Agreed, a good analysis, but I guess the landing of supplies should be better done with grav APCs or armored interface crafts.
If each trooper lands with about half a ton of supplies, they must either leave them in a cache (so mounting a supply base), carry them or abandon them. As they can not carry them (a BD equiped trooper may only carry that much weigth, and a CA equiped one even less), that makes them mostly inmobile, and, as some dispersion is to be expected (as happened with paratroopers in WWII, but to a greater extent), that will produce some clusters of troops arround the supply bases they might mount with those supplies and mostly reverting to defensive hedgehogs where they should be on offensive (IMHO that's he main use for jump troops).
OTOH, if they land in free fall, as HALO troops do, assisted with grav belts to direct the land and to avoid crushing, they will only land with the supplies they can carry, for good and bad, so they wil lbe more supply dependent, but more mobile. ALso I guess the grav belts could aslo be used to direct the fall, so reducing the dispersion problem. If they can expand their beachhead, they can mount a supply base where shuttles could land supplies.
As I envision a jump assault, the main mission of the jump troops is to land and try to expand the beachhead (spacehead? skyhead?) ASAP, to allow follow up troops and supplies to land as seccure as they can, so mobility is paramount in their role, and excess supplies (mostly if there are no vehicles to move them) will be more a hindrance tan a help, at least for the first hours or days of the assault, and after that they are lost anyway if they have not achieved the beachead.
APCs may also land with supplies and some support equipment, taking the role the
LTVs took in Tarawa. Again IMHO the most vulnerable for those APCs would be if thei try to reach orbit again, as then they must spend the full time said in Traveller (world size in hours, IIRC), but to land I guess they can be quite faster, also using free fall and low grav activation.
About the decoys, nothing forbids them to be droped together with the troops. Just a more or less antropomorph bag, resistent enough to sustain a few minutes of free-fall and filled with warm water to fool IR could gain you some time, and free falling troops won't need much to reach low altitudes, where they can begin maneuver.
And about Price, if your troops are already equiped with grav belt (as I envision most of those high-tech troops), any cost of capsules is over usual costs, not instead of it.
Not sure what Traveller is assuming, but there's way too many points and things sticking out on a BD trooper falling into atmo. Those things 1) heat up more rapidly and to a higher temperature than other surfaces,
That does not happen to HALO troops, and they are not equiped with anything like CA or BD to absorb the heat or protect from it.
and 2) make you un-aerodynamic so you tumble.
All men jumping in paradrop are un-aerodinamic, and yet they don't thrumble as much as you say, or they learn to control this trumbling. CA and BD are human form, so I don't envision they as having much more problema tan a unequiped man (more or less like the man making the record jump Cryton told us about, as he was in vacc suit like equipement).
There's also the issue of the trooper's gear - like weapons - heating up - rounds cooking off (or melting) and such.
(Actually, a gauss weapon might have problems with all the plasma around it if it weren't in a capsule: might generate electromagnetic effects that could disable or "cook off" the rounds in the magazine.)
Such delicate weapons could be protected. IIRC some pratroopers in WWII carried most of their equipment in bags hanging under them, and that could also be used, using protecting boxes instead of bags. I guess this could even help to avoid the trumbling you told about, but I'm not an expert.
In any case (grav belts or drop capsules), one important thing about jump troops must be the unit cohesion above small units, as they will probably fight quite intermingled in this sense due to individual troopers dispersion, at least on the first hours (even days) after landing.