Is gold worth anything in the 3I?

[Straybow]

I presume that's metric tons. That's 800 metric tons for the Seeker, assuming 3 metric tons to the cubic meter. ~$92,000, or whatever that translates to in credits. That actually sounds quite profitable, depending on how long it takes to fill up, get it somewhere, and come back to start filling up again.

This is an interesting discussion.

In 1977 the Cr was about $1 (CPI was about 60). Now it's about $4 (CPI about 240), so that makes the Seeker load only worth Cr23k.

 

[Blue Ghost]

In 1977 the Cr was about $1 (CPI was about 60). Now it's about $4 (CPI about 240), so that makes the Seeker load only worth Cr23k.

What is CPI and how are you figuring its price and inflation thereof?

 

[Enoki]

Whether it's 8 - 9,000, 23,000 or 92,000 Icr, a seeker / mining scout vessel hauling about 20 to 25 tons of ore is a money maker from asteroids. And remember-- That's just 4 elements out of many.

 

[G. Kashkanun Anderson]

What is CPI and how are you figuring its price and inflation thereof?

Consumer Price Index. It's how the US Bureau of Labor Statistics measures adjustments for inflation, based on the prices of goods and services in 1982.

The current value is about 253, based (again) on a 1982 value of 100.

 

[Blue Ghost]

Thank you. I'll have to mull it over before giving a proper response. Something seems off about the comparison, but I'm not sure what.

 

[Straybow]

The Credit was intended to be ¼ hour of base labor. Minimum wage was $2.30, so MM must have considered the base labor rate to be $4 to put the dollar and the Credit at parity. Federal minimum is now $7.25, with some states going up to $11 or $12. Quadrupling to $4 seems to line up with both minimum wage and CPI pretty well. (I see no need to be more precisely proportional with respect to either.)
__________

I can't seem to find that Nat Geo article mentioned by Enoki. If Earth rock is worth $7400/100T and asteroid ore is only worth $11,578/100T that doesn't seem like a great deal. Something is wrong with those figures. Is that $74/T actual recoverable minerals, or just detectable concentrations which might not be fully recoverable? Same question for asteroid ore.

A glance at wikipedia says, "A small 10-meter S-type asteroid contains about 650,000 kg (1,433,000 lb) of metal with 50 kg (110 lb) in the form of rare metals like platinum and gold." A 10 m sphere has a volume of 523 m³. So it seems they're assuming over 1200 kg/m³ of metal, including almost 0.1 kg/m³ of precious metal. That seems high considering the low density and low metallic content of S-types.

I found a 2001 paper that assigned concentrations in an M-type asteroid as high as 35 ppm for Pt and only 0.5 ppm for Au. Total precious metals account for about 101 ppm, which would be about 0.1 kg/ton of metal. That's in line with the ratio from the above wikipedia figures.

The 2001 paper seems to be based on papers presented by J. S. Kargel back in the 1996 and 1997. I don't know where they get their data, since 0.5 ppm of Au is only a little richer than sedimentary rocks in the upper crust of the Earth.

In any case, most of known space has been mined for thousands of years. Megacorps and larger planetary kilocorps (is that a thing?) would snatch up all the M-types in the early centuries. Belters would be working the S-types for many centuries afterwards. It would be exceedingly rare to find a relatively enriched asteroid that had been overlooked.

 

[Enoki]

Here's links to the article.

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/130122-asteroids-mining-space-science/

This is the interactive chart that shows monetary value

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/01/130122-interactive-asteroid-mining-metal-abundance/

The chart has different values that are a bit higher than the original article ones, but the difference is enormous: $85 "Earth" ore v $12,000 and change for asteroid mining.

 

[aramis]

Ok, Cr1000/dT barely make ends meet for J1 to a one parsec destination. Assume the pirate isn't paying a mortgage on his ship (either skipped or hijacked). That can make some money only if there is a haven within a few jumps. So it takes multiple (likely 3 or more) jumps in, multiple jumps out. Now you're stretching the profit out over a couple of months instead of the standard two week trade cycle. Still a non-starter, IMO. Four standard trade cycles with a little bit of spec trade can probably do better with far less risk.



Ok, so the pirates have acquired a J3 merc, mortgage free. Now it's one dead head jump in, and one out. Assume a few days shut down for limited maint service in the engineering section after the jump, also used for finding for a good ore shipment. Then a few days maneuvering to it undetected. That's about a week. Profit is spread out over a four week cycle (including the week at haven for a proper maint service), so it's compared to two trade cycles.


Your haven is only three parsecs away from the hunting grounds, and once the losses get large enough to attract attention somebody comes looking. If the pirates are hitting multiple systems to spread out the losses, all two or three parsecs from the haven, that triangulation increases the chance of being traced. Once found, things get sticky for pirates and harboring facilities. If the haven is farther away, more jumps means thinner profit over time.

Most pirate havens are going to be within a parsec - there's a LOT of real estate given Marc's (and my) default assumption that Oort clouds and Kuiper Belts are not unique to the Sol system. Find a rocky core KBO, drill in, and drop some modular bases; forge some papers, and send it in on a relatively legit freighter.

Note that the major expenses are fuel and mortgage; without the mortgage, a freighter is able to make a lot of money. Of the 211k on the Type A, 155k is the payments. It loses money because of unfilled staterooms... a pure cargo version makes 30K per full 122 Td hold.

I've put a calculation tool in the tools folder: http://travellerrpg.com/tools/shipecon0_2.shtml

 

[whartung]

The Credit was intended to be ¼ hour of base labor. Minimum wage was $2.30, so MM must have considered the base labor rate to be $4 to put the dollar and the Credit at parity. Federal minimum is now $7.25, with some states going up to $11 or $12. Quadrupling to $4 seems to line up with both minimum wage and CPI pretty well. (I see no need to be more precisely proportional with respect to either.)

But there's no reason to do that.

Rather, better to just downscale any modern numbers back to 1982 if you're trying to do any kind of companions, than inflate the credit.

 

[Carlobrand]

I can agree that Core has been heavily mined. I'd even agree that most of settled space between Core and Terra are likely pretty well mined; that area dates from the 1st Imperium. That's not true of the frontier sectors. Spinward Marches has probably had more published about it than any other sector. It's only had an Imperial presence for about a thousand years, and much of it is still unpopulated or lightly populated. Darrians have been there longer but shot themselves in the foot 200 years after founding their confederation, and they still haven't expanded much. Indications are that much of the Marches is still relatively virgin territory.

 

[PVernon]

OK the right thing to do is to change the dollar values back to 1977 dollars. At which point you have converted to Imperial Credits.
The calculation from 2018 dollars to 1977 dollars is multiply by .24.

https://cpiinflationcalculator.com/

I am not sure what date the article in question is using, but the calculator at the link can do 2018 back to 1913 or from any year to any year in that range.

 

[atpollard]

OK the right thing to do is to change the dollar values back to 1977 dollars. At which point you have converted to Imperial Credits.
The calculation from 2018 dollars to 1977 dollars is multiply by .24.

While correct, use with some caution. Certain things have a very different inflation rate than the average and you can get some strange results.

A 1911 Colt cost $22 in 1916 = $81.74 in 1971 (inflation calculator) = Cr 82
(Automatic Pistol = Cr 210)
A 1911 Colt cost $1400 in 2018 = $224.61 in 1971 (inflation calculator) = Cr 225

So how much is a M1911 Pistol? Cr 82 or Cr 225?

 

[kilemall]

OK the right thing to do is to change the dollar values back to 1977 dollars. At which point you have converted to Imperial Credits.
The calculation from 2018 dollars to 1977 dollars is multiply by .24.

https://cpiinflationcalculator.com/

I am not sure what date the article in question is using, but the calculator at the link can do 2018 back to 1913 or from any year to any year in that range.

That's one way to do it, I prefer percentage of economy myself.

 

[atpollard]

That's one way to do it, I prefer percentage of economy myself.

Would you care to elaborate?

 

[Condottiere]

I just times any Credite Imperiale amount by five, or divide current pricing by five.

That's why a supersized bundleed package of ramen noodles would cost two centimes per pack.

As for the Darrians, they may be just better at recycling.

 

[kilemall]

Would you care to elaborate?

I DO care!


Here is the site I use-



https://www.measuringworth.com/calculators/uscompare/


The one I prefer is the Economy Power, that is to say the percentage of GDP the item/work/company/labor would cost relative to everything else at it's time.

 

[atpollard]

I DO care!


Here is the site I use-



https://www.measuringworth.com/calculators/uscompare/


The one I prefer is the Economy Power, that is to say the percentage of GDP the item/work/company/labor would cost relative to everything else at it's time.

Thanks, an interesting link.

So the $22 M1911 Pistol in 1916 would use the GDP for 1916 ($50,717,000,000) and 1971 ($1,164,900,000,000) to get ...

$22 x $1,164,900,000,000 / $50,717,000,000 = $505.31 = Cr 505

and the 2018 M1911 Pistol would cost ...

$1400 x $1,164,900,000,000 / $20,500,600,000,000 = $79.55 = Cr 80

Same issue, only reversed. Now the 1916 gun is more expensive than the 2018 version and neither is close to the Cr 210 'Automatic Pistol' from the rules.

"USE WITH CAUTION" is still the operative word.

 

[kilemall]

Thanks, an interesting link.

So the $22 M1911 Pistol in 1916 would use the GDP for 1916 ($50,717,000,000) and 1971 ($1,164,900,000,000) to get ...

$22 x $1,164,900,000,000 / $50,717,000,000 = $505.31 = Cr 505

and the 2018 M1911 Pistol would cost ...

$1400 x $1,164,900,000,000 / $20,500,600,000,000 = $79.55 = Cr 80

Same issue, only reversed. Now the 1916 gun is more expensive than the 2018 version and neither is close to the Cr 210 'Automatic Pistol' from the rules.

"USE WITH CAUTION" is still the operative word.

Eh, depends on how badly you want to model things vs. just come up with a working number.


Just plug in the two years you want, one being 1977 and one being your baseline year you are pricing, and pick whichever ratio result you like.


A proper economic valuation would have to include factors like the trade characteristics, population and therefore ability to mass produce/scale, cultural/need propensity to produce one item over another, interrelationship of interstellar trade, and the nature of the item itself (maybe a TL5 revolver should be dirt cheap by TL10 if made 'traditionally' with makers that can stamp and assemble a gun in 5 minutes, or maybe it's stupid reliable or chipped for the same price, or it's more an art piece as 'no one makes that anymore').

 

[aramis]

Would you care to elaborate?

There are several ways to calculate the dollar values changes over time. I've seen the following in use

1. Price Index: a bunch of goods prices are indexed over time; the value change for like items is calculated to give a fraction, then those averaged to give the change
2. Fractionals: figure the fraction that $1 represents of one of these; compare year by year
   • Currency in Circulation
   • GDP
   • average income
   • median income

Currency in circulation is problematic - because the currency available fluctuates far more than the prices.
GDP is commonly used. At 1/ 2.0501e13 in 2018, and 1/ 2.082e12 in 1977, the 2018$1 ≅ 1977$0.102
By Average Income: 2016$83,143 vs1977$16,100.00 ... 2016$1 ≅ 1977$0.194


https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543
https://www.multpl.com/us-average-income/table/by-year

 

[Timerover51]

I use three different means to look at prices over time.

If the product was made at some time in the U.S., and I can find a price and a year, I go with the Consumer Price Index Inflation Calculator on the Bureau of Labor Statistics if the date is 1913 or after.

https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm

If during the period after the Civil War to 1913, I go with the value in dollars is equal to 10 times the value in 1982 Dollars and the correct to either today or to 1977. So a Dollar in 1883 would be worth 10 Dollars in 1982.

My other option is to use the difference in the price of gold. Gold was worth in this country around $20 an ounce up to 1934, when it went to $35 Dollars an ounce. I go with Gold being valued at around $1200 an ounce currently, and simply multiply by 60 to get a current price, or by the average yearly value of gold for 1977. I understand that the price of Gold can fluctuate, but those fluctuations tend to average out.

Basically, it is a case of what fits best. If neither looks correct, then I start doing some digging and calculating. The 300 Horsepower Renault engine used in aircraft in World War One cost about $4400 then. Neither the inflation calculator or the Gold value works well on that one, but given the current production of car engines I go with a 50% increase in cost, and assume that the cost to product an equivalent engine now would be about $6600.

A lot depends on what I am trying to price. The old Montgomery Wards, Sears, and Harrod's catalogues come in real handy for around the turn of the 19th Century, circa 1890 to 1900.