages by finding some solo game material. Do not panic, we will get through this.

 

[flykiller]

Do not panic

given that .9 of the deaths from this "plague" are people 70+ years old, and .5 at 80+, not much to panic about. but hey, great additions to the plague ship concept, and putting it in the vilani collapse timeframe would be entirely period - in fact there would have been a lot of that, most of the second imperium stuff seems to gloss over that aspect.

 

[vegas]

It's more like 80% are 70+, but point taken. Nonetheless, the 20% of fatalities that are 50-70 is probably the relevant range for healthy percentage of our posters (myself included).

Then there is the acute problem of running out of ICU beds which is hitting New York now. In a couple of weeks the shortage will be measured in the 10Ks nationwide. When that happens, you don't want to be severely ill regardless of your age or the cause.

So stay safe and well everyone. Enjoy some more gaming!

 

[whartung]

given that .9 of the deaths from this "plague" are people 70+ years old, and .5 at 80+, not much to panic about.

Unless you're over 70, or have loved ones that are over 70.

See, that's the key point.

Just because an individual is not likely to succumb, does not mean that they aren't a potential vector to someone who may well be likely or compromised.

 

[CaptRet]

And in addition to the number of deaths, latest CDC figures indicate almost 40% of those hospitalized due to covid-19 are 25 - 54 years old. So even though they may not die at the same rates as those over 65, it is a serious illness and these younger patients are taking up medical resources and health professionals' time which adversely affects the hospitals' ability to give medical care to even critical noncovid-19 patients (heart attacks, strokes, accidents, etc. etc. etc.). So the socially responsible thing to do is to stay home and avoid becoming a case or spreading the disease. Furthermore, there is more research being done on whether those who survive the disease suffer permanent lung capacity loss.

 

[Timerover51]

given that .9 of the deaths from this "plague" are people 70+ years old, and .5 at 80+, not much to panic about.

I believe that Marc is over 70, based on when he was in Vietnam.

 

[CaptRet]

This from Science Times, that doctors in Hong Kong have found some survivors suffering reduced lung capacity (so even younger individuals should try to avoid catching it for their own health's sake):

Recovering From the Virus
Some patients who recovered from the coronavirus are reportedly experiencing 20%-30% less lung function. The Hong Kong Hospital authorities have found that while observing the first batch of patients who recovered from the disease.

There were about 12 patients that first recovered from the novel coronavirus and two to three of them are unable to function as they had before getting infected, said Dr. Owen Tsang Tak-yin a medical doctor of the Infectious Disease Center at Princess Margaret Hospital in Kwai Chung.

Those recovered patients are experiencing shortness of breath when they walk a bit more quickly. Tsang suggested some cardiovascular activities that can help improve lung capacity, like swimming.

Lung scans of the other nine people suggest that they are suffering from organ damage. But according to him, it had yet to be determined whether they will also suffer the hardening of lung tissues or the pulmonary fibrosis which will prevent the lung to function properly.

Although it is too early yet to establish the long-term effects of COVID-19, some seemingly frosted glass or "ground glass" in the organs of those nine patients were found during the CT scan conducted on them. The Business Insider's Aria Bendrix reported that this is a phenomenon wherein fluid builds up in the lungs and can be seen as white patches.

 

[McPerth]

One important thing: this is not a flu.

We have vaccines and treatment for flu, but none of those are worth a dime for SARS-COV-2. Also death rate seems te be quite higher than it appeared at the begining (Spain is having about 10% letality).

Italy has needed over 4 weks to stabilize situation, and Spain seems to go the same way, in both cases with severe confinement of the people.

I hate to say, but US is just begining, and you'll need several weeks of severe movement restrictions to stop it, and expect your hospitals to be overcrowded in the meanwhile.

Of course, this will be not good for economy, and economical effects will also be severe...

 

[flykiller]

this is not a flu

actually there appears to be several different bugs in play. in my opinion there is some symmetric bio-retaliation going on.

economical effects will also be severe...

10 million new unemployed just these first two weeks. "flattening the curve" is gonna flatten a whole lotta other things.

 

[Grav_Moped]

actually there appears to be several different bugs in play. in my opinion there is some symmetric bio-retaliation going on.

It is true that there are a few variants of COVID-19. They are functionally identical, though, and will almost certainly each will be vulnerable to the same vaccine once it is found. None of the variants show the genetic hallmarks of having been engineered.

10 million new unemployed just these first two weeks. "flattening the curve" is gonna flatten a whole lotta other things.

Very true. Unfortunately, very necessary. The US missed its chance to contain the pandemic here, and now we're forced to pursue control until a vaccine is found, tested, and distributed. Or until everybody gets it and either recovers with (temporary?) immunity, or dies.

The best way to weaponize a pandemic is to spread the idea into your adversary's nation that the disease isn't that severe and encourage opposition to and defiance of containment measures. Insidiously, this can be done by amplifying messaging from legitimate (misguided or cynical, but legitimate) domestic opposition to those measures while hiding the malicious origin of the signal-boosting.

 

[McPerth]

IMHO, the main cause of the lack of preparation this outbreak has taken most the world is quite simple: the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic was too mild.

In 2009 effects were expected more severe, and the world as a whole took a self complacency look at it, instead of taking lessons from it. The fact there were not a few voices claiming as missmanagement the money invested by many a government in preapartion for it (that then eppared as unnecessary) may also made them more cautious in spending money again this time.

All of this in unfortunate, but quite understandable.

So, IMHO, not really anyone to bleme, and just hope we can react son enough and learn the lessons this time...

OTOH, countries that were aslo affected by SARS (2003) and MERS (2012-now) seem (not surprise there) to have been better prepared...

 

[Condottiere]

We've had plagues before, and the factor you might be looking for is the ease of travel/transmission, both by the virus, and the carrier.

Globalization has been present, in one form or another, since we've established trade routes in the Bronze Age, though not the capability of intercontinental travel within twenty four hours.

 

[McPerth]

We've had plagues before, and the factor you might be looking for is the ease of travel/transmission, both by the virus, and the carrier.

True, but last pandemic we had (not counting 2009 H1N1 one, and discarding AIDS, as it's transmission way is not through air) was in 1957 (Assian flu).

BTW, I guess some of this board members might remember it. Were measures taken so severe?

Globalization has been present, in one form or another, since we've established trade routes in the Bronze Age, though not the capability of intercontinental travel within twenty four hours.

True again, but, even so, the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic (one of the worst ever remembered) spread quite quickly. Its second wave (the deadliest one) spread worldwide in a few months (main effect was, IIRC, in October-December 1918)...

 

[vegas]

IMHO, the main cause of the lack of preparation this outbreak has taken most the world is quite simple: the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic was too mild.

I'd offer a much more cynical view, and unfortunately its one that is supported in political science.

In free societies, politicians are not rewarded for preparation (which goes unseen and costs money), but are rewarded for leadership in reaction (which is broadcast to constituents leading to increased popularity, cf. Trump and New York Governor Cuomo increased approval ratings.) Consequently free societies will have a tendency to systematically underinvest in preparation.

In authoritarian regimes, events such as the pandemic are oportunities for additional justification and consolidation of power. (cf. Russia, Hungary, PRC). Consequently authoritarian regimes will have a tendency to systematically underinvest in preparation too.

Of course there will be exceptions, but delivering emergency readiness is difficult engender or sustain.