Does Traveller remain relevant? Will it attract new people? Or in twenty or thirty years, will I be the only one here, surrounded by the posts of Absent Friends?
Barring some black swan event, you won't be the only one still playing Traveller in twenty years. The detailed answer is below.
Originally, the idea of a highly adaptable system was novel. Today there's dozens to choose from.
Yeah, that's not really what I meant to ask. It's not that I'm doubting whether the Traveller brand has any value. I more meant what is Traveller's place in the current RPG market. What does it have to offer that another space game doesn't?
The whole RPG market has fragmented, what portion of it are you measuring against?
The OSR? D&D 5e, Pathfinder, Edge of Empire, Fantasy Age/Dragon Age, Fate, Savage World, etc? Each of these have carved out a successful community within the hobby. There are some common elements but some that are very different.
Let's go with two pieces of hard data we have, the Orr report which measure the number of Roll 20 games being played and the IVC2 which relies on a survey of retailers.
The IVC2 reports tells us in the fall of 2015 the top RPGs are
http://icv2.com/articles/markets/view/33911/top-5-roleplaying-games-fall-2015
Dungeons & Dragons
Pathfinder
Star Wars
Dragon Age
Fantasy Age
The two Age system are new to the list, typically Shadow Run in there as well. If they released a fuller list I suspect it would be at #6.
Looking at Roll20 we get
http://blog.roll20.net/post/143493281735/the-orr-group-industry-report-q1-2016
D&D 5e
Pathfinder
D&D 3.5
D&D 4e
Warhammer
Star Wars
World of Darkness
Shadow Run
Traveller is buried deep into the list and Star without Number (an OSR game with the same focus as Traveller) has nearly 5 times the number of games being run.
When looking at the numbers for Fantasy Grounds
http://www.enworld.org/forum/conten...-5-Savage-Worlds-then-Star-Wars!#.V0XDGzUrJpg
We see the same top RPGs repeated D&D 5e Pathfinder, Star Wars, except that here we see a strong showing by Savage World. Which makes sense since Savage Worlds is moderately popular and they really push Fantasy Grounds as an important part of their publishing strategy.
All of these games are unlike Traveller. The two popular sci-fi games are Star Wars and Shadowrun. While Traveller can handle Star Wars, it never really supported that sub genre of sci-fi. And Shadowrun is pretty much its own thing now having grown from it roots as Cyberpunk with D&D stuff. Warhammer 40k appears on some list but again Traveller never really supported that heav
So I would conclude that the type of sci-fi that Traveller support and what the Third Imperium represent isn't a that popular of a genre. Because of the reduction in the cost of distribution and publication due to the internet and digital technology that OK. Not ideal but not the death knell it would have been in the 80s and early 90s.
But does the setting draw? Does it still appeal? Or is it too old, too dated? I'm a second generation gamer. I picked up Traveller from my dad. But it's been noted many times that the setting is difficult for new players to appreciate.
Traveller family of RPGs and the Third Imperium setting are middle of the road in terms of popularity in the hobby and the industry. It has several strengths which will ensure its survival over the long haul, and several weaknesses that allow newer games to continually to eclipse it.
The strength of Traveller is that many of the core concepts of the RULES are under the OGL in the form of the Mongoose Traveller SRD. Another is that Far Future has a clear fan use policy that pretty generous for non-commercial projects. And more importantly the classic rules are really just that good and have a timeless appeal. As a setting the Third Imperium is very flexible and remains so despite the thousands of hour writing canon for it.
It has a very enthusiastic fanbase that noted for doing quality work. Like this forum, the errata project, the second survey project, the Traveller Map, the wiki, and so forth and so on.
The weakness of Traveller are Mongoose's pricing vs. the quality of their books, that latest official rules, T5, is a huge voluminous ruleset in a hobby that currently prizes stuff that is lite and lean. That Traveller fragmented among multiple editions of rules along with the fact it is split between those who play Traveller for the rules and those who play Traveller for the Third Imperium.
Recently it doesn't help that we have yet another edition of Traveller in the form of Mongoose 2nd edition, and that initial release of the TAS publishing program contracted third party publishing options instead of expanding them.
But the kicker is that pretty much describes Traveller situation since the sunset of classic Traveller and the initial batch of third party publishers. And it has managed survive to this day so I don't see any of the above as an existential threat however irritating they are at the present.
Is there a way to make things better? Sure, if your goal to get at least the popularity of the OSR Sci-fi clones, then what needs to happen is that classic Traveller rules or more of the Mongoose Rules need to be released in a SRD under the OGL. Either one can be used as a foundation for a much lighter and inexpensive version of Traveller. And if it well-written that would generate more interest in the wider hobby.