Yes, assuming the system is populated by pure in system ships, a non-jump capable ship is, ton for ton, more bang/buck than a jump capable ship.
But it's not clear that this compensates for the vast advantage that the attacker has. The defender needs quantity, not quality. If there is a single main world, and that's the only target, then the defender can make it quite expensive for the attacker, by massing his defenses there, but can't actually protect the target.
The key thing to note is that the technique essentially works for any fixed target (i.e. anything in a stable, known orbit) within the system, and the attackers have the benefit of knowing the target(s) whereas the defenders do not.
The vector is fairly easy to plot once the ship pops in system, to give a hint what the target may be, particularly if it's a lonely target (say an industrial platform in the asteroid belt), but if it's a planet based target, the vector doesn't do much for you -- it could be most anything on the planet.
If you're having a meeting engagement with the attackers at high speed, the defenders basically get one or two shots at the attackers before they're simply out of range. If the defenders are in range when the ordnance is released, they can choose to try and shoot at that, but since it's deadfall ordnance, things like lasers don't do a whole lot to it. They'd have to kill it before it's final maneuver.
And, of course, this technique works peachy against both military and civilian targets. It does not work well against particularly hardened targets, as it may simply not be that accurate without some terminal guidance.
Regarding actual invasion, you can not invade a planet with large numbers of deep meson sites, you can only blockade it unless your fleet markedly mounts more meson guns than the planet does. If you think ships without J drives are good bang/buck, you should see a meson gun, MFD, and a mount. They're dirt cheap in comparison to a ship. Hardest part is digging the hole.
You can't easily defeat it in detail, as it's very difficult to simply engage some of the mounts on the planet.
But pre-meson mounts, you pretty much don't have any planetary defenses of note on the surface, it would all be in orbit. Missiles would have to crawl from the gravity well, lasers and PA's don't do well in atmosphere. Kind of pointless. Very little bang/buck there.
If the attacker is there to destroy/damage specific fixed targets, then all the defender can to is their very best to make the attack expensive. If the attacker is coming in to the system to "stay", then the only real advantage the defender has early on is potentially quiet, hidden ships, thus hiding its overall strength (at least in ship count).
But if the attacker feels it has reasonably accurate intelligence on the defending fleet, he will simply make the judgement, before battle, whether to even stay and fight at all.
Space combat has not quite, but almost perfect intelligence. You may not be able to detect a quiet ship, but you'll certainly be able to detect a maneuvering ship.
Space combat is also quite mathmatical. The true decision is to engage the ship in to battle at all. After that, there is very little actual skill in involved. Much of it will be very automated, as the reactions and timing necessary are far faster than human reactions. Someone needs to push the "fire ship" button, but it's accuracy and such are mostly based on the system doing the actual firing.
So, morale is important, but I think less so than normal, terrestrial combat. Less human intervention means the human condition has less effect overall.
Weapons are line of site, line of site is effectively beyond weapon range, and weapons are quite lethal. So, it's pretty straightfoward with reasonable intelligence of the opposing force to know up front "who's going to win, and how much will it cost".
If the answer to that question isn't in the attackers favor (i.e. he won't win, or it will cost too much), he'll simply leave. Why stay? The defenders know where he is, and roughly what he has. The attacker has very little surprise over time vs the defenders (assuming the defender is not manuevering all of their ships).
Simply put, there is some luck, but not a whole lot of luck in starship combat. It's fairly decisive and you have a good solid estimate before the ships even engage.
If an invasion fleet arrives in system, it will look to its target (say the home world). If the defender is massed there, the fleet determines if it can win or not. If it feels it can at a reasonable cost, it will proceed in system, and perform the attack.
At this point, if the defender has any extra forces that are not at the target, he can choose to deploy them. He will have to do this in time for them to join the defense forces before the attacker arrives. If they do not arrive in time, then it is effectively a second battle with the new defense forces vectoring in against the victorious, but reduced, attacking forces.
This may well destory the attackers, but it will be at a much higher cost to the defense than if it has simply massed all of their ships at the target (assuming that was practical) and detered the attack in the first place.
Let's perform silly math here. Assume the attacking fleet has 30 ships, and the defense has 2 groups of 20 ships, one at the target, the other hidden.
For simplicity sake, we'll assume that combat is 1-1 tradeoff. So, the attackers will lose 20 ships, and the defenders will lose 20 ships. It's a contrived ratio, but overall there is SOME ratio with large fleets, this just makes the math easy.
So, the attackers destroys the defending fleet, has 10 ships left, and the defenders reaction force engages and destroys the attacker, with 10 defense ships left.
If all 40 defense ships were at the target, or if the attacker knew about them, he may well have not attacked at all. Seeing only 20 ships, he felt it was worth the cost. If he saw 40, he may have turned tail and run. If his task were to simply reduce the defenders fleet, he may have attacked anyway.
But that's the kind of calculus that will take place for fleet combat IMHO. Very clinical, reasonbly accurate, particularly if you have familiarity of the opposing force makeup.
That said, I'd argue that most fleet actions outcomes are known in advance.
If the task is to destroy a fixed target, that is easier than reducing an opposing fleet, and much cheaper. The opposing fleet can't prevent it (unless is simply vastly outnumbers the attacker).
If you want to defend a home world, park a fleet on it that will deter the attacking fleet.