Immigrants taking over

[rancke]

I'm working on the history of a quiet, bucolic world of 60+ million placid farmers who has been living at TL5 for centuries. About a century ago, immigrants from a nearby (two jump-3) TL8 world began trickling in. They were mostly wealthy people who could afford to buy farms and factories and quickly established themselves in the upper middle and even lower upper classes. As their numbers grew, they gradually became more and more involved in the running of the world, until eventually they took it over, more or less peacefully. By the present day, the orginal population has been reduced to second-class citizens. Sort of like the British in India. Never promoted to a situation where they give orders to an Immi (derived from 'immigrant'), the two groups never socialize, etc. Or perhaps more like Normans and Saxons shortly after the Conquest, I haven't quite made up my mind on that.

I say 'more or less peacefully'. There's going to be SOME violence, I think. Taking over the reins from the original rulers would be tricky. But even more than that, the last stage of the process, the marginalization of the original population, is going to generate a lot of resentment, both with the original upper class and with the general population. So what I'm looking for is some guesstimate of how many Immis there would have to be before such a takeover would be plausible. One in a hundred? One in fifty? One in ten? One in five? More (surely not)? Could less than one in a hundred do it?

I'm not sure how much the Immis would make use of imported TL8 equipment, since they'd still have to pay for it.

I'd like to keep the Immi population as small as reasonable without snapping any belief suspenders.


Hans

 

[Vargr]

In the real world there are multiple examples of immigrants becoming a nation-changing political force when they are circa 10% of the total population. This, even when said immigrants are generally poor and ill-educated in comparison with the natives.

The "Immis" in your example have acess to higher TL than the natives, so "taking over" would be even easier. I'd say if they where 5%, or even less, of the total population that would suffice for them to achieve primacy in a couple of generations.

For a more precise number, more data is needed. For example: how is the native population distributed around the planet? If 60,000,000 people are living in a relatively small geographical area you would need N Immis to take over; but if they are scattered around thousands of miles of isolated hammlets and the planetary center of government is a single town of 10,000, then even a very small handful of Immis could take over politically.

So I would say 1 in 20 largest Immi:Native ratio you would need, in the worst case scenario, but the geopolitical realities of the world might bring it down to 1:100.

 

[atpollard]

I agree with the 1:20 ratio.

Looking at population distribution, if 90% of the native population lives in small rural communities and 10% of the native population is concentrated in the main city (in the pre-immigrant condition), then political power may be concentrated in the city. In this case, the immigrants would need to number only 5% of the city population (or 1 in 200 of the total planetary population) to gain control of the government.

[EDIT: delete Modern Example]

Politically astute Immigrants could quietly ferment factionalism or regionalism among the natives to discourage them from acting in a united manner. Then a unified Immigrant Block in the government would weild disproportionate influence over the hoplessly divided majority.

[EDIT: delete Modern Example]

 

[atpollard]

Traveller offers another fascinating possibility - the Starport/Startown.

It is quite plausible for the natives to control everything outside of a small geographic area surrounding the Starport. Yet if the Immigrants arrived at the starport, were hired by the SPA (Imperial of Local based on your universe) for their superior technical skills, settled their families in Startown ... then the Immigrants could quickly gain control of all imports and exports as wel as establish a single, semi-autonimous TL 8 city on an otherwise TL 5 world.

The Trade imbalance alone should generate stagering wealth for the Immigrants. Try paying for a TL 8 curative cancer treatment with TL 5 foodstuffs and see who comes out ahead in that deal. Native Farmers sell foodstuffs and cloth on an Agricultural world to Immigrant Brokers/Traders (who export it to an industrial world for resale).

Think of the Merchant Princes of Italy and the China Trade during the Renaissance. They never tried to gain the throne of France or England. They just owned all of the banks and financial industries, paid for with exclusive trade rights to exotic goods.

 

[kafka47]

Also, it would depend if the Immigrants had backing from the Imperial Ministry of Colonization... for the Imperium has very powerful ministries akin to the old USSR. Although, they do not have direct power on any given world they carry soft power with a big stick.

The new immigrants would be asked to accommodate the pre-existing civilization but as they have the higher tech more and more Imperial services would located in their area and then there would be a process of internal immigration...at which point, the immigrants' might try to stage a coup with tacit Imperial backing.

It would also depend where the local nobility have their interests and how well the local nobility has interfaced with the Imperium. IMTU, the nobility are the transmission belt between the Imperium and the local government. So the numbers are not that important...which is why so many Traveller governments end up being dictatorships.

 

[aramis]

Just a reminder: Real World "modern" politics (generally, WWII and later) and religion are not permitted to be discussed due to volatility. Even pointing out examples is problematic, as people oft want to refute the exemplars.

 

[Icosahedron]

It was pointed out in another thread via RW examples that a ratio of 1:20 is sufficient to crush a hostile population under a military dictatorship, so I reckon you'd need far fewer for the 'bloodless coup' you suggest. I imagine that 1:100 would be more than enough, probably 1:1000, or if you believe the New World Order conspiracy theorists, even 1:1000000 or less.
Look at it this way, how many people run your RL country? In all probability, the people who actually make the decisions that matter could be counted on your fingers and toes.

And that's without a tech advantage.
The Immis will control communication (satellites, computers & personal comms), and as an earlier poster pointed out, could easily control trade through the starport.

If the populace are docile and you ensure they have their noses on the grindstone all day, you can do anything with them. I don't need to cite examples - look out the window. My best guess would be somewhere between 1: 1000000 and 1:1000.

Another query:
You state that your native population has been at TL5 for centuries. It depends on exactly where you draw the line for TL5, but IMTU, TL5 is similar to WW1. It's post industrial revolution, in fact you have production lines (even if only for producing farm machinery). I can't see them failing to progress, unless there are some severe outside constraints (such as severe lack of mineral resources). I could see them remaining on the primitive side of industrial revolution for centuries, but once they've taken that step, I can't imagine anything holding them back prior to the 'digital revolution' of TL7.

 

[mike wightman]

A few questions spring to mind.

How are these immis maintaining their wealth on their new home?

How does their world of origin feel about so much wealth being transferred off planet?

What's happened to the native upper classes?

To the average placid farmer does it matter who is in charge?

Why did these wealthy TL8 immis make the trip in the first place, and why opt for a lower standard of living?

 

[jatay3]

Read Amy Chu's "World on Fire" for examples. Those are often "real world, post world war two examples" so I won't go into detail. Nontheless it is a good place to go.

 

[Peter Schutze]

About a century ago, immigrants .... quickly established themselves in the upper middle and even lower upper classes .... more or less peacefully.

a century is a couple of generations which means a simple and most likely solution to the question .... pick a small percentage and assume the immi's are mostly "mixed race" with the more offworld ancestry being usually higher status among the ruling class .... who naturally consider themself a seperate class/ race/ nationality

basically the situation everywhere in south america until well past their independence in the 1800's and repeated throughout history wherever the "natives" werent "eliminated" as a "civilisation"

* not making any judgement about any of these words or concepts

 

[Sanjuro]

There is an example of an independent nation being invaded by a larger country (not even a close neighbour), exploited as a naval base, then gradually the (ethnically distinct) population are outnumbered by incomers, the incomers have children, and now (even if the invading power felt like giving in to the very small independence movement) the incomers' descendents form a large majority who would vote to stay with the "parent" country.
Any guesses?
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Hawaii.

 

[aramis]

There is an example of an independent nation being invaded by a larger country (not even a close neighbour), exploited as a naval base, then gradually the (ethnically distinct) population are outnumbered by incomers, the incomers have children, and now (even if the invading power felt like giving in to the very small independence movement) the incomers' descendents form a large majority who would vote to stay with the "parent" country.
Any guesses?
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Hawaii.

Hawaii was a British domination before being peacefully ceded to the US. And it's subjugation by the UK wasn't even terribly violent. It was subjugated by implied threat of violence, rather than violence. And the mainlanders don't comprise even a plurality; Ethnic Chinese number as many and possibly more.

 

[jatay3]

It's hard to think of Independent countries for that. It would sound like Puerto Rico except that was taken from the Spanish Empire as spoil, rather then being previously independent.

 

[snapshotbygdw]

Depends how load they shout

When trying to assess numbers needed to tip power away from indigenous population it is often the case that a very small but focused, active and vocal group can often seem to represent a much more popular point of view or opinion simply because the opposing masses are divided or simply lack the motivation to register their objections. One common tactic is to imply that anyone who doesn't object is automatically in agreement. I would imagine this scenario would lend itself well to the above tactic: the incomers could use the local populations bovine-like domestication and rural enertia against it.

 

[shadowcat20]

Just to throw in a hook, Was there a heredity nobility on planet before the Immis? You would have the middleclass lording it over the lowerclass while cooking under their hats about having to kowtow to the nobility. Knowing that if they displace the nobility then the situation will go high order (BOOM!!!) quickly. At this point thay may have insulated the nobility from the common folk so they have no clue about the excesses. Lots of plot hook there.

 

[Starviking]

Hawaii was a British domination before being peacefully ceded to the US. And it's subjugation by the UK wasn't even terribly violent. It was subjugated by implied threat of violence, rather than violence. And the mainlanders don't comprise even a plurality; Ethnic Chinese number as many and possibly more.

Sorry, not correct. Hawaii was an independent kingdom before American and European residents overthrew the monarchy towards the end of the 19th Century and got the US to annex the islands. Some sources state that Hawaii was a British Protectorate until 1843, but that seems hard to pin down on the net. What is certain is that Hawaii was definitely independent from November 28 1843 when the Joint Anglo-French Proclamation renounced any claims to the islands and confirmed Hawaii as an independent state.

 

[aramis]

Sorry, not correct. Hawaii was an independent kingdom before American and European residents overthrew the monarchy towards the end of the 19th Century and got the US to annex the islands. Some sources state that Hawaii was a British Protectorate until 1843, but that seems hard to pin down on the net. What is certain is that Hawaii was definitely independent from November 28 1843 when the Joint Anglo-French Proclamation renounced any claims to the islands and confirmed Hawaii as an independent state.

Independent... yeah, right. The local royals, while officially independent, were still supported by british advisors, and still serviced RN fleets... the on-paper independence was in almost all ways a farce.

 

[Starviking]

Independent... yeah, right. The local royals, while officially independent, were still supported by british advisors, and still serviced RN fleets... the on-paper independence was in almost all ways a farce.

Any evidence to back this claim up? Or even evidence that it was a "British domination" before being peacefully ceded to the US?

 

[E.D.Quibell]

Any evidence to back this claim up? Or even evidence that it was a "British domination" before being peacefully ceded to the US?

Hawaii is a bit of a strange one, and where the distinction between thearetical and practical is particulary contradictory.

It was more of a British Protectorate (ish) until 1843, even to the exstend of incorportaed the union jack into it's flag to show it was under the protection of the British. It became a British colony for a short time in 1843 I believe before reverting back to a protectorate (ish) until the US came a calling.

Never a British Dominion in the same way that Canada or Australia were, however it certainly was a recongnised part of British influance in the British Empire.

Best regards,

Ewan

 

[Blue Ghost]

Can we apply any of this to the Vargr?